Iron ore: Recently, iron ore is moving with thread and hot-rolled coil, and investors should pay attention to policy changes for a long time.

Last week, the price of iron ore futures declined first and then rose. From the opening of 1,090.5 on Friday night trading to the closing of 994.5 on Wednesday, the price fell nearly 100 points. The market opened at 990 on Thursday, the intraday price continued to drop to 985 and then rebounded, and it closed at 1,063 on Friday. Compared with the previous week's figure of 1,096.5, it fell 33.5 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 3.06%. In terms of spot, following the drop in futures prices, spot prices also fell by about 100-200 yuan last week. Last week, Qingdao Port's PB fine reported 1,322 yuan/ton, a week-on-week drop of 93 yuan/ton, the discounted price was 1,465 yuan/ton, and the basis of the most-active contract was 402. SSF reported 958 yuan/ton, a week-on-week drop of 112 yuan/ton, and a discount of 1,210 yuan/ton. The basis of the most-active contract was 147. The Platts 62% index reported at US$189.55/ton on the 28th, down US$10.45/ton from the previous week. Compared with futures prices, spot prices fell by a larger margin last week. The overall spot transactions last week were sluggish, and there was occasional increase in transaction enthusiasm during the middle of the week. With the passage of time and the rapid decline in prices, the pessimism has been released. The prices of raw materials and thread and hot-rolled coil have fallen simultaneously, making the profits of steel mills continue to be compressed.

On the supply side, last week Mysteel counted 33.324 million tons of global shipments. This was an increase of 22.3% from the previous week. The total shipment of iron ore in Australia and Brazil was 26.402 million tons, an increase of 16.9% from the previous week. Shipping in Australia recovered to 18.405 million tons, an increase of 9.7% week-on-week; shipments in Brazil were 7.997 million tons, an increase of 37.7% week-on-week. In terms of ores, Rio Tinto's shipment volume increased by 0.68 to 6.295 million tons week-on-week; BHP figure increased by 0.25 to 6.009 million tons week-on-week; FMG number increased by 0.63 to 3.944 million tons week-on-week; and VALE shipments increased from 2.035 to 6.233 million tons week-on-week. Shipment volume has increased significantly, and overall shipment volume has also increased compared with the same period last year.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 80.99%, an increase of 0.78% from last week and a decrease of 10.03% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 91.41%, an increase of 0.23% from the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 0.03%; the profit rate of steel mills was 85.28%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.36%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.4331 million tons, an increase of 6,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 700 tons year-on-year. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 62.43%, an increase of 0.28% week-on-week, a capacity utilization rate of 74.33%, a week-on-week increase of 0.35%, and a utilization rate excluding eliminated capacity of 80.92%, a decrease of 5.7% from the same period last year. The profit rate of steel mills was 74.46%, a decrease of 3.07 week-on-week. Due to restricted production policies and profit conditions, the steel mills’ blast furnace operating rate is at a relatively low level compared with the same period in previous years. The output of steel mills has increased slightly in the short term, but the trend is closely following changes in thread and hot-rolled coil.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 12.62216 million tons, an increase of 1.1156 million tons week-on-week; the average daily port congestion volume was 2.9009 million tons. Among which, Australian ores increased by 0.6778 at 65.3085 million tons, Brazilian ores increased by 0.3356 at 37.8485 million tons, trade ore increased by 2.438 to 64.41 million tons, pellets increased by 243.8, pellets increased by 0.1449 to 3.9087 million tons, concentrate ores increased by 0.6462 to 9.047 million tons, lump ore increased by 0.1072 million tons, and coarse fine increased by 0.5071 to 95.6727 million tons; the number of ships in port increased by 7 to 136. Iron ore inventory has increased, and the overall inventory is at a relatively low level over the same period, and there are large differences in various types of ores.

In terms of news, Premier Keqiang mentioned at the meeting of academicians of the two academies last Friday that it should focus on using market-based methods to solve prominent problems in economic operations such as rising commodity prices. On the same day, a Goldman Sachs research report concluded that after developed countries recovered from the epidemic, China lost its ability to dominate the commodity market. As soon as the news came out, market feedback became fierce.

