铁矿：钢协发声矿价过于高，四大矿山发货连续增

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石2109合约全天缩量减仓震荡上行，最终收于1158.5元/吨，涨幅1.89%，上涨14点，减仓2.83万手。青岛港PB粉报1306元/吨，涨8元/吨，折盘面1447元/吨，主力合约基差289；超特粉报1015元/吨，涨5元/吨，折盘面1273元/吨，基差114，近月已经处于平水或略升水。港口现货成交126万吨，环比下降19万吨。高低品价差扩大3元/吨至291元/吨，继续创新高。

昨日钢协再度发声，明确下一步钢铁行业要采取有效措施加大国内外铁矿石的开发开采力度，提高钢铁工业的资源保障能力，遏制铁矿石价格不断上涨的势头。从其中可以看出，当前对于铁矿石价格的大幅上涨行之有效的办法就是增加供给，但是短时间内想要见到明显效果，还是有较大难度，更多的是一个较为长期的规划。

发运方面，澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2473.2万吨，环比增加65.5万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1948万吨，环比增加253.7万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1493.0万吨，环比增加141.1万吨；巴西发货总量525.2万吨，环比减少188.2万吨。全球发运总量3237.4万吨，环比增加161.0万吨。发货量连续两周增加，但是发往中国比例反而下降。

此外，临近五一长假，钢厂也存在一定补库预期，所以近期矿石不论期货还是现货价格都是表现得较为强势。

总体来看，目前铁矿长短期逻辑略有不同，短期来看，受海外疫情好转各地复工复产影响，以及国内钢材大幅拉涨，钢材消费持续向好，钢厂高利润的影响，铁矿情绪面较为乐观，加之修复贴水，铁矿短期仍震荡偏强。但是长期来看，在碳中和、碳达峰大背景下，各地限产压产的政策如星星之火，逐渐呈现燎原之势，限产压产仍将作为今年交易核心逻辑，后期价格走势的关键，将在于国内的压产范围与幅度，如果限产不再扩大，则铁矿大体供需略过剩，而一旦压产范围扩大，则铁矿将进入到过剩状态，钢厂利润有望继续走扩。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，长期持偏空观点，单边可逢高位做空，空单需要结合市场的预期，进行调整，规避或回避贴水过大后的贴水修复带来的强力反弹，也可做多材矿比价，或是选择逢高买入远月虚值看跌期权。

策略：

单边：短期观望，长期中性偏空

跨期：多成材空铁矿

跨品种：多材空矿

期现：无

期权：虚值买入09看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

Iron ore: The Iron and Steel Association voiced that the ore price was too high, and the four major mines continued to increase shipments

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the open interest of iron ore 2109 contract shrank and fluctuated at high price level all day, finally closing at 1,158.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% or 14 points, and decreasing by 28,300 lots. Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,306 yuan / ton, up 8 yuan / ton, and discounted with 1,447 yuan / ton, the main contract basis was 289. SSF reported 1,015 yuan / ton, increased by 5 yuan / ton, with discounts of 1,273 yuan / ton and basis of 114. In recent months, it has been in a flat or slightly premium state. Port spot transactions were 1.26 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous week. The price difference between high and low quality products widened by 3 yuan/ton to 291 yuan/ton, continuing to record highs.

Yesterday, the Iron and Steel Association once again made it clear that the steel industry must take effective measures to increase the development and mining of iron ore at home and abroad, improve the resource protection capacity of the steel industry, and curb the rising trend of iron ore prices. It can be seen from it that the current effective way to curb the sharp rise in iron ore prices is to increase supply, but it is still more difficult to see obvious results in a short period of time, and it is more of a longer-term plan.

In terms of shipping, Australia and Brazil shipped 24.732 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 655,000 tons from the previous week. Australia’s total shipment was 19.48 million tons, an increase of 2.537 million tons from the previous week; of which 14.93 million tons were shipped from Australia to China, an increase of 1.411 million tons from the previous week. Shipments that departed Brazilian ports were estimated to drop 1.882 million tons week on week to 5.252 million tons. The total global shipment was 32.374 million tons, an increase of 1.61 million tons from the previous week. Shipments have increased for two consecutive weeks, but the proportion of shipments to China has decreased.

In addition, as the May Day long holiday approaches, steel mills also have certain replenishment expectations. Therefore, both futures and spot prices of ore have performed relatively strongly in the near future.

