铁矿石：多空博弈，铁矿震荡盘整

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿现货价格平稳，期货整体稳中偏强，主力合约午后冲高回落，最终收于1337元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨30.5元/吨，涨幅2.3%，日增仓8516手。现货方面，12日青岛港进口矿价格暂稳，青岛港PB粉报1640元/吨，小幅上调10元/吨，现货市场整体窄幅震荡，市场情绪以谨慎观望为主，整体成交一般。

本周各钢厂陆续推出了6月份产品价格调整政策，各类钢材价格均有不同程度上调，钢价仍处于上涨态势，对于原料端也形成一定支撑，另一方面，随着钢厂利润的增加，为提高铁水产量，钢材更偏向于使用高品矿，这使得不同品质矿之间的价差不断扩大，且钢厂在高利润的驱动下生产积极性仍在，铁矿需求阶段性表现良好。11日，大商所发布《关于就铁矿石期货合约及相关规则修改方案征求意见的公告》，公告中就铁矿石交割品质量指标、品牌升贴水和交割方式等进行了调整。12日，央行数据显示广义货币（M2）余额226.21万亿元,同比增长8.1%，增速比上月末低1.3个，比上年同期低3个百分点 ；4月社会融资规模增量为1.85万亿元，比上年同期少1.25万亿元，比2019年同期多1797亿元。央行货币政策委员会委员王一鸣表示，M2和社会融资规模增速虽在去年高基数基础上有所回落，但两年平均来看继续保持在合理水平，体现了货币政策的连续性、稳定性、可持续性。

整体来看，钢材正处于消费旺季，整体需求韧性较强，且在高利润的驱动下，钢厂的生产积极性依旧较高，对原料端形成一定支持，加之中澳关系的不确定性，引发近期市场对于铁矿供应的担忧，也从一定程度上推动了铁矿的上涨。但从中长期来看，目前铁矿价格已处在高位，且在“碳达峰”和环保限产的大背景下，各地区的压产政策不断趋严，一旦压产政策落地，则铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态。所以随着铁矿绝对价格的不断增高，风险也在进一步加剧，因此需控制好仓位，后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期中性观望为主，长期持偏空观点。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：多成材空铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：虚值买入09看跌期权或卖出虚值09看涨期权

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

Iron ore: long position and short position play against each other, while iron ore market fluctuates.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the spot price of iron ore was stable, and the overall futures were stable and strong. The main contract rose first and fell in the afternoon, finally closing at 1,337 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 30.5 yuan/ton or 2.3% from the closing price of the previous trading day, with open interest increasing 8,516 lots. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Qingdao Port was temporarily stable on the 12th. PB fine at Qingdao Port was reported at 1,640 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 10 yuan/ton. The overall spot market fluctuated within a narrow range. The market sentiment was mainly cautious and participants were holding their current positions. The overall transaction was average.

This week, various steel mills have successively introduced product price adjustment policies for June. The prices of various steel products have been adjusted to varying degrees. Steel prices are still rising, which also supports the raw materials. On the other hand, as the profits of steel mills increase, in order to increase the output of molten iron, steel is more inclined to use high-grade ore, which makes the price difference between different quality ores continue to expand. Moreover, steel mills are still active in production driven by high profits, and the demand for iron ore has performed well in stages. On the 11th, DCE issued the "Announcement on Soliciting Opinions on Iron Ore Futures Contracts and Relevant Rules Amendments". The announcement made adjustments to iron ore delivery quality indicators, brand premiums and discounts, and delivery methods.

On the 12th, the central bank data showed that the balance of broad money (M2) was 226.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and the growth rate was 1.3 percentage points lower than the end of the previous month, and 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the increase in social financing in April was 1.85 trillion yuan, 1.25 trillion yuan less than the same period last year, and 179.7 billion yuan more than the same period in 2019. Wang Yiming, a member of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, said that although the growth rate of M2 and social financing has fallen from last year’s high base, it has continued to be at a reasonable level on average over two years, reflecting the continuity, stability, and availability of persistent monetary policy.

On the whole, steel is in the peak season of consumption, and the overall demand is relatively strong. Driven by high profits, steel mills are still highly motivated to produce, forming a certain degree of support for the raw material side. The uncertainty of Sino-Australian relations has triggered recent market concerns about the supply of iron ore, which has also promoted the rise of iron ore to a certain extent. However, in the medium and long term, the price of iron ore is currently at a high level, and under the background of "carbon peak" and environmental protection of production restrictions, the production limitation policies in various regions have become more stringent. Once the policy of restricting production is implemented, iron ore demand will gradually weaken, and iron ore is likely to enter a state of surplus. Therefore, as the absolute price of iron ore continues to increase, the risk is further intensified. Therefore, the position needs to be controlled, and more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level in the future. We recommend market participants to neutrally hold their current positions in the short term and to be bearish in the long run.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run

Cross-species: go long position of thread or hot-rolled coil and short position of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: but at out-of-value 09 put options or sell at out-of-value 09 call options

