铁矿石：市场看涨情绪浓厚，铁矿延续强势涨停

受周末现货市场大幅拉涨影响，昨日期货早盘黑色商品多合约涨停，铁矿价格也延续上涨趋势再创历史新高。铁矿2109合约以1326元/吨涨停，较上一交易日收盘价上涨99.5元/吨，涨幅8.1%，日减仓5万手。现货方面，10日青岛港PB粉报1650元/吨，上涨180元/吨。现货市场交易活跃度依旧较高，市场整体看涨情绪浓厚，贸易商挺价意愿强烈。

供应方面，据Mysteel统计上周新口径澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2481.9万吨，环比增加30.3万吨。澳洲发运总量1935.2万吨，环比增加209.2万吨；巴西发运总量546.7万吨，环比减少178.9万吨。全球发运总量3247.7万吨，环比减少27.6万吨。上周中国45港口到港量2296.4万吨，环比增加222.5万吨。其中澳矿到港量1581.9万吨，环比增加179.6万吨;非主流矿到港量413.5万吨，环比增加88.3万吨;巴西矿到港量301万吨，环比减少45.4万吨。北方六港到港总量为1071.9万吨，环比减少23.1万吨；中国26港到港总量为2232.3万吨，环比增加221.7万吨。受极端天气影响上周巴西铁矿发运量有所下降，但中国45港口到港总量依旧维持正增长。

消息方面，据新华社报道，中国钢铁工业协会副会长骆铁军认为，铁矿石价格居高不下的主要原因，在于供给端高度集中，主导权掌握在卖方手中。此外，市场预期和炒作成分很大。他呼吁，要在市场机制失灵的情况下，发挥政府引导作用，有效遏制铁矿石价格不断上涨势头。

总体来看，受阶段性供需波动和消息面影响，铁矿价格出现大幅上涨，但从长远来看，国内压产仍制约铁矿需求，因此上涨不具有可持续性。短期来看，钢厂在高利润的驱动下生产积极性未见放缓，对于原料端形成一定支撑，叠加海外疫情好转经济复苏，铁矿消费仍较为强劲。但从中长期来看，目前铁矿价格已处在高位，且各地区的压产政策不断趋严，一旦压产政策落地，则铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期中性观望为主，长期持偏空观点。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：多成材空铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：虚值买入09看跌期权或卖出虚值09看涨期权

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

Iron ore: The market has strong bullish sentiment, and the one-direction non-continuous quotation under the price limit continues to happen with iron ore contracts

Affected by the sharp rise in the spot market over the weekend, a lot of ferrous commodity contracts hit their up limits in early trading yesterday, and the price of iron ore also continued its upward trend to hit a record high. The iron ore 2109 contract hit its up limit of 1,326 yuan/ton, an increase of 99.5 yuan/ton, or 8.1%, from the closing price of the previous trading day, with open interest losing 50,000 lots. In terms of spot, Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,650 yuan/ton on the 10th, an increase of 180 yuan/ton. Trading activity in the spot market is still high, the overall market is full of bullish sentiment, and traders have a strong willingness to raise prices.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total shipment of Australia and Brazil iron ore last week was 24.819 million tons, an increase of 303,000 tons from the previous week. Australia shipped 19.352 million tons, an increase of 2.092 million tons from the previous week. Brazil shipped 5.467 million tons, a decrease of 1.789 million tons from the previous week. The total global shipment volume was 32.477 million tons, a decrease of 276,000 tons from the previous week. Last week, the arrivals of China’s 45 were 22.964 million tons, an increase of 2.225 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the arrival from Australia was 15.819 million tons, an increase of 1.796 million tons from the previous week; the arrival from non-mainstream ores was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 883,000 tons from the previous week; the arrival from Brazil was 3.01 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons from the previous week. The total arrivals of the six northern ports were 10.719 million tons, a decrease of 231,000 tons from the previous week; the total arrivals of China's 26 ports were 22.323 million tons, an increase of 2.217 million tons from the previous week. Affected by extreme weather, Brazil’s iron ore shipments declined last week, but the total arrivals of China’s 45 ports still maintained a positive growth.

In terms of news, according to Xinhua News Agency, Luo Tiejun, vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, believes that the main reason for the high iron ore price is the high concentration of the supply side, and the dominant power is in the hands of the seller. In addition, market expectations and hype are large. He called for the authorities to give full play to the guiding role of the government in the case of market mechanisms failing to effectively curb the rising trend of iron ore prices.

