铁矿：钢材税率调整落实，铁矿石基差走强

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石2109合约全天放量回调，日内走势减仓下跌，增仓反弹，多头仍然表现得比较积极，最终收于1139元/吨，跌幅1%，下跌19.5点，微幅增仓0.1万手。青岛港PB粉报1301元/吨，跌5元/吨，折盘面1442元/吨，主力合约基差303；超特粉报1010元/吨，跌5元/吨，折盘面1267元/吨，基差129。港口现货成交100万吨，环比下降26万吨。高低品价差持稳，维持在291元/吨的高位，假期临近，补库已接近尾声，市场交投情绪连续走弱，但贸易方面挺价情绪仍然较浓。

昨日国务院关税税则委员会公布了市场谈论已久的降低钢材出口退税事宜，部分出口退税由原来的13%下降至0，同时取消了钢坯，生铁等产品的进口关税，意在减少出口，增加进口来平抑国内压产带来的供应减量，如果得以实现，那么国内对铁矿石需求将明显下滑，矿石需求端状况岌岌可危。

总体来看，目前铁矿长短期逻辑略有不同，短期来看，受海外疫情好转各地复工复产影响，以及国内钢材大幅拉涨，钢材消费持续向好，钢厂高利润的影响，铁矿情绪面较为乐观，加之修复贴水，铁矿短期仍震荡偏强。但是长期来看，在碳中和、碳达峰大背景下，各地限产压产的政策如星星之火，逐渐呈现燎原之势，限产压产仍将作为今年交易核心逻辑，后期价格走势的关键，将在于国内的压产范围与幅度，如果限产不再扩大，则铁矿大体供需略过剩，而一旦压产范围扩大，则铁矿将进入到过剩状态，钢厂利润有望继续走扩。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，长期持偏空观点，单边可逢高位做空，空单需要结合市场的预期，进行调整，规避或回避贴水过大后的贴水修复带来的强力反弹，也可做多材矿比价，或是选择逢高买入远月虚值看跌期权。

策略：

单边：短期观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：多材空矿

期现：无

期权：虚值买入09看跌期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

Iron ore: Steel tax rate adjustments are implemented, and iron ore basis is stronger

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the open interest of iron ore 2109 contract retreated heavily throughout the day. The intraday showed a downward trend in lots and prices first, and then witnessed a rebounded upward trend. The buy long still performed relatively positively. The contract finally closed at 1,139 yuan/ton, down 1% or 19.5 points, with open interest slightly added 1,000 lots. Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,301 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, discounted of 1,442 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 303. SSF reported 1,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, discounted of 1,267 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 129. Port spot transactions were 1 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 260,000 tons. The price difference between high and low quality products remained stable, standing at a high level of 291 yuan/ton. The holiday was approaching and the replenishment was nearing the end. The market sentiment continued to weaken, but the sentiment of trade was still strong.

Yesterday the State Council’s Tariff Commission announced the long-talked-about issue of reducing steel export tax rebates. Some export tax rebates have been reduced from the original 13% to 0. At the same time, the import tariffs on billets, pig iron and other products have been abolished in order to reduce exports and increase imports to stabilize the supply reduction caused by domestic production restriction. If it can be realized, the domestic demand for iron ore will decline significantly, and the situation on the ore demand side will be precarious.

In general, the current long-term and short-term logic of iron ore is slightly different. In the short term, due to the improvement of overseas epidemic situation and the resumption of production in various regions, as well as the domestic steel products have skyrocketed, steel consumption continues to improve, resulting in steel mills’ high profits. The market sentiment of the iron ore is more optimistic, and coupled with the discount repair, the iron ore still fluctuates strongly in the short term. However, in the long run, under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaks, the policies of restricting production and suppressing production in various regions are like a spark, and gradually showing a prairie fire. Production restriction will still be the core logic of this year's transaction, and the key to later price trends will lie in the scope and extent of domestic production limitation. If production restrictions are no longer expanded, the supply and demand of iron ore will generally be slightly surplus. Once the scope of suppressed production is expanded, iron ore will enter a state of surplus, and steel mill profits are expected to continue to expand. In the future, more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level, a long-term bearish view should be held, and someone can unilaterally carry out short operations when the price is high. The short position orders needs to be adjusted or avoided the strong rebound caused by the repair of the discount after the discount is too large in accordance with market expectations, and it can also go long position of thread or hot coil by comparing the prices, or choose to buy at out-of-value far-month put options.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: hold the current position in the short-term, and neutrally hold the view of long-term bearish

cross-species: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buy at out-of-value 09 put options

