铁矿：供需预期走弱，库存继续累积

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石2109合约放量加仓震荡，最终收于1091.5元/吨，跌0.46%，跌-5元/吨。青岛港PB粉报1234元/吨，跌5元/吨，折盘面1368元/吨。青岛港超特粉报985元/吨，跌7元/吨，折盘面1240元/吨。高低品价差扩大2元/吨至249元/吨。

近日唐山市丰瑞区采取加严减排措施。河北印发2021年全省生态环境工作要点：要求全省地级及以上城市细颗粒物平均浓度较2020年下降3%以上，优良天数比率达到71%左右。吉林省发改委拟开展2021年钢铁行业化解过剩产能核查工作。目前进驻8省的8个中央环保督察组均已进入下沉工作阶段。必和必拓2021财年铁矿石目标指导量2.76-2.86亿吨维持不变。昨日澳大利亚外长宣布撕毁中方同澳大利亚维多利亚州政府签订的“一带一路”备忘录和框架协议，中国神华宣布放弃澳大利亚煤炭项目。

总体来看，继唐山及邯郸环保限产方案陆续落地，限产压产的政策如星星之火，逐渐呈现燎原之势。昨日澳洲撕毁“一带一路”协议，中澳关系持续恶化升级，预计将增强我国政府对铁矿石的管控。近期长短流程的废钢日耗上升明显，持续对铁矿用量产生一定挤压效应，海外疫情再次出现恶化，铁矿石供需走弱预期不断增强，港口库存年初以来持续积累。继续维持我们一直的观点不变，期货策略方面推荐多材空矿组合，期权策略方面推荐买入看跌期权。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多材空矿

期现：无

期权：买入看跌期权

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

Iron ore: supply and demand are expected to weaken, inventories continue to accumulate

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the open interest of iron ore 2109 contract significantly increased, and the prices fluctuated, finally closing at 1,091.5 yuan/ton, down 0.46% or down -5 yuan/ton. The PB fine of Qingdao Port reported 1,234 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton at 1368 yuan/ton. Qingdao Port SSF reported 985 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton at 1,240 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low quality products widened by 2 yuan/ton to 249 yuan/ton.

Recently, Fengrui District of Tangshan City has taken stricter emission reduction measures. Hebei issued the main points of the province's ecological environment work in 2021: it is required that the average concentration of fine particles in cities at the prefecture level and above in the province be reduced by more than 3% compared with 2020, and the ratio of good days should reach about 71%. The Jilin Provincial Development and Reform Commission plans to carry out the verification work for the steel industry to resolve excess capacity in 2021. Currently, the eight central environmental protection inspection teams stationed in eight provinces have prepared their work. BHP Billiton's 2021 fiscal year iron ore target guidance volume of 276-286 million tons remains unchanged. Yesterday, the Australian Foreign Minister announced to tear up the "Belt and Road" memorandum and framework agreement signed between China and the Victorian government of Australia. China Shenhua announced that it would abandon the Australian coal project.

In general, following the implementation of the environmental protection production restriction programs in Tangshan and Handan, the policy of restricting production and suppressing production is like a spark, gradually showing a prairie fire. Yesterday Australia tore up the "Belt and Road" agreement, and China-Australia relations continued to deteriorate and escalate. It is expected that the Chinese government's control over iron ore will be strengthened. Recently, the daily consumption of steel scrap in long and short processes has increased significantly, which continues to have a certain squeezing effect on iron ore consumption. The overseas epidemic situation has deteriorated again, the weakening of iron ore supply and demand is expected to increase, and port inventory has continued to accumulate since the beginning of the year. We will continue to maintain our constant views, recommending a combination of go long position of thread and hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore, and in terms of options strategy, we recommend buying put options.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Cautiously bearish

Inter-period: None

cross-species: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buy put options

Concerns and risks: The intensity of production restriction and limitation at thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

橡胶：市场氛围带动，原料价格小幅回升

22号，RU主力收盘13,990（+80）元/吨，混合胶报价12,250元/吨（0），主力合约基差-390元/吨（+170）；前二十主力多头持仓98671（+601），空头持仓141,994（+1456），净空持仓43,323（+855）。

22号，NR主力收盘价11,055（+45）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1,705（+10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1,675美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1,645（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-379（-4）元/吨。

