铁矿石：现货成交活跃，价格再创新高

上周市场整体看涨情绪浓厚，铁矿价格大幅上涨，期货价格创上市以来新高，上周五铁矿2109合约收于1237.5元/吨，较上上周五收盘价上涨149元/吨，周涨幅13.7%。现货方面，受期货影响，铁矿现货报价也普遍上涨。上周青岛港PB粉报1450元/吨，周环比上涨162元/吨，折盘面1605元/吨，主力合约基差379。超特报1085元/吨，周环比上涨87元/吨，折盘面1350元/吨，主力合约基差123。现货成交方面，市场整体交易活跃度较高，铁矿港口现货成交连续两日突破200万吨。

供应方面，据Mysteel统计新口径澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2451.6万吨，环比减少21.6万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1726万吨，环比减少222万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1512万吨，环比增加19万吨；巴西发货总量725.6万吨，环比增加200.4万吨。全球发运总量3275.3万吨，环比增加37.9万吨。中国45港到港总量2073.9万吨，环比增加224.2万吨；北方六港到港总量为1095.0万吨，环比增加178.3万吨。中国26港到港总量为2010.6万吨，环比增加213.1万吨。本周受极端天气影响澳巴铁矿发运量有所下降，但中国45港到港量依旧正增长。

需求方面，据Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率80.47%，环比上周增加0.39%，同比去年下降7.81%；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.59%，环比增加0.66%，同比增加1.46%；钢厂盈利率90.04%，环比持平，同比增加1.73%；日均铁水产量241.14万吨，环比增加1.76万吨，同比增加3.88万吨；163家钢厂高炉开工率62.02%，环比上周增加0.14%，产能利用率73.46%，环比基本持平，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为79.96%，较去年同期降5.03%，钢厂盈利率79.14%，环比持平。从以上数据中可以看出，钢厂高炉开工率不断回升，钢材进入消费旺季，整体需求韧性较强，对于原料端也形成一定支撑，钢厂在高利润的驱动下生产积极性仍在，铁矿需求阶段性表现良好。

库存方面，据Mysteel统计上周全国45港进口铁矿库存12957.78万吨，周环比降68.91万吨，其中澳矿6623.04万吨，周环比降15.48，巴西矿3888.99万吨，周环比降6.56万吨，贸易矿6181.8万吨，周环比降61.2万吨，球团449.1万吨，周环比降2.9万吨，精粉868.64万吨，周环比降20.5万吨，块矿1789.1万吨，周环比降83.5万吨，粗粉9850.9万吨，周环比增37.9万吨，本周库存小幅下降。

总体来看，受阶段性供需波动和消息面影响，铁矿价格出现大幅上涨，但从长远来看，国内压产仍制约铁矿需求，因此上涨不具有可持续性。短期来看，钢厂在高利润的驱动下生产积极性未见放缓，对于原料端形成一定支撑，叠加海外疫情好转经济复苏，铁矿消费仍较为强劲。但从中长期来看，目前铁矿价格已处在高位，且各地区的压产政策不断趋严，一旦压产范围扩大，则铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期中性观望为主，长期持偏空观点。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：多成材空铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等

Iron ore: active spot market transactions, resulting in new high price level

The overall market sentiment was strong last week, iron ore prices rose sharply, and futures prices hit a new high since listing. Last Friday, the iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,237.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 149 yuan/ton from last Friday’s closing price, or a week-on-week increase of 13.7%. In terms of spot, due to the impact of futures, iron ore spot quotations have also generally risen. Last week, Qingdao Port’s PB fine reported 1,450 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 162 yuan/ton, and a discount of 1,605 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 379. The SSF reported 1,085 yuan/ton, an increase of 87 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis, and a discount of 1,350 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 123. In terms of spot transactions, the overall market activity was relatively high. Spot transactions at iron ore ports exceeded 2 million tons for two consecutive days.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel’s statistics, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 24.516 million tons, a decrease of 216,000 tons from the previous week; the total shipment from Australia was 17.26 million tons, a decrease of 2.22 million tons from the previous week; of which 15.12 million tons were shipped from Australia to China, a week-on-week increase of 190,000 tons. Brazil’s total shipments were 7.256 million tons, an increase of 2.004 million tons from the previous week. The total global shipment volume was 32.753 million tons, an increase of 379,000 tons from the previous week. The total arrivals from 45 ports in China was 20.739 million tons, an increase of 2.242 million tons from the previous week; the total arrivals from the six northern ports was 10.95 million tons, an increase of 1.783 million tons from the previous week. The total arrival volume of China's 26 ports was 20.106 million tons, an increase of 2.131 million tons from the previous week. Affected by the extreme weather this week, the volume of iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil has declined, but the arrivals of China’s 45 ports is still growing.

