Iron ore: The price of ferrous metals broadly declined, and iron ore cannot escape falling.

Last week, iron ore futures prices fluctuated sharply. The rebound in the first two days showed an upward trend, but in the second half of the week, the iron ore also fell rapidly following the continuous decline of thread and hot-rolled coil. Last Friday, the iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,096.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76.5 yuan/ton from last Friday’s closing price, a weekly drop of 6.52%. In terms of spot, with the rapid fall of futures prices, spot prices also loosened slightly. Last week, Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,415 yuan / ton, a week-on-week drop of 85 yuan / ton. The discounted price stood at 1,567 yuan/ton and the basis of the most-active contracts was 470. SSF reported 1,070 yuan/ton, a week-on-week drop of 70 yuan/ton, and a discount of 1,333 yuan/ton. The basis of its most-active contracts was 237. The Platts 62% index reported $200/ton on the 21st, down $9/ton. Compared with futures prices, spot prices were relatively firm. The market was active in the first half of the week. However, with the continuous decline of thread and hot-rolled coil, the profits of steel mills fell sharply, and iron ore also experienced the same decline.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel’s statistics, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 22.583 million tons, a decrease of 2.236 million tons from the previous week. Affected by berth maintenance, Australia's shipment volume decreased by 257.6 tons from the previous week to 16.776 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume rebounded by 340 thousand tons from the previous week to 5.807 million tons. In terms of ores, Rio Tinto’s shipment volume decreased by 1.346 million tons from the previous week to 5.615 million tons. The volume of BHP and FMG shipments remained basically the same. The volume of VALE shipments increased by 49,000 tons from the previous week to 4.198 million tons. The shipment volume decreased slightly from last week, and the overall shipment was at a normal level during the same period.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 80.21%, a decrease of 0.13% from last week and a decrease of 10.29% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 91.18%, an increase of 0.31% from the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 0.23%. The profit rate of steel mills was 90.04%, the same week-on-week, and down 1.73% year-on-year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.427 million tons, an increase of 0.82 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 6,100 tons year-on-year. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel plants with a blast furnace operating rate of 62.15%, an increase of 0.14% week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate was 73.98%, an increase of 0.33% week-on-week, and the utilization rate excluding eliminated capacity was 80.54%, a decrease of 5.59% from the same period last year. The profit rate of steel mills was 78.53%, the same month-on-month. Due to the production restriction policy, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The output of steel mills has increased slightly in the short term, but the trend is closely following thread and hot-rolled coil, and iron ore has fallen sharply in the short term.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 12,510.60, a month-on-month decrease of 22.3; the average daily port congestion volume was 291.37, a decrease of 9.76. In terms of varieties, Australian iron ore was 6,463.07, down 37.39; Brazilian figure was 3,751.29, down 0.23. Trade iron ore reported 6,197.20, an increase of 41.7; Pellet number was 405.36, with a fell of 17.8. Iron ore concentrates stood at 840.08, an increase of 39.33; Lump ore reported 1,748.60, with a fall of 45.54, and coarse fine increased 1.71 to 9,516.56. The number of ships in port down 5 from 129. Iron ore inventories continued to be de-stocked, and the overall inventory was at a relatively low level over the same period.

In terms of news, the State Council on the 19th reiterated its emphasis on ensuring the supply of commodities aiming at curbing unreasonable price increases. This is also the third time that the State Council has made targeted deployments for the rise of commodity prices in recent days. The news has severely dampened market sentiment. Although policy adjustments will be implemented next year, the continued increase in policies is constantly impacting market sentiment. In addition, on the 19th, DCE made amendments to the “Detailed Rules for the Iron Ore Futures Business of Dalian Commodity Exchange”. Article 5 of this article now adjusts the premiums and discounts of deliverable brands of iron ore futures. The premiums and discounts of PB fine, BRBF and Carajás fine brands are adjusted to 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums and discounts of other deliverable brands are 0 yuan/ton. The purpose of DCE is to keep the futures market price as close to the spot market price as possible, while avoiding affecting market expectations as much as possible, making the linkage between futures and spot prices closer, and protecting the smooth operation of iron ore futures.