On the whole, the price of iron ore has fluctuated greatly this week due to the impact of thread and hot-rolled coil and policies, and the basis has been repaired to a certain extent. In the short term, although the unexpected correction in the past two weeks has caused abnormal market sentiment, coupled with the excellent shipment data of overseas ores, the market has released the bearish factors accordingly. However, it is still the peak season for steel consumption, and steel stocks are still at a low level. After nearly two weeks of decline, the North China long process steel mill still has a profit of about 200, so the steel mills are still enthusiastic about production. This forms a certain support for the raw material end. However, in the medium and long term, the current price of more than $180 of iron ore is still at a high level. In the context of the current dual-carbon goals and environmental protection, the promotion of production restriction policies may continue. The demand for iron ore is expected to weaken. In the follow-up, more attention should be paid to changes at the policy level and we predicts that the overall price will move with thread and hot-rolled coil.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: the overall price will move with thread and hot-rolled coil in the short-term, and investors should pay attention to policies in the long term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production exceeds expectations by a large margin.

Rubber: Both supply and demand are weak, and future prices fluctuate at a low level.

Last week, rubber futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with little fundamental contradiction, and generally followed market fluctuations.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of May 28 was 179,866 tons (+910), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 176,460 tons (-210). The overall domestic dry rubber production was limited, resulting in recent warehouse receipts and inventories that continued to be low year-on-year. As of May 23, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, and the continued increase in downstream procurement led to continued inventory destocking last week. Later inventory changes may focus on the supply side.

According to Zhuochuang's understanding, the current overall delivery rate in Yunnan is only about 60%, which is relatively limited compared to previous years. The overall start of tire companies is weakening, and the demand for raw material purchases has decreased, and most of them are just-needed purchases. The domestic spot market as a whole is in the form of de-stocking, but the inventory of finished products of terminal enterprises has accumulated, thus forming a negative feedback on the raw material side. Therefore, the current overall market has large differences between longs and shorts, the industry's sentiment is confused, and mainstream transactions are general. The spot price of natural rubber in US dollars in Qingdao has risen, and the downstream operating rate is currently declining. The purchase enthusiasm is not high, and the overall transaction volume is limited. However, in terms of cargo, the spot is relatively advantageous, and the Qingdao area continues the state of destocking. The overall price of the external market has risen slightly. At present, the amount of new rubber released in Thailand's production areas is still not much. The purchase price of raw material rubber continued to rise during the week, and the US cargo market price has moved upward as a whole. At present, it is heard that the release of raw materials in foreign production areas is limited, and the supply chain is affected by high shipping costs and container supply problems. However, the overall domestic rigid demand has shown a slowdown in growth. In contrast, the European and American markets are picking up due to low raw material inventories and the recovery of terminal comprises’ needs, and the overall demand is strong. It is heard that overseas processing plants are currently exporting cargoes to Europe and the United States relatively active, and Indonesian and other rubber has increased to a premiums of Singapore futures market price. As of last weekend, the synthetic rubber premium was 600 yuan/ton (+675), and the recent downward trend in synthetic rubber prices has brought about a price difference reversal.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of May 27, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 55.36% (-7.16%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 56.22 (-4.76%). After the holiday, the operating rate continued to decline week-on-week, reflecting the recent weakening of demand, and rising ocean freight prices are gradually putting pressure on tire exports.

Opinion: At present, rubber presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side has been delivered at home and abroad, but the domestic delivery of the main production area in Yunnan has been delayed until late June, and the Hainan rubber has grabbed or reproduced the raw materials brought about by the continuous rebound in the price of concentrated rubber. Both of them have supported domestic raw material prices. The phenology of overseas countries is good, and the rubber release is normal. However, attention must be paid to the impact of the epidemic on the pace of short-term domestic imports. At the same time, the recovery of overseas demand has also increased the use of Indonesian rubber, which is conducive to alleviating domestic inventory pressure. The current trend of domestic port inventory destocking may continue for some time. However, from the perspective of the spread structure, the domestic non-standard spreads have not narrowed significantly. At the same time, the operating rate of domestic downstream tire factories continues to decline, and the weakening of the demand will also drag down the price of rubber. It is expected that the price of rubber will fluctuate mainly at a low level.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk points: Domestic supply increases sharply, demand continues to weaken due to the impact of the epidemic, and funding might be tight.

Crude oil: The uncertainty of the negotiations has increased, and the return of Iranian oil may be delayed.

