Iron ore: Rumors spread in the market, and various long and short operations appeared.

Opinion and logic:

In terms of spot, port traders are still enthusiastic about making offers, and the quotation fluctuated range-bound widely, generally rising by 10 to 55 yuan/ton. However, due to the market pulled back from high price levels and the huge fluctuations recently, traders quote frequently to support prices, but the market’s wait-and-see attitude is relatively strong, and the speculative market is sluggish, resulting in almost no transactions. Due to the tight trade resources of medium and high-grade products, the profits of steel mills are relatively high, and some steel mills purchase more tend to medium and high-grade resources.

In terms of futures, the whole day experienced fluctuations at high levels, with the open interest finally increased by more than 20,000 lots. The most-active 09 contract closed at 1,197.5 yuan, and the long and short competition near the 1,200 yuan mark was obvious. Recently, various news in the market have spread, and it is difficult to judge for a while. In the face of the high profits of steel rolling and the excessively rising steel prices, the market has doubts about whether the subsequent production restriction policy can be effectively implemented. Short-profit traders have performed significantly in the past two days.

On the whole, due to the impact of macroeconomics and policies, iron ore prices have fluctuated sharply when the policies cannot be effectively falsified, which also reflects the extreme instability of current market investment sentiment. From the perspective of short term, steel is in the peak season of consumption, and the overall demand is relatively strong. Driven by high profits, steel mills are still highly motivated to produce, forming a certain degree of support for the raw material side. The uncertainty of Sino-Australian relations has triggered recent market concerns about the supply of iron ore, which has also promoted the rise of iron ore to a certain extent. However, in the medium and long term, the price of iron ore is currently at a high level, and under the background of "carbon peak" and environmental protection of production restrictions, the production limitation policies in various regions have become more stringent. Once the policy of restricting production is implemented, iron ore demand will gradually weaken, and iron ore is likely to enter a state of surplus. As the price of iron ore continues to rise, the fear of high price levels in the market continues to spread, and the risks are further increasing. Therefore, the position needs to be controlled, and more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level in the future. We recommend market participants to neutrally hold their current positions in the short term and to be bearish in the long run.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

Rubber: The output of raw materials increased, and the price of rubber fell slightly.

On May 17, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,360 (+80) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 11,950 (-50) yuan/ton, the basis of most-active contract was -485 yuan/ton (-130); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 115,369 (-2,796) lots and the short position was 165,653 (-3,564) lots, net short position was 50,284 (-768).

On May 17, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,850 (+110) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,680 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,670 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,645 (+5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract was -271 (-113) yuan/ton.

As of May 14: the total inventory of exchanges was 178,432 (+250) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchanges were 176,240 (+100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 63.27 (0), cup lump 45 (-1), latex 63 (-2.5), RSS3 67.37 (+0.04).

As of May 13, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 68.6% (+16.67%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 64.73% (+9.43%).

Opinion: The price of rubber fluctuated within a narrow range yesterday. After the sharp decline last week, the non-standard price difference of Shanghai rubber has narrowed to around 1,000 yuan/ton. The logic of the short-term basis convergence may be basically reflected. At present, the supply at home and abroad is generally in the initial stage. The main production areas in Hainan are abundant in raw materials, while in Yunnan, rubber trees have not been fully delivered and the supply of raw materials is limited, causing the prices of raw materials to continue to rise. However, Thailand has already started delivering, and the better phenological conditions have allowed the release of rubber to be normal, and the price of raw materials has fallen. However, the profits of overseas processing plants have been compressed, the enthusiasm for production has been hindered, and the supply side is intertwined with long and short. The domestic demand side is weaker than the previous month, and there is no more new positive support for rubber, leading more fluctuations in the short term.

Strategy: neutrally

Risks: production increases significantly, inventory continues to accumulate, and demand falls sharply, etc.

Crude oil: Customs levies excise duties on mixed aromatics, light cycle oil and diluted asphalt.