On the whole, due to the impact of the thread and hot-rolled coil end and policies this week, the price of iron ore has shown a sharp drop. In the short term, steel is still in the peak consumption season. Although the market has experienced a sharp correction than expected, the overall profit of steel mills is still in a relatively better level. Coupled with the unabated enthusiasm of steel mills, there has been certain support for the raw materials end. However, in the medium and long term, iron ore price is still at a high level. With various production restriction policies and dual-carbon targets, iron ore demand will gradually weaken, and iron ore is likely to enter a state of surplus. As the price of iron ore continues to rise, the fear of high price in the market continues to spread, and the risks are further increasing. In the future, more attention should be paid to changes in the policy. We recommend market participants to neutrally hold their current positions in the short term and to be bearish in the long run.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Neutrally hold the current position in the short-term, and to be neutrally bearish in the long-run

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production has exceeded expectations by a large margin.

Rubber: The market price is at a low level, and the future price is expected to be repaired slightly.

Last week, the price of rubber futures first declined and then rose. In the first half of the week, as the market sentiment weakened, the price was close to the previous week's new low. Under the support of its own raw material prices, the price touched the bottom and then rebounded.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of May 21 is 178,956 tons (+524), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts is 176,670 tons (+430). The rubber trees in the main production area of Yunnan cannot be fully delivered now. The limited output of dry rubber has caused recent warehouse receipts and inventories to remain low. As of May 16, the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, and the increase in downstream procurement led to the continued destocking of inventory last week. Due to the small overseas production, it is expected that the port destocking may still be maintained until the end of May.

Last week, the spot price rose first and then fell, and the center of price gravity shifted downward. According to Zhuo Chuang's understanding, the market still has expectations of a large supply of new rubber. In addition, the overall domestic sales and export markets of tire factories have slowed down. Although the finished product inventory has been digested at a certain degree, the overall level is still high. The weak raw material market makes the overall purchasing sentiment weak. Therefore, the trading sentiment of the spot market in the day is not good, and the tire terminal just needs to be purchased. The spot price of natural rubber in US dollars fell in Qingdao area, and the spot transactions in the market was scarce. There are two reasons: first, the pressure on downstream finished products inventory has increased, and companies have reduced the purchase of raw materials accordingly; second, most companies have insufficient confidence in the future price of natural rubber, so they maintain rigid demand purchases. The overall price center of the external market shifted downward. At present, the amount of new rubber released in Thailand's production areas is still not large, and the overall performance of the purchase price of raw rubber is firm. However, due to the weak performance of domestic and foreign futures during the week, the overall market sentiment was pessimistic, and the domestic tire terminal cargo purchase sentiment was not good; in addition, it was heard that the overseas market demand was just slowing down, and the Indian standard and other goods were not easy to deliver. As of the end of last week, the premium of synthetic rubber was -75 yuan/ton (+300), and the slight rebound in rubber prices last week narrowed the spread.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of May 20, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 62.52% (-6.08%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 60.98 (-3.75%). The operating rate continued to decline month-on-month after the holiday, reflecting the recent weakening of demand.

Opinion: The fall in rubber prices in the previous week led to an increase in the purchase of downstream parts, which continued the decline in domestic port inventories. In the later period, domestic demand has weakened compared with the previous week, and the inventory of finished products in factories has risen, or causing the short-term procurement demand to be still insufficient. With the gradual increase in overseas supply, the trend of continued decline in port inventory may be difficult to maintain unless overseas imports are delayed. At present, the entry of domestic index rubber has been delayed, bringing support to the supply. Following the previous decline, the non-standard spreads have also narrowed significantly. With the short-selling momentum of market prices has slowed down, there is a demand for rebounds in futures prices. Moreover, the current market price is still lower than the cost of domestic raw materials. It is expected that under the market sentiment, the rubber price is expected to be further repaired. We recommended investors to participate in the short-term.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish, and participate in the short term.

Risk points: Domestic supply increases sharply, demand continues to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funding would be tight.

Crude oil: The negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue are progressing smoothly, but the room for oil prices to fall may be limited.