截至4月16日：交易所总库存177,602（0），交易所仓单174,140（+2210）。

原料：生胶片61.12（0），杯胶43.15（+0.45），胶水58（+0.5)，烟片61.85（+0.45）。

截止4月15日，国内全钢胎开工率为76.01%（-2.3%），国内半钢胎开工率为72.81%(-1.12%）。

观点：昨天期货盘面价格维持偏强震荡，在当下供应增加有限，而需求相对旺盛的阶段，库存处于去化的季节性阶段，使得价格受支撑。国内下游轮胎厂开工率有小幅下降，但总体开工率仍处于偏高位置，带来下游原料消化较快，叠加到港量有限，港口库存仍在继续小幅下降。泰国北部已经开割，产区物候条件不错，预计后期产量将陆续释放。而国内海南产区开割正常，云南因橡胶树白粉病影响，或将推迟到5月中旬全面开割，当前工厂可用原料偏少，开工率不及往年同期的一半，云南库存近期也出现了加速下行。短期对橡胶下方产生较强支撑。供应量没有大量释放之前，预计胶价有望维持强势。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求明显回落等。

Rubber: driven by the market sentiment, raw material prices rebounded slightly

On April 22, the most active traded RU contract closed at 13,990 (+80) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,250 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of most active traded contract was -390 yuan/ton (+170); the open interest of top 20 active traded long positions was 98,671 (+601) lots and the short position was 141,994 (+1456), net short position was 43,323 (+855).

On April 22, the most active traded NR contract closed at 11,055 (+45) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,705 (+10) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,675 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,645 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most active traded contract was -379 (-4) yuan/ton.

As of April 16th: the total inventory of the exchange was 177,602 (0) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 174,140 (+2210) lots.

Raw materials: sheet rubber 61.12 (0), cup lump 43.15 (+0.45), latex 58 (+0.5), RSS3 61.85 (+0.45).

As of April 15th, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 76.01% (-2.3%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.81% (-1.12%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the futures market price remained a trend of strong fluctuation at a high price level. In the current period of limited supply increase and relatively strong demand, the inventory is in the seasonal phase of de-stocking, which supports the prices. The operating rate of domestic downstream tire factories has declined slightly, but the overall operating rate is still at a high level, which has brought about the rapid digestion of downstream raw materials. Also, coupled with the limited port arrivals, the port inventory continues to decline slightly. The delivery has already begun in northern Thailand, and the phenological conditions of the production area are good. It is expected that the production will be released in the later period. In the domestic Hainan production area, the delivery is normal. Due to rubber tree powdery mildew in Yunnan, the full delivery may be postponed to mid-May. Currently, the available raw materials of the factory are relatively small, and the operating rate is less than half of the same period in previous years. Yunnan's inventory has also recently accelerated to decline, resulting in short-term strong support to the rubber. Before a large amount of supply is released, rubber prices are expected to remain strong.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: a substantial increase in production, continued accumulation of inventory, and a substantial decrease in demand, etc.

原油：印度炼厂尚未减产，但成品油出口或增加

根据机构预测，受到疫情再度爆发以及封城影响，预计4月份印度石油消费环比降幅约12%，5月份相对3月份下降5%，相对的幅度分别约59万桶/日和12万桶/日，从目前印度炼厂的情况来看，基本没有实施临时性减产，只有MRPL炼厂减产6万桶/日，因为炼厂要完成政府规定的年度生产目标，且近期印度炼厂仍在大量采购6月份到货的中东原油，这与此前交易员反馈的信息较为一致，即印度目前尚未削减炼厂开工与原油采购，但由于终端需求下滑，未来印度汽柴油出口量将显著增加，并压制新加坡成品油裂解价差，印度疫情的再度爆发加剧当前东西区强弱分化的市场结构。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

Crude oil: Indian refineries have not yet cut production, but refined oil exports may increase