In terms of demand, according to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 80.47%, an increase of 0.39% from last week and a decrease of 7.81% from the same period last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 90.59%, an increase of 0.66% from the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 1.46%; The profit rate of steel mills was 90.04%, the same month-on-month, with an increase of 1.73% year-on-year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.4114 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from the previous week, an increase of 38,800 tons from the previous year; the operating rate of 163 steel mills’ blast furnaces was 62.02%, an increase of 0.14% from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 73.46%, which was basically the same week-on-week. The utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 79.96%, which was 5.03% lower than the same period last year. The steel mill profit rate was 79.14%, which was the same week-on-week. It can be seen from the above data that the operating rate of steel mills’ blast furnaces has continued to rise, steel has entered the peak consumption season, and the overall demand is relatively strong, which also forms a certain support for the raw material end. Steel mills are still active in production driven by high profits. The demand for iron ore has performed well in stages.

In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel's statistics, last week, the country’s 45 ports imported iron ore inventory was 129,577,800 tons, a week-on-week drop of 689,100 tons, of which Australian number was 66.2304 million tons, a week-on-week drop of 15.48 million tons, and Brazilian figure was 38.8899 million tons, a week-on-week drop of 65,600 tons. Trade ore reported 61.818 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 612,000 tons; pellets reported 4.491 million tons, a week-on-month decrease of 29,000 tons; refined fine stood at 8.6864 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 205,000 tons; lump ore number was 17.891 million tons, and a week-on-week decrease was 835,000. Coarse fine figure was 98.509 million tons, an increase of 379,000 tons on a week-on-week basis. Inventories dropped slightly this week.

Generally speaking, due to the periodic fluctuations in supply and demand and the impact of frequent market news, the price of iron ore has risen sharply, but in the long run, domestic production restriction still limits iron ore demand, so the increase is not sustainable. In the short term, steel mills' enthusiasm for production, driven by high profits, has not slowed down. It has formed a certain degree of support for the raw material side. Coupled with the improvement of overseas epidemics and economic recovery, iron ore consumption remains relatively strong. However, in the medium and long term, the current iron ore price has been at a high level, and the production limitation policies in various regions have become increasingly strict. Once the scope of production restriction is expanded, the demand for iron ore will gradually weaken, and iron ore market is likely to enter a state of surplus. In the future, more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level. We recommend investors to neutrally hold the current position in the short term and to be bearish in the long term.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run

Cross-species: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

橡胶：需求抑制，非标价差拉大

开割初期，海内外原料价格继续上扬，橡胶成本支撑较强叠加偏暖的宏观氛围，带来上周胶价维持反弹势头。

国内交易所总库存截止5月7为178182吨（-10），期货仓单量176140吨（-100），国内开割初期，总体产量有限，仓单及库存仍处于低位。截至4月25日，青岛保税区库存继续小幅回落，到港量减少大于下游拿货的减少，带来净出库状态。基于海外产量较少，而国内轮胎厂开工率仍较高，预计港口去库仍可维持到5月。

上周现货价格重心继续上移。节后两个交易日，总体在市场氛围偏暖带动下，所有胶种价格均有小幅回升。截至上周末，橡胶升水合成胶325元/吨（+600），近期周天然橡胶价格持续回升以及合成胶价格持续回来，带来价差重新逆转。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止5月6日，全钢胎企业开工率51.93%（-21.03%），半钢胎企业开工率55.30（-15.59%）。国内五一假期带来工厂部分停工，预计下周将重新恢复。

