Crude oil

Crude oil: the market pays attention to Iranian oil trends

At present, China’s import of Iranian oil is still the focus of the market’s attention. According to previous calculations by institutions such as Kpler, China’s recent imports of Iranian oil are as high as 800,000 barrels per day, which is higher than the current smuggled exports of Iranian oil of about 500,000 barrels per day. The difference is mainly due to Iran’s inventory of goods in a third country before. The current high crude oil inventory in China casts a shadow on the crude oil market. The market is worried that the inventory may be limited to digestion after the refinery overhaul, which will drag down the procurement effort. From the perspective of inventory structure, the current high inventory of imported Iranian crude oil is mainly from Shandong local refinery. The main business has been continuously destocking since the third quarter of last year. Local refineries may be mainly based on economic considerations, but they are mainly engaged in the possibility of importing large quantities of Iranian oil. It is not highly sexual, which will make Sino-US relations more complicated. We believe that due to the influence of Iranian crude oil, the strength of refining the future is relatively weak, and there is still a rigid demand for replenishment in the main business. However, due to Saudi Arabia's reduction of long-term cooperation supplies, it is expected that the crude oil spot market will continue to tighten in the future.

Strategy: Bullish cautiously; Brent intertemporal positive set or unilateral multi-match

Risk: Iranian oil returns to the market ahead of schedule, and oil-producing countries substantially increase production

Iron Ore

Iron Ore:

The price of iron ore futures increased, the position on I2105 contract closed at ¥1069 per ton, the spread of Iron 5-9 contract is ¥145.5 .

In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port was ¥1,124 per ton, the discounted SSF price was ¥1178 per ton.

【Important News】

1. Mysteel: From the evening of March 15 to 12:00 on March 16, a total of 14 blast furnaces in Tangshan will resume production with a total volume of 15,854 cubic meters. The average daily molten iron output will increase by 46,500 tons within 1-2 days. At present, there are a total of 57 blast furnaces in Tangshan area that have been overhauled (including capacity withdrawals, furnaces, wind breaks, etc., excluding load reductions), and the operating rate is 54.76%, which affects 147,100 tons of hot metal per day.

2. Mysteel: From March 8-14, the total shipment of Mysteel's new caliber Australia and Brazil iron ore was 23.415 million tons, an increase of 1.339 million tons from the previous month; the total shipment from Australia was 17.891 million tons, an increase of 2.725 million tons from the previous month; China’s volume was 13.590 million tons, an increase of 1.719 million tons from the previous month; Brazil’s total shipments were 5.524 million tons, a decrease of 1.386 million tons from the previous month.

【Trading strategy】

1. At present, iron ore port inventories continue to accumulate, but the extent has decreased. In terms of weight, the stock of coarse powder remains high; shipping data shows that the shipment of Australia and Pakistan increased by 1.34 million tons from the previous month, and the overall shipment was stable and rising; In terms of demand, Hebei is greatly affected by air pollution control policies. Many steel plants have production capacity reduction plans and have strong implementation efforts. At the same time, the recent increase in steel plant maintenance has resulted in a significant decrease in molten iron output, with an average daily molten iron output of 2.4060 million tons. Sparse port increased slightly, but it is still at a low level in previous years. The demand for hot coils at the finished product end is better, the elimination is within expectations, and the amount of thread accumulation is gradually decreasing; although the emergency response to heavy pollution weather has been lifted in Tangshan area, most of the long-process steel mill blast furnace equipment is still in a state of limited production. The specific time for the resumption of production has not yet been determined, and the production of molten iron in the later stage has become a key variable. Strategically, unilateral recommendations are mainly to hold the current position for the time being.

2. Arbitrage: lighten up the long position of heat coil and short position of iron ore; close the reverse arbitrage of iron ore 5/9.

(For reference only)

PTA

PTA: Yisheng Hainan resumes work, PTA processing fees continue to be underestimated

Balance sheet outlook: TA maintenance plans are concentrated in March-April, and TA processing fees are expected to bottom out for the first time, and TA processing fees are expected to bottom out; however, PX March-April months are slightly accumulated, and PX processing fees have been compressed under the background of over-increasing in the previous period.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: hold the current position. (2) Intertemporal: hold the current position.

Risks: the implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan from March to April, and the continued improvement of the supply and demand of aromatics by the gasoline premium

Natural Rubber

Rubber: Rubber: The contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, and futures prices continue to fluctuate

On March 16th, the most active traded RU contract closed at 15,150 (+35) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,750 (-25) yuan/ton, the basis of most active traded contract was -550 yuan/ton (-285); the open interest of top 20 active traded long positions was 74,312 (-2344) lots and the short position was 117534 (+297), net short position was 40,878 (-1204).

On March 16th, the most active traded NR contract closed at 11,900 (+15) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,795 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,715 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most active traded contract was 106 (+271) yuan/ton.

As of Mar 12th, the total inventory of the exchange was 175,162 (+78) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 170,780 (+2680) lots.

Raw materials: sheet rubber 62.89 (-0.11), cup lump 46.55 (0), latex 64.5 (0), RSS3 66.77(+0.11).

As of Mar 11, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 76.85% (+1.73%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.6% (+1.04%).

Viewpoint: The futures prices continued to fluctuate yesterday. Supported by the strong raw material prices, it is expected that there will be limited space under the rubber price. According to the latest understanding, delivery will be postponed in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, and normal delivery in other areas will be around April. Hainan is expected to be delivered in late March. Because the current rubber price is conducive to the release of production, the short-term or main concern is the large supply pressure after the opening of the domestic market in late March under the current non-standard price difference, and the weak macro environment, or the price of rubber may still be brought repeatedly. From a mid-line perspective, the global low production period will continue to April and May, while domestic and overseas demand shows a gradual recovery momentum; Both the domestic tire operating rate and the trend of NR can confirm that the current demand is still performing well, and the good supply and demand pattern may make the space under the rubber price limited.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: a substantial increase in production, continued accumulation of inventories, and a substantial decrease in demand.

Copper

Copper

LME copper prices closed at $8923.5/ton, down by $193/ton, a decrease of 2.12% and decreased 3683 lots to 314,000 lots.

【Important News】

1. The Fed's local time will issue monetary policy declarations and quarters forecasts on Wednesday afternoon, although the quantitative easing will remain unchanged, but the market has begun to digest the possibility of tightening the policy before the end of next year. Bond Leader Gros said that it is doing empty US debt, and it is expected that the inflation rate in the coming month will reach 3% -4%.

2. White House consultants revealed that Biden's tax reform plan will impose higher taxes on businesses and wealthy Americans, while providing relief for middle-class families.US Senate Minority Party Leader McConnad: Republican Party is impossible to support the purchase of a large-scale infrastructure plan for Biden by adding taxes. In addition, if the Democratic Party will abandon the lengthy debate program in order to promote the agenda of Biden, the Republican Party will take a revenge action.

【Trading strategy】

1. The Federal Reserve is about to release a monetary policy statement. Although the market expects that quantitative easing will remain unchanged, the market believes that the Federal Reserve may tighten its policy before the end of the year. In the short term, copper prices will maintain a volatile trend, and a trend market has not yet formed.

2. Arbitrage: At present, copper consumption has not fully recovered, and high copper prices have also restrained some copper consumption. The supply of copper scrap is abundant. Copper is still in the warehouse stage.

3. Options: sell put options, that is, sell CU2105-P-60000

(For reference only)