Crude oil: Biden’s policy will suppress the U.S. oil industry
After Biden came to power, it was not good news for traditional energy industries such as the oil industry. In addition to canceling the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, it also suspended the auction of oil and gas exploration rights on federal land, attacking the oil industry on the grounds of environmental protection. It is believed that the U.S. petroleum industry’s policy and regulatory logic has undergone a fundamental change. In the future, Biden’s relevant policies may continue to exert efforts in restricting shale oil production, strengthening renewable energy policies, and canceling more pipeline approvals. After Biden takes power, the recovery of the U.S. shale oil industry will be more difficult. The current series of policies will have a greater impact on the North American supply side. However, if efforts are made in the future to strengthen renewable energy policies or promote clean energy, it is expected to also The suppression of U.S. refinery operations and downstream refined oil consumption will eventually lead to the long-term impact of weak supply and demand.
Strategy: Be cautious.
Risk: No (For reference only)
The price of iron ore futures increased, the position on I2105 contract closed at ¥1049.5 per ton, the spread of Iron 5-9 contract is 78. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port was ¥1,138 per ton, the discounted SSF price was ¥1203 per ton.
1. Mysteel: From January 18th to January 24th, China’s 45 ports of iron ore arrived volume was 24.369 million tons, a decrease of 2.998 million tons from the previous month; the total arrivals from the six northern ports were 11.352 million tons, a decrease of 4.249 million tons from the previous month. The total arrival volume of China's 26 ports was 23.347 million tons, a decrease of 3.07 million tons from the previous month.
2. Mysteel: In the survey of 28 steel mills in the Tangshan area, 7 steel mills have completed replenishment of imported mines, mainly steel mills that use long-term association and U.S. dollar goods; 18 steel mills have not completed replenishment. Most steel mills from 18 unfinished restocking steel mills are expected to have the last full trading week before the holiday. If the replenishment is completed according to the plan, 18 steel mills in Tangshan area will have available days for imported mines to 15 days or more after the Spring Festival, 6 steel mills will reach 10-15 days after the holiday, and only one steel mill will be replenished within 7 days after the holiday.
3. Mysteel: Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. disclosed that the company approved the management measures for futures hedging business and the 2021 hedging plan. In 2021, the company's largest hedging scale is 6 million tons of iron ore, 960,000 tons of coking coal, 480,000 tons of coke, 600,000 tons of scrap steel, 60,000 tons of ferroalloys, and 2.4 million tons of steel; The scale of the standing futures margin is 100 million yuan, and the hedging projects that require a margin of more than 100 million yuan need to be submitted to the board of directors for deliberation and can only be implemented after obtaining the approval from the board of directors .
1. At present, the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports is 124.38 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, there is an increase in Brazil and a decrease in Australia. In the six northern ports of Diangang, there are a large number of medium and high grade fine ore deposits, while the remaining varieties are all down. MNPJ stocks have increased for three consecutive weeks. The new phase of the shipment data from Port 19 in Australia and Brazil shows that the global shipment volume was 26.24 million tons, a decrease of about 1.2 million tons. Both Australia and Brazil have reduced their volumes, but non-mainstream shipments have increased slightly. At the same time, the recent arrivals in the port have begun to fall, dropping 3 million tons. In the later period, there will be maintenance plans for the berths in the Australia-Brazil port, which is expected to affect the total iron ore shipments about 2.44 million tons. On the demand side, the average daily molten iron output dropped slightly by 0.32 to 2.4255 million tons, and the average daily dredging port increased by 22.26 to 3.87 million tons, and the dredging port returned to the high level in the second and third quarters. After several weeks of replenishment, steel mill inventories have rebounded. At present, the supply of ball blocks is tight, and steel plants are gradually turning to low-quality ball resources. The current discounted spot warehouse receipts of iron ore are relatively large, and the space below is also limited. With the slow release of supply-side production capacity and the expected demand for next year, iron ore is still in a tight balance. The current discounted spot warehouse receipts of iron ore are relatively large and the space below is limited. Under the circumstance that the demand for next year is still acceptable, it is suggested to hold the long positions on iron ore.
2. Arbitrage: Opportunity on Iron ore 5/9 (for reference only)
PTA: Fujian Baihong's new equipment is gradually put into production, Ningbo Yisheng is ready for maintenance.