观点：目前胶价的支撑主要来自原料端。因海内外开割初期，产量增加有限。尤其国内云南西双版纳橡胶树受白粉病影响将推迟到5月中旬全面开割，目前的开割率仅达到往年同期的三分之一左右，海南割胶正常，但大部分原料流入浓乳。因此，短期带来交易所仓单增速缓慢，但预计将逐步增加。需求端因国内替换市场以及出口环比下降，开工率有下滑趋势。上周在期价上涨过程中，非标价差重新拉大，5月下旬须关注供应释放的压力。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

Rubber: demand has been restricted, and non-standard spreads are widening

In the early stage of delivery, the prices of raw materials at home and abroad continued to rise, and the strong support of rubber costs combined with the warmer macro sentiment brought about the rebound momentum of rubber prices last week.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of May 7 was 178,182 tons (-10), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 176,140 tons (-100). In the early stage of domestic delivery, the overall output was limited, and the warehouse receipts and inventories were still at a low level. As of April 25, inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, and the decrease in arrivals at the port was greater than the decrease in downstream acquisitions, resulting in a net outbound status. Based on the fact that overseas production is small and the operating rate of domestic tire factories is still relatively high, it is expected that the port destocking can still be maintained until May.

In the two trading days after the holiday, the prices of all types of rubber rebounded slightly, driven by the overall warm market sentiment. As of last weekend, the rubber premium was 325 yuan/ton (+600) for synthetic rubber. In recent weeks, the price of natural rubber continued to rise and the price of synthetic rubber continued to return, bringing the price difference to a reversal.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of May 6, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 51.93% (-21.03%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 55.30 (-15.59%). The domestic May Day holiday brought some factory shutdowns, which are expected to resume next week.

Opinion: The current support for rubber prices mainly comes from the raw material side. Because it is currently in the early stage of delivery at home and abroad, the increase in output is limited. In particular, the full delivery of rubber trees in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, affected by powdery mildew, will be postponed until mid-May. The current delivery rate is only about one-third of the same period in previous years. Rubber delivery in Hainan is normal, but most of the raw materials flow into thick latex. Therefore, the short-term growth rate of exchange warehouse receipts is slow, but it is expected to increase gradually. On the demand side, due to the domestic replacement market and the decline in exports, the operating rate has a downward trend. In the process of rising futures prices last week, the non-standard spreads widened again. In late May, we must pay attention to the pressure of supply release.

Strategy: neutrally

Risks: domestic supply increases sharply, demand continues to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funding may be tight.

原油：科洛尼尔管道暂时性关停，提振美成品油价格

上周末，美国最大的成品油管道运营公司称，由于IT软件系统遭到互联网黑客攻击，公司在5月7日主动关停了所有正在运营的管道，虽然在5月9号科洛尼尔管道公司重启了部分支线管道和交付终端，但目前其主线管道1、2、3、4号管道截至目前依然处于关停状态，该公司称在完成重启计划前该管道将保持关闭状态。科洛尼尔成品油管道是目前美国最大的成品油输送管道，其主要用途是将美湾炼厂生产的成品油输送到主要消费地美国东海岸纽约港，目前其1号线日均输送约120万桶的汽油，2号线日均输送约150万桶/日的馏分油，而美国成品油期货的交割地均为纽约港，因此管道临时性关停导致美东成品油供应减少，从而提振美国成品油期货价格，尤其是近月临近交割的合约，截至至4月30日，美国东海岸PADD1地区的汽油库存为6450万桶，处于历史偏低水平，如果管道停运一周，那么美东汽油库存将会降至5240万桶的5年历史低点。当前美国汽油消费复苏较为稳健，考虑到临近阵亡烈士纪念日后，美国将步入夏季出行高峰，而美东地区又是美国最大的汽油消费地，如果在消费启动前保持低库存状态，那么预计当前美国汽油裂解价差相对高位的状态将会维持，当前美汽油对布伦特的裂解价差仍旧维持在20美元/桶以上。此外，如果消费者担心汽油出现短缺以及价格上涨，可能会集中到加油站把油箱加满，从而造成短期的石油挤兑，据机构测算，如果3000万辆汽车从油箱满载的50％变为满载的90％，这导致的结果是会从加油站的储油罐中抽取了400万桶的成品油，此前在1973年以及1979年两次石油危机期间，消费者挤兑是当时造成成品油供应短缺的重要原因之一。但我们认为科洛尼尔管道的重启时间依然是关键，由于物理设施并没有关停，而软件系统的关停主要是公司预防性的，因此我们不认为科洛尼尔管道的瘫痪会维持较长时间，我们认为停运超过1周的可能性偏低，如果科洛尼尔管道停运时间超预期，美国东海岸将加大从欧洲以及美湾地区的成品油船货进口力度，意味着地区成品油套利窗口需要开启，以覆盖船运成本（包括琼斯法案带来的额外成本）。但总体而言，我们认为本次事件更多造成的是脉冲性的影响，对当前的石油市场格局不会形成太大冲击，在全球炼厂逐步从春检中复产，成品油资源将会区域宽松，短期美东地区可能出现短缺，但中期可以通过增加进口的方式来弥补。

