Iron ore: prices hit new highs, and regulatory control is expected to become stricter

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore 2109 contract was significantly increased the lots, finally closing at 1,100 yuan/ton, up 3.58%, or 38 yuan/ton. Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; Qingdao Port SSF reported 985 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton, and the price difference between high and low quality products continued to expand by 5 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton. The prices of the most actively traded continuous iron hit a new high since its listing, Platts daily trading price was at a high level, and the overall performance of spot and futures prices have been relatively strong recently.

The new version of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" has completed the stages of soliciting opinions and revisions. The final process is currently in progress. The ratio of steel capacity replacement will be significantly tightened. In the first quarter, Vale produced 68 million tons of iron ore (the market is expected to be 72 million tons), and the sales volume of iron ore was 59.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Rio Tinto produced 76.4 million tons of Pilbara iron ore and delivered 77.8 million tons in the first quarter, while analysts’ expectation was 77.6 million tons. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will carry out energy-saving supervision of key industries such as steel, and prohibit new production capacity increase of steel. The next step will be to actively take measures with relevant departments to promote the stabilization of raw material prices and prevent panic buying or stockpiling in the market. The Indian Iron and Steel Association predicts that Indian steel demand will increase by 22% to 100 million tons in 2021.

Generally speaking, domestically, due to limited production in a few cities which has not yet spread to the whole country, coupled with the peak season of steel demand and the high profits of steel mills. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has not yet issued a production restriction policy. As the delivery month approaches, the price of iron ore is likely to go out of the situation of repairing the basis upwards. The short-term performance of the market has been relatively strong, and it has now hit a new listing high, which has once again attracted the attention of government departments. However, with the arrival of environmental protection production limitation, the domestic iron ore balance sheet is expected to weaken. Last week, the exchange once again introduced a substantial position restriction system, and it is expected that later policy supervision and control will be tightened. In foreign countries, judging from the current ultra-high overseas steel prices, it is mainly due to the short supply of steel. At present, it is unlikely that overseas steel production capacity will increase significantly in the short term. Therefore, the demand for iron ore is unlikely to increase significantly beyond expectations. In terms of futures strategy, we recommend a combination of go long position of thread and hot coil and short position of iron ore, and in terms of options strategy, we recommend buying put options.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutral in the short-term, and to bearish in the medium- and long-term

Inter-period: None
cross-species: go long position of thread or hot coil and short position of iron ore

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buy put options

Concerns and risks: The intensity of production restriction and limitation at thread and hot coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for thread and hot coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

Rubber: Arrivals are small, and port inventory continues to decline

On April 20th, the most active traded RU contract closed at 13,915 (+260) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,250 (+250) yuan/ton, the basis of most active traded contract was -640 yuan/ton (+15); the open interest of top 20 active traded long positions was 100,815 (-4149) lots and the short position was 143,850 (-3711), net short position was 43,035 (+438).

On April 20th, the most active traded NR contract closed at 11,010 (+170) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,695 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,665 (+27.5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,635 (+30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most active traded contract was -366 (+4) yuan/ton.

As of April 16th: the total inventory of the exchange was 177,602 (0) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 174,140 (+2210) lots.

Raw materials: sheet rubber 61.12 (0), cup lump 42.7 (+0.1), latex 57.5 (0), RSS3 61.3 (+0.1).

As of April 15th, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 76.01% (-2.3%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.81% (-1.12%).

Opinion: Yesterday's futures market prices continued to rebound slightly, which was might mainly driven by crude oil prices and related commodities, including the stabilization of stock indexes. This made the market sentiment more optimistic and boosted rubber prices. The delivery has already begun in northern Thailand, and the phenological conditions of the production area are good and it is expected that later production will be released. At present, foreign countries are in the early stage of delivery and the output is small. It is expected that the price of raw materials will not fall sharply in the short term. Therefore, the support of the rubber cost side still exists. The limited domestic arrivals have also brought the latest port inventory to continue to decline slightly. The operating rate of tire factories dropped last week, and there may be concerns about short-term weakening of demand. Therefore, the supply and demand of rubber is weakly driven, and price fluctuations are expected to be the main factor.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: a substantial increase in production, continued accumulation of inventory, and a substantial decrease in demand, etc.

