铁矿石：产量增加消费好，工信压产促分化

上周在成材需求良好和板块整体向上的带动下，铁矿2109合约走出前高后低，冲高回落走势，收于1088..5元/吨，周环比跌1.45%，跌16元/吨。普氏指数上周五报186.5美元/吨，周环比上涨1.4美元/吨。上周青岛港PB粉报1288元/吨，周环比上涨47元/吨。超特报998元/吨，涨10元/吨。上周铁矿主港日均成交108.6万吨，周环比减40.6万吨。

从供应端看，据Mysteel统计全球发运总量3237.40万吨，环比增161万吨。其中澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2473.2万吨，环比增65.5万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1948万吨，环比增253.7万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1493万吨，环比增141万吨；巴西发货总量525.2万吨，环比减188.2万吨。上周日均疏港量303.44万吨，环比增19.04万吨。上周矿石供给端维持高位，且仍有增加空间，由于假期原因月末有集中疏港因素致使疏港量增加价位明显，不过此高水平的疏港量并非常态。

从需求看，据Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率80.08%，环比增0.65%，同比降7.55%；高炉炼铁产能利用率89.93%，环比增1.18%，同比增1.35%；钢厂盈利率90.04%，环比持平，同比持平；日均铁水产量239.38万吨，环比增3.14万吨，同比增3.61万吨；163家钢厂高炉开工率61.88%，环比上周增0.41%，产能利用率73.47%，环比增0.35%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为79.98%，较去年同期降4.24%，钢厂盈利率79.14%，环比持平。上周随着钢厂产能利用率和复工的增加的影响，铁矿石需求端呈现阶段性表现良好。

从库存来看，据Mysteel调研全国45港进口铁矿石库存为13026.69万吨，环比减293.51万吨，其中澳矿6638.52万吨，环比降81.58万吨，巴西矿3895.55万吨，环比降155.35万吨，球团矿451.98万吨，环比降35.65万吨，精粉889.04万吨，环比降18.82万吨，块矿1872.65万吨，环比降79.33万吨，粉矿9813.02万吨，环比降159.71万吨。港口库存自年初持续累库，劳动节前夕由于船期到货明显下降，以及即期备货原因港口库存出现短暂下降，后期仍将会是累库格局，且累库幅度将会越来越大。

总体来看，当前铁矿石近端表现较好，而远期根据政策推演将会出现一定的过剩格局，短期来看，受全球需求复苏以及超级宽松的货币政策影响，国外钢材暴涨，钢材消费持续向好，国内跟随上涨，叠加钢厂高利润，铁矿情绪面较为乐观，加之贴水修复，铁矿短期内走出了强势表现，但铁矿石需求的高峰即将到来，这将迅速扭转其供需格局。同时长期来看，在碳中和、碳达峰大背景下，各地限产压产的政策将逐步推出，时间点尚无定论，但是实施总量控制原则，时间紧任务重，更加突出矿石的供需矛盾，限产压产仍将作为今年交易核心逻辑，后期价格走势的关键，将在于国内的压产范围与幅度，如果限产不再扩大，则铁矿大体供需略过剩，而一旦压产范围扩大，则铁矿将进入到过剩状态，钢厂利润有望继续走扩。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，长期持偏空观点，单边可逢高位做空，空单需要结合黑色系市场的节奏和政策出台进行调整，规避或回避贴水过大后的贴水修复以及成材大幅上涨的带动带来的强力反弹，同时最为保险的策略是做多材矿比价。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性偏空，长期看空

跨品种：多成材空铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：虚值买入09看跌期权或卖出虚值09看涨期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

Iron ore: production increases and consumption is good, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology restricts production and promotes differentiation

Last week, driven by the good demand for thread and hot-rolled coil and the overall upward trend of the market, the iron ore 2109 contract went out of the previous trend which significantly increased and then went down, closing at 1,088.5 yuan/ton, down 1.45% on a week-on-week basis or 16 yuan/ton. The Platts Index reported at $186.5/ton last Friday, an increase of $1.4/ton on a week-on-week basis. Last week, Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,288 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. SSF reported 998 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Last week, the iron ore main port had an average daily transaction volume of 1.086 million tons, a decrease of 406,000 tons on a week-on-week basis.

