Iron ore: Shipment volume and arrival volume have both decreased, and the relaxation of production restrictions is positive for the market.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore open interest increased, while its price fluctuated upward throughout the day, and finally closed at 1,106 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.5 yuan/ton, or 5.28%. In terms of spot, the spot transactions at the port reported 1.165 million tons. Qingdao Port PB fine reported an increase of 61 yuan/ton to 1,383 yuan/ton , and SSF gained 55 yuan/ton to 1,013 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low grades widened week-on-week.

This week, iron ore of China’s 45 ports totaled 23.073 million tons, a week-on-week drop of 6.1%. The total global shipment volume was 30.382 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.942 million tons. The total shipment by Australia and Brazil was 23.729 million tons, a decrease of 2.673 million tons from the previous week. It was reported yesterday that Tangshan adjusted the daily emission reduction measures of steel enterprises. If the draft is implemented, the average daily molten iron output and the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity will be increased simultaneously, which will benefit iron ore and other charge materials.

Under the premise of limited production in Tangshan in the early stage and 30% of the production capacity has not yet been utilized, the overall supply and demand of iron ore are strong, while the inventory is accumulating at a low level. Yesterday, Tangshan held a symposium for steel companies to adjust the sintering machine's production restriction plan, which sent a signal to the market to relax emission control. Iron ore prices were boosted by this news and led the ferrous sector to increase. In the short term, Tangshan, which has the most stringent production restriction control in China, is expected to increase the supply of steel products nationwide after raising the signal of relaxation. The average daily molten iron output is expected to continue to rise on the basis of the current high level, which will greatly affect iron ore. Favorably, the price of iron ore is expected to operate on the strong side under the premise that it is facing a positive fundamental.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: bullish in the short term

Cross-species: go long positions of iron ore and short positions of thread and hot-rolled coil

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Policies curb excessive speculation and suppress high prices of raw materials

2. decline in demand for thread and hot-rolled coil in the off-season

3. the epidemic might worsen.

Rubber: Overseas raw materials fell sharply, and rubber prices fell again.

On May 31, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,400 (-260) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,200 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -475 yuan/ton (-115); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 121,550 (+7,985) lots, the short position was 174,085 (+4,228) lots, and the net short position was 52,535 (-3,757) lots.

On May 31, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,815 (-215) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,685 (-25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,680 (-35) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,635 (-140) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -403 (-69) yuan/ton.

As of May 28: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 179,866 (+910) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 176,460 (-210) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 65.27 (0), cup lump 45.7 (-0.8), latex 59 (-4.5), RSS3 65.01 (-4.78).

As of May 27, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.36% (-7.16%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.22% (-4.76%).

Opinion: The sharp decline in the price of rubber in Thailand over the weekend led to a renewed weakness in the market price yesterday. The current drag on rubber prices is mainly in demand and spreads. Since the beginning of May, the operating rate of downstream tire factories has continued to fall, and finished product inventories have also begun to accumulate, mainly due to the decline in tire export demand and the weakening of domestic replacement demand. As a result, the non-standard price difference of Shanghai rubber is still at a relatively high level, which brings unabated pressure on market arbitrage. It is expected that under the expectation of an increase in supply in the later period, the price of rubber will maintain a weak trend.

Strategy: cautiously bearish

Risk points:

1. production increases sharply

2. inventory continues to accumulate

3. demand falls sharply

Crude oil: Iran said that the negotiations have made significant progress, but they have not yet been fully reached.

Yesterday Iran said that the negotiations have made significant progress, but Western countries have not made any relevant statements, and the negotiations have not yet been reached. According to Russian sources, the fifth round of negotiations will be the final round. If no agreement is reached in the end, it means that the negotiation will have to wait until after the Iranian election on June 18. From the perspective of the OPEC meeting, it is expected that OPEC will continue to implement its previous production increase plan, and the output in July is expected to increase by 840,000 barrels per day from the previous month. However, due to the undecided outcome of the current Iranian negotiations, it is unlikely that adjustments will be made to the output policy after August at this OPEC ministerial meeting. OPEC's relevant production decisions still require a clearer situation in Iran and a clearer demand recovery.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk: None