策略：谨慎偏多，暂无

风险：伊朗核谈进展加快，石油制裁解除时间早于预期

Crude oil: temporary closure of the Colonial pipeline, boosting U.S. refined oil prices

Last weekend, the largest oil product pipeline operating company in the United States said that due to Internet hacker attacks on its IT software system, the company took the initiative to shut down all operating pipelines on May 7th, although on May 9th, the Colonial Pipeline The company restarted some branch pipelines and delivery terminals, but its main pipeline No. 1, 2, 3, and 4 are still shut down so far. The company said the pipeline will remain closed until the restart plan is completed.

The Colonial Refined Oil Pipeline is currently the largest refined oil pipeline in the United States. Its main purpose is to transport refined oil produced by the U.S. Gulf refinery to New York Port on the east coast of the United States. Currently, its line 1 transports approximately 1.2 million barrels of gasoline, line 2 transports about 1.5 million barrels of distillate per day, and the delivery place for U.S. refined oil futures is New York Harbor. Therefore, the temporary shutdown of the pipeline led to a reduction in the supply of refined oil in the east of the United States. This boosts U.S. refined oil futures prices, especially for contracts that are close to delivery in recent months. As of April 30, gasoline inventories in the PADD1 area on the east coast of the U.S. were 64.5 million barrels, which is at a historically low level. If the pipeline is suspended for a week, then Eastern US gasoline inventories will fall to a 5-year historical low of 52.4 million barrels. The current recovery of gasoline consumption in the United States is relatively stable. Considering that the United States will enter the peak of summer travel after the Memorial Day of the Martyrs, and the east of the United States is the largest gasoline consumer. If the low inventory status is maintained before consumption starts, it is expected that the current state of relatively high gasoline cracking spreads in the United States will remain. The current cracking price difference between US gasoline and Brent remains above US$20/barrel. In addition, if consumers are worried about the shortage of gasoline and the price increase, they may concentrate on filling up the fuel tank at the gas station, causing a short-term oil run. According to the agency's calculations, if 30 million cars change from 50% of the full fuel tank to full load 90%, the result is that 4 million barrels of refined oil will be extracted from the storage tanks of gas stations. During the two oil crises in 1973 and 1979, consumer runs is one of the important reasons that caused a shortage of refined oil at that time. However, we believe that the restart time of the Colonial pipeline is still the key. Since the physical facilities have not been shut down, and the shutdown of the software system is mainly preventive by the company, we do not believe that the collapse of the Colonial pipeline will remain longer. We believe that the possibility of shutdown for more than 1 week is low. If the Colonial pipeline is shut down for longer than expected, the east coast of the United States will increase the import of refined oil tankers from Europe and the U.S. Gulf region, which means that the region refined oil arbitrage window needs to be opened to cover shipping costs (including the additional costs caused by the Jones Act). But in general, we believe that the incident caused more impulse effects, which will not have a major impact on the current oil market structure. As global refineries gradually resume production from spring inspections, refined oil resources will be regional easing. There may be short-term shortages in the east of the United States, but in the medium term it can be compensated by increasing imports.

