Iron ore: Rumors spread in the market, and various long and short operations appeared.
Opinion and logic:
In terms of spot, port traders are still enthusiastic about making offers, and the quotation fluctuated range-bound widely, generally rising by 10 to 55 yuan/ton. However, due to the market pulled back from high price levels and the huge fluctuations recently, traders quote frequently to support prices, but the market’s wait-and-see attitude is relatively strong, and the speculative market is sluggish, resulting in almost no transactions. Due to the tight trade resources of medium and high-grade products, the profits of steel mills are relatively high, and some steel mills purchase more tend to medium and high-grade resources.
In terms of futures, the whole day experienced fluctuations at high levels, with the open interest finally increased by more than 20,000 lots. The most-active 09 contract closed at 1,197.5 yuan, and the long and short competition near the 1,200 yuan mark was obvious. Recently, various news in the market have spread, and it is difficult to judge for a while. In the face of the high profits of steel rolling and the excessively rising steel prices, the market has doubts about whether the subsequent production restriction policy can be effectively implemented. Short-profit traders have performed significantly in the past two days.
On the whole, due to the impact of macroeconomics and policies, iron ore prices have fluctuated sharply when the policies cannot be effectively falsified, which also reflects the extreme instability of current market investment sentiment. From the perspective of short term, steel is in the peak season of consumption, and the overall demand is relatively strong. Driven by high profits, steel mills are still highly motivated to produce, forming a certain degree of support for the raw material side. The uncertainty of Sino-Australian relations has triggered recent market concerns about the supply of iron ore, which has also promoted the rise of iron ore to a certain extent. However, in the medium and long term, the price of iron ore is currently at a high level, and under the background of "carbon peak" and environmental protection of production restrictions, the production limitation policies in various regions have become more stringent. Once the policy of restricting production is implemented, iron ore demand will gradually weaken, and iron ore is likely to enter a state of surplus. As the price of iron ore continues to rise, the fear of high price levels in the market continues to spread, and the risks are further increasing. Therefore, the position needs to be controlled, and more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level in the future. We recommend market participants to neutrally hold their current positions in the short term and to be bearish in the long run.
Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.
Rubber: The output of raw materials increased, and the price of rubber fell slightly.
On May 17, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,360 (+80) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 11,950 (-50) yuan/ton, the basis of most-active contract was -485 yuan/ton (-130); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 115,369 (-2,796) lots and the short position was 165,653 (-3,564) lots, net short position was 50,284 (-768).
On May 17, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,850 (+110) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,680 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,670 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,645 (+5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract was -271 (-113) yuan/ton.
As of May 14: the total inventory of exchanges was 178,432 (+250) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchanges were 176,240 (+100) lots.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 63.27 (0), cup lump 45 (-1), latex 63 (-2.5), RSS3 67.37 (+0.04).
As of May 13, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 68.6% (+16.67%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 64.73% (+9.43%).
Opinion: The price of rubber fluctuated within a narrow range yesterday. After the sharp decline last week, the non-standard price difference of Shanghai rubber has narrowed to around 1,000 yuan/ton. The logic of the short-term basis convergence may be basically reflected. At present, the supply at home and abroad is generally in the initial stage. The main production areas in Hainan are abundant in raw materials, while in Yunnan, rubber trees have not been fully delivered and the supply of raw materials is limited, causing the prices of raw materials to continue to rise. However, Thailand has already started delivering, and the better phenological conditions have allowed the release of rubber to be normal, and the price of raw materials has fallen. However, the profits of overseas processing plants have been compressed, the enthusiasm for production has been hindered, and the supply side is intertwined with long and short. The domestic demand side is weaker than the previous month, and there is no more new positive support for rubber, leading more fluctuations in the short term.
Risks: production increases significantly, inventory continues to accumulate, and demand falls sharply, etc.
Crude oil: Customs levies excise duties on mixed aromatics, light cycle oil and diluted asphalt.
Last week, the customs announced that it would impose a consumption tax on imported mixed aromatics, light cycle oil and diluted asphalt. Mixed aromatics and light cycle oil are mainly imported into the country as refined oil blending components. In 2020, the total import of mixed aromatics will be about 6.2 million tons, and light cycle oil will be about 15.80 million tons. Although the reduction in the import of blending materials caused by the consumption tax may cause a gap in supply and demand in some regions, from a national perspective, this part can be supplemented by the increase in the operating rate of the refinery and the decrease in the export of refined oil, especially in the domestic large-scale refinery. Especially in the context of the commissioning of large domestic refining and chemical projects, we believe that there will be no major gap in the total amount of refined oil, but there may be structural or regional shortages. There is a ceiling in the rise of domestic refined oil prices. For diluted bitumen, it is more of a substitute for imported crude oil. After the consumption tax is imposed, local refineries will rely more on crude oil imports within quotas. As for the international market, Venezuela’s pipeline to China through diluted bitumen is basically stuck, and refineries need to look for other heavy oil import resources.
Copper: The US dollar is still weak, and copper prices remain strong.
In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the market opened low and then rose highly yesterday, with the daily moving average gradually moving upwards. The 06 contract stood at 74,600 yuan/ton and fluctuated upward, breaking through the 75,000 yuan/ton mark in late afternoon trading, surging up to 75,150 yuan/ton and then closing at a high level, making it fall back to around 74,950 yuan/ton. Although the monthly difference fluctuates greatly, the quotation for the next month is relatively stable. Flat copper is stable at a discount of 220-200 yuan/ton, good copper is stable at a discount of about 160 yuan/ton, Bulgaria and ISA can reach a discount of 240-250 yuan/ton, and the source of wet-process copper resource outflow is quite scarce. There is a DMK discount of 280-270 for reference. A-shares are booming, the market is beginning to stabilize, and most of the non-ferrous products are booming. The performance of copper futures hesitated slightly, but the spot performance was acceptable. Traders aimed to lock in the price difference of more than 300 yuan/ton and operates at a discount of more than 200 yuan/ton, laying the foundation for the monthly change. The downstream is in a stable and upward trend, and when the discount can be expanded, the rigid demand will increase slightly. The sharp increase in SHFE inventory last Friday showed the delivery characteristics of the month-change delivery period. The import window for imported copper was closed for a long time, resulting in a limited amount of imported copper in the warehouse. Holders have no intention of continuing to expand the discount after the month-change. Under the premise that the long structure of the copper market remains unchanged, the current consolidation status of the market has given downstream opportunities to replenish stocks when price hits a low. It is expected that after the month change tomorrow, the quotation with a discount of around 200 yuan/ton will attract buyers to continue to increase steadily.
Opinion: Yesterday the expectation of the Fed to reduce the size of debt purchases caused by the higher-than-expected inflation-related data last week is gradually being digested. The US dollar index still maintains a relatively weak pattern, which shows certain support for the non-ferrous metal sector including copper as a whole. In terms of fundamentals, the import window is currently closed, and after the previous copper price correction, some buying demand has also emerged. If copper prices continue to fall, then downstream purchases are expected to be more active, which will support copper prices. Therefore, in the current context, it is still recommended to buy when price hits a low.
Medium- and long-term perspective: In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.
1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options
1. Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. Dollar index trend
3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations
PTA: The plant resumed work, and polyester production and sales continued to weaken.
Balance sheet outlook: Filament is gradually overhauled, and demand will be lowered from May to June; The market shifts to a small destocking in May, the destocking rate slowed down, and processing fees are expected to weaken; PX supply is still tight in May-June, pay attention to the support of oil adjustment demand for PX.
Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: hold the current position (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.
Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.
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