The fourth round of negotiations on the new Iranian nuclear agreement went smoothly last week. Rouhani said that the main framework of the Iranian nuclear agreement has basically been reached, but some details of the agreement still need to be finalized. The market expects that the two parties will reach an agreement and clarify the timetable for lifting Iran’s oil export sanctions in the fifth round of negotiations this week. We believe that the main impacts of the lifting of Iran’s oil sanctions are as follows: 1. The time when the sanctions are lifted. Judging from the progress of the current negotiations, the probability of reaching an agreement before the Iranian presidential election on June 18 has increased significantly, but it is not entirely certain. If the two sides still fail to negotiate in the final stage, it means that the next round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement will need to wait until the Iranian government is replaced. Previously, the market generally expected that Iranian oil would begin to flow into the market as early as July (after the IAEA completed the inspection of Iran), but if the Iran nuclear agreement fails to reach an agreement this time, the return of Iranian oil to the market may be delayed until the fourth quarter of this year. 2. How big is the impact of the lifting of Iran’s oil sanctions? According to the current situation, if the sanctions on Iran’s trade, shipping, and finance are lifted, the bottleneck of Iran’s oil exports will be lifted. At present, Iran has nearly 2 million barrels of remaining production capacity and approximately 36 million barrels of crude oil inventory (which may include a small portion of refined oil). The first to hit the market will be the nearly 40 million barrels of crude oil inventory, which is equivalent to converting the original non-circulating stocks into tradable stocks, putting pressure on the spot market. The second is the increase in production. According to the effect of the last round of sanctions, Iran’s oil production has also increased relatively quickly, and it is expected that production will be fully resumed within three months. At the same time, a new Iranian crude oil pipeline (1 million barrels per day) has been put into production. After the sanctions are lifted, Iran's oil export capacity and efficiency will be improved.

However, we believe that Iranian oil has a limited negative impact on the oil market. The main reasons are: 1. Since the beginning of the year, Iranian oil smuggled exports have increased to more than 1 million barrels per day, which means the negative part has been Price in; 2. The market has long expected Iranian oil to return to the market. The current main uncertainty lies in the return time and the initial increase in exports; 3. From the perspective of the balance sheet, the incremental supply brought by Iranian oil can be digested when demand continues to recover. According to the forecasts of major institutions, demand will increase by 3 million barrels per day from the second to third quarters of this year. In addition to the existing supply and demand gap in the first quarter, the return of Iranian oil to the market will not cause oversupply in the market, but it may slow down the inventory decline; 4. Recently, there are some positive signs on the oil demand side. For example, we have seen a rapid recovery in European demand from various demand indicators. The current traffic congestion index has recovered to more than 80%, and China’s oil buying interest has recovered. Rongsheng’s large crude oil tenders and local refinery purchases have also begun to increase. It is expected that the second batch of crude oil import quotas will also be issued in the near future. Although Indian demand has recently dropped significantly and has dragged down the demand recovery process in South Asian countries, the demand recovery trend of other parts of the world is still significant. Therefore, we cannot ignore the bullish fundamentals of crude oil itself because of the bad news brought about by the progress of the Iranian nuclear talks. Generally speaking, we believe that the return of Iranian oil to the market is only a one-time small impact on the market, but only the progress of demand recovery can be the key to determine oil price trends.

Strategy: neutrally, none.

Risk: None

Copper: As prices fell, downstream buying interest slightly recovered.

Spot market:

According to SMM news, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of May 21 was between 72,475 and 75,700 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of flat copper was between -200 and 105 yuan/ton. Last week, copper prices fell sharply, and during the price fall, there were no obvious signs of supporting prices from holders. However, the downstream buying interest has slightly recovered. In general, the spot transaction volume in the second half of the week has recovered somewhat from last week.