Last week’s US-Iranian nuclear talks presented a difference again. At present, the US and Iran still have differences on some key issues. US Secretary of State Brinken said that he did not see Iran’s willingness to comply with the Iran nuclear agreement. The current negotiations seem to be deadlocked. We believe that if the Iranian nuclear negotiations cannot be completed before the Iranian election on June 18, the time for Iranian oil to return to the market may be delayed. Previously, we expected an agreement to be reached in May and that sanctions would be lifted from Iran in July to increase oil exports. However, it is currently possible to postpone the agreement until September and to lift sanctions to increase exports in November. In addition, Iran’s general election is very likely to elect a hardline president, which may bring new uncertainty to future Iranian nuclear negotiations. From the market perspective last week, the sharp increase in oil prices to cover the previous gap also shows the market's concerns about the uncertainty of the negotiations.

We believe that the main impacts of the delay of Iranian oil’s return to the market until the fourth quarter are: 1. The spot market will tighten. Iran’s current crude oil condensate stocks of nearly 70 million barrels cannot be released. In the next three months, with the arrival of the peak of summer travel in the northern hemisphere, refinery replenishment will increase significantly. Those refineries that plan to purchase Iranian crude may have to increase the purchase of spot crude oil; 2. OPEC’s production restriction strategy may be adjusted. The current OPEC production increase plan will continue until July. Its output has gradually increased from 25 million barrels/day to 27 million barrels/day. If Iranian oil is delayed in returning to the market, OPEC can have greater flexibility in the operation of increasing production space. We believe that after the oil price reaches US$75 to US$80/barrel, OPEC will significantly increase production, especially when the OECD oil inventory is close to the pre-epidemic level; 3. The elasticity of global crude oil supply will be further restricted. Countries other than OPEC lack the ability to substantially increase production in the short term, which means that if there is a sudden supply interruption, the probability of an upward risk in oil prices will increase significantly, and the geopolitical premium is expected to return to the crude oil market.

Strategy: neutrally, none

Risk: None

Copper: In the second half of last week, the downstream just-needed purchases resumed.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of May 28 was between 71,370 yuan/ton and 73,390 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper was between -135 and 115 yuan/ton. Last week, after more than a week of adjustment, the commodities showed the strength to rebound again, and the long positions pushed up the price again. The downstream was afraid that the previous rebound momentum would continue afterwards. On Friday, they stopped staying on the sidelines and continued to buy in moderation. On the contrary, it is the traders who are frustrated in the transaction, who are in a dilemma. Under the background of stable discounts, they dare not buy spot and sell futures. In the spot market, amidst the apparent decline in inventories last week, the discounts remained stable. The supplier's willingness to reluctantly sell and keep prices is obvious, while the demander continues to struggle.

Opinion:

short term:

Last week, the domestic imported ore TC price continued to rise by US$0.78/ton to US$35.70/ton. The tight supply at the mines seems to continue to ease. In addition, the continued high price of sulfuric acid also makes the refinery profitable. In addition, the recent domestic relevant policy guidance also aims to curb the sharp rise in commodity prices, so the recent copper price trend may continue to show a relatively tangled state. However, because the US dollar is still in a relatively weak pattern at present, and rising inflation expectations are also positive for copper prices. Therefore, it is expected that although copper prices may not necessarily surge as sharply as before, they are expected to maintain a strong volatility pattern.

Medium and long term:

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: go long positions of external market and short positions of internal market

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. The risk of tightening liquidity

2. Domestic delivery situation

3. The destocking in the second quarter fell short of expectations

PTA: In June, Hengli's maintenance plan was implemented, and the factory reduced the contract volume.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of TA inspection and repairs, the balance sheet was in a slight destocking state in June; the obvious accumulation period is still to be July; TA processing fee is still relatively high in the short-term; PX june/july accumulation rate is limited, it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: hold the current position (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：近期矿随材动，长期关注政策变化

上周铁矿期货价格先抑后扬，从前周五夜盘开盘1090.5到周三994.5收盘，下跌近100点。周四开盘990，盘中继续下探至985后反弹，周五收盘于1063。较前周1096.5下跌33.5元/吨，周跌幅3.06%。现货方面，跟随期货价格的下跌，上周现货价格也下跌100-200元左右。上周青岛港PB粉报1322元/吨，周环比下跌93元/吨，折盘面价1465元/吨，主力合约基差402。超特粉报958元/吨，周环比下跌112元/吨，折盘面1210元/吨，主力合约基差147。普氏62%指数28日报189.55美元/吨，较前周跌10.45美元/吨。相较期货价格，现货价格上周下跌幅度较大，整体上周现货成交一般，周中偶尔呈现成交热情大增现象。随着时间的推移和价格的急速下跌，悲观情绪有所释放。原料和成材价格共振下跌，使得钢厂利润继续被压缩。

