Iron ore: The thread and hot-rolled coil descended violently, and the iron ore price fell in response.

Opinion and logic:

In terms of futures, yesterday's iron ore 2109 contract fell to close at 1,192.5 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or 3.25% from the closing price of the previous trading day, with open interest increasing 18,734 lots. The warehouse receipts of various port warehouses increased by 3,600 lots yesterday.

In terms of spot, on the 19th, the port price of imported iron ores fell by an average of 30 yuan/ton, and some fell to 70 yuan/ton. Port traders were less motivated to make offers and the trading volume was sluggish. Due to the sharp decline from high price level and large fluctuations in the recent market, market participants has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and speculative transactions are small.

In terms of news, DCE has made amendments to the "Detailed Rules for the Iron Ore Futures Business of Dalian Commodity Exchange", in which Article 5 now adjusts the premiums and discounts of deliverable brands of iron ore futures. The premium and discount of PB fine, BRBF and Carajás fine brands will be 15 yuan/ton, and figure for other deliverable brands will be 0 yuan/ton. This action made futures prices as close to spot market prices as possible, while avoiding impact on market expectations as much as possible, making the linkage between futures and spot prices closer, and protecting the smooth operation of iron ore futures.

In general, affected by the sharp drop in thread and hot-rolled coil yesterday, iron ore also fell in response. Recently, the price of thread and hot-rolled coil has fallen by nearly 900 yuan, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Traders continuously cut prices, and the speculative transaction sentiment is poor. The sharp decline in steel prices has given obvious feedback on raw material prices. However, in the medium and long term, iron ore is still at a high level. In addition, the policy of restricting production has not yet been implemented. In the future, more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level. We recommend market participants to neutrally hold their current positions in the short term and to be bearish in the long run.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

Rubber: The sentiment turned to weaken, and the price of rubber continued to decline.

On May 19, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,290 (-100) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,100 (-50) yuan/ton, the basis of most-active contract was -515 yuan/ton (0); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 116,035 (-1,976) lots and the short position was 167,587 (-911) lots, net short position was 51,552 (+1,065).

On May 19, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,675 (-115) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,672.5 (-7.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,665 (-5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,645 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract was -105 (+98) yuan/ton.

As of May 14: the total inventory of exchanges was 178,432 (+250) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchanges were 176,240 (+100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 63.27 (0), cup lump 45.15 (+0.15), latex 64 (+0.5), RSS3 67.9 (+0.04).

As of May 13, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 68.6% (+16.67%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 64.73% (+9.43%).

Opinion: The price of rubber remained fluctuating within a narrow range yesterday, and the price continued to fall driven by the market sentiment in the night trading. After the price stopped falling this week, the RU non-standard spreads widened slightly, indicating that the actual demand is still weak, which is one of the resistances of the current rubber prices. Judging from the operating rate of the tire factory, the operating rate in May has declined compared with April, and the margin of demand has weakened. At present, the port inventory is still in the process of continuous decline. If the destocking can be further reduced in the later period, it will gradually support the rubber price, but the current uncertain variable is the output of new rubber. The main overseas production areas are currently in the early stage of delivery and the phenological conditions are good, which will make the later supply increase expected to be stronger, and it will be more difficult for domestic ports to further destock, unless the demand rebounds sharply in the later period. As there is no more new positive support for short-term rubber, the rubber market may remain a weak pattern.

Strategy: neutrally

Risks: production increases significantly, inventory continues to accumulate, and demand falls sharply, etc.

Crude oil: The market is paying attention to the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations.