Crude oil: API data shows decline in US gasoline inventories

API released inventory data yesterday, among which the crude oil inventories increased slightly. For refined oil, gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. Overall, the data reflects the bullish trend for the whole market. The current fundamental data in the United States is relatively strong, especially the continuous recovery trend of downstream gasoline consumption. However, from a global perspective, China is still in a relatively weak fundamental pattern, especially the demand from local refineries still shows no signs of recovery. The current crude oil inventory in Shandong Port is still high, and some traders’ crude oil cargoes have not yet been sold, while local refineries' own plant inventory levels are also high, resulting in a decline in crude oil port congestion volume. In addition, China's diesel exports have returned to pre-epidemic levels, which has also made the Asia-Pacific region's refined oil resources loose and suppressed the profits of refinery factories. Overall, the crude oil market is still in a pattern of differentiated strong and weak regional fundamentals, and the United States is stronger than Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: None

Copper: There may be a certain need to purchase before May Day of China, but the current high copper price makes the transaction still sluggish

Spot market: According to SMM news, yesterday's spot market performance converged as before. Under the condition that the market remained above 69,000 yuan/ton, the downstream maintained a attitude of holding the current position, and market transactions were still relatively small. In the morning market, flat water copper began to be quoted at a discount of 130 yuan/ton, and there were few market inquiries. Some holders quickly adjusted the price to a discount of 140 yuan/ton. However, market inquirers increased, and some trade orders were lowered to a discount of 150 yuan/ton, resulting in small number of transactions were made. The supply of good copper and wet-process copper is relatively scarce, and holders have highlighted their reluctance to sell. Even if the market continues to fluctuate at a high level, the premium and discount quotations are still relatively strong. In the morning market, a small amount of ENM was reported at a discount of 100 yuan/ton. The quotations of other brands were firm at a discount of 80 to a discount of 60 yuan/ton. Guixi copper holders were the most reluctant to sell. The premium or discount was even reported to a discount of 30 yuan/ton. Buyers and sellers had large differences in prices. It is difficult to see a large number of transactions in the market. Also, it is difficult to find sources in the wet-process copper market. Brands such as UMMC, DMOOK, NORISK are quoted at a discount of 220-200 yuan/ton, which has passively become the price guide for wet-process copper.

Opinion: Yesterday, the US dollar index continued to fall within the day, while the night trading showed a certain rebound. However, copper prices are still relatively strong, and holders still have certain behaviors that are reluctant to sell, making actual transactions still relatively limited. However, the inquiry price has indeed risen from the previous day. At present, there may be a certain demand for purchases just before and downstream of May Day, which is superimposed on the current weak US dollar. Therefore, in the short term, there is still a relatively optimistic attitude towards copper prices for the time being.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish 2. Inter-market: postpone 3. Inter-period: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets; 4. Options: postpone

focus point:
1. When will the accumulation of inventories end
2. U.S. Treasury interest rate changes
3. The U.S. dollar index rebounded highly
4. Second quarter demand fell short of expectations

PTA: PX continues to be strong and to promote cost-driven PTA price increases

Balance sheet outlook: TA will continue to de-stock in April as expected, and TA processing fees are expected to bottom out; however, PX has accumulated slightly in April, and demand for oil adjustments has prompted PX to strengthen beyond expectations.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish. (2) Intertemporal: hold the current position.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：价格强势创新高，监管管控料趋严
观点与逻辑：
昨日铁矿石2109合约放量增仓突破上涨，最终收于1100元/吨，涨3.58%，涨38元/吨。青岛港PB粉报1235元/吨，涨29元/吨，青岛港超特粉报985元/吨，涨13元/吨，高低品价差持续扩大5元/吨至250元/吨。连铁主力价格创上市以来新高，普氏价格及日成交处于高位，期现价格近期总体表现偏强。
新版《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法》已完成征求意见、修订等阶段，目前正在走最后流程，钢铁产能置换比例将明显加严。淡水河谷第一季度铁矿石产量6800万吨（市场预计7200万吨），铁矿石销量5930万吨，同比增长15%。力拓一季度皮尔巴拉铁矿石产量7640万吨，交货量7780万吨，分析师预期7760万吨。工信部将对钢铁等重点行业开展节能监察，严禁钢铁新增产能，下一步将会同有关部门积极采取举措，推动稳定原材料价格，防范市场恐慌性购买或者囤货。印度钢铁协会预计2021年印度钢铁需求将增长22%至1亿吨。
总体来看，国内方面，由于目前仅个别城市限产，尚未普及到全国，叠加钢材需求旺季和钢厂高利润，工信部压产政策尚未出台，临近交割月，铁矿石价格容易走出向上修复基差的行情，短期表现偏强，目前已创上市新高，再次频繁引发政府部门关注。但随着环保限产和压产的预期到来，国内铁矿石平衡表走弱的预期明显，上周交易所再次出台大幅限仓制度，预计后期政策性监管管控将趋严。国外方面，从目前超高的海外钢价来看，主要是因为钢材出现供不应求，目前海外钢铁产能短期内大幅增加的可能性不大，因此，对铁矿的需求大幅超预期增加的可能性也不大。期货策略方面推荐多材空矿组合，期权策略方面推荐买入看跌期权。
策略：
单边：短期中性，中长期看空
跨期：无
跨品种：多材空矿
期现：无
期权：买入看跌期权
关注及风险点：
成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