供应方面，上周Mysteel新口径全球发运总量3332.4万吨。较前周环比增加22.3%。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2640.2万吨，环比增加16.9%。澳洲发运恢复至1840.5万吨，发运环比增加9.7%；巴西发运量799.7万吨，环比增加37.7%。具体到矿山，力拓发运量环比增加68至629.5万吨；BHP环比增加25至600.9万吨；FMG环比增加6.3至394.4万吨；VALE发运量环比增加203.5至623.3万吨。发货量大幅增加，整体发运量较去年同期也有增长。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率80.99%，环比上周增加0.78%，同比去年下降10.03%；高炉炼铁产能利用率91.41%，环比增加0.23%，同比增加0.03%；钢厂盈利率85.28%，环比下降4.76%，同比下降7.36%；日均铁水产量243.31万吨，环比增加0.61万吨，同比增加0.07万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率62.43%，环比上周提高0.28%，产能利用率74.33%，环比提高0.35%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为80.92%，较去年同期降5.7%，钢厂盈利率74.46%，环比下降3.07。受限产和压产政策以及利润状况影响，钢厂高炉开工率与往年同期相比处于较低水平，短期钢厂产量微增，但趋势上紧跟成材变化。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12622.16，环比增111.56；日均疏港量290.09降1.28。分量方面，澳矿6530.85增67.78，巴西矿3784.85增33.56，贸易矿6441增243.8，球团390.87降14.49，精粉904.7增64.62，块矿1759.32增10.72，粗粉9567.27增50.71；在港船舶数136增7条。铁矿石库存有所增加，整体库存量处于同期较低水平，各品类矿差异较大。

消息方面， 上周五克强总理在两院院士大会上提到注重用市场化办法解决大宗商品价格上涨等经济运行中的突出问题。同一天，高盛一份研究报告认为在发达国家从疫情中复苏之后，中国失去了主导大宗商品市场的能力。消息一出，市场反馈较激烈。

整体来看，本周受成材端和政策影响，铁矿价格波动较大，基差有所修复。短期来看，虽然近两周的超预期回调使得市场情绪异常紊乱，叠加境外矿山发运数据表现极佳，市场对于偏空因素也进行了相应释放。但目前仍是钢材消费旺季，钢材库存仍属低位，华北长流程钢厂经过近两周的下跌仍有200左右的利润所以钢厂生产积极性尚可。这对原料端就形成了一定的支撑。但从中长期来看，铁矿目前180多美金价格仍处高位。在当前双碳目标和环保的背景下，限产和压产政策的推进工作或将延续。铁矿需求有走弱预期。后续应更多关注政策层面变动，短期跟随材动。

策略：

单边 ：短期跟随材动，长期关注政策

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产政策，成材端需求变化，海外生铁产量超预期等

橡胶：供需两弱，期价低位震荡

上周橡胶期价窄幅波动，基本面矛盾不大，总体跟随市场波动。

国内交易所总库存截止5月28为179866吨（+910），期货仓单量176460吨（-210），国内总体干胶产量有限，带来近期仓单及库存同比持续处于低位。截至5月23日，青岛保税区库存继续小幅回落，下游拿货继续增加带来上周库存继续去化。后期库存变化或主要关注供应端。

上周现货价格重心上移。据卓创了解，目前云南整体开割率仅6成左右，较往年整体释放相对有限。轮胎企业整体开工走弱，原料采购需求降低，多数刚需采购为主。国内现货市场整体呈现去库形态，但终端企业成品库存累积，从而对原料端形成负反馈。因此目前市场整体多空分歧较大，业者心态迷茫，主流成交一般。青岛地区天然橡胶美金现货价格上涨，当前下游开工下滑，采买积极性不高，整体成交放量有限。不过相对船货来讲，现货相对较有优势，青岛地区延续降库状态。外盘市场价格重心整体小涨，目前泰国产区新胶释放量依然不多，周内原料胶水收购价格持续上扬，美金船货市场价格运行重心整体上移。而目前听闻国外产区原料释放有限，同时海运费高昂以及集装箱供应问题导致供应链受影响，但国内刚需整体呈现增速放缓趋势，相比之下欧美市场则因原料库存低位且终端刚需复苏提振，整体需求表现旺盛，听闻海外加工厂目前出口欧美船货相对活跃，印尼胶等升水新加坡期货盘面价格。截至上周末，橡胶升水合成胶600元/吨（+675），近期合成胶价格持续下行带来价差逆转。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止5月27日，全钢胎企业开工率55.36%（-7.16%），半钢胎企业开工率56.22（-4.76%）。假期之后开工率环比持续下滑，反映近期需求趋弱，海运费涨价对于轮胎出口也在逐步施压。