Concerns and risks: The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

橡胶：开割初期，海外原料价格坚挺

28号，RU主力收盘13960（+150）元/吨，混合胶报价12200元/吨（-150），主力合约基差-635元/吨（-155）；前二十主力多头持仓103459（-620），空头持仓154178（-2507），净空持仓50719（-1887）。

28号，NR主力收盘价11095（+125）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1700（+10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1685美元/吨（+10），印尼标胶1655（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-362（-72）元/吨。

截至4月23日：交易所总库存177542（-60），交易所仓单174080（-60）。

原料：生胶片58.69（0），杯胶43.8（-0.2），胶水60（+0.5)，烟片63.89（+0.34）。

截止4月22日，国内全钢胎开工率为75.65%（-0.36%），国内半钢胎开工率为72.34%(-0.47%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价偏强震荡，价格重心小幅上移。海内外开割初期，产量增加有限，泰国原料价格坚挺，国内云南主产区原料价格小幅上扬。因国内云南版纳地区橡胶树遭受白粉病侵扰，开割率偏低，而海南原料正常释放，造成今年海南主产区原料低于云南。按照目前海南今干胶厂原料价格测算，RU盘面主力合约13500元/吨一线有较强支撑。目前橡胶呈现供需两弱的格局，但供应端偏少影响更大，带来国内港口库存延续下降趋势。6月主产区产量释放之前，预计胶价有望维持偏强震荡。

策略：谨慎偏多，短多参与

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

Rubber: In the early stage of delivery, overseas raw material prices were firm

On April 28, the most active traded RU contract closed at 13,960 (+150) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,200 (-150) yuan/ton, the basis of most active traded contract was -635 yuan/ton (-155); the open interest of top 20 active traded long positions was 103,459 (-620) lots and the short position was 154,178 (-2,507), net short position was 50,719 (-1,887).

On April 28, the most active traded NR contract closed at 11,095 (+125) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,700 (+10) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,685 (+10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,655 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most active traded contract was -362 (-72) yuan/ton.

As of April 23: the total inventory of the exchange was 177,542 (-60) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 174,080 (-60) lots.

Raw materials: sheet rubber 58.69 (0), cup lump 43.8 (-0.2), latex 60 (+0.5), RSS3 63.89 (+0.34.

As of April 22, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 75.65% (-0.36%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.34% (-0.47%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price fluctuated strongly at high price level, and the price center moved up slightly. At the initial stage of delivery at home and abroad, the increase in output was limited, the prices of raw materials in Thailand were firm, and the prices of raw materials in the main production areas of Yunnan rose slightly. As the rubber trees in Banna, Yunnan, suffer from powdery mildew, the delivery rate is low, and the raw materials from Hainan are released normally, resulting in lower raw materials in the main producing areas of Hainan this year than in Yunnan. According to the current raw material prices of Hainan Jingan rubber factory, the most-active contract of RU is 13,500 yuan/ton, which has strong support. At present, rubber presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, but the small supply side has a greater impact, bringing the continued downward trend of domestic port inventory. Before the release of production in the main producing areas in June, it is expected that rubber prices are expected to maintain strong volatility at a high level.

Strategy: cautiously bullish, go long position in the short term

Risks: a substantial increase in production, continued accumulation of inventory, and a substantial decrease in demand, etc.

原油：EIA数据偏利多，油价延续反弹

昨日EIA公布周度数据，数据整体偏利多，其中原油库存微幅增加，而成品油库存增幅远低于预期，汽油库存微增而馏分油库存降幅远超预期。从需求端来看，汽油方面近期不管是美国国内的流动性指标还是出行公里数均表现强劲，柴油消费方面新闻显示当前卡车用油也持续增加，主要受到财政政策刺激提振，而值得注意的是，当前美国汽柴油出口仍旧相对低迷，在拉美地区进口需求偏弱的情况下，当前美国炼厂提升开工较为谨慎，但如果后续成品油库存持续低位且炼厂利润维持，预计未来随着夏季出行旺季到来，美国炼厂开工率有望进一步增加。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

Crude oil: EIA data is in favor of positive market, oil prices continue to rebound