Generally speaking, due to the periodic fluctuations in supply and demand and the impact of frequent market news, the price of iron ore has risen sharply, but in the long run, domestic production restriction still limits iron ore demand, so the increase is not sustainable. In the short term, steel mills' enthusiasm for production, driven by high profits, has not slowed down. It has formed a certain degree of support for the raw material side. Coupled with the improvement of overseas epidemics and economic recovery, iron ore consumption remains relatively strong. However, in the medium and long term, the current iron ore price has been at a high level, and the production limitation policies in various regions have become increasingly strict. Once the scope of production restriction is expanded, the demand for iron ore will gradually weaken, and iron ore market is likely to enter a state of surplus. In the future, more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level. We recommend investors to neutrally hold the current position in the short term and to be bearish in the long term.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run

Cross-species: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: but at out-of-value 09 put options or sell at out-of-value 09 call options

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

橡胶：国内原料产出有限，价格坚挺

10号，RU主力收盘14595（+150）元/吨，混合胶报价11950元/吨（-50），主力合约基差-570元/吨（-50）；前二十主力多头持仓103877（-3100），空头持仓161440（-+1003），净空持仓57563（+4103）。

10号，NR主力收盘价11730（+70）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1780（+15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1765美元/吨（+10），印尼标胶1740（+15）美元/吨。主力合约基差-520（-17）元/吨。

截至5月7日：交易所总库存178182（-10），交易所仓单176140（-100）。

原料：泰国春耕节，暂不报价。生胶片61.5（0），杯胶46.75（0），胶水63.8（0)，烟片69.11（0）。

截止5月6日，国内全钢胎开工率为51.93%（-21.03%），国内半钢胎开工率为55.30%(-15.59%）。

观点：在市场氛围推动下，昨天橡胶期价维持偏强震荡。目前国内主产区因原料产出有限，尤其云南版纳地区尚未全面开割，甚至有消息称当地橡胶或存在二次落叶的风险，则将进一步推迟原料增加时间，使得短期原料价格仍坚挺，带来橡胶下方的成本支撑较强。需求端有转弱迹象，但总体国内轮胎厂开工率仍较高，带来国内港口库存持续下降，或在6月之后，海内外产量开始释放之际，库存去化趋势才能得到扭转，短期胶价偏强震荡。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

Rubber: domestic raw material output is limited and prices are firm

On May 10, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,595 (+150) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 11,950 (-50) yuan/ton, the basis of most-active contract was -570 yuan/ton (-50); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 103,877 (-3,100) lots and the short position was 161,440 (+1,003), net short position was 57,563 (+4,103).

On May 10, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,730 (+70) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 (+15) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,765 (+10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,740 (+15) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract was -520 (-17) yuan/ton.

As of May 7: the total inventory of the exchange was 178,182 (-10) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchange were 176,140 (-100) lots.

Raw materials: No quotation is available for the Thai Spring Plowing Festival. Sheet rubber 61.5 (0), cup lump 46.75 (0), latex 63.8 (0), RSS3 69.11 (0).

As of May 6, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 51.93% (-21.03%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 55.30% (-15.59%).

Opinion: Driven by the market sentiment, the rubber futures price remained strong and volatile yesterday. At present, due to the limited output of raw materials in the main domestic production areas, especially the Yunnan Banna area has not yet been fully delivered, there is even news that the local rubber may have the risk of secondary falling leaves. This will further delay the increase of raw materials, making both of short-term raw material prices and the cost support under the rubber to be strong. There are signs of weakening on the demand side, but the overall operating rate of domestic tire factories is still relatively high, which has brought about a continuous decline in domestic port inventory. Or after June, when domestic and overseas production begins to be released, the trend of inventory destocking can be reversed, resulting in the rubber prices fluctuate at a high level.

Strategy: neutrally

Risks: production increases significantly, inventory continues to accumulate, and demand falls sharply, etc.

原油：科洛尼尔管道停运，部分美湾炼厂减产

科洛尼尔管道关闭事件持续发酵，我们认为除了收紧美东地区的成品油供应之外，主要的影响体现在：1、如果宕机时间过长，可能导致美湾炼厂尤其是路易斯安那州以及德州东部炼厂出现减产，因为炼厂要设法避免因为管道关停所导致的成品油胀库，我们看到已经有部分炼厂如阿瑟港出现了减产，从这一角度来说，炼厂开工率下降会对美国原油消费利空；2、对美东地区的成品油而言，馏分油受到的影响会大于汽油，因为可再生能源交易码价格高企，在管道宕机前美东地区的馏分油进口处于低迷状态，而当前美国炼厂以生产汽油为主，汽柴比处理历史高位，因此管道停运对美东的馏分油供应的冲击比汽油更为显著。但总体而言，我们认为科洛尼尔管道出现长时间停产的概率偏低，对市场造成的影响相对有限。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

Crude oil: The Colonial Pipeline shuts down, some US Gulf refineries cut production