At present, there are some contradictory information about the progress of Iran's nuclear talks: Iran and Russia have reported that significant progress has been made in the nuclear talks, while countries such as Britain, France and Germany said that the talks are still facing difficulties. Judging from the performance of the market, oil prices in recent trading days are very sensitive to the news of Iran's nuclear talks. We believe that if the Iranian nuclear talks cannot achieve substantive results in the near future, then consensus may not be reached until after Iran's domestic election in June. At that time, the change of the Iranian government may bring new uncertainty to the Iranian nuclear negotiations. We expect no change in the timing of the lifting of sanctions on Iran, and it is expected that it will be as early as July this year.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk: None

Copper: Weak crude oil drags down the overall industrial products.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, in terms of spot, the Shanghai electrolytic copper spot yesterday was quoted at a discount of 210 to 90 yuan/ton for the current month's contract, with an average price discount of 150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The transaction price of flat copper is 74,560-75,060 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of premium copper is 74,620-75,160 yuan/ton. Today, the Shanghai copper futures fell all the way in the morning, and the 75,000 yuan/ton mark failed to hold. After the break, the decline accelerated, and the reading was 74,610 yuan/ton. The market plunged nearly 800 yuan/ton in the morning. Today, Shanghai Copper gave up most of yesterday's gains. Yesterday's high-value holders resolved their hedges and their willingness to liquidate their positions increased, which accelerated the downward adjustment and expansion of today's spot discounts. In the morning market, the holders briefly quoted prices at around 180 yuan/ton for flat copper discounts. Under the background of lack of response, they hardly made any struggles, and there was a smooth expansion downtrend in the discounts. It touches the discount of 200 yuan/ton quotation around 10 o’clock, and there is no price advantage. Entering the second trading session, the discount was directly extended to 200 to 210 yuan/ton. With around 11 o’clock, the market experienced a downward trend, and the holders further strengthened their willingness to liquidate their positions, and the quotation of flat copper reported at a discount of 230-220 yuan/ton.

Opinion: The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the interest rate meeting early this morning. The overall situation is not too unexpected. However, due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices yesterday, and the new epidemic seems to be showing signs of resurging again, causing non-US currencies to be under pressure again. The U.S. dollar rebounded from a low level, which formed a serious shock to copper prices. However, under the current circumstances, as the Fed’s loose monetary policy orientation remains unchanged for the time being, the dollar’s rebound is expected to be difficult to last. Therefore, from an operational point of view, it is still recommended to seek a buying opportunities when the copper price drops and the premium and discount quotations are correspondingly raised.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. Dollar index trend

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations

PTA: Processing costs have fallen, and polyester production and sales have continued to weaken.

Balance sheet outlook: Filament is gradually overhauled, and demand will be lowered from May to June; The market shifts to a small destocking in May, the destocking rate slowed down, and processing fees are expected to weaken; PX supply is still tight in May-June, pay attention to the support of oil adjustment demand for PX.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: hold the current position (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：成材剧烈下行，铁矿应声回落

观点与逻辑：

期货方面，昨日铁矿2109合约下跌收于1192.5元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌40元/吨，跌幅3.25%，日增仓18734手，各港口仓库昨日仓单量增加3600手。

现货方面，19日进口矿港口价格平均下跌30元/吨，个别跌至70元/吨，港口贸易商报盘积极性低，成交量差。由于近期市场高位回落波动较大，市场观望心态较浓，投机成交一般。

消息方面，大商所对《大连商品交易所铁矿石期货业务细则》做出修改，其中第五条，现对铁矿石期货可交割品牌升贴水进行调整，将PB粉、BRBF和卡拉加斯粉品牌升贴水为15元/吨，其余可交割品牌升贴水为0元/吨。大商所此举为尽可能的贴近现货市场价格、同时尽可能避免影响市场预期，让期现价格联动更加紧密，保护铁矿石期货平稳运行。

总的来说，昨日受成材大幅下跌影响，铁矿也应声回落，近日成材下跌近900元，市场心态悲观，贸易商连续降价，投机成交氛围较差，钢价的大幅下行，对原料价格反馈明显。但从中长期来看铁矿目前依旧处于高位，加上压产政策尚未落地，后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期中性观望为主，长期持偏空观点。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