In general, the current long-term and short-term logic of iron ore is slightly different. In the short term, due to the improvement of overseas epidemic situation and the resumption of production in various regions, as well as the domestic steel products have skyrocketed, steel consumption continues to improve, resulting in steel mills’ high profits. The market sentiment of the iron ore is more optimistic, and coupled with the discount repair, the iron ore still fluctuates strongly in the short term. However, in the long run, under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaks, the policies of restricting production and suppressing production in various regions are like a spark, and gradually showing a prairie fire. Production restriction will still be the core logic of this year's transaction, and the key to later price trends will lie in the scope and extent of domestic production limitation. If production restrictions are no longer expanded, the supply and demand of iron ore will generally be slightly surplus. Once the scope of suppressed production is expanded, iron ore will enter a state of surplus, and steel mill profits are expected to continue to expand. In the future, more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level, a long-term bearish view should be held, and someone can unilaterally carry out short operations when the price is high. The short position orders needs to be adjusted or avoided the strong rebound caused by the repair of the discount after the discount is too large in accordance with market expectations, and it can also go long position of thread or hot coil by comparing the prices, or choose to buy at out-of-value far-month put options.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and neutrally hold the view of long-term bearish

Inter-period: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

cross-species: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buy at out-of-value 09 put options

Concerns and risks: The intensity of production restriction and suppression at the finished product end is not as good as expected, the demand for finished product end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

橡胶：到港有限，港口库存延续下滑

27号，RU主力收盘13810（0）元/吨，混合胶报价12050元/吨（0），主力合约基差-485元/吨（-450）；前二十主力多头持仓104079（+1549），空头持仓156685（+4587），净空持仓52606（+3038）。

27号，NR主力收盘价10970（-35）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1695（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1675美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1645（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-370（-49）元/吨。

截至4月23日：交易所总库存177542（-60），交易所仓单174080（-60）。

原料：生胶片58.69（-2.43），杯胶44（+0.1），胶水59.5（+0.5)，烟片63.55（+0.78）。

截止4月22日，国内全钢胎开工率为75.65%（-0.36%），国内半钢胎开工率为72.34%(-0.47%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价先抑后扬，价格较前一日变化不大。开割初期，泰国原料产量有限，近两天原料价格小幅回升。目前橡胶呈现供需两弱的格局，一方面，国内轮胎厂开工率连续两周下滑，主要因国内替换市场偏弱以及出口放缓，带来轮胎厂库存压力显现，短期原料采购需求或有所下降。另外则因国内外处于开割初期，且国内云南版纳地区橡胶树受白粉病影响，开割将延迟到下月中旬，带来产量增加有限，国内港口库存延续下降趋势。成本支撑下，预计胶价下方空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

Rubber: port arrivals are limited, and port inventory continues to decline

On April 27, the most active traded RU contract closed at 13,810 (0) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,050 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of most active traded contract was -485 yuan/ton (-450); the open interest of top 20 active traded long positions was 104,079 (+1,549) lots and the short position was 156,685 (+4,587), net short position was 52,606 (+3,038).

On April 27, the most active traded NR contract closed at 10,970 (-35) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,695 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,675 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,645 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most active traded contract was -370 (-49) yuan/ton.

As of April 23: the total inventory of the exchange was 177,542 (-60) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 174,080 (-60) lots.

Raw materials: sheet rubber 58.69 (-2.43), cup lump 44 (+0.1), latex 59.5 (+0.5), RSS3 63.55 (+0.78).

As of April 22, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 75.65% (-0.36%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.34% (-0.47%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price declined first and then rose, and the price did not change much from the previous day. At the beginning of the delivery, the raw material output in Thailand was limited, and the raw material prices rebounded slightly in the past two days. At present, there is a pattern of weak supply and demand of rubber. On the one hand, the operating rate of domestic tire factories has declined for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the weak domestic replacement market and the slowdown in exports, which has brought tire factory inventory pressure to appear, and short-term raw material purchase demand may decline. In addition, due to the early stage of delivery at home and abroad, and the rubber trees in the Banna area of Yunnan are affected by powdery mildew, the delivery will be delayed until the middle of next month, resulting in limited output increase, and continuous decline of domestic port inventories. Under the support of cost, it is expected that the downward pressure for the rubber price is limited.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: a substantial increase in production, continued accumulation of inventory, and a substantial decrease in demand, etc.

原油：欧佩克维持原定增产计划不变

昨日油价小幅反弹，总体来看有两方面的利多因素，一是昨日欧佩克决定维持此前增产计划不变，虽然近期印度疫情形势严峻，显示欧佩克对全球需求增长仍有信心，另一方面，BP公司称中国石油需求已经超过疫情前水平。当前市场关注焦点仍旧是需求复苏节奏，我们认为只要疫苗接种不出现黑天鹅以及不会出现全球范围内的封城的情况下，需求低点已过，往后来看需求复苏仍旧是相对确定，但受到疫情影响，全球需求复苏可能呈现冷热不均以及快慢不一的情况。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

Crude oil: OPEC maintains its original production increase plan unchanged

Oil prices rebounded slightly yesterday. Generally speaking, there are two positive factors. First, yesterday OPEC decided to maintain its previous production increase plan. Despite the recent severe epidemic situation in India, OPEC still has confidence in the growth of global demand. On the other hand, BP company said that China's oil demand has exceeded the level before the epidemic. The current market focus is still on the pace of demand recovery. We believe that as long as there is no black swan for vaccination and no global lockdown, the demand low has passed. Looking forward, the demand recovery will still be relatively certain. However, affected by the epidemic, the recovery of global demand may show differences in magnitude and speed.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: None