From the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total global shipment was 32.374 million tons, an increase of 1.61 million tons from the previous week. Among which, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.732 million tons, an increase of 655,000 tons from the previous week. The total shipment from Australia was 19.48 million tons, an increase of 2.537 million tons from the previous week; of which 14.93 million tons were shipped from Australia to China, an increase of 1.41 million tons from the previous week. The total shipment of Brazil was 5.252 million tons, a decrease of 1.882 million tons from the previous week. Last Sunday, the average port congestion volume was 3.0344 million tons, an increase of 190,400 tons from the previous week. The iron ore supply side remained at a high level last week, and there is still room for increase. Due to the holiday season, there was a concentration of port congestion factor at the end of the month, which resulted in a significant increase in port congestion price. However, this high level of port congestion is not unusual.

In terms of demand, according to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 80.08%, an increase of 0.65% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 7.55%. The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 89.93%, an increase of 1.18% week-on-week and an increase of 1.35% year-on-year. The profit rate of steel mill was 90.04%, the same week-on-week and the same year-on-year. The average daily molten iron output was 2.3938 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 31,400 tons, an increase of 36,100 tons year-on-year. The blast furnace operating rate of 163 steel plants was 61.88%, an increase of 0.41% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.47%, an increase of 0.35% week-on-week. The utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 79.98%, which was 4.24% lower than the same period last year, and the profit rate of steel mills was 79.14%, the same week-on-week. Last week, with the impact of the increase in capacity utilization of steel mills and the resumption of work, the demand side of iron ore showed good performance in stages.

In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel's survey of 45 ports across the country, the imported iron ore inventory was 130.2669 million tons, a decrease of 2.9351 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the Australian number was 66.3852 million tons, which was a decrease of 815,800 tons from the previous week. The Brazilian figure was 38.9555 million tons, which was a decrease of 1.5535 million tons from the previous week. Pellets amounted to 4.5198 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 356,500 tons. The iron ore concentrate number was 8.8904 million tons, a decrease of 188,200 tons on a week-on-week basis. Lump ore reported 18.7265 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 793,300 tons, while fines stood at 98.1302 million tons, a decrease of 1.5971 million tons from the previous week. Port inventory has continued to accumulate since the beginning of the year. Before the beginning of Labor Day Holiday, due to the obvious decline of arrivals and short-term stocking reasons, port inventory has temporarily decreased. In the later period, the pattern of accumulation will continue to exist, and the extent of accumulation will increase.

On the whole, the current iron ore performance is relatively good at the near end, and a certain surplus pattern will appear in the long term based on policy deduction. In the short term, due to the recovery of global demand and the ultra-loose monetary policy, foreign steel products prices have skyrocketed and steel consumption continued to improve. Following the rise in China, coupled with the high profits of steel mills, the iron ore sentiment is more optimistic. With the additonal repair of discount, iron ore has shown a strong performance in the short term. However, the peak of iron ore demand is coming, which will quickly reverse its supply and demand pattern. At the same time, in the long run, under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaks, the policies of restricting production in various regions will be gradually introduced. The time point is still inconclusive, but the implementation of the principle of total control, tight time and heavy tasks, will highlight the supply and demand contradiction of iron ore. Limiting production will still be the core logic of this year’s transaction. The key to the later price trend will be the scope and extent of domestic restriction of production. If the limit of production is no longer expanded, the supply and demand of iron ore will generally be slightly surplus, and once the scope of limitation of production is expanded, then Iron ore will enter a state of surplus, and steel mill profits are expected to continue to expand. In the future, more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level. We recommend investors to hold the long-term bearish views, and go short positions when facing unilaterally continuous increases. The short orders need to be adjusted in accordance with the rhythm of the non-ferrous metals market and the introduction of policies to avoid the repair of the discount after the premium is too large and the strong rebound driven by the sharp rise in the thread and hot-rolled coil. At the same time, the safest strategy is to go long positions of thread and hot-rolled coil and compare the prices of all iron ore varieties.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neurally bearish in the short-term, and hold the bearish view in the long-run

cross-species: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: buy at out-of-value 09 put options or sell out-of-value 09 call options

