铁矿石：星火燎原势，高处不胜寒

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石2109合约缩量减仓高位震荡，最终收于1100.5元/吨，涨1.38%，涨15元/吨。青岛港PB粉报1239元/吨，涨4元/吨，青岛港超特粉报992元/吨，涨7元/吨，高低品价差持续缩小3元/吨至247元/吨。

昨日邯郸大气污染防治工作领导小组办公室发布《邯郸市2021年二季度重点行业生产调控方案》的通知，4月21日至6月30日，视全市空气质量和气象条件情况适时调整限产比例，12个重点行业600家企业为重点管控企业。相关监管部门将每天现场巡查，逐企核实，各企业需在4月30日前上报具体生产方案，初步估算二季度将影响该地区20%的钢铁产量。

总体来看，继唐山地区环保限产之后，昨日市场期待已久的邯郸环保限产方案终于落地，限产压产的政策如星星之火，逐渐呈现燎原之势。近期国内处于旺季的钢材去库速度持续趋缓，海外疫情再次出现恶化，铁矿石的需求预期继续走弱，连创历史新高的铁矿石价格恐将高处不胜寒，维持我们一直的观点不变，期货策略方面推荐多材空矿组合，期权策略方面推荐买入看跌期权。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多材空矿

期现：无

期权：买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

Iron ore: When the prices hit the new high, it is easier to get off and come down later

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore 2109 contract significantly shrank its lots and fluctuated at a high level, finally closing at 1,100.5 yuan/ton, up 1.38%, or up 15 yuan/ton. Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,239 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; Qingdao Port SSF reported 992 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, and the price difference between high and low quality products continued to narrow by 3 yuan/ton to 247 yuan/ton.
Yesterday, the Handan Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Leading Group Office issued a notice on the "Handan City's Key Industries Production Regulation Plan for the Second Quarter of 2021". From April 21th to June 30th, the production limit ratio will be adjusted in a timely manner depending on the city’s air quality and meteorological conditions. 600 enterprises in 12 key industries are key controlled enterprises. Relevant regulatory authorities will conduct on-site inspections every day and verify on a company-by-company basis. Each company needs to report specific production plans before April 30th. It is estimated that 20% of the region’s steel production will be affected.

On the whole, following the environmental protection production restriction in Tangshan area, the long-awaited Handan environmental production restriction plan has finally landed yesterday. The policy of restricting and limiting production is like a spark, gradually showing the trend of starting a prairie fire. Recently, the speed of domestic steel destocking during the peak season has continued to slow down, and the overseas epidemic has once again deteriorated. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to weaken. The continuous record high iron ore price may be extremely high and come down later. Maintaining our previous views, we recommend a combination of go long position of thread and hot coil and short position of iron ore, and in terms of options strategy, we recommend buying put options.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Cautiously bearish

Inter-period: None

cross-species: go long position of thread or hot coil and short position of iron ore

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buy put options

Concerns and risks: The intensity of production restriction and limitation at thread and hot coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for thread and hot coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.


橡胶：国内原料有限，胶价下方受支撑

21号，RU主力收盘13910（-5）元/吨，混合胶报价12250元/吨（0），主力合约基差-560元/吨（+80）；前二十主力多头持仓98070（-2745），空头持仓140538（-3312），净空持仓42468（-567）。

21号，NR主力收盘价11010（0）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1695（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1670美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1635（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-375（-10）元/吨。

截至4月16日：交易所总库存177602（0），交易所仓单174140（+2210）。

原料：生胶片61.12（0），杯胶42.7（0），胶水57.5（0)，烟片61.4（+0.1）。

截止4月15日，国内全钢胎开工率为76.01%（-2.3%），国内半钢胎开工率为72.81%(-1.12%）。

观点：昨天期货盘面价格偏强震荡，当前的反弹格局延续。国内到港量有限，以及下游拿货的重新增加带来最新的港口库存仍在继续小幅下降。泰国北部已经开割，产区物候条件不错，预计后期产量将陆续释放。而国内海南产区开割正常，云南因橡胶树白粉病影响，或将推迟到5月中旬全面开割，当前工厂可用原料偏少，开工率不及往年同期的一半，云南库存近期也出现了加速下行。短期对橡胶下方产生较强支撑。供应逐步增加，使得橡胶供需驱动偏弱，预计价格反弹空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求明显回落等。