The closure of the Colonial Pipeline continues to adversely affect the market. We believe that in addition to tightening the supply of refined oil in the Eastern U.S., the main impacts are reflected in: 1. If the downtime is too long, it may cause the U.S. Gulf refineries, especially in the Louisiana State and Eastern Texas to experience production reduction. Because the refinery must try to avoid the expansion of refined oil storage due to pipeline shutdowns, we have seen that some refineries such as Port Arthur have experienced production cuts. From this perspective, the decline in refinery operating rates will lead to the bullish sentiment for short positions of US crude oil consumption; 2. For refined oil products in the Eastern United States, distillate oil will be more affected than gasoline. Because of the high expected price of renewable energy transactions, distillate imports in the eastern US were in a sluggish state before the pipeline was down. At present, US refineries mainly produce gasoline, and the ratio of gasoline to diesel is at a historically high level. Therefore, the impact of pipeline shutdown on the supply of distillate in the East of the United States is more significant than that of gasoline. But in general, we believe that the probability of a long-term shutdown of the Colonial pipeline is low, and the impact on the market is relatively limited.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk: None

铜：铜价高企现货成交僵持

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日无论是贸易买盘还是下游买盘纷纷驻足观望，买兴较弱，市场报盘高开低走，早市平水铜始报于贴水70-贴水60元/吨试探市场，无奈盘面持续冲高，市场买盘难有接受度，部分持货商为换现率先调价至贴水80元/吨后依旧难以吸引市场买兴便再度主动调价至贴水90元/吨才略显成交，第二时段前后市场听闻贴水100元/吨流出吸引部分贸易买盘采购，但整体交投依旧不活跃。好铜报价因临近交割，整体报价较为坚挺，基本报至贴水60-贴水30元/吨之间，甚至听闻部分贵溪铜持货商挺价于贴水20元/吨，无奈盘面过高，性价比不及平水铜，实际成交寥寥。湿法铜在进口窗口长期关闭的情况下依旧难见大量货源，受到Gresike，PSR，DMK等品牌指引下报于贴水160-140元/吨。

观点：昨日，铜价继续保持高位震荡格局，宏观方面美元指数以及长端美债收益率均呈现出走低的态势，叠加原油近期逐渐走高而带来的通胀方面的正向反馈，使得在当下阶段铜价格易涨难跌。不过铜价持续高企也使得下游采购愈发谨慎，甚至呈现出下游企业拒采甚至违约的情况，这也使得近期在铜传统旺季之时居然出现库存小幅累高的情况。不过倘若后市价格能够呈现一定回落，则下游的采购也将大概率被刺激，因此当下从操作上而言，依然建议以逢低做多为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外盘反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期

Copper: copper prices are as high as expected and spot transactions are deadlocked

Spot market: According to SMM news, both trade buying and downstream buying have stopped and held their current positions yesterday. The buying interest was weak, and the market offer opened higher and then lowered. In the morning market, flat copper was quoted at a discount of 70-60 yuan/tons, but the market continues to rise broadly, and market buying is difficult to accept the situation. Some holders first adjusted the price to a discount of 80 yuan/ton in order to exchange for spot, and then it was still difficult to attract the market to buy, so they actively adjusted the price to a discount of 90 yuan. Such that, the transaction slightly increased. Around the second period, the market heard a discount of 100 yuan per ton, attracting some trade buying orders, but the overall transaction was still not active. Due to the approaching delivery, the overall quotation of the good copper is relatively strong. Basically, it is quoted at a discount of 60-30 yuan/ton. It is even heard that some Guixi copper holders are quoting at a discount of 20 yuan/ton. However, the market prices are broadly high, and the price is not as cost-effective as flat copper, causing the actual transaction to be very few. Wet-processing copper is still difficult to find a large number of sources when the import window is closed for a long time. Under the guidance of brands such as Gresike, PSR, DMK, etc., a discount of 160-140 yuan/ton is reported.

Opinion: Yesterday, the copper price continued to maintain a high volatility pattern. The US dollar index and long-end U.S. Treasury yields showed a downward trend on the macro side. Coupled with the positive feedback on inflation brought about by the recent gradual increase in crude oil such market sentiment made copper prices to be easy to increase but different to fall in the current stage. However, the continued high copper price has also made downstream purchases more cautious, and even showed that downstream companies refused to purchase or even breached their contracts. This also caused a slight increase in inventories during the traditional peak season of copper in the near future. However, if the market price can show a certain fall in the future, downstream purchases will also be stimulated with a high probability. Therefore, from an operational point of view, it is still recommended to go long positions when the market reaches a low level.

Medium- and long-term perspective: In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. Dollar index trend

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations

PTA:聚酯产销周初再度回落

平衡表展望：4月大幅去库，进入5月缓和为小幅至中幅去库，去库速率有所减缓；具体关注后续逸盛是否有更多额外检修加剧去库幅度；然而PX5月转为小幅去库预期，关注调油需求对PX的支撑。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：观望，9-1价差逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: polyester production and sales fell again at the beginning of the week

Balance sheet outlook: In April, the inventory was largely destocked, and in May it eased to a small to medium destocking, and the destocking rate has slowed down; and pay particular attention to whether Yisheng will have more additional maintenance to increase the de-stocking; however, PX changed to a slight destocking expectation in May, focusing on the support of oil adjusting demand for PX.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: hold the current position, under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.