Concerns and risks: The intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

橡胶：供应支撑仍存，胶价偏强震荡

节前橡胶延续小幅反弹，在原油价格上涨下，市场对于通胀预期再起，市场氛围暖带来胶价延续反弹。同时，因海内外原料产出有限，成本支撑以及国内港口库存持续下降均对胶价产生支撑。

国内交易所总库存截止4月30为178192吨（+650），期货仓单量176240吨（+2160），国内开割初期，总体产量有限，但海南产区原料产出较多，且因全乳价格下滑，部分流入干胶厂，带来上周仓单及库存总量回升。截至4月25日，青岛保税区库存继续小幅回落，到港量减少大于下游拿货的减少，带来净出库状态。基于海外产量较少，而国内轮胎厂开工率仍较高，预计港口去库仍可维持到5月。

上周现货价格重心继续上移。据卓创了解，目前国内产区新胶陆续释放，但相比于海南产区来看，云南预计5月中旬以后或将呈现大面积增长，短期新胶释放量有限；但从终端来看，由于目前成品消化节奏放缓，导致库存积压从而使得市场对于后续降开工预期升温，因此，现货市场交投情绪偏低迷，终端按需采购，无明显囤货意愿。青岛保税区美金价格重心上涨，整体报盘活跃，相比而言买盘相对偏淡。下游受近期库存压力增大及五一假期开工预期下降影响，买盘一般。外盘市场价格重心小涨为主，目前泰国产区新胶释放量相对有限，原料胶水收购价格震荡走高，支撑美金船货价格走高，但因目前国内终端买盘情绪偏弱，因此整体船货成交气氛一般。截至上周末，橡胶升水合成胶-25元/吨（+225），近期周天然橡胶价格持续回升，带来价差明显缩窄。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止4月29日，全钢胎企业开工率72.96%（-2.69%），半钢胎企业开工率70.89（-1.45%）。上周开工率延续下滑态势，或反映需求走弱迹象。

观点：外盘价格偏强震荡，假期公布的国内4月份重卡销售数据仍维持旺盛，前四个月累计销量同比增加57%。印度疫情的恶化，短期对橡胶需求有所抑制，印度橡胶需求占比全球约7%。外围多空因素影响下，预计橡胶价格更多回归自身基本面。供应端因国内云南西双版纳橡胶树受白粉病影响将推迟到5月中旬全面开割，目前的开割率仅达到往年同期的三分之一左右，海南割胶正常，但大部分原料流入浓乳。因此，短期带来交易所仓单增速缓慢，但预计将逐步增加。需求端因国内轮胎厂开工率连续两周小幅下降，有转弱迹象，据了解主要是国内替换市场以及出口环比下降导致的。因此，供需偏弱，短期在需求尚未明显下降之前，供应端偏多的支撑或更为凸显，预计下周胶价有望维持强势，但5月下旬须关注供应释放的压力。

策略：谨慎偏多，短线参与

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

Rubber: Supply support still exists, and rubber prices fluctuate strongly

Rubber continued to rebound slightly before the holiday. Under the rise of crude oil prices, the market's expectations for inflation have resumed, and the warm market sentiment has brought rubber prices to continue to rebound. At the same time, due to the limited output of raw materials at home and abroad, cost support and the continuous decline of domestic port inventories have all supported the price of rubber.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of April 30 was 178,192 tons (+650), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 176,240 tons (+2,160). In the initial stage of domestic delivery, the overall output was limited, but the raw material output in Hainan production area was relatively large. And due to the decline in the price of emulsion rubber, part of it flowed into the dry rubber factory, which brought last week's warehouse receipts and total inventory rebound. As of April 25, inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, and the decrease in arrivals at the port was greater than the decrease in downstream acquisitions, resulting in a net outbound status. Based on the fact that overseas production is small and the operating rate of domestic tire factories is still relatively high, it is expected that the port destocking can still be maintained until May.