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

橡胶：到港量少，港口库存延续下滑

12号，RU主力收盘14290（+125）元/吨，混合胶报价12525元/吨（+125），主力合约基差-740元/吨（-175）；前二十主力多头持仓109059（+2932），空头持仓173271（+7499），净空持仓64212（+4567）。

12号，NR主力收盘价11525（+125）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1670（-5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1637.5美元/吨（-12.5），印尼标胶1605（-10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-370（-49）元/吨。

截至5月7日：交易所总库存178182（-10），交易所仓单176140（-100）。

原料：生胶片61.5（0），杯胶47（0），胶水65.5（0)，烟片68.35（-0.37）。

截止5月6日，国内全钢胎开工率为51.93%（-21.03%），国内半钢胎开工率为55.30%(-15.59%）。

观点：昨天胶价小幅反弹，主要在周边氛围带动下。国内云南主产区因干胶产出较少，带来原料价格持续回升，而海南主产区处于正常开割中，原料较为充裕，目前原料价格低于云南。泰国原料价格小幅波动，总体成本端支撑仍较强，短期限制了橡胶的下方空间。需求端有转弱迹象，国内轮胎厂开工率呈小幅回落状态，轮胎厂及终端经销商库存回升，或反映需求疲弱状态。但因短期供应影响更大，最新国内港口库存延续下降趋势。在6月之后，海内外产量开始释放之际，国内港口库存去化趋势才能得到扭转。橡胶没有更多新的利好支撑，短期或更多震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

Rubber: The number of arrivals in the port is small, and the port inventory continues to decline.

On May 12, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,290 (+125) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,525 (+125) yuan/ton, the basis of most-active contract was -740 yuan/ton (-175); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 109,059 (+2,932) lots and the short position was 173,271 (+7,499) lots, net short position was 64,212 (+4,567).

On May 12, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,525 (+125) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,670 (-5) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,637.5 (-12.5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,605 (-10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract was -370 (-49) yuan/ton.

As of May 7: the total inventory of the exchange was 178,182 (-10) lots, and the warehouse receipts of the exchange were 176,140 (-100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 61.5 (0), cup lump 47 (0), latex 65.5 (0), RSS3 68.35 (-0.37).

As of May 6, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 51.93% (-21.03%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 55.30% (-15.59%).

Opinion: The rubber price rebounded slightly yesterday, mainly driven by the surrounding sentiment. The main production areas in Yunnan Province have a low output of dry rubber, which has caused raw material prices to continue to rise. However, the main production area in Hainan is under normal delivery and the raw materials are relatively abundant, and the current raw material prices are lower than in Yunnan. The price of raw materials in Thailand fluctuates slightly, and the overall cost support is still strong, which limits the downside space of rubber in the short term. There are signs of weakening on the demand side. The operating rate of domestic tire factories has declined slightly, and the inventory of tire factories and terminal dealers has rebounded, which may reflect the weak demand. However, due to the greater impact of short-term supply, the latest domestic port inventory continues the downward trend. After June, when production at home and abroad begins to be released, the trend of destocking at domestic ports can be reversed. There is no more new positive support for rubber, and more fluctuations might be witnessed in the short term.

Strategy: neutrally

Risks: production increases significantly, inventory continues to accumulate, and demand falls sharply, etc.

原油：EIA原油库存小幅下降，IEA月报仍偏乐观

尽管从平衡表来看，二三季度供应增长幅度低于需求增长幅度，石油市场依然维持库存去化，基本面展望依然偏向乐观，但从当前的现货市场来看，依然处于相对疲软的状态，由于中国买兴未完全恢复，叠加当前东西区套利活动减少（印度疫情以及Brent Dubai价差太宽），导致西区资源相对过剩，目前不管是美国出口原油还是西非原油均增加了对欧洲炼厂的销售力度，这使得即便是在Forties油田大修的背景下，布伦特的月差结构在近期明显走弱，现货市场是期货市场的压舱石，所以在现货市场相对偏弱的情况下，期货市场的涨幅也会受到牵制，我们认为未来依然需要两股力量来平衡市场，一方面是中国买兴的回归，另一方面是美国原油出口下滑，但目前来看市场尚未出现相关迹象。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

Crude oil: EIA crude oil inventories declined slightly, and the IEA monthly report is still optimistic.