Yesterday, EIA announced weekly data, with the overall trend was in favor of positive market. Crude oil inventories increased slightly, while refined oil inventories increased much lower than expected. Gasoline inventories increased slightly while distillate oil inventories fell far more than expected. From the demand side, gasoline has recently performed strongly in both the domestic liquidity indicators and the number of kilometers traveled in the United States. News on diesel consumption shows that the current truck oil consumption has also continued to increase, which is mainly boosted by fiscal policy stimulus. It is worth noting that the current US gasoline and diesel exports are still relatively sluggish. In the case of weak import demand in Latin America, the US refineries are currently operating more cautiously. However, if subsequent refined oil inventories continue to be low and refinery profits remain, it is expected that the U.S. refinery operating rate is expected to increase further as the summer travel season arrives in the future.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: None

铜：议息会议后美元再度走弱 铜价维持强势

现货方面：据SMM讯，盘面回调近千元，下游市场买盘力量增强，市场交投活跃度同样有所改善带动升贴水止跌回暖。早市平水铜下月票报价始报于贴水230元/吨，部分持货商有换现需求，被压价至贴水250-240元/吨少量成交后，市场报价企稳于贴水230-220元/吨左右，下游刚需补库，市场成交尚可，尾盘甚至听闻少量贴水210元/吨货源报盘，市场情绪明显回暖。好铜与湿法铜报价同步止跌回暖，好铜报至贴水200-160元/吨，贵溪铜持货商甚至报于贴水150元/吨，重回挺价情绪。湿法铜货源少量持续的流入，早市报于贴水320元/吨后报价小幅走高，尾盘听闻ESOX等品牌报于贴水280元/吨附近。

观点：昨日，美联储利率决议一如既往维持不变，并且主席鲍威尔在讲话中还强调暂时不会考虑缩减购债规模，而这样鸽派的言论也使得美元指数再度大幅下挫。而在此过程中，金融属性相对较强的铜品种则是再度受益。而从基本面上而言，变化并不十分显著，因此在目前美元走势羸弱的格局下，铜价预计维持偏强态势。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外盘反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期

Copper: U.S. dollar weakens again after the meeting discussing the interest rate, while copper price remains strong.

Spot market: According to SMM, the market price has pulled back nearly 1,000 yuan, and the buying power in the downstream market has strengthened. The market trading activity has also improved, which has led to a rise in premiums and discounts. In the morning market, the monthly quotation of flat copper was at a discount of 230 yuan/ton, and some holders had a demand for cash exchange. After being pressed down to a discount of 250-240 yuan/ton, the market price stabilized at a discount of around 230-220 yuan/ton. The downstream just needs to replenish the warehouse, the market transactions are acceptable, and even a small discount of 210 yuan/ton is heard in the late trading, and the market sentiment is obviously picking up. The quotations of good copper and wet-process copper stopped falling and recovered simultaneously. Good copper reported a discount of 200-160 yuan/ton, and Guixi copper holders even reported a discount of 150 yuan/ton, regaining the sentiment of supporting the price level. A small amount of wet-process copper sources continued to flow in. In the morning market, the quotes rose slightly after a discount of 320 yuan/ton. In the late trading, it was heard that ESOX and other brands reported a discount of around 280 yuan/ton.

Opinion: Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision remained unchanged as always, and Chairman Powell also emphasized in his speech that he would not consider reducing the size of bond purchases for the time being. Such dovish remarks also caused the US dollar index to fall sharply again. In this process, copper varieties with relatively strong financial attributes have benefited again. From a fundamental point of view, the change is not very significant. Therefore, under the current pattern of weak dollar trends, copper prices are expected to remain strong.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell and to be bearish

Focus point:

1. Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. Dollar index trend

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations

PTA：逸盛5月合约减量预期推升PTA加工费

平衡表展望：5月库存平稳阶段或持续去库阶段，具体关注后续逸盛是否有更多额外检修计划公布；然而PX5月仅小幅累库，关注调油需求对PX的支撑。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：观望，9-1价差近期反弹幅度较大，等待高位布局反套机会。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: Yisheng May contract reduction is expected to boost PTA processing fees

Balance sheet outlook: In May, the inventory will be stable or continue to be destocked, and we will pay attention to whether there will be more additional maintenance plans announced by Yisheng; however, PX has only a small accumulation in May, focusing on the support for PX from the demand for oil blending.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: hold the current position, under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high prices appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.