橡胶：氛围转弱，胶价继续下行

19号，RU主力收盘13290（-100）元/吨，混合胶报价12100元/吨（-50），主力合约基差-515元/吨（0）；前二十主力多头持仓116035（-1976），空头持仓167587（-911），净空持仓51552（+1065）。

19号，NR主力收盘价10675（-115）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1672.5（-7.5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1665美元/吨（-5），印尼标胶1645（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-105（+98）元/吨。

截至5月14日：交易所总库存178432（+250），交易所仓单176240（+100）。

原料：生胶片63.27（0），杯胶45.15（+0.15），胶水64（+0.5)，烟片67.9（+0.04）。

截止5月13日，国内全钢胎开工率为68.6%（+16.67%），国内半钢胎开工率为64.73%(+9.43%）。

观点：昨天胶价维持窄幅波动，夜盘在市场氛围带动下，价格继续下行。本周期价止跌后，RU非标价差又有小幅拉大，说明现实需求仍偏弱，这是当下胶价的阻力之一。从轮胎厂的开工率来看，5月开工率较4月有所下降，需求边际走弱。目前港口库存还处于持续降库中，后期如果去库能进一步去化，将对胶价逐步产生支撑，但目前的变量在新胶产量上。海外主产区目前处于开割初期，物候条件不错，将使得后期供应增加预期较强，则国内港口进一步去库难度加大，除非后期需求大幅回升。短期橡胶没有更多新的利好支撑，或更多偏弱运行。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：市场关注伊核谈判进展

市场关注伊朗核谈进展，目前对于伊朗核谈的进展出现一些矛盾的信息，伊朗与俄罗斯方面的消息称目前核谈取得了重大进展，而英法德等国表示谈判依然面临困难，从盘面的表现来看，近几个交易日油价对伊朗核谈的消息十分敏感，我们认为伊朗核谈如果不能在近期能达成实质性成果，那么可能就要到6月份伊朗国内大选之后，届时伊朗政府换届可能对伊核谈判带来新的不确定性，我们对伊朗解除制裁的时间节点没有发生改变，预计最快在今年7月份。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：原油走弱拖累整体工业品

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货方面，昨日上海电解铜现货对当月合约报于贴水210~贴水90元/吨，均价贴水150元/吨，较前一日跌10元/吨。平水铜成交价格74560-75060元/吨，升水铜成交价格74620-75160元/吨。今日沪期铜早市一路下跌，75000元/吨关口未能守住，跌破后加速下滑模式，探低74610元/吨，上午盘子大跌近800元/吨。 今日沪铜回吐了昨日的大部分涨幅，昨日的高位保值持货商解套，平仓换现意愿增强，令今日现货贴水加速下调扩大。早市，持货商短暂报价于平水铜贴水180元/吨附近，在乏人回应的背景下，几乎未做任何挣扎，便出现流畅性的贴水下扩态势，在10点左右时已触及贴水200元/吨的报价，且无任何价格优势，进入第二交易时段，直接扩至贴水200元-210元/吨，随着11点前后，盘面开启下泻式的跌势，持货商进一步加强了平仓换现的意愿，报价已闻有贴水230-220元/吨的平水铜报价。

观点：今日凌晨美联储公布议息会议纪要，总体尚且不至于太出乎意料之外。但由于昨日原油价格呈现大幅走弱，加之新冠疫情似有再度反扑的迹象，使得非美货币再度承压，而美元则是低位回升，这对于铜价而言形成了较为严重的打击。不过在当前情况下，由于美联储宽松货币政策导向暂时仍无变化，故此美元的反弹料难持久，因此目前从操作角度而言，仍建议寻求当铜价走低而市场升贴水报价坚挺的时候进行逢低吸入的布局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外盘反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期

PTA：加工费回落，聚酯产销持续偏弱

平衡表展望：长丝逐步检修，5-6月需求下修，5月转为小幅去库，去库速率放缓，加工费预期转弱；PX5-6月仍偏紧，关注调油需求对PX的支撑

策略建议：（1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。