铁矿石：市场偏谨慎观望，铁矿呈高位震荡

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿价格冲高回落，全天呈现高位震荡。铁矿2109合约减仓上涨收于1306.5元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌19.5元/吨，跌幅1.47%，日减仓14644手。现货方面，11日青岛港PB粉报1630元/吨，小幅下调20元/吨，11日早盘铁矿现货市场活跃度有所下降，但现货价格依旧维持强势，市场情绪以谨慎观望为主，整体成交一般。

需求方面，Mysteel预估5月上旬粗钢产量继续增加，全国粗钢预估产量3027.32万吨，日均产量302.73万吨，环比4月下旬上升1.26%，同比上升7.44%。在需求旺季和高利润驱动下，钢厂的生产积极性依旧较高。

消息方面，国家统计局11日公布的数据显示，2021年4月CPI同比上涨0.9%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点；PPI同比上涨6.8%，涨幅比上月扩大2.4个百分点。报告指出，4月份国内工业生产稳定恢复，铁矿石、有色金属等国际大宗商品价格上行，生产领域价格继续上涨。从环比看，PPI上涨0.9%，涨幅比上月回落0.7个百分点。其中，生产资料价格上涨1.2%，涨幅回落0.8个百分点。

整体来看，钢材正处于消费旺季，整体需求韧性较强，且在高利润的驱动下，钢厂的生产积极性依旧较高，对原料端形成一定支持，加之中澳关系的不确定性，引发近期市场对于铁矿供应的担忧，也从一定程度上推动了铁矿的上涨。但从中长期来看，目前铁矿价格已处在高位，且在“碳达峰”和环保限产的大背景下，各地区的压产政策不断趋严，一旦压产政策落地，则铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态。所以随着铁矿绝对价格的不断增高，风险也在进一步加剧，因此需控制好仓位，后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期中性观望为主，长期持偏空观点。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：多成材空铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：虚值买入09看跌期权或卖出虚值09看涨期权

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

Iron ore: The market participants are cautiously holding their current positions, while iron ore fluctuates at high levels

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the price of iron ore rose sharply and then fell, showing high fluctuations at high levels throughout the day. The iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,306.5 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the closing price of the previous trading day, with open interest decreasing 14,644 lots. In terms of spot, the PB fine of Qingdao Port reported on the 11th at 1,630 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The iron ore spot market activity in the early trading on the 11th declined, but the spot price remained strong. The market participants are cautiously holding their current positions and the whole transaction was general.

In terms of demand, Mysteel predicts that crude steel production will continue to increase in early May. The national crude steel output is estimated to be 30,273,200 tons, with an average daily output of 3.0273 million tons, an increase of 1.26% from the end of April and an increase of 7.44% year-on-year. Driven by the peak demand season and high profits, steel mills are still highly motivated to produce.

In terms of news, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 11th showed that in April 2021, CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; PPI rose 6.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. The report pointed out that domestic industrial production recovered steadily in April, the prices of international commodities such as iron ore and non-ferrous metals rose, and prices in the production sector continued to rise. From a month-on-month perspective, PPI rose by 0.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 1.2%, a drop of 0.8 percentage points.

On the whole, steel is in the peak season of consumption, and the overall demand is relatively strong. Driven by high profits, steel mills are still highly motivated to produce, forming a certain degree of support for the raw material side. The uncertainty of Sino-Australian relations has triggered recent market concerns about the supply of iron ore, which has also promoted the rise of iron ore to a certain extent. However, in the medium and long term, the price of iron ore is currently at a high level, and under the background of "carbon peak" and environmental protection of production restrictions, the production limitation policies in various regions have become more stringent. Once the policy of restricting production is implemented, iron ore demand will gradually weaken, and iron ore is likely to enter a state of surplus. Therefore, as the absolute price of iron ore continues to increase, the risk is further intensified. Therefore, the position needs to be controlled, and more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level in the future. We recommend market participants to neutrally hold their current positions in the short term and to be bearish in the long run.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run

Cross-species: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: but at out-of-value 09 put options or sell at out-of-value 09 call options

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

橡胶：供需无亮点，胶价重新回落

11号，RU主力收盘14165（-430）元/吨，混合胶报价11950元/吨（-50），主力合约基差-565元/吨（+5）；前二十主力多头持仓106127（+2250），空头持仓165772（+4332），净空持仓59645（+2082）。