According to Zhuochuang's understanding, the new rubber in the domestic production areas has been released one after another, but compared with the Hainan production area, Yunnan is expected to show a large-scale growth after mid-May, and the short-term release of new rubber is limited. However, from the terminal point of view, due to the slowdown in the pace of finished products digestion, resulting in inventory backlogs, the market is expected to heat up for subsequent reductions in start-ups. Therefore, the trading sentiment in the spot market is sluggish, and the terminal purchases on demand, while there is no obvious willingness to hoard stocks. The center of gravity of US dollar prices in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has risen, and overall offers are active. In contrast, buying orders are relatively weak. Affected by the recent increase in inventory pressure and the expected decline in the start of construction during the May Day Holiday, buying sentiment in the downstream is general. The focus of the external market price has risen mainly. At present, the release of new rubber in Thailand's production areas is relatively limited. The purchase price of raw material rubber has fluctuated and increased, supporting the increase in US dollar cargo prices. However, due to the weak domestic terminal buying sentiment, the overall cargo transaction sentiment is general. As of last weekend, the premium of synthetic rubber was -25 yuan/ton (+225). In recent weeks, the price of natural rubber has continued to rise, which has significantly narrowed the price difference.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of April 29, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 72.96% (-2.69%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 70.89 (-1.45%). The operating rate continued to decline last week, which may reflect signs of weakening demand.

Opinion: The prices of external markets fluctuated strongly, and the domestic heavy-duty truck sales data announced during the holidays remained strong. The cumulative sales in the first four months increased by 57% year-on-year. The worsening of the epidemic situation in India has curbed the demand for rubber in the short term. India's rubber demand accounts for about 7% of the world. Under the influence of external bearish factors, rubber prices are expected to return more to their fundamentals. On the supply side, rubber trees in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, affected by powdery mildew, will be postponed to full-scale delivery in mid-May. The current delivery rate is only about one-third of the same period in previous years. Rubber delivery in Hainan is normal, but most of the raw materials flow into thick latex. Therefore, the short-term growth rate of exchange warehouse receipts is slow, but it is expected to increase gradually. On the demand side, due to the slight decline in the operating rate of domestic tire factories for two consecutive weeks, there are signs of weakening. It is understood that it is mainly caused by the domestic replacement market and the decline in exports. Therefore, supply and demand are weak. In the short term, before the demand has fallen significantly, the support from the supply side may be more prominent. It is expected that rubber prices are expected to remain strong next week, but attention must be paid to the pressure of supply release in late May.

Strategy: cautiously bullish, participate in the short term

Risks: domestic supply may increase sharply, demand continues to weaken due to the impact of the epidemic, and funding would be tight

原油：假期油价继续走高，油市维持分化格局

五一期间油市主要异动有：1、印度疫情继续恶化，并向周边国家扩散。印度卫生部5号公布数据显示，印度累计确诊病例20665148例，单日新增确诊病例382315例，这一数字连续14天超过30万例。世卫组织5号发布报告显示，上周全球46%的新增确诊病例和25%的新增死亡病例来自印度，世卫称印度疫情向周边南亚国家扩散；2、中国五一出行数据亮眼。“五一”假期前三天出行人次超过2019年同期、1-3日，全国铁路共计发送旅客4729万人次，较2019年同期增长8.1%；携程“五一”黄金周总订单量同比增长约270%，较2019年同期增幅超过30%；而北京、上海等城市前3天的接待旅游人次已超过2019年同期，中国五一旅游出行爆发提振国内汽油消费；3、欧美发达国家疫苗接种人数稳步提升，多国开始放松出行管控。截至4月30日，美国（42.3%）、英国（51.2%）、法国（22.2%）、德国（26.9%）（括号内为疫苗接种覆盖率）等欧美发达国家疫苗接种稳步推进。美国、英国、法国、意大利先后开始放开疫情防控措施、允许居民出行/就学/公共消费活动恢复；4、EIA原油库存降幅超预期。截至4月30日当周美国商业原油库存减少799万桶，预期减少200万桶。汽油库存增加73.70万桶，预期减少73.1万桶。馏分油库存减少289.60万桶。美国商业原油库存为2021年2月26日当周以来最低。美国原油出口量为2020年3月13日当周以来最高。5、伊朗核谈取得部分进展。5月2日俄罗斯外交部发表声明表示，维也纳伊核协议谈判已取得进展，第三轮伊核谈判正在审查恢复伊核协议。伊朗方面表示，根据目前达成的共识，美国针对伊朗能源、金融、银行和保险等行业的制裁必须取消，将被解除制裁的个人和机构名单仍在商议中。下一轮谈判将于下周五再次召开，代表团将返回各自国内，下一轮谈判将会加速解决核心分歧和问题。6、北海油田检修季到来，实货表现趋紧。北海Forties管道系统计划在5月27日至6月16日进行季节性关停检修，6月Forties装船计划仅有2船，布伦特交割品级原油BFOET合计装船量将达到年底低点，近期北海油田检修提振北海场外衍生品贴水明显修复，CFD、DFL以及Brent Dubai EFS显著走强。