Opinion:

short term:

Last week, the TC price of domestic imported ore continued to rise by $1.52/ton to $34.92/ton. The tight supply of ores seems to continue to ease. The operating rate of domestic refineries has also shown a relatively high level due to the recent sustained surge in sulfuric acid prices. From a supply point of view, it is actually not very favorable for copper prices. On the demand side, it is indeed the peak season for traditional demand. However, due to the continuous high copper price before, the downstream price recognition is extremely low, resulting in relatively light purchases. However, when copper prices fell last week, demand showed some signs of recovery. Therefore, the peak season's rigid demand will also form a certain supporting effect on the copper price. And at present, from a macro perspective, although the minutes of the Fed’s meeting mentioned that there may be discussions on reducing the scale of debt purchases, the current attitude of attaching importance to economic growth and temporarily tolerating high inflation in the short-term is expected to still make the Fed in the short-term not to immediately adjust the current monetary policy. Therefore, this is still a relatively favorable factor for copper, which has relatively strong financial attributes.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: forward arbitrage

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. The risk of tightening liquidity

2. Domestic delivery situation

3. Destocking in the second quarter fell short of expectations.

PTA: Prices rebounded again after falling back, and the re-launch of new equipment was postponed.

Balance sheet outlook: Filament is gradually overhauled, and demand will be lowered from May to June; The market shifts to a small destocking in May, the destocking rate slowed down, and processing fees are expected to weaken; PX supply is still tight in May-June, pay attention to the support of oil adjustment demand for PX.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: hold the current position (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities when high gaps appear.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：黑色共振向下，铁矿难逃下跌

上周铁矿期货价格大幅震荡，前两天反弹呈上涨态势，但后半周随成材大幅连续下跌影响，铁矿也随之快速回落。上周五铁矿2109合约收于1096.5元/吨，较上上周五收盘价下跌76.5元/吨，周跌幅6.52%。现货方面，随着期货价格的快速回落，现货价格也略有松动。上周青岛港PB粉报1415元/吨，周环比下跌85元/吨，折盘面价1567元/吨，主力合约基差470。超特粉报1070元/吨，周环比下跌70元/吨，折盘面1333元/吨，主力合约基差237。普氏62%指数21日报200美元/吨，跌9美元/吨。相较期货价格，现货价格表现较为坚挺，前半周市场成交活跃度较高，但随着成材的持续下跌从而导致钢厂利润大幅下滑，铁矿下跌也因此共振下跌。

供应方面，本期Mysteel新口径澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2258.3万吨，环比减/少223.6万吨。澳洲受泊位检修影响，发运量环比减少257.6吨至1677.6万吨；巴西发运量环比回升34.0万吨至580.7万吨。具体到矿山，力拓发运量环比减少134.6万吨至561.5万吨，BHP和FMG发运量环比基本持平；VALE发运量环比增加4.9万吨至419.8万吨。发货量环比上周略有减少，整体发运量处于同期正常水平。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率80.21%，环比上周下降0.13%，同比去年下降10.29%；高炉炼铁产能利用率91.18%，环比增加0.31%，同比增加0.23%；钢厂盈利率90.04%，环比持平，同比下降1.73%；日均铁水产量242.7万吨，环比增加0.82万吨，同比增加0.61万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率62.15%，环比上周提高0.14%，产能利用率73.98%，环比提高0.33%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为80.54%，较去年同期降5.59%，钢厂盈利率78.53%，环比持平。受限产政策影响，钢厂高炉开工率与往年同期相比处于较低水平，短期钢厂产量微增，但趋势上紧跟成材，铁矿短期急速下跌。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12510.60，环比降22.3；日均疏港量291.37降9.76。分量方面，澳矿6463.07降37.39，巴西矿3751.29降0.23，贸易矿6197.20增41.7，球团405.36降17.8，精粉840.08增39.33，块矿1748.60降45.54，粗粉9516.56增1.71；在港船舶数129降5条。铁矿石库存延续去库，整体库存量处于同期较低水平。

消息方面， 19日国常会再次强调保障大宗商品供给，遏制价格不合理上涨，这也是近期国常会第三次针对大宗商品价格上涨进行针对性部署，消息重挫市场情绪。虽然政策调整将在明年执行，但政策持续加码在不断冲击市场情绪。另外19日大商所对《大连商品交易所铁矿石期货业务细则》做出修改，其中第五条，现对铁矿石期货可交割品牌升贴水进行调整，将PB粉、BRBF和卡拉加斯粉品牌升贴水为15元/吨，其余可交割品牌升贴水为0元/吨。大商所此举为尽可能的贴近现货市场价格、同时尽可能避免影响市场预期，让期现价格联动更加紧密，保护铁矿石期货平稳运行。