11号，NR主力收盘价11410（-320）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1745（-35）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1735美元/吨（-30），印尼标胶1710（-30）美元/吨。主力合约基差-423（+97）元/吨。

截至5月7日：交易所总库存178182（-10），交易所仓单176140（-100）。

原料：生胶片61.5（0），杯胶47（+0.25），胶水65.5（+1.7)，烟片68.72（-0.39）。

截止5月6日，国内全钢胎开工率为51.93%（-21.03%），国内半钢胎开工率为55.30%(-15.59%）。

观点：昨天胶价大幅走低，基本回吐上周涨幅。昨天泰国主产区原料价格涨跌互现，在产出有限下，原料价格仍处于同比较高水平。国内因云南版纳地区尚未全面开割，原料价格相对坚挺，造成干胶产出较少，橡胶下方的成本支撑较强。需求端有转弱迹象，国内轮胎厂开工率呈小幅回落状态，轮胎厂及终端经销商库存回升，或反映需求疲弱状态。但因短期供应影响更大，国内港口库存持续下降。在6月之后，海内外产量开始释放之际，国内港口库存去化趋势才能得到扭转。橡胶没有更多新的利好，短期或更多震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

Rubber: There is no highlights in supply and demand data, and rubber prices have fallen again.

On May 11, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,165 (-430) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 11,950 (-50) yuan/ton, the basis of most-active contract was -565 yuan/ton (+5); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 106,127 (+2,250) lots and the short position was 165,772 (+4,332) lots, net short position was 59,645 (+2,082).

On May 11, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,410 (-320) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,745 (-35) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,735 (-30) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,710 (-30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract was -423 (+97) yuan/ton.

As of May 7: the total inventory of the exchange was 178,182 (-10) lots, and the warehouse receipts of the exchange were 176,140 (-100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 61.5 (0), cup lump 47 (+0.25), latex 65.5 (+1.7), RSS3 68.72 (-0.39).

As of May 6, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 51.93% (-21.03%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 55.30% (-15.59%).

Opinion: The price of rubber fell sharply yesterday, and basically gave up last week's gains. Yesterday, the prices of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas were mixed. With limited output, the prices of raw materials were still at a relatively high level year-on-year. In China, due to the fact that the Yunnan Banna area has not yet been fully delivered, the price of raw materials is relatively strong, resulting in less dry rubber output and strong cost support under the rubber. There are signs of weakening on the demand side. The operating rate of domestic tire factories has declined slightly, and the inventory of tire factories and terminal dealers has rebounded, which may reflect the weak demand. However, due to the greater impact of short-term supply, domestic port inventories continued to decline. After June, when production at home and abroad begins to release, the trend of destocking at domestic ports can be reversed. There is no more good news in the rubber market, and more fluctuations might be witnessed in the short term.

Strategy: neutrally

Risks: production increases significantly, inventory continues to accumulate, and demand falls sharply, etc.

原油：科洛尼尔管道预计周内重启

从科洛尼尔管道公司的表态，公司将在本周末前重启管道，我们认为当前管道重启时间受到两方面因素的影响，一方面是科洛尼尔管道是否会对黑客支付赎金以避免长时间管道宕机所带来的损失，另一方面是人工重启管道的难度，因为科洛尼尔管道日常的运营高度自动化，人工重启管道会耗费较多的人力且难度较大，但在和黑客谈判无果的情况下，将是现阶段下相对较优的解决办法。而从科洛尼尔管道对美国成品油贸易流向的影响来看，美东地区将会增加从欧洲的进口，同时美湾炼厂会增加对拉美国家的出口，而如果宕机时间较长，不排除美国可能短暂豁免琼斯法案来降低从美湾到美东的船运成本。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

Crude oil: Colonial pipeline is expected to restart within this week

From the statement of Colonier Pipeline, the company will restart the pipeline before this weekend. We believe that the current pipeline restart time is affected by two factors. One is whether the Colonial pipeline will pay hackers a ransom to avoid the losses caused by a long pipeline downtime, and the other is the difficulty of manually restarting the pipeline. Because the daily operations of the Colonial pipeline are highly automated, manual restarting of the pipeline will consume more manpower and is more difficult. But in the case of negotiating with hackers to no avail, this will be a relatively better solution at this stage. From the perspective of the impact of the Colonial Pipeline on the flow of US refined oil trade, the eastern U.S. region will increase imports from Europe, while the U.S. gulf refineries will increase exports to Latin American countries. And if the downtime is longer, it is not ruled out that the United States may temporarily waive the Jones Act to reduce the cost of shipping from the U.S. gulf to the U.S. east.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk: None