总结而言，目前原油市场仍旧是典型的分化格局，期货表现强于现货，西区强于东区，当前时间点仍处于中间环节如贸易商、炼厂主动去库存阶段，虽然单边油价表现偏强势，实货贴水以及炼厂利润表现仍不温不火，但我们认为随着欧美逐步重启经济以及夏季出行高峰到来，叠加中国炼厂检修后买兴的逐步回归，预计原油市场将会在三季度从中游主动去库存变为下游以及炼厂主动补库存，因此现货市场或将明显改善，市场核心焦点仍旧是需求复苏的节奏与幅度，此外伊朗核谈进展也需要重点关注。

策略：谨慎偏多，暂无

风险：伊朗核谈进展加快，石油制裁解除时间早于预期

Crude oil: Oil prices continue to rise during holidays, and the oil market maintains a split pattern

The main changes in the oil market during May Day were: 1. The epidemic situation in India continued to worsen and spread to neighboring countries. According to data released by the Ministry of Health of India on the 5th, India has a total of 20,665,148 confirmed cases and 382,315 newly confirmed cases in a single day. This number has exceeded 300,000 for 14 consecutive days. According to a report released by the WHO on the 5th, last week 46% of the new confirmed cases and 25% of the new deaths in the world came from India. The WHO said that the epidemic in India has spread to neighboring South Asian countries. 2. China's May Day trip data is eye-catching. The number of trips in the first three days of the May Day Holiday exceeded that of the same period in 2019. From May 1 to 3, the national railways sent a total of 47.29 million passengers, an increase of 8.1% over the same period in 2019; the total number of orders for Ctrip's "May Day" golden week increased by about 270%, an increase of more than 30% compared to the same period in 2019; while Beijing, Shanghai and other cities received more tourists in the first three days than the same period in 2019. The outbreak of tourism on May Day in China boosted domestic gasoline consumption. 3. The number of vaccinated people in developed countries in Europe and the United States has steadily increased, and many countries have begun to relax travel controls. As of April 30, the United States (42.3%), the United Kingdom (51.2%), France (22.2%), Germany (26.9%) (vaccination coverage in brackets) and other developed countries in Europe and the United States have been steadily advancing vaccination. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy have successively liberalized epidemic prevention and control measures, allowing residents to travel/study/public consumption activities to resume. 4. EIA crude oil inventories have fallen more than expected. As of the week of April 30, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 7.99 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 737,000 barrels, which is expected to decrease by 731,000 barrels. Distillate stocks decreased by 2.896 million barrels. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are the lowest since the week of February 26, 2021. U.S. crude oil exports are the highest since the week of March 13, 2020. 5. Partial progress has been made in Iran's nuclear talks. On May 2, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement stating that progress has been made in the negotiations on the Vienna-Iranian nuclear agreement, and the third round of Iranian nuclear negotiations is reviewing the restoration of the Iranian nuclear agreement. The Iranian side stated that according to the consensus reached so far, the US sanctions against Iran's energy, finance, banking, and insurance industries must be lifted, and the list of individuals and institutions whose sanctions will be lifted is still under discussion. The next round of negotiations will be held again next Friday. The delegations will return to their respective countries. The next round of negotiations will accelerate the resolution of core differences and issues. 6. With the arrival of Beihai Oilfield's maintenance season, the performance of physical products has tightened. The North Sea Forties pipeline system is scheduled to undergo seasonal shutdown for maintenance from May 27 to June 16. Forties is scheduled to ship only 2 ships in June, and the total shipment of Brent delivery grade crude oil BFOET will reach a low point at the end of the year. The recent Beihai Oilfield overhaul has boosted Beihai's off-site derivatives discounts to be significantly repaired, and CFD, DFL and Brent Dubai EFS have significantly strengthened.

