Iron ore: pay attention to the regulation policy and production restriction policy under the background of "carbon neutrality".

Opinion and logic:

Last weekend, due to short-term inflation exceeding expectations, coupled with the fear of high prices in the ferrous metals industry chain, the overall commodity market pulled back broadly, especially for the ferrous products. As of this week, iron ore futures are gradually being repaired. The open interest of the most-active contracts increased significantly, closing at 1,242.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 45.5 yuan/ton or 3.76% from the closing price of the previous trading day, with open interest gaining 5,338 lots.

In terms of spot, the port price of imported ore in the early trading on the 18th was temporarily stable. Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,548 yuan/ton, an increase of 20/ton compared to yesterday. Port traders are still enthusiastic about making offers, and the quotation range is generally maintained at 10-20 yuan/ton. However, due to the sharp decline from high levels and large fluctuations in the recent market, the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and speculative transactions are sluggish. In terms of preference, due to the tight resources of steel mills in the trade of medium and high grade products and high profits for steel mills, some steel mills are more inclined to purchase medium and high grade resources.

On the supply side, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will increase the exploration and development of iron ore resources, actively investigate the situation of steel and iron ore, and is speeding up the preparation of an action plan for peaking carbon emissions by 2030. On the one hand, it will reduce the degree of external dependence; On the other hand, the major premise of "carbon neutrality" will remain unchanged, and a loosening and tightening bilateral regulation policy will be carried out.

On the demand side, from a short-term perspective, although the April data shows that the new construction area data is poor, sales still remain hot. From a cyclical perspective, steel is in the peak season of consumption, and the overall demand is relatively strong. Driven by high profits, steel mills are still highly motivated to produce, forming a certain degree of support for the raw material side. The uncertainty of Sino-Australian relations has triggered recent market concerns about the supply of iron ore, which has also promoted the rise of iron ore to a certain extent. However, in the medium and long term, the price of iron ore is currently at a high level, and under the background of "carbon peak" and environmental protection of production restrictions, the production limitation policies in various regions have become more stringent. Once the policy of restricting production is implemented, iron ore demand will gradually weaken, and iron ore is likely to enter a state of surplus. As the price of iron ore continues to rise, the fear of high price levels in the market continues to spread, and the risks are further increasing. Therefore, the position needs to be controlled, and more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level in the future. We recommend market participants to neutrally hold their current positions in the short term and to be bearish in the long run.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

Rubber: The number of arrivals at the port is small, and port inventory continues to decline.

On May 18, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,390 (+30) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,150 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of most-active contract was -515 yuan/ton (-30); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 115,369 (-2,796) lots and the short position was 165,653 (-3,564) lots, net short position was 50,284 (-768).

On May 18, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,790 (-60) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,680 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,670 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,645 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract was -203 (+68) yuan/ton.

As of May 14: the total inventory of exchanges was 178,432 (+250) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchanges were 176,240 (+100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 63.27 (0), cup lump 45 (0), latex 63.5 (0), RSS3 67.86 (+0.49).

As of May 13, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 68.6% (+16.67%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 64.73% (+9.43%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the price of rubber remained fluctuating within a narrow range. Following the sharp drop last week, the current price gap between spot and futures market has further narrowed. The latest port inventory continues to decline, mainly due to fewer arrivals. Due to the early overseas delivering stage, raw materials output is limited. At present, the supply at home and abroad is showing a different pattern. The main production areas in Hainan are abundant in raw materials, while in Yunnan, rubber trees have not been fully delivered and the supply of raw materials is limited, causing the prices of raw materials to continue to rise. However, Thailand has already started delivering, and the better phenological conditions have allowed the release of rubber to be normal, and the price of raw materials has fallen. However, the profits of overseas processing plants have been compressed, the enthusiasm for production has been hindered, and the supply side is intertwined with long and short. The domestic demand side is weaker than the previous month, and there is no more new positive support for rubber, leading more fluctuations in the short term.

Strategy: neutrally

Risks: production increases significantly, inventory continues to accumulate, and demand falls sharply, etc.

Crude oil: European demand continues to pick up, and diesel cracking spreads have strengthened significantly.