橡胶：到港偏少，港口库存继续下降
20号，RU主力收盘13915（+260）元/吨，混合胶报价12250元/吨（+250），主力合约基差-640元/吨（+15）；前二十主力多头持仓100815（-4149），空头持仓143850（-3711），净空持仓43035（+438）。
20号，NR主力收盘价11010（+170）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1695（+25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1665美元/吨（+27.5），印尼标胶1635（+30）美元/吨。主力合约基差-366（+4）元/吨。
截至4月16日：交易所总库存177602（0），交易所仓单174140（+2210）。
原料：生胶片61.12（0），杯胶42.7（+0.1），胶水57.5（0)，烟片61.3（+0.1）。
截止4月15日，国内全钢胎开工率为76.01%（-2.3%），国内半钢胎开工率为72.81%(-1.12%）。
观点：昨天期货盘面价格延续小幅反弹格局，或主要受到原油价格以及周边商品的带动，包括股指的企稳，使得市场氛围偏暖，带来胶价的提振。泰国北部已经开割，产区物候条件不错，预计后期产量将陆续释放。目前国外内处于开割初期，产量较少，预计原料价格短期难以大幅下行，因此，橡胶成本端支撑仍存。国内到港量有限，也带来最新的港口库存仍在继续小幅下降。上周轮胎厂开工率回落，或有需求短期环比走弱的担忧，因此，橡胶供需驱动偏弱，预计价格震荡为主。
策略：中性
风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求明显回落等。

原油：API数据显示美国汽油库存下降
昨日API公布库存数据，其中原油库存小幅增加，成品油方面，汽油库存下降，馏分油库存增加，总体来看数据仍偏利多，当前美国的基本面数据表现相对强劲，尤其是下游汽油消费的复苏趋势依然延续，但从全球角度来看，目前中国仍然处于相对疲软的基本面格局中，尤其是地方炼厂的需求仍没有复苏迹象，当前山东港口的原油库存仍旧居高不下，部分贸易商的原油货物仍未售出，而地方炼厂自身的厂区库存水平也偏高，导致原油疏港量下降，此外，中国柴油出口量恢复至疫情前水平，也使得亚太地区成品油资源偏宽松，压制炼厂利润，总体来看，原油市场仍处于地区基本面强弱分化的格局当中，美国强于欧洲和亚太。
策略：中性
风险：暂无

铜：五一前或有一定刚需采购 但当下较高铜价使得成交仍显寡淡
现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场和昨日表现趋同，在盘面维持在69,000元/吨上方运行的行情下，下游维持观望姿态，市场交投依旧较为清淡。早市平水铜始报于贴水130元/吨，市场询盘者寥寥，部分持货商迅速主动调价至贴水140元/吨依旧难见大量交投，但市场询价者增多，部分贸易买盘压价至贴水150元/吨少量成交。好铜和湿法铜市场上货源较为稀缺，持货商凸显惜售情绪，即使盘面持续高位震荡，升贴水报价依旧较为坚挺，早市听闻少量ENM报于贴水100元/吨货源入市即秒出外，其余品牌报价坚挺于贴水80-贴水60元/吨，贵溪铜持货商惜售情绪最为明显，升贴水甚至报至贴水30元/吨，买卖双方对价格分歧较大，市场难见大量成交。湿法铜市场难觅货源，在UMMC、DMOOK、NORISK等品牌报价于贴水220-贴水200元/吨，被动成为湿法铜的价格指引。
观点：昨日，美元指数在日内继续下挫，夜盘则是呈现出一定回升。而铜价依然相对偏强，并且持货商仍有一定挺价惜售的行为，使得实际成交仍相对有限。不过询价较此前一日确有一定回升。当下在五一节前下游或存在一定刚需采购的需求，叠加当下偏弱的美元，因此短期内对于铜价而言，暂时仍维持相对乐观的态度。
中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。
策略：
1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：内外盘反套；4. 期权：暂缓
关注点：
累库何时结束 2. 美债利率变化 3.美元指数反弹高度 4. 2季度需求不及预期
PTA：PX仍坚挺，支撑PTA价格上涨
平衡表展望：4月TA持续去库预期，TA加工费预期见底回升；然而PX4月小幅累库，调油需求促使PX超预期走强。
策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：观望。
风险：4月PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。