In summary, the current crude oil market is still a typical divergence pattern, with futures performing stronger than spot goods, and the western region stronger than the eastern region. At this point in time, it is still in the intermediate link such as traders and refineries that actively destock. Although the unilateral oil price performance is relatively strong, the physical discounts and the performance of refinery profits are still tepid. But we believe that with the gradual restart of the economy in Europe and the United States and the arrival of summer travel peaks, superimposed on the gradual return of buying interest after the overhaul of Chinese refineries, it is expected that the crude oil market will change from active destocking in the midstream to downstream and active restocking by refineries in the third quarter. Therefore, the spot market may improve significantly. The core focus of the market is still the pace and magnitude of demand recovery. In addition, the progress of Iran's nuclear talks also needs to be focused on.

Strategy: cautiously bullish, none

Risk: Iran’s nuclear talks are accelerating, and oil sanctions are lifted earlier than expected

铜：美元与原油一同回升 铜价继续震荡走强

现货情况：

据SMM讯，4月30日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于69,940元/吨至72,330元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价于周一至周四则是运行于-255元/吨至-140元/吨之间，现货市场方面，5.1假期之前，由于铜价格呈现大幅走高的态势，故此使得下游畏高拒采的情绪严重，从而使得节前补库的情况并不明显。节后去库速度则是需要关注的重点。

观点：

短期：

上周国内进口矿TC价格回升至32.48美元/吨，显示出海外矿山紧张的情况或许逐渐在二季度得到缓解，不过由于当下运费相对较高。因此进口矿的输入是否能够与国内传统需求旺季相匹配则仍需持续关注。后续国内去库情况为未来监测重点。而在宏观方面，目前美元指数呈现较大幅度回升，这在一定程度上对铜价持续上攻产生抑制。不过原油价格近期的走强又会从通胀的角度对于铜价形成支撑的格局，因此在当下时点上，铜价或将暂时陷入相对纠结的格局。预计短期暂时仍以震荡上行的格局为主。

中长期：

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们维持铜价长线看涨的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：跨期正套；4. 期权：卖出虚值看跌

关注点：

1. 流动性收紧的风险 2. 国内交仓情况 3. 2季度去库不及预期

Copper: U.S. dollar rebounds with crude oil, copper prices continue to fluctuate and strengthen

Spot market:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of April 30 was between 69,940 yuan/ton and 72,330 yuan/ton. The average premium and discount price of flat copper was between -255 yuan/ton and -140 yuan/ton from Monday to Thursday. In the spot market, before the May Day holiday, copper prices showed a sharply higher trend, which made the downstream mood of fear of high prices and refusal to purchase serious, and the situation of replenishment before the holiday was not obvious. The speed of de-stocking after the holiday is the key point that needs attention.

Opinion:

short term:

Last week, the domestic imported mine TC price rebounded to $32.48/ton, indicating that the tension in overseas mines may gradually ease in the second quarter. However, due to the relatively high freight rates at the moment, whether the input of imported mines can match the peak season of traditional domestic demand still needs continuous attention. The follow-up domestic destocking is the focus of future monitoring. On the macro side, the US dollar index is currently showing a substantial rebound, which to a certain extent inhibits the continued upward attack in copper prices. However, the recent strength of crude oil prices will form a support pattern for copper prices from the perspective of inflation. Therefore, at the current point in time, copper prices may temporarily fall into a relatively tangled pattern. It is expected that in the short term, it will still be dominated by a shock upward pattern.

Medium and long term:

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: forward arbitrage

4. Options: sell at out-of-value and to be bearish

Focus point:

1. The risk of liquidity tightening

2. Domestic delivery situation

3. Destocking in the second quarter fell short of expectations

PTA：逸盛合约减量，关注后续是否有额外检修

平衡表展望：5月延续小幅去库预期，具体关注后续逸盛是否有更多额外检修加剧去库幅度；然而PX5月转为小幅去库预期，关注调油需求对PX的支撑。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：观望，9-1价差近期反弹幅度较大，等待高位布局反套机会。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: Yisheng contracts’ reduction, pay attention to whether there will be additional maintenance.

Balance sheet outlook: In May, the expectation of a small de-stocking continues, and pay particular attention to whether the follow-up Yisheng will have more additional maintenance to increase the de-stocking; however, PX has only a small accumulation in May, focusing on the support for PX from the demand for oil blending.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: hold the current position, under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high prices appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.