Recently, the crack spread of refined oil has continued to strengthen, especially the figure for European diesel oil to Brent. At the same time, we have also observed that the net long positions of European diesel funds have soared. We believe that this is not entirely due to the bullish boost brought about by the previous closure of the Colonial pipeline, but more driven by the rebound in European oil demand. In the past month, the traffic congestion index in Europe has continued to soar, and is currently back to around 80%. With the gradual lifting of travel restrictions in Europe, it is expected that European demand will improve further in the future. In addition, from the perspective of the supply side, as the Asia-Pacific and Middle East refineries were in a centralized overhaul period in April, diesel exports to Europe were significantly reduced, which is also one of the reasons for boosting European diesel prices. At present, the pattern of global refined oil products has shifted from strong gasoline and weak diesel to the reversed pattern of weak gasoline and strong diesel.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk: None

Copper: Spot transactions are still relatively sluggish.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, after the month change, holders try to narrow the discount to support the price. At the beginning of the morning market, flat copper was quoted at a discount of around 170 yuan/ton, and good copper was at a discount of around 80 yuan/ton. Jinchuan Company took the lead in bidding a premium of 90 yuan/ton for Jinchuan's large slaps, which led to a sharp increase of 1,000 yuan on the market. The discount was not expanded and reversely narrowed, causing the market was reluctant to accept. At nearly 10 o'clock, some holders took the lead in restarting the expansion of discounts. After the price discount of 190 yuan/ton was reported, the flat copper with a discount of 200 yuan/ton was exposed after the opening of the second period. At around 11 o'clock, when the market rushed straight to 76,000 yuan/ton, there was an outflow of 210 yuan/ton of flat copper premium. Good copper, Guixi and CCC-P have low resources and high prices, and the quotations rarely change. Jinchuan large slaps was finally adjusted to a discount of 110-100 yuan/ton, and ENM can have a premium up to 140-120 yuan/ton. Wet-process copper only has a small amount of ESOX with a discount of 240-220 yuan/ton. Bulgaria and DMK have increased their willingness to exchange spot due to the high market, and the discount can be as large as about 250 yuan/ton.

Opinion: Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Yellen defended President Biden’s 2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus policy, which can reflect that the Biden administration is still working hard to implement various fiscal stimulus policies. This is the same for the overall non-ferrous sector. It is a relatively favorable factor. In terms of fundamentals, it was found yesterday that the situation of holders adjusting premiums and discounts to support price has eased. However, because copper prices are still relatively high and the enthusiasm for downstream purchases is still limited, it is necessary to focus on whether downstream purchases will be stimulated if prices fall behind in the near future. At the same time, look for buying opportunities when the price drops and the premium and discount quotations are correspondingly raised.

Medium- and long-term perspective: In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. Dollar index trend

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations

PTA: Crude oil promotes PTA cost-push increases.

Balance sheet outlook: Filament is gradually overhauled, and demand will be lowered from May to June; The market shifts to a small destocking in May, the destocking rate slowed down, and processing fees are expected to weaken; PX supply is still tight in May-June, pay attention to the support of oil adjustment demand for PX.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: hold the current position (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：坐看铁矿空“碳”息， 限产主题别忘记

观点与逻辑：

上周末受短期通胀超预期叠加黑色产业链的恐高情绪影响，整体商品回调，黑色较为明显。而这周截止目前，铁矿期货正逐步修复，今日主力合约加仓上涨收于1242.5元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨45.5元/吨，涨幅3.76%，日加仓5338手。

现货方面，18日早盘进口矿港口价格暂稳，青岛港PB粉报1548元/吨，较昨日上涨20/吨，港口贸易商报盘积极性尚可，报价区间也普遍维持在10~20元/吨。但是由于近期市场高位回落波动较大，市场观望心态较浓，投机成交一般。品味的选择上，中高品贸易由于资源偏紧，钢厂利润偏高，部分钢厂采购更倾向中高品资源。

供给端，发改委表示，将加大铁矿资源勘察开发力度，积极调研钢材与铁矿石情况，同时正抓紧编制2030年前碳排放达峰行动方案；一方面削减对外依赖程度，一方面“碳中和”大前提不变，一松一紧，双边调控。

