Iron ore: The thread and hot-rolled coil descended violently, and the iron ore price fell in response.
Opinion and logic:
In terms of futures, yesterday's iron ore 2109 contract fell to close at 1,192.5 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or 3.25% from the closing price of the previous trading day, with open interest increasing 18,734 lots. The warehouse receipts of various port warehouses increased by 3,600 lots yesterday.
In terms of spot, on the 19th, the port price of imported iron ores fell by an average of 30 yuan/ton, and some fell to 70 yuan/ton. Port traders were less motivated to make offers and the trading volume was sluggish. Due to the sharp decline from high price level and large fluctuations in the recent market, market participants has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and speculative transactions are small.
In terms of news, DCE has made amendments to the "Detailed Rules for the Iron Ore Futures Business of Dalian Commodity Exchange", in which Article 5 now adjusts the premiums and discounts of deliverable brands of iron ore futures. The premium and discount of PB fine, BRBF and Carajás fine brands will be 15 yuan/ton, and figure for other deliverable brands will be 0 yuan/ton. This action made futures prices as close to spot market prices as possible, while avoiding impact on market expectations as much as possible, making the linkage between futures and spot prices closer, and protecting the smooth operation of iron ore futures.
In general, affected by the sharp drop in thread and hot-rolled coil yesterday, iron ore also fell in response. Recently, the price of thread and hot-rolled coil has fallen by nearly 900 yuan, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Traders continuously cut prices, and the speculative transaction sentiment is poor. The sharp decline in steel prices has given obvious feedback on raw material prices. However, in the medium and long term, iron ore is still at a high level. In addition, the policy of restricting production has not yet been implemented. In the future, more attention should be paid to changes in the policy level. We recommend market participants to neutrally hold their current positions in the short term and to be bearish in the long run.
Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.
Rubber: The sentiment turned to weaken, and the price of rubber continued to decline.
On May 19, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,290 (-100) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12,100 (-50) yuan/ton, the basis of most-active contract was -515 yuan/ton (0); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 116,035 (-1,976) lots and the short position was 167,587 (-911) lots, net short position was 51,552 (+1,065).
On May 19, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,675 (-115) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,672.5 (-7.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR was 1,665 (-5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR was 1,645 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract was -105 (+98) yuan/ton.
As of May 14: the total inventory of exchanges was 178,432 (+250) lots, and the warehouse receipts of exchanges were 176,240 (+100) lots.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 63.27 (0), cup lump 45.15 (+0.15), latex 64 (+0.5), RSS3 67.9 (+0.04).
As of May 13, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 68.6% (+16.67%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 64.73% (+9.43%).
Opinion: The price of rubber remained fluctuating within a narrow range yesterday, and the price continued to fall driven by the market sentiment in the night trading. After the price stopped falling this week, the RU non-standard spreads widened slightly, indicating that the actual demand is still weak, which is one of the resistances of the current rubber prices. Judging from the operating rate of the tire factory, the operating rate in May has declined compared with April, and the margin of demand has weakened. At present, the port inventory is still in the process of continuous decline. If the destocking can be further reduced in the later period, it will gradually support the rubber price, but the current uncertain variable is the output of new rubber. The main overseas production areas are currently in the early stage of delivery and the phenological conditions are good, which will make the later supply increase expected to be stronger, and it will be more difficult for domestic ports to further destock, unless the demand rebounds sharply in the later period. As there is no more new positive support for short-term rubber, the rubber market may remain a weak pattern.
Risks: production increases significantly, inventory continues to accumulate, and demand falls sharply, etc.
Crude oil: The market is paying attention to the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations.
At present, there are some contradictory information about the progress of Iran's nuclear talks: Iran and Russia have reported that significant progress has been made in the nuclear talks, while countries such as Britain, France and Germany said that the talks are still facing difficulties. Judging from the performance of the market, oil prices in recent trading days are very sensitive to the news of Iran's nuclear talks. We believe that if the Iranian nuclear talks cannot achieve substantive results in the near future, then consensus may not be reached until after Iran's domestic election in June. At that time, the change of the Iranian government may bring new uncertainty to the Iranian nuclear negotiations. We expect no change in the timing of the lifting of sanctions on Iran, and it is expected that it will be as early as July this year.
Copper: Weak crude oil drags down the overall industrial products.
In terms of spot: According to SMM news, in terms of spot, the Shanghai electrolytic copper spot yesterday was quoted at a discount of 210 to 90 yuan/ton for the current month's contract, with an average price discount of 150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The transaction price of flat copper is 74,560-75,060 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of premium copper is 74,620-75,160 yuan/ton. Today, the Shanghai copper futures fell all the way in the morning, and the 75,000 yuan/ton mark failed to hold. After the break, the decline accelerated, and the reading was 74,610 yuan/ton. The market plunged nearly 800 yuan/ton in the morning. Today, Shanghai Copper gave up most of yesterday's gains. Yesterday's high-value holders resolved their hedges and their willingness to liquidate their positions increased, which accelerated the downward adjustment and expansion of today's spot discounts. In the morning market, the holders briefly quoted prices at around 180 yuan/ton for flat copper discounts. Under the background of lack of response, they hardly made any struggles, and there was a smooth expansion downtrend in the discounts. It touches the discount of 200 yuan/ton quotation around 10 o’clock, and there is no price advantage. Entering the second trading session, the discount was directly extended to 200 to 210 yuan/ton. With around 11 o’clock, the market experienced a downward trend, and the holders further strengthened their willingness to liquidate their positions, and the quotation of flat copper reported at a discount of 230-220 yuan/ton.
Opinion: The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the interest rate meeting early this morning. The overall situation is not too unexpected. However, due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices yesterday, and the new epidemic seems to be showing signs of resurging again, causing non-US currencies to be under pressure again. The U.S. dollar rebounded from a low level, which formed a serious shock to copper prices. However, under the current circumstances, as the Fed’s loose monetary policy orientation remains unchanged for the time being, the dollar’s rebound is expected to be difficult to last. Therefore, from an operational point of view, it is still recommended to seek a buying opportunities when the copper price drops and the premium and discount quotations are correspondingly raised.
In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.
1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: reverse arbitrage of internal and external markets
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options
1. Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. Dollar index trend
3. Whether the demand in the second quarter meet expectations
PTA: Processing costs have fallen, and polyester production and sales have continued to weaken.
Balance sheet outlook: Filament is gradually overhauled, and demand will be lowered from May to June; The market shifts to a small destocking in May, the destocking rate slowed down, and processing fees are expected to weaken; PX supply is still tight in May-June, pay attention to the support of oil adjustment demand for PX.
Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: hold the current position (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.
Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.
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