观点：目前橡胶呈现供需两弱的格局。供应端国内外均已开割，但国内因云南主产区全面开割推迟到6月下旬，而海南胶水因浓乳价格持续回升带来的原料抢占或重现，两者均对国内原料价格产生支撑。海外目前物候较好，胶水释放正常，但须关注疫情对于短期国内进口节奏的影响，同时海外需求的复苏也增加了对印尼胶的使用，有利于缓解国内库存压力，目前国内港口库存去库趋势或仍可持续一段时间。但从价差结构来看，国内非标价差并没有显著缩窄，同时国内下游轮胎厂开工率持续下滑，需求的环比走弱也将对胶价产生拖累，预计胶价将呈现低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：谈判不确定性增加，伊朗石油重返时间或推迟

上周的伊伊核谈判波澜再起，目前美伊双方对于一些关键事项仍存分歧，美国国务卿布林肯称没有看到伊朗遵守伊核协议的意愿。目前谈判似乎陷入僵局，我们认为如果不能在6月18日伊朗大选之前完成伊核谈判，那么伊朗石油重返市场的时间或将推迟，此前我们预计5月份达成协议，7月份制裁解除伊朗增加石油出口，但目前有可能推迟至9月达成协议，11月解除制裁增加出口。此外，伊朗大选极有可能选出一位强硬派总统，对未来的伊核谈判可能带来新的不确定性，上周从盘面上看，油价大幅上涨回补此前缺口，也显示出市场对于谈判不确定性的担忧。

我们认为伊朗石油重返市场推迟到四季度的主要影响有：1、现货市场将会趋紧，伊朗当前近7000万桶的原油凝析油库存无法释放，而未来三个月随着北半球夏季出行高峰的到来，炼厂补库将显著增加，那些准备采购伊朗原油的炼厂可能不得不增加现货原油的采购；2、欧佩克的限产策略可能调整，当前欧佩克的增产计划持续至7月份，将其产量从2500万桶/日逐步提升至2700万桶/日，如果伊朗石油迟迟不能重返市场，欧佩克在增产空间的操作上灵活性可以更大，我们认为在油价达到75至80美元/桶后，欧佩克将会显著增产，尤其是在OECD石油库存已经接近疫情前水平的情况下；3、全球原油的供给弹性会进一步受限，除了欧佩克之外的国家缺乏在短期内大幅增产的能力，这意味着如果出现突发性断供，油价产生上行风险的概率大幅增加，地缘政治溢价有望重回原油市场。

策略：中性，暂无

风险：无

铜：上周后半周下游刚需采买有所恢复

现货情况：

据SMM讯，5月28日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于71,370元/吨至73,390元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于-135元/吨至115元/吨之间。上周大宗商品在调整一周有余之后，再显反弹之力，多头推涨，下游唯恐此后延续之前的反弹势头，于上周五不再停驻观望，继续适量刚需采买，交易受抑的反而是贸易商，表现左右为难，贴水持稳的背景下既不敢买现抛期。现货市场在上周库存明显下降的表现中贴水持稳，供方惜售挺价意愿明显，需方则继续纠结拉锯。

观点：

短期：

上周国内进口矿TC价格继续回升0.78美元/吨至35.70美元/吨，矿端供应紧俏似乎持续得到缓解，此外硫酸价格持续维持高位也使得炼厂利润尚可，加之近期国内相关政策导向也旨在抑制大宗商品价格的大幅上涨，故此近期铜价走势或持续呈现相对纠结的状态。不过由于目前美元仍处于相对偏弱的格局，并且持续走高的通胀预期也对铜价存在一定利好，故此预计此后铜价虽然不一定会有像此前那样太过猛烈的飙涨，但料仍将维持震荡偏强的格局。

中长期：

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们维持铜价长线看涨的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：多外盘 空内盘 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出虚值看跌

关注点：

1. 流动性收紧的风险 2. 国内交仓情况 3. 2季度去库不及预期

PTA：6月恒力检修计划落地，工厂削减合约量

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，6月平衡表小幅去库，明显累库期仍待7月，TA加工费短期仍可；PX6-7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限

策略建议：（1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。