Last week, the customs announced that it would impose a consumption tax on imported mixed aromatics, light cycle oil and diluted asphalt. Mixed aromatics and light cycle oil are mainly imported into the country as refined oil blending components. In 2020, the total import of mixed aromatics will be about 6.2 million tons, and light cycle oil will be about 15.80 million tons. Although the reduction in the import of blending materials caused by the consumption tax may cause a gap in supply and demand in some regions, from a national perspective, this part can be supplemented by the increase in the operating rate of the refinery and the decrease in the export of refined oil, especially in the domestic large-scale refinery. Especially in the context of the commissioning of large domestic refining and chemical projects, we believe that there will be no major gap in the total amount of refined oil, but there may be structural or regional shortages. There is a ceiling in the rise of domestic refined oil prices. For diluted bitumen, it is more of a substitute for imported crude oil. After the consumption tax is imposed, local refineries will rely more on crude oil imports within quotas. As for the international market, Venezuela’s pipeline to China through diluted bitumen is basically stuck, and refineries need to look for other heavy oil import resources.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk: None

Copper: The US dollar is still weak, and copper prices remain strong.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the market opened low and then rose highly yesterday, with the daily moving average gradually moving upwards. The 06 contract stood at 74,600 yuan/ton and fluctuated upward, breaking through the 75,000 yuan/ton mark in late afternoon trading, surging up to 75,150 yuan/ton and then closing at a high level, making it fall back to around 74,950 yuan/ton. Although the monthly difference fluctuates greatly, the quotation for the next month is relatively stable. Flat copper is stable at a discount of 220-200 yuan/ton, good copper is stable at a discount of about 160 yuan/ton, Bulgaria and ISA can reach a discount of 240-250 yuan/ton, and the source of wet-process copper resource outflow is quite scarce. There is a DMK discount of 280-270 for reference. A-shares are booming, the market is beginning to stabilize, and most of the non-ferrous products are booming. The performance of copper futures hesitated slightly, but the spot performance was acceptable. Traders aimed to lock in the price difference of more than 300 yuan/ton and operates at a discount of more than 200 yuan/ton, laying the foundation for the monthly change. The downstream is in a stable and upward trend, and when the discount can be expanded, the rigid demand will increase slightly. The sharp increase in SHFE inventory last Friday showed the delivery characteristics of the month-change delivery period. The import window for imported copper was closed for a long time, resulting in a limited amount of imported copper in the warehouse. Holders have no intention of continuing to expand the discount after the month-change. Under the premise that the long structure of the copper market remains unchanged, the current consolidation status of the market has given downstream opportunities to replenish stocks when price hits a low. It is expected that after the month change tomorrow, the quotation with a discount of around 200 yuan/ton will attract buyers to continue to increase steadily.

Opinion: Yesterday the expectation of the Fed to reduce the size of debt purchases caused by the higher-than-expected inflation-related data last week is gradually being digested. The US dollar index still maintains a relatively weak pattern, which shows certain support for the non-ferrous metal sector including copper as a whole. In terms of fundamentals, the import window is currently closed, and after the previous copper price correction, some buying demand has also emerged. If copper prices continue to fall, then downstream purchases are expected to be more active, which will support copper prices. Therefore, in the current context, it is still recommended to buy when price hits a low.

Medium- and long-term perspective: In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. Dollar index trend

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations

PTA: The plant resumed work, and polyester production and sales continued to weaken.

Balance sheet outlook: Filament is gradually overhauled, and demand will be lowered from May to June; The market shifts to a small destocking in May, the destocking rate slowed down, and processing fees are expected to weaken; PX supply is still tight in May-June, pay attention to the support of oil adjustment demand for PX.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: hold the current position (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：传言漫天，多空交织

观点与逻辑：

现货方面，港口贸易商报盘积极性尚可，报价区间宽幅震荡，普遍上涨10~55元/吨。但是由于近期市场高位回落波动巨大，贸易商报盘挺价明显，但是市场观望心态较浓，投机盘低迷几乎无成交，由于中高品贸易资源偏紧，钢厂利润偏高，部分钢厂采购更倾向中高品资源。

期货方面，全天经历减仓到增仓2万余张震荡高走，主力09合约收于1197.5元，1200元整数关口附近多空争夺洗盘明显。近来市场各种消息蔓延，一时难以证伪，面对轧钢高额利润以及过快上涨的钢价，市场对后续能否有效执行压产政策产生怀疑，空利润交易者在近两日表现明显。

整体来看，受宏观经济和政策影响，在政策面尚无法有效证伪的情况下，铁矿价格呈现大幅震荡，也侧面反映了目前市场投资情绪的极不稳定。从短期来看，钢材正处于消费旺季，整体需求韧性较强，且在高利润的驱动下，钢厂的生产积极性依旧较高，对原料端形成一定支持，加之中澳关系的不确定性，引发近期市场对于铁矿供应的担忧，也从一定程度上推动了铁矿的上涨。但从中长期来看，目前铁矿价格已处在高位，且在“碳达峰”和环保限产的大背景下，各地区的压产政策不断趋严，一旦压产政策落地，则铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态。随着铁矿价格的不断上涨，市场的恐高情绪持续蔓延，风险也在进一步加大。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期中性观望为主，长期持偏空观点。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