整体来看，本周受成材端和政策影响，铁矿价格呈现大幅急跌，从短期来看，钢材仍正处于消费旺季，虽然市场出现超预期的大幅回调，但钢厂利润总体还处于不差的水平，加之钢厂积极性不减，对原料端有一定的支持，但从中长期来看，铁矿依旧处于高位，随着各类限产政策以及双碳目标的背景下铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态。随着铁矿价格的不断上涨，市场的恐高情绪持续蔓延，风险也在进一步加大。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期中性观望为主，长期持偏空观点。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望，长期中性偏空

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

橡胶：价格低位，期价有望小幅修复

上周橡胶期价先抑后扬，上半周在市场氛围转弱下，价格接近前一周新低，而后在自身原料价格的支撑下，价格触底反弹。

国内交易所总库存截止5月21为178956吨（+524），期货仓单量176670吨（+430），国内云南主产区橡胶树尚不能全面开割，干胶产量有限，带来近期仓单及库存持续处于低位。截至5月16日，青岛保税区库存继续小幅回落，下游拿货增加带来上周库存继续去化。基于海外产量较少，预计港口去库或仍可维持到5月底。

上周现货价格先涨后跌，重心下移。据卓创了解，市场对于新胶供应放量的预期犹存，加之轮胎厂内销及出口市场整体放缓，成品库存虽有所消化，但整体仍处于偏高水平，原料行情偏弱使得整体采购情绪偏弱，因此日内现货市场交投情绪欠佳，轮胎终端刚需采购为主。青岛地区天然橡胶美金现货价格下跌，市场现货买卖清淡，成交稀少。一是下游成品库存压力增大，企业相应减少原材料采购；二是企业多对天然橡胶未来价格走向信心不足，因此保持刚需买进为主。外盘市场价格重心整体下移，目前泰国产区新胶释放量依然不多，原料胶水收购价格整体表现坚挺，但由于周内国内外期货盘面表现偏弱，导致市场整体情绪偏悲观，国内轮胎终端船货采购情绪欠佳；此外听闻海外市场刚需放缓，印标等走货欠佳。截至上周末，橡胶升水合成胶-75元/吨（+300），上周胶价小幅回升带来价差有所缩窄。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止5月20日，全钢胎企业开工率62.52%（-6.08%），半钢胎企业开工率60.98（-3.75%）。假期之后开工率环比持续下滑，反映近期需求趋弱。

观点：前一周胶价下挫带来下游部分采买增加，使得国内港口库存延续下滑态势。后期来看国内需求环比走弱，工厂成品库存有所走高，或带来短期采购需求仍不足，而海外供应逐步增加，港口库存继续下降的趋势或难维持，除非海外进口量延缓。目前国内指标胶延缓进入，带来供应仍有支撑。随着前期下跌后，非标价差也明显缩窄，盘面价格做空动能减缓下，期价有反弹需求，且当前盘面价格仍低于国内原料成本，预计在市场氛围烘托下，胶价有望进一步修复。建议短线参与。