Rubber: domestic raw materials are limited, and rubber prices are supported

On April 21st, the most active traded RU contract closed at 13,910 (-5) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,250 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of most active traded contract was -560 yuan/ton (+80); the open interest of top 20 active traded long positions was 98,070 (-2745) lots and the short position was 140,538 (-3312), net short position was 42,468 (-567).

On April 21st, the most active traded NR contract closed at 11,010 (0) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,695 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,680 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,635 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most active traded contract was -375 (-10) yuan/ton.

As of April 16th: the total inventory of the exchange was 177,602 (0) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 174,140 (+2210) lots.

Raw materials: sheet rubber 61.12 (0), cup lump 42.7 (+0.1), latex 57.5 (0), RSS3 61.4 (+0.1).

As of April 15th, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 76.01% (-2.3%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.81% (-1.12%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the market price of futures fluctuated strongly, and the current rebound pattern continued. The limited domestic arrivals and the re-increase of downstream cargoes have brought the latest port inventory to continue to decline slightly. The delivery has already begun in northern Thailand, and the phenological conditions of the production area are good. It is expected that the production will be released in the later period. The delivery of domestic production area in Hainan is normal. Due to rubber tree powdery mildew in Yunnan, the full delivery may be postponed to mid-May. Currently, the available raw materials of the factory are relatively small, and the operating rate is less than half of the same period in previous years. Yunnan's inventory has also seen an accelerated decline recently. Rubber prices will be supported in the short term. The gradual increase in supply has weakened the supply and demand drive of rubber, and the room for price rebound is expected to be limited.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: a substantial increase in production, continued accumulation of inventory, and a substantial decrease in demand, etc.

原油：印度疫情引发担忧，油价表现偏弱

昨日EIA公布库存数据，其中原油库存增幅超出市场预期，但汽油库存增加幅度依然偏低，当前美国市场的基本面依然相对坚挺，近期美国交通部数据也显示周度跨州出行公里数相对2019年已经在4月份实现了同比正增长，汽油消费复苏的势头依然有所延续，近期油价下跌主要来自对印度疫情的担忧，印度新增感染大幅增加导致政府重新封城，但从现货交易员反馈的情况来看，印度最大的炼油企业印度石油和信诚工业在西非油等现货市场的购买依然持续，没有明显缩减，而部分印度地炼出现小幅缩减，因此目前来看对石油市场的冲击暂时还相对有限，自去年四季度以来，各国封城与石油消费的线性相关性有所下降，因此我们认为印度疫情爆发目前对市场冲击有限，但会拖累全球石油需求复苏的节奏。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

Crude oil: India's pandemic raises concerns, oil prices perform weak

Yesterday EIA announced inventory data. Among them, the increase in crude oil inventories exceeded market expectations, but the increase in gasoline inventories was still low. The fundamentals of the current U.S. market are still relatively strong. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Transportation also shows that the number of weekly interstate travel kilometers has achieved a positive year-on-year increase in April relative to 2019. And the momentum of recovery in gasoline consumption has continued. The recent drop in oil prices is mainly due to concerns about the epidemic in India. The sharp increase in new infections in India has caused the government to re-close the city. However, based on feedback from spot traders, India’s largest oil refiners, Indian Petroleum and Xincheng Industrial, have continued to purchase in the West African oil and other spot markets without significant reduction, while some Indian refineries have slightly reduced. Therefore, the impact on the oil market is still temporarily relatively limited. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the linear correlation between city closures and oil consumption in various countries has declined. Therefore, we believe that the outbreak of the epidemic in India has limited impact on the market at present, but it will slow down the pace of recovery in global oil demand.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: None