橡胶： 原料产出增加，胶水价格小幅回落

17号，RU主力收盘13360（+80）元/吨，混合胶报价11950元/吨（-50），主力合约基差-485元/吨（-130）；前二十主力多头持仓115369（-2796），空头持仓165653（-3564），净空持仓50284（-768）。

17号，NR主力收盘价10850（+110）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1680（+5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1670美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1645（+5）美元/吨。主力合约基差-271（-113）元/吨。

截至5月14日：交易所总库存178432（+250），交易所仓单176240（+100）。

原料：生胶片63.27（0），杯胶45（-1），胶水63（-2.5)，烟片67.37（+0.04）。

截止5月13日，国内全钢胎开工率为68.6%（+16.67%），国内半钢胎开工率为64.73%(+9.43%）。

观点：昨天胶价窄幅波动，随着上周大幅下行之后，沪胶非标价差已经缩窄到1000元/吨附近，短期基差回归的逻辑或基本反映。当下海内外总体处于供应初期，国内海南主产区原料充裕，云南则因橡胶树尚未全面开割，原料供应有限，造成原料价格持续上扬，而泰国目前已经开割，物候条件较好使得胶水释放正常，原料价格有所回落，但海外加工厂利润压缩，生产积极性受阻，供应端多空交织。需求端国内环比走弱，橡胶没有更多新的利好支撑，短期或更多震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：海关对混芳、轻循与稀释沥青征收消费税

上周海关公告对进口混芳、轻循和稀释沥青征收消费税，混芳与轻循主要是作为成品油调和组分进口到国内，2020年混芳进口总量约620万吨，轻循约1580万吨，虽然征收消费税导致的调油料进口削减可能造成部分地区产生供需缺口，但从全国来看，这一部分可以靠炼厂开工率提升以及成品油出口减少来补足，尤其是在国内大炼化项目投产的背景下，我们认为成品油总量上不会出现大的缺口，但可能出现结构性或者地区性短缺，国内成品油价格上涨存在天花板。而对于稀释沥青而言，更多是作为进口原油的替代品，在加征消费税后，地方炼厂会更加依赖配额内原油进口，而对于国际市场而言，委内瑞拉通过稀释沥青的进口到中国的管道基本卡死，炼厂需要寻找其他重质油进口资源。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：美元依然偏弱 铜价维持偏强格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日盘面呈现低开高走态势，重心立足日均线逐渐上移，06合约立足74600元/吨震荡向上，午市尾盘突破75000元/吨关口，冲高75150元/吨后高位了结令其回落于74950元/吨附近整理，月差波动虽然很大，但次月报价却相对稳定，平水铜稳定于贴水220-200元/吨，好铜则持稳于贴水160元/吨左右，保加利亚及ISA可及贴水240-250元/吨，湿法铜流出货源相当稀少，少闻报价，可有DMK贴水280-270做相关参考。A股飘红，市场初显企稳态势，有色品种大多飘红，期铜表现略显踌躇，但现货表现尚可，贸易商目标锁定价差在300元/吨以上时贴水200元/吨以上进行操作，为换月后打下基础，下游在盘面稳中向上的态势中，乘贴水可扩之际，刚需略增。上周五SHFE库存的大增表现了换月交割期的交割特征，进口铜的进口窗口长时间关闭，令进口铜入库量有限，换月后持货商无意会继续扩大贴水，铜市多头结构未变的前提下，目前盘面的整固整理状态，给了下游逢低补货的机会。预计明日换月后，贴水在200元/吨附近的报价将吸引买盘继续稳步增加。

观点：昨日，经济数据方面仍相对稀疏，而由于上周通胀相关数据超预期导致的对于美联储缩减购债规模的预期也正被逐渐消化。美元指数仍然维持相对偏弱格局，这对于包括铜在内的有色金属板块整体呈现出一定支撑。而在基本面方面，目前进口窗口关闭，并且在此前铜价回调之后，也涌现出了部分的买盘需求，若铜价继续出现回落，那么预计下游采购或将更加活跃，从而对于铜价产生支撑，因此在当下背景下，依然建议以逢低买入的思路为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外盘反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期

PTA：装置复工，聚酯产销持续偏弱

平衡表展望：长丝逐步检修，5-6月需求下修，5月转为小幅去库，去库速率放缓，加工费预期转弱；PX5-6月仍偏紧，关注调油需求对PX的支撑

策略建议：（1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。