According to agency forecasts, affected by the outbreak of the epidemic again and the closure of the city, India’s oil consumption is expected to drop by about 12% in April from the previous month, and by 5% in May relative to March. The relative magnitudes of the decreases are about 590,000 barrels/day and 120,000 barrels/day, respectively. According to the current situation of Indian refineries, there is basically no temporary reduction in production. Only the MRPL refinery has reduced production by 60,000 barrels per day, because the refinery has to complete the annual production target set by the government. In addition, Indian refineries recently are still purchasing large quantities of Middle Eastern crude oil that arrived in June. This is relatively consistent with the information previously reported by traders, that is, India has not yet reduced refinery operations and crude oil extraction. However, due to the decline in terminal demand, India’s gasoline and diesel exports will increase significantly in the future, and will suppress Singapore’s refined oil cracking spreads. The resurging epidemics in India intensifies the current differentiated strong and weak market structure in the east and west regions.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: None

铜：下游对当下价格认可度较低 现货成交相对僵持

现货方面：据SMM讯，平水铜自早市开始继续盘桓于贴水140-130元/吨，依然是贴水150元/吨附近能吸引部分的贸易买盘，但成交相当有限。为吸引贸易买盘，好铜持有者报价略有松口，CCC-P报价略有调整至贴水80元/吨左右，金川大板可压价至贴水100-90元/吨，贵溪铜继续维持惜售高价状态，维稳于贴水60-50元/吨的高位。为了增加下游的入市参与度，持货商将PASAR、UMMC、保加利亚等牌子主动降至贴水220-200元/吨，湿法铜可选择的流出货源品牌依然很少，今日闻有CMCC、MB可调降至贴水250元/吨左右，但成交依旧稀少。

观点：昨日，欧元区央行利率决议结果如期维稳，并且主席拉加德也强调并未开始讨论缩减购债规模的事宜，因此当下主要经济体宽松货币政策的导向仍不会轻易改变。在现货方面，昨日部分持货商有出现了一定让渡升贴水以求出货的情况，但因为当下下游对于价格认可度很低，因此实际成交依然羸弱。目前重点关注下周的节前刚需补库情况。当下时点上，仍以谨慎偏多的态度对待。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：内外盘反套；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

累库何时结束 2. 美债利率变化 3.美元指数反弹高度 4. 2季度需求不及预期

Copper: Downstream has low recognition of current prices, and spot transactions are relatively deadlocked

Spot market: According to SMM, flat copper continued to trade at a discount of 140-130 yuan/ton since the morning market. It is still at a discount of 150 yuan/ton that can attract some trade buying, but the transaction is quite limited. In order to attract trade buying, the quotations of good copper holders were slightly loosened. The CCC-P quotation was slightly adjusted to a discount of around 80 yuan/ton, the price of JNMC copper could be reduced to a discount of 100-90 yuan/ton, and Guixi copper continues to maintain the state of reluctance to sell high prices and maintain stability at a high discount of 60-50 yuan/ton. In order to increase downstream participation in the market, holders have voluntarily reduced PASAR, UMMC, Bulgaria and other brands to a discount of 220-200 yuan/ton. It is reported today that CMCC and MB can be adjusted to a discount of around 250 yuan/ton, but transactions are still scarce.

Opinion: Yesterday, the euro zone central bank's interest rate decision was stabilized as expected, and Chairman Lagarde also emphasized that he has not started discussing the issue of reducing the scale of bond purchases. Therefore, the current orientation of the loose monetary policy of major economies will not be easily changed. In terms of spot stocks, some holders appeared willing to adjust premiums and discounts for shipments yesterday, but because the downstream price recognition is very low, the actual transaction is still weak. At present, we will focus on the situation of replenishment just before the holiday next week. At the moment, we would hold a attitude to be cautiously bullish.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish 2. Inter-market: postpone 3. Inter-period: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets; 4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. When will the accumulation of inventories end

2. U.S. Treasury interest rate changes

3. The U.S. dollar index rebounded highly

4. Second quarter demand fell short of expectations

PTA：降价促销，产销放量

平衡表展望：4月去库幅度较大，逐步进入5月库存平稳阶段，PTA加工费区间震荡；然而PX5月偏走平，关注调油需求促使PX超预期走强

策略建议：（1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：观望。

风险：4月PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: promotion through price reduction, high production and sales volume

Balance sheet outlook: In April, the destocking rate was relatively large, gradually entering the stable stage of inventory in May, and the PTA processing fee was fluctuating; however, PX was flat in May, and attention to the demand for oil adjustment prompted PX to strengthen beyond expectations.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: wait-and-see (2) Intertemporal: wait-and-see.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.