Although from the perspective of the balance sheet, the growth rate of supply in the second and third quarters was lower than the growth rate of demand, the oil market still maintained destocking, and the fundamental outlook remained optimistic. However, judging from the current spot market, it is still in a relatively weak state. As the buying interest in China has not fully recovered, and the current arbitrage activities in the east and west regions have been reduced (the India epidemic and the Brent Dubai spread is too wide), the resources in the west region are relatively surplus. At present, both US crude oil exports and West African crude oil have increased their sales to European refineries. This has made Brent's monthly difference structure significantly weaker in the near future even in the context of the Forties oilfield overhaul. The spot market is the foundation of the futures market, so when the spot market is relatively weak, the growth of the futures market will also be restrained. We believe that two forces are still needed to balance the market in the future: on the one hand, is the return of buying interest in China, and on the other hand, is the decline in US crude oil exports. But at present, there are no relevant signs in the market.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk: None

铜：CPI数据靓丽 通胀预期得到一定兑现

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日距离交割仅剩下3个交易日，盘面基差在昨日小幅收窄后，今日又重新回到contango290-320元/吨，引来市场贸易买盘正套买现抛期，贸易商主导市场，交投活跃度小幅提升。平水铜早市始报于贴水90元/吨试探市场，买卖双方心理价位差距过大，价格难有接受度，外加盘面重新回到高位运行，持货商欲调价出货迅速调价至贴水110-100元/吨依旧难见大量交投，甚至听闻部分可压价至贴水120元/吨成交。第二时段后，随着盘面基差一度扩大至contango330元/吨附近，引来部分买盘使贴水收窄，尾盘整体报价已然回到贴水100元/吨，甚至难觅贴水110元/吨货源。好铜受到交割的临近整体报价持续坚挺，ENM等没有110元/吨交割补贴的品牌亦维持在贴水40元/吨，贵溪铜听闻平水成交。湿法铜维持较为稀缺的货源，整体报价依旧较为坚挺维持在贴水160-140元/吨，但由于整体性价比不及OLEN，PASAR等品牌，市场青睐度有限，实际成交寥寥。

观点：昨日，美国方面所公布的4月CPI数据录得4.2%，大幅高于前值以及市场预期，不过这又在很大程度上兑现了此前市场的通胀预期。这使得包括铜在内的受益于通胀预期正向反馈的有色品种呈现出些许回落。后市需重点关注美联储方面对于当下货币政策导向的描述。不过预计当下宽松货币政策的导向并不至于立刻发生改变。而在基本面方面，也需要重点关注在价格回落之际，下游采购是否能够出现一定的恢复。由于目前2季度仍处于传统的消费旺季之中，因此当下对于铜品种而言，暂时仍维持逢低买入的建议。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外盘反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期

Copper: CPI data is positive, and inflation expectations have been fulfilled to a certain extent.

Spot market: According to SMM, there were only 3 trading days left before delivery yesterday. After the market margin narrowed slightly yesterday, it returned to contango at 290-320 yuan/ton today, attracting market trade buyers to buy spot and sell futures. Traders dominate the market, and trading activity has increased slightly. Flat copper started to report at a discount of 90 yuan/ton in the morning session. The psychological price gap between buyers and sellers is too large, and the price is difficult to accept. In addition, the market has returned to high levels, and the holders want to adjust the price of shipments and quickly adjusted the price to a discount of 110-100 yuan/ton, but it is still difficult to see a large number of transactions, and some can even be sold at a discount of 120 yuan/ton. After the second period, as the market basis once expanded to around the contango of 330 yuan/ton, some buying orders were attracted, narrowing the discount level. The overall quotation of the market has returned to a discount of 100 yuan/ton, and it is even difficult to find a source of a discount of 110 yuan/ton. The overall quotation of good copper continued to be firm due to the impact of closing delivery date. Brands that did not have a 110 yuan/ton delivery subsidy, such as ENM, also maintained a discount of 40 yuan/ton. Wet-process copper maintains a relatively scarce supply, and the overall quotation is still relatively strong and maintained at a discount of 160-140 yuan/ton. However, because the overall price-performance ratio is not as good as Olen, PASAR and other brands, the market favor is limited, and the actual transactions are few.

Opinion: Yesterday, the April CPI data released by the United States recorded 4.2%, which was significantly higher than the previous value and market expectations, but this has largely fulfilled the previous market's inflation expectations. This makes non-ferrous products, including copper, which benefited from the positive feedback of inflation expectations, showed a slight decline. The market outlook needs to focus on the Fed’s description of the current monetary policy orientation. However, the current orientation of loose monetary policy is not expected to change immediately. In terms of fundamentals, we also need to focus on whether downstream procurement can recover to a certain extent when prices fall. As the current second quarter is still in the traditional peak consumption season, for the current copper varieties, the recommendation to buy when price is low is still maintained for the time being.

Medium- and long-term perspective: In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. Dollar index trend

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations

PTA：能化板块上涨带动PTA反弹

平衡表展望：4月大幅去库，进入5月缓和为小幅至中幅去库，去库速率有所减缓；具体关注后续逸盛是否有更多额外检修加剧去库幅度；然而PX5月转为小幅去库预期，关注调油需求对PX的支撑。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：9-1价差逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。

PTA: The rise in the energy and chemical sector drove the PTA to rebound.

Balance sheet outlook: In April, the inventory was largely destocked, and in May it eased to a small to medium destocking, and the destocking rate has slowed down; and pay particular attention to whether Yisheng will have more additional maintenance to increase the de-stocking; however, PX changed to a slight destocking expectation in May, focusing on the support of oil adjusting demand for PX.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan in April, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.