铜：基本面变化相对有限，但偏弱美元仍使有色板块受益

现货方面：据SMM讯，周内现货市场表现稳定几无变化，活跃度始终难以提升，盘面高位回落小幅调整，但依然难以激发下游买兴，持货商挺价情绪强烈，买卖双方僵持持续。早市平水铜始报于贴水130元/吨市场难见大量交投，市场调价至贴水140元/吨，买盘接受度依旧不高，但大数持货商不愿再度调价，市场僵持之下实际成交寥寥，部分持货商换现情绪下少量调价至贴水150元/吨才略显成交。好铜和湿法铜报价同样没有太大/波动，外贸市场进口铜流入较少，好铜持坚于贴水70元/吨左右，贵溪铜延续惜售情绪，鲜少报价，持坚于贴水50元/吨附近。湿法铜报价同样坚挺于贴水230-贴水200元/吨，无奈下游谨慎观望情绪依旧，市场买盘力量有限。

观点：昨日，基本面变化相对有限。持货商挺价情绪依然较强，但下游对于当下铜价格的接受度依然较低。故此使得买卖呈现相对僵持的状态。不过有部分五一节前补库的需求仍然存在，叠加当下美元相对偏弱的格局，因此当下对于铜价格而言，暂时仍可维持相对乐观的态度。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：内外盘反套；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

累库何时结束 2. 美债利率变化 3.美元指数反弹高度 4. 2季度需求不及预期

Copper: Fundamental changes are relatively limited, but the weak US dollar still benefits the non-ferrous sector

Spot market: According to SMM, the spot market performance remained stable during the week. It was difficult to increase its activity, and the market prices fell back slightly from the high level. Also, it was still difficult to stimulate downstream buying interest. Holders had strong bidding sentiment and the stalemate between buyers and sellers continued. In the morning market, flat copper began to report at a discount of 130 yuan/ton. It is difficult to see a large number of transactions. The market adjusted the price to a discount of 140 yuan/ton. The buying acceptance is still not high, but most of the holders are unwilling to adjust the price again. Under the stalemate, the actual transaction was very few. Small number of transactions have been conducted, when some holders adjusted the price to a discount of 150 yuan/ton under the sentiment of cash exchange. The quotations of good copper and wet-process copper are also not too fluctuating. Imported copper inflow is less in the foreign trade market. Good copper remains at a discount of around 70 yuan/ton. Guixi Copper continues to be reluctant to sell, offering few quotations, and stays firm discount of around 50 yuan/ton. W-process copper quotations are also stable at a discount of 230-200 yuan/ton, but the downstream cautious sentiment of holding the current position remains, and the market's buying power is limited.

Opinion: Yesterday, fundamental changes were relatively limited. Holders' sentiment in holding prices remains strong, but the downstream acceptability of current copper prices is still low. As a result, trading has become relatively stalemate. However, there is still some demand for replenishment before May Day, which superimposes the current relatively weak US dollar pattern. Therefore, the current copper price can still maintain a relatively optimistic attitude for the time being.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish 2. Inter-market: postpone 3. Inter-period: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets; 4. Options: postpone

Focus point:
1. When will the accumulation of inventories end
2. U.S. Treasury interest rate changes
3. The U.S. dollar index rebounded highly
4. Second quarter demand fell short of expectations


PTA：PX仍坚挺，支撑PTA价格上涨

平衡表展望：4月TA持续去库预期，TA加工费预期见底回升；然而PX4月小幅累库，调油需求促使PX超预期走强。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：观望。

风险：4月PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: PX continues to be strong and to promote PTA price increases

Balance sheet outlook: TA will continue to de-stock in April as expected, and TA processing fees are expected to bottom out; however, PX has accumulated slightly in April, and demand for oil adjustments has prompted PX to strengthen beyond expectations.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: hold the current position.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.