In January, under the background of Yisheng Ningbo's inspection and maintenance and the seasonal decline of polyester, the inventory was slightly accumulated. Seasonal accumulation became more obvious in February. In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advised to be neutral, arbitrage opportunity is ready. For the risk, the seasonal overhaul of polyester and the sustainability of gasoline premium on the supply and demand
Rubber: Raw material prices have fallen, and rubber prices have fluctuated and adjusted
On Jan 25, the most active traded RU contract closed at 14,260 (-120) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 11,725 (-25) yuan/ton, the basis of most active traded contract was -335 yuan/ton (-5); the open interest of top 20 active traded long positions was 93,228 (-3116) lots and the short position was 145098 (-2930) ,net short position was 51,870 (+186).
On Jan 25, the most active traded NR contract closed at 10,505 (-130) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,635 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,597.5 (-5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,560 (-5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most active traded contract was -393 (+129) yuan/ton.
As of Jan 22 the total inventory of the exchange was 174,664 (+832) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 166,750 (+2880) lots. Raw materials: sheet rubber 53.59 (-1.96), cup lump 38.8 (-0.70), latex 42 (-4), RSS3 55.39 (-2.46).
As of Jan 21, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 67.95% (-2.1%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 65.95% (-1%).
Viewpoint: Near the Spring Festival, the downstream operating rate showed a downward trend, combined with the development of the epidemic at home and abroad, making the recent rubber price trend weak. With the release of peak season output, raw material prices continued to fall in Thailand’s main producing areas starting last week. The price of raw materials dropped significantly yesterday, and the cost-side support of rubber prices has slowed. At present, rubber is still a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still support on the supply side, And under the main line of demand recovery after the year, the rubber price is expected to maintain strong fluctuations in the mid-line, but due to the high absolute inventory in China, it takes time to digest, and it may maintain a shock trend in the short term.
Strategy: Be neutral
Risks: a substantial increase in production, continued accumulation of inventories, a decrease in demand.
LME copper prices closed at $8005.5/ton, up by $19.5/ton, an increase of 0.24% and increased 4441 lots to 310,000 lots
1. Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places have recently introduced a new round of property market control policies, by increasing transaction costs and increasing supply in order to stabilize housing prices and stabilize expectations. Industry insiders predict that this move may be followed by some hot cities in order to consolidate the results of the previous property market regulation. Under the tone of "housing to live without speculation", continued policy increases will further curb speculation and strengthen expectations for maintaining the stability of the property market.
2. [Yellen was confirmed by the Senate as the first female Treasury Secretary of the United States] Yellen was confirmed by the United States Senate as the 78th Secretary of the Treasury and the first female Secretary of the Treasury. The Senate voted 84 to 15 on Monday to pass Yellen’s appointment, making her the first confirmed candidate for the cabinet of President Biden. According to people familiar with the matter, she will serve in the Treasury Department later local time, becoming the second person in U.S. history to serve as both the chairman of the Federal Reserve and the secretary of the Treasury.
3. US President Biden said that he is open to adjusting the $1.9 trillion stimulus package and hopes to win the support of both parties. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that he will strive to pass a new round of bailout bill before mid-March at the latest.
1. Copper inventory is still very low now, and it is still going to destock in the traditional warehouse season. In January last year, the world (three major exchanges + copper stocks in bonded areas) totaled 110,000 tons of warehouses. So far this year, 50,000 tons of warehouses have been destocked. Expectations for warehouses in the first quarter are not strong. In the short term, copper prices are unlikely to fall. Funds are more cautious, and copper prices may maintain a volatile trend.
2. Arbitrage: There will be some problems when importing copper to the port from January to February. The Chilean terminal is affected by waves and the container capacity is suppressed by the epidemic and the spot is still tight. The epidemic in Malaysia has worsened and the import of recycled copper is also facing tightening. The seasonal accumulation in the first quarter of this year may not be as good as in previous years, and it is not recommended to consider monthly reverse arbitrage. After consumption resumes after the Spring Festival, arbitrage can be considered.
3.Options: Short on cross market option: CU2103-C-61000 and CU2103-P-54000 (For reference only)