Crude oil

Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil stocks increased

Recently, the global oil demand has shown obvious non-synchronization. From a regional perspective, Asia-Pacific demand is significantly stronger than Europe and the United States. Consumption in China, India, and Japan continues to recover, and refinery replenishment momentum is strong. Dubai after November, the performance was the strongest among the three benchmark oils, it has the largest premium in recent months. On the contrary, the demand in Europe and the United States is still subject to the suppression of Covid-19, and the operation of refineries remains low. At present, European gasoline floating warehouse has increased to the high level in the year. The global demand presents a clear pattern of strong in the east and weak in the west. From the perspective of oil products, diesel consumption is currently better than gasoline. On the one hand, due to the recent increase in Asia-Pacific aviation consumption and kerosene heating consumption, on the other hand, gasoline consumption in the United States and other countries has entered the off-season. At the same time, due to Covid-19, the number of kilometers traveled has dropped by nearly 17% year-on-year. The asynchronous nature of the recovery in the global demand has made it more difficult to upgrade refineries, especially those in Europe and the United States, whose market share will continue to be squeezed by refineries in Asia Pacific.

Strategy: Neutral.

Risk: No

Iron Ore

Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil stocks increased

Recently, the global oil demand has shown obvious non-synchronization. From a regional perspective, Asia-Pacific demand is significantly stronger than Europe and the United States. Consumption in China, India, and Japan continues to recover, and refinery replenishment momentum is strong. Dubai after November, the performance was the strongest among the three benchmark oils, it has the largest premium in recent months. On the contrary, the demand in Europe and the United States is still subject to the suppression of Covid-19, and the operation of refineries remains low. At present, European gasoline floating warehouse has increased to the high level in the year. The global demand presents a clear pattern of strong in the east and weak in the west. From the perspective of oil products, diesel consumption is currently better than gasoline. On the one hand, due to the recent increase in Asia-Pacific aviation consumption and kerosene heating consumption, on the other hand, gasoline consumption in the United States and other countries has entered the off-season. At the same time, due to Covid-19, the number of kilometers traveled has dropped by nearly 17% year-on-year. The asynchronous nature of the recovery in the global demand has made it more difficult to upgrade refineries, especially those in Europe and the United States, whose market share will continue to be squeezed by refineries in Asia Pacific.

Strategy: Neutral.

Risk: No

PTA

PTA: Polyester production and sales decreased again, pay attention to the new production capacity at the end of the month

Fuhua's 4.5 million ton overhaul announced. In December we change our expectation from rigid accumulation to destocking slightly. December.

In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advised to be cautions and hold the long position. For the strategy across the period, arbitrage opportunity is ready. For the risk, TA factory inspection and maintenance progress.

Natural Rubber

Rubber: Imports slow down, the port inventory continues to decline.

On December 15, the most active traded RU contract closed at 14,610 (-45) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 11,575 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of most active traded contract was -735 yuan/ton (-5); the open interest of top 20 active traded long positions was 89,382 (+751) lots, the open interest of top 20 active traded short position 130,383 (-1130) lots, and the net short position was 41,001 (-1881).

On December 15, the most active traded NR contract closed at 14,610 (-45) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,600 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,570. (-7.5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,555 (-10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most active traded contract was -331 (+61) yuan/ton.

As of December 11: the total inventory of the exchange was 163,249 (+9001) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 133,630 (+11380) lots. Raw materials: sheet rubber 59.73 (-7.76), cup lump 39.5 (+1), latex 49 (0), RSS3 64 (+1.82).

As of December 10, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 73.18% (-2.03%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 69.32% (-1.93%).

Viewpoint: With the re-stabilization of raw material prices in Thailand's main producing areas, futures markets have stabilized. The recent futures prices have followed the trend of raw materials more consistently. This is mainly due to the greater flexibility of changes on the supply side while the demand side is relatively stable during overseas peak seasons. However, the recent quarter-on-quarter weakness on the demand side has also dragged down the price of rubber. The latest data released yesterday showed that the domestic Qingdao port inventory continued to deplete, mainly due to the decline in the import demand after the recent slowdown in domestic arbitrage demand, resulting in a decrease in storage. The continued decline in inventory still provides strong support for futures prices. However, it is suggested to hold the current position in the short term before the demand recovered.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: a substantial increase in production, continued accumulation of inventories, a decrease in demand.

Copper

Copper

LME copper prices fluctuate and closed at US$7,807/ton, up by US$29/ton, an increase of 0.37%, and decreased from 6834 lots to 315,000 lots

【Important Information】

1. US Senate Majority Leader McConnell admitted on Tuesday that Biden was elected president and said that Congress will not adjourn without passing a stimulus package. It is reported that Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi and McConnell plan to have a second meeting in the evening.

2. News on Covid-19: US FDA staff reported that Moderna Covid-19 vaccine is safe, and the New York Times said the FDA is expected to approve the emergency use authorization for Moderna vaccine on Friday. It is reported that European Union intends to approve Pfizer's vaccine on December 23. Merkel hinted that Germany's closure may be extended beyond early January. New York may resume closure after Christmas.

【Trading Strategy】

1. There are many macro-positive factors that have supported the rise in copper prices. However, copper prices have digested most of the positives. Approaching the end of the year, there is an increasing in the short positions, premium was reduced sharply, it may fluctuate sharply in the short term.

2. Arbitrage: Hold the current position.

3. Options: Short on cross-market options, CU2102-C-60000, CU2102-P-54000. (For reference only)