策略：谨慎偏多，短线参与

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：伊核谈判进展顺利，但油价下跌空间或有限

上周第四轮新伊核协议谈判进展顺利，鲁哈尼称伊核协议主体框架基本达成，但仍需要对协议的一些细节作出最后确认，市场预期最快双方在本周的第五轮谈判上达成协议并明确解除伊朗石油出口制裁的时间表。我们认为伊朗石油制裁解除的主要影响如下：1、制裁解除的时间，从目前谈判的进展程度来看，目前在6月18日伊朗总统大选之前达成协议的概率大幅增加，但并非完全确定，如果最后阶段双方依然没能谈拢，意味着伊核协议的下一轮谈判需要等到伊朗政府换届完成之后，此前市场普遍预期伊朗石油最早在7月份开始流入市场（在国际原子能机构完成对伊朗的核查之后），但如果伊核协议本次没能达成一致，可能伊朗石油重返市场要推迟到今年四季度；2、伊朗石油制裁解除的影响冲击有多大，按照目前来看，如果关于对伊朗贸易、航运、金融等制裁全面解除，那么伊朗石油出口的瓶颈将会全面解除，目前伊朗有近200万桶/日的剩余产能以及约3600万桶的原油库存（可能含小部分成品油），首先冲击市场的将会是这近4000万桶的原油库存，相当于将原本的非流通库存转化成了可流通库存，对现货市场造成压力，其次是产量提升，而按照上一轮制裁解除后的效果来看，伊朗石油增产也较为快速，预计将在三个月之内完全复产，同时伊朗的一条新的原油管道（100万桶/日）已经投产，制裁解除之后将提升伊朗石油出口能力和效率。

但我们认为伊朗石油对油市的利空影响空间有限，主要原因在于：1、年初以来伊朗石油走私出口已经增加至100万桶/日以上，利空部分Price in；2、市场对伊朗石油重返市场早有预期，目前主要的不确定性在于重返时间以及初期的出口增加幅度；3、从平衡表来看，在需求持续复苏的情况下，可以消化伊朗石油带来的增量供应，按照三大机构的预测，今年二至三季度需求环比增量在300万桶/日，而加上一季度原本就存在的供需缺口，因此伊朗石油重返市场并不会造成市场出现供应过剩，但可能会减缓库存下降速度；4、近期石油需求端显现出一些积极迹象，如我们从各项需求指标看到欧洲需求快速复苏，目前交通拥堵指数恢复至80%以上，中国的石油买兴出现复苏，荣盛的大额原油招标以及地炼采购也开始增加，预计第二批原油进口配额也将在近期下发，虽然印度方面需求近期显著回落，并拖累南亚国家的需求复苏进程，但全球其他地区的需求复苏趋势依然显著，因此不能因为伊朗核谈进展所带来的利空而忽视原油自身基本面上的利多因素，总体而言，我们认为伊朗石油重返市场仅仅是对市场的一次性利空冲击，但需求复苏的进展才是决定油价走势的关键。

策略：中性，暂无

风险：无

铜：价格回落之际 下游买兴略有复苏

现货情况：

据SMM讯，5月21日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于72,475元/吨至75,700元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于-200元/吨至105元/吨之间。上周铜价格出现较大幅度回落，并且在价格回落过程中，并未看到十分明显的持货商挺价的迹象，不过下游买兴则是略有恢复，总体而言后半周现货成交量较上周有所恢复。

观点：

短期：

上周国内进口矿TC价格继续回升1.52美元/吨至34.92美元/吨，矿端供应紧俏似有持续缓解的情况，而国内炼厂开工率也因硫酸价格近期持续飙涨的情况下而呈现相对较高的水平，从供应的角度而言，实则对于铜价并不十分有利，在需求端，目前的确时值传统需求旺季，不过由于此前铜价持续维持高位，使得下游对于价格认可度极低，致使采购较为清淡，不过上周在铜价回落之际，需求又出现些许复苏迹象，因此旺季刚需对于铜价而言也同样会形成一定支撑作用。并且目前就宏观方面而言，虽然美联储会议纪要有提及可能会对于缩减购债规模展开讨论，但在目前重视经济增长而暂时容忍通胀短时内偏高的态度料仍使得美联储在短时内不会立刻对当下货币政策进行调整，故此这对于金融属性相对偏强的铜而言，也仍然是较为有利的因素。

中长期：

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们维持铜价长线看涨的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：跨期正套；4. 期权：卖出虚值看跌

关注点：

1. 流动性收紧的风险 2. 国内交仓情况 3. 2季度去库不及预期

PTA：回落后再度反弹，新装置再度投产推迟

平衡表展望：长丝逐步检修，5-6月需求下修，5月转为小幅去库，去库速率放缓，加工费预期转弱；PX5-6月仍偏紧，关注调油需求对PX的支撑

策略建议：（1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。