铜：铜价依然维持偏强格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日盘面再度冲高至72000元/吨附近，进一步抑制国内现货市场交易活跃度，早市平水铜下月票报价始于贴水230元/吨，市场买盘持续观望态度，部分持货商调价至贴水250-贴水240元/吨贸易买盘依旧难有兴致接货，在乏人接货的前提下，市场逐渐报至贴水270元/吨后，因盘面回吐部分涨幅，吸引部分贸易商压价买现抛期，逐渐出现成交，第二时段部分持货商逢高换现需求被再度压价，甚至听闻少量贴水280元/吨成交，现货市场表现畏高观望，与期货的火爆单边形成强烈反差。好铜和湿法铜报价随波逐流，早市好铜对下月票报价还能听闻贴水200元/吨报价，ENM，金川等品牌迅速调价至贴水230-220元/吨依旧难见大量成交。湿法铜由于货源依旧相对偏紧，市场总体仍以差铜报价作为指引，而差铜入PASAR之类多在贴水320元/吨左右，整体调价幅度不及平水铜，湿法铜报至贴水350-320元/吨，但下游畏高情绪严重，买卖双方对价格分歧较大，面对直线飙涨的铜价鲜少有接货者。

观点：昨日，铜价持续上涨，使得国内现货成交进一步被抑制。基本面变化实则有限，目前TC价格仍然维持低位，叠加目前南美至中国航段运费大幅飙涨，或许也在一定程度上抑制了进口矿的流入，而在需求方面，虽然当下由于下游对价格的低认可度，致使买卖双方陷入僵持，但是比较2季度为传统的消费旺季，故此若后市铜价呈现出回调，那么下游刚需补库力度或将加大。加之目前美元相对偏弱，而原油价格则是呈现逐步走高的态势，这对于通胀预期呈现出正向的传导，故此在当前背景下，铜价依然维持偏强态势。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外盘反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期

Copper: Copper prices still maintain a strong pattern

Spot market: According to SMM news, yesterday's market once again rose to around 72,000 yuan/ton, further inhibiting the activity of the domestic spot market. The quotation of flat copper in the morning market started at a discount of 230 yuan/ton, and buying side continued to hold the current position. Some holders adjusted the price to a discount of 250-240 yuan/ton. Trade buying orders are still reluctant to receive goods. Under the premise of lack of people to receive the goods, the market gradually reported a discount of 270 yuan/ton. Some of the gains were taken back, attracting some traders to buy spot and sell futures while suppressing prices, and transactions gradually appeared. In the second period, some holders were again depressed for their cash-exchange demand when facing high prices, and even heard a slight discount of 280 yuan/ton. The spot market was frightened to high price level and mostly hold the current position, which is in sharp contrast with the popular unilateral futures. The quotations of good copper and wet-process copper are following the trend. In the morning market, good copper can have a discount of 200 yuan/ton for the next month. Brands such as ENM and Jinchuan quickly adjusted their prices to a discount of 230-220 yuan/ton. It is still difficult to see a large number of transactions. As the supply of wet-process copper is still relatively tight, the market as a whole still uses the price of poor copper as a guide, and the price of poor copper into PASAR is mostly at a discount of about 320 yuan/ton. The overall price adjustment is not as good as that of flat copper. The quotation of wet-process copper is discount of 350-320 yuan/ton. However, the downstream fear of high price is serious, also the buyers and sellers have large differences on the price. In the face of the soaring copper price, there are few buyers.

Opinion: Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, further suppressing domestic spot transactions. Fundamental changes are actually limited. At present, TC prices are still at a low level. Coupled with the fact that the freight rate for the South American to China segment has soared, it may also inhibit the inflow of imported ore to a certain extent. On the demand side, the current low recognition of prices by the downstream causes buyers and sellers to be in a stalemate. However, compared with the traditional peak consumption season in the second quarter, if the copper price shows a correction in the market outlook, the downstream rigid demand for replenishment may increase. In addition, the current US dollar is relatively weak, while crude oil prices are showing a gradual upward trend, which presents a positive transmission to inflation expectations. Therefore, under the current background, copper prices still maintain a strong trend.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell and to be bearish

Focus point:

1. Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. Dollar index trend

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations

PTA：逸盛5月合约供应量再度缩减，PTA加工费快速走强

平衡表展望：5月库存平稳阶段或持续去库阶段，具体关注后续逸盛是否有更多额外检修计划公布；然而PX5月仅小幅累库，关注调油需求对PX的支撑

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多：观望。（2）跨期：观望。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: Yisheng's May contract supply has reduced again, and PTA processing fees have increased rapidly

Balance sheet outlook: In May, the inventory will be stable or continue to be destocked, and we will pay attention to whether there will be more additional maintenance plans announced by Yisheng; however, PX has only a small accumulation in May, focusing on the support for PX from the demand for oil blending.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish, wait-and-see (2) Intertemporal: wait-and-see.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.