Strategy: cautiously bullish, none

Risk: Iran’s nuclear talks are accelerating, and oil sanctions are lifted earlier than expected

铜：节后首周铜价继续飙涨

现货情况：据SMM讯，5月7日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于72,600元/吨至74,280元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价于周一至周四则是运行于-70元/吨至-30元/吨之间。上周为五一小长假后的第一周，但由于铜价格持续呈现出走强的态势，故此使得下游畏高拒采的情况十分严重，导致现货有价无市。

短期观点：上周国内进口矿TC价格小幅回升0.09美元/吨至32.48美元/吨，不过目前由于南美洲疫情似有再度猛烈反扑的态势，加之当下运费持续高企的情况，也使得海外货源流入国内或有所受限。而在需求方面，二季度仍是国内传统的消费旺季，只是由于目前铜价持续走高使得下游采购十分谨慎，但若此后出现价格回落的情况，则也可能会在一定程度上刺激下游补库需求，使得铜价暂时相对难跌。而在宏观方面，目前市场通胀预期持续走高，这对于包括铜在内的有色金属板块价格较为有利。因此在这样的情况下，目前仍维持对于铜价相对乐观的态度。本周需重点关注反应通胀水平的美国4月CPI数据。

中长期观点：中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们维持铜价长线看涨的判断。

策略：1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：跨期正套；4. 期权：卖出虚值看跌

关注点：1. 流动性收紧的风险 2. 国内交仓情况 3. 2季度去库不及预期

Copper: copper prices continue to soar in the first week after the holiday

Spot market: According to SMM news, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of May 7 was between 72,600 yuan/ton to 74,280 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of flat copper was running at -70 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton from Monday to Thursday. Last week was the first week after the May Day holiday. However, because copper prices continued to show a strong trend, the situation that downstream fears of high prices being reluctant to purchase was very serious, resulting in no transactions for spot market.

Short-term view: Last week, domestic imported mine TC prices rebounded slightly by $0.09/ton to $32.48/ton. However, due to the South American epidemic, there seems to be a violent counterattack again, and the current high freight rates have also caused overseas sources of goods to flow into the country to be limited. In terms of demand, the second quarter is still the traditional peak season for domestic consumption. It is only because the current copper price continues to rise making that downstream purchases are very cautious. However, if prices fall afterwards, it may also stimulate downstream replenishment demand to a certain extent. This makes it relatively difficult for copper prices to fall temporarily. On the macro side, the current market inflation expectations continue to rise, which is more favorable to the prices of non-ferrous metals, including copper. Therefore, under such circumstances, we still maintain a relatively optimistic attitude towards copper prices. This week, we need to focus on the US April CPI data that reflects the level of inflation.

Medium- and long-term perspective: In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: forward arbitrage

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. The risk of liquidity tightening

2. Domestic delivery situation

3. Destocking fell short of expectations in the second quarter

PTA：5月延续去库预期，能化板块上涨氛围带动PTA上涨

平衡表展望：4月大幅去库，进入5月缓和为小幅至中幅去库，去库速率有所减缓；具体关注后续逸盛是否有更多额外检修加剧去库幅度；然而PX5月转为小幅去库预期，关注调油需求对PX的支撑。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：观望，9-1价差近期反弹幅度较大，等待高位布局反套机会。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: expectations of destocking continued in May, and the rising sentiment of the energy and chemical sector drives the rise of PTA

Balance sheet outlook: In April, the inventory was largely destocked, and in May it eased to a small to medium destocking, and the destocking rate has slowed down; and pay particular attention to whether the follow-up Yisheng will have more additional maintenance to increase the de-stocking; however, PX changed to a slight destocking expectation in May, focusing on the support of oil adjusting demand for PX.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: hold the current position, under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high prices appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.