需求端，从短期来看，虽然4月数据显示新开工面积数据较差，但销售依旧保持热度，周期上钢材仍正处于消费旺季，整体需求韧性较强，且在高利润的驱动下，钢厂的生产积极性依旧较高，对原料端形成一定支持。再现在国际上疫情的反复，中澳关系紧张，国内限产对品味较好的矿种需求预期稳定，奠定了铁矿的支撑强度。但从中长期来看，各地区的压产政策不断趋严，铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态。随着铁矿价格的不断上涨，市场的恐高情绪持续蔓延，风险也在进一步加大。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期中性观望为主，长期持偏空观点。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

橡胶：到港量少，港口库存继续下降

18号，RU主力收盘13390（+30）元/吨，混合胶报价12150元/吨（0），主力合约基差-515元/吨（-30）；前二十主力多头持仓115369（-2796），空头持仓165653（-3564），净空持仓50284（-768）。

17号，NR主力收盘价10790（-60）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1680（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1670美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1645（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-203（+68）元/吨。

截至5月14日：交易所总库存178432（+250），交易所仓单176240（+100）。

原料：生胶片63.27（0），杯胶45（0），胶水63.5（+0.5)，烟片67.86（+0.49）。

截止5月13日，国内全钢胎开工率为68.6%（+16.67%），国内半钢胎开工率为64.73%(+9.43%）。

观点：昨天胶价维持窄幅波动，随着上周的大幅下挫后，期现价差进一步缩窄。最新的港口库存继续下降，主要是到港量更少导致的，因海外开割初期，原料产量有限。当下海内外供应呈现不一，国内海南主产区原料充裕，云南则因橡胶树尚未全面开割，原料供应有限，造成原料价格持续上扬，而泰国目前已经开割，物候条件较好使得胶水释放政策，原料价格有所回落，但海外加工厂利润压缩，生产积极性受阻，供应端多空交织。需求端国内环比走弱，橡胶没有更多新的利好支撑，短期或更多震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：欧洲需求持续回升，柴油裂解价差显著走强

近日成品油裂解价差持续走强，尤其是欧洲柴油对布伦特裂差走高，同时我们也观察到欧洲柴油的基金净多仓位大幅飙升，我们认为这并不完全是此前科洛尼尔管道关闭所带来的利多提振，更多是欧洲石油需求回升所驱动，近一个月以来，欧洲地区的交通拥堵指数持续飙升，目前回到80%左右，而随着欧洲旅行限制的逐步解除，预计欧洲未来需求进一步向好，此外，供给端来看，由于4月份亚太与中东炼厂处于集中检修期，对欧洲柴油出口明显减少，也是提振欧洲柴油价格的原因之一，目前全球成品油格局已经从汽强柴弱转为汽弱柴强。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：现货成交依然相对清淡

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货方面，换月后，持货商尝试收窄贴水挺价，早市盘初，报价于平水铜贴水170元/吨左右，好铜于贴水80元/吨附近，金川公司率先出价金川大板贴水90元/吨，盘面大涨千元，贴水不扩反收，市场难以接受，在拉锯一段时间后近10点，有持货商率先重启扩贴水态势，贴水190元/吨价格报出后，第二时段开盘后就有贴水200元/吨的平水铜露出水面，11点左右，盘面直线冲往76000元/吨时，已有平水铜贴水210元/吨的流出。好铜贵溪及CCC-P货少价高，物以稀为贵，报价少有变动，金川大板最后调至贴水110-100元/吨，ENM最大可贴至140-120元/吨区间。湿法铜仅有ESOX少量流出贴水240-220元/吨，保加利亚及DMK之类因盘面高涨持货商换现意愿增强，可贴水大至250元/吨左右。

观点：昨日，美国财长耶伦为总统拜登的2.2万亿财政刺激政策进行辩护，可以反映出目前拜登政府仍在持续努力落实各类财政刺激政策，这对于整体有色板块而言，同样是相对有利的因素。而在基本面方面，昨日可以发现，持货商升贴水挺价的情况有所松动，不过由于铜价依然相对较高，下游采购积极性依旧有限，故此近期需要重点关注若价格回落后，下游采购是否会被激发，同时寻找在价格回落而升贴水报价则是被相应抬高的情况下的逢低买入机会。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外盘反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期

PTA：原油推动PTA成本型上涨

平衡表展望：长丝逐步检修，5-6月需求下修，5月转为小幅去库，去库速率放缓，加工费预期转弱；PX5-6月仍偏紧，关注调油需求对PX的支撑

策略建议：（1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。