铜：基本面变化有限 铜价高位震荡

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日即使盘面回调千元之多，依旧难以激发市场买盘力量，现货市场整体交投依旧维持清淡，买盘持续压价，升贴水意外呈现下行之势。早市平水铜始报于贴水70元/吨附近，下游买盘难有接受度，部分持货商欲调价出货，率先调至贴水90-贴水80元/吨依旧难见买盘兴致，10点左右持货商再度调至贴水100元/吨才略显成交，但距离买方心里价位仍有差距，第二时段前后便可压价至贴水110元/吨成交，尾盘甚至听闻持货商欲换现，大量贴水120元/吨货源流出，市场交投活跃度才有所回暖。好铜受到交割日的临近，报价较为坚挺，基本报于贴水40-贴水20元/吨，贵溪铜持货商体现出惜售情绪，甚至报至升水20元/吨，但买方难以接受，实际成交寥寥。湿法铜货源维持稀少，听闻少量ESOX，Spence等货源报至贴水水160-140元/吨之间，市场大多以PASAR、GRESIKE等品牌以同样的价格吸引下游的刚需补货。

观点：昨日，铜价依旧维持高位震荡格局，虽然日内价格一度出现回落的情况，但是似乎暂未激发出十分强烈的买盘需求，整体成交依然清淡，并且持货商似乎也并无主动让渡升贴水以求出货的情况，故此总体而言，基本面变化相对有限。不过美元指数的持续羸弱则仍在很大程度上给予了铜价格较为有利的支撑。此外今日晚间将会公布美国方面CPI数据，倘若通胀的影响同样正向，那么铜价格预计仍将维持相对强劲的态势。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外盘反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1.美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期

Copper: Fundamental changes are limited, and copper prices fluctuate at high levels

Spot market: According to SMM news, even if the market pulled back as much as 1,000 yuan yesterday, it was still difficult to stimulate market buying power. The overall spot market remained sluggish, and buying side continued to keep prices down, and premiums and discounts unexpectedly showed a downward trend. In the morning session, flat copper first reported at a discount of 70 yuan/ton. It is difficult for downstream buying to accept. Some holders want to change the price for shipments, adjusting to a discount of 90-80 yuan/ton. However, there is still a gap between such price and the buyer's expectation. Before and after the second period, the price can be reduced to a discount of 110 yuan/ton. In late trading, it was even heard that the holders wanted to exchange spot. A large volume of resources with a discount of 120 yuan/ton was flowed out, and then the market's trading activity picked up. Good copper was close to the delivery date, and the quotation was relatively strong, basically quoted at a discount of 40 to 20 yuan/ton. Guixi copper holders showed a reluctance to sell, and even reported a premium of 20 yuan/ton, but the buyer was difficult to accept and the actual transaction is very few. The supply of wet-process copper remains scarce. It is heard that a small amount of ESOX, Spence and other sources are reported to have a discount of 160-140 yuan/ton. Most of the market uses brands such as PASAR and GRESIKE to attract downstream just-needed replenishment at the same price.

Opinion: Yesterday, copper prices still maintained a high volatility pattern at high price levels. Although the price once fell in the day, it did not seem to stimulate very strong buying demand for the time being. The overall transaction was still few, and the holders did not seem to take the initiative to give up the premium or discount for shipments. So overall, the fundamental changes are relatively limited. However, the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar index still largely provided more favorable support for copper prices. In addition, US CPI data will be announced this evening. If the impact of inflation is also positive, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong.

Medium- and long-term perspective: In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. Dollar index trend

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations

PTA：加工费再度小幅回落

平衡表展望：4月大幅去库，进入5月缓和为小幅至中幅去库，去库速率有所减缓；具体关注后续逸盛是否有更多额外检修加剧去库幅度；然而PX5月转为小幅去库预期，关注调油需求对PX的支撑。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：9-1价差逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: processing fees slightly fell again .

Balance sheet outlook: In April, the inventory was largely destocked, and in May it eased to a small to medium destocking, and the destocking rate has slowed down; and pay particular attention to whether Yisheng will have more additional maintenance to increase the de-stocking; however, PX changed to a slight destocking expectation in May, focusing on the support of oil adjusting demand for PX.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.