Copper: Holders' sentiment on supporting prices has revived.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the last trading day in May, with no external guidance, the performance of Shanghai Copper stabilized. In the spot market, the next month contract completely dominates the market, and quotations remains firm. As the market steadily rises, the downstream has once again stopped to wait and see, and it is difficult to see a large amount of buying interest. Only a small number of traders implement rolling operation when the next month price difference is around 300 yuan/ton, supporting market transactions. However, market suppliers still showed a reluctance to sell and thus supporting the price, which led to a steady narrowing increase of market quotation discounts. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a discount of 80-70 yuan/ton for the next month contract, and some trade buying clearly led the market. After receiving the goods in the morning market, the holders raised their prices slightly to a discount of 60 yuan/ton, and even held a discount of 50 yuan/ton, in order not to sell, and the activity of trading has slowed down. High-Grade Copper returned to the supporting price sentiment after the supply of inflows was digested last week, opening up the price gap with Standard-Grade Copper. Except for the small discount of ENM, Guixi basically reported a premium ranging from 20-50 yuan/ton, but the market is still unable to accept the rhythm of premiums that have already occurred in June. There is a big difference in the differentiation between hydro-copper brands. Some MBs and Indian STs have flowed into the market to suppress prices, and the discount is around 160 yuan. However, if a small amount of ESOX is worth around 100 yuan discount, it is almost equivalent to the ISA price.

Opinion: Yesterday, as the United States’ Memorial Day, the financial market was closed, and overall fluctuations were relatively limited. However, the U.S. dollar is still showing a relatively weak pattern, which makes the trend of copper prices show a strong volatility at a high level. And it can be found that since the beginning of this week, the sentiment of supporting price of the holders who are reluctant to sell has reappeared. Therefore, in this context, copper prices may still maintain a strong volatility pattern at a high level. However, since the domestic willingness to regulate commodity prices still exists, it is also unlikely that there will be a too drastic increase in a short period of time.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: go long positions on external market and short positions on internal market

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may intensify.

PTA: Overhauls increase, and processing costs are rising rapidly.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the balance sheet in June showed a slight de-stocking state; the apparent accumulation period is still to be July, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：发运到港齐降，限产放松利好

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石放量增仓震荡上行，最终收于1106元/吨，涨55.5元/吨，涨幅5.28%。现货方面，港口现货成交116.5万吨。青岛港PB报1383元/吨涨61元/吨，超特报1013元/吨涨55元/吨，高低品价差环比走扩。

本周中国45港铁矿石到港总量2307.3万吨，环比降6.1%。全球发运总量3038.2万吨，周环比下降294.2万吨。澳巴发运总量2372.9万吨，环比下降267.3万吨。昨日传唐山调整钢企日常减排措施，若该草案落地，日均铁水产量和高炉产能利用率将同步提升，利好铁矿石等炉料。

在前期唐山限产，30%产能尚未利用的前提下，铁矿石整体供需两旺紧平衡，库存低位小幅累库。昨日唐山召开钢铁企业调整烧结机停限产方案座谈会，向市场释放出排放管控放松的信号，铁矿石价格受此消息提振领涨黑色板块。短期来看，全国限产管控最严的唐山，在提出放松信号后，全国范围内的钢材保供预期增强，日均铁水产量有望在当前的高位基础上继续攀升，对铁矿石形成较大利好，铁矿石价格在基本面向好的前提下，预计将偏强运行。

策略：

单边 ：短期看涨

跨品种：空材多矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

政策抑制过度投机，打压原料高价格，成材淡季需求下降，疫情加重等。

橡胶：海外原料大挫，胶价重新回落

31号，RU主力收盘13400（-260）元/吨，混合胶报价12200元/吨（-150），主力合约基差-475元/吨（-115）；前二十主力多头持仓121550（+7985），空头持仓174085（+4228），净空持仓52535（-3757）。

31号，NR主力收盘价10815（-215）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1685（-25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1680美元/吨（-35），印尼标胶1635（-140）美元/吨。主力合约基差-403（-69）元/吨。

截至5月28日：交易所总库存179866（+910），交易所仓单176460（-210）。

原料：生胶片65.27（0），杯胶45.7（-0.8），胶水59（-4.5），烟片65.01（-4.78）。

截止5月27日，国内全钢胎开工率为55.36%（-7.16%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.22%(-4.76%）。

观点：周末泰国胶水价格大幅下行带来昨天盘面期价重新走弱。目前胶价的拖累主要在需求以及价差上。五月上旬以来，下游轮胎厂开工率持续走低，成品库存也开始累积，主要是轮胎出口需求下降以及国内替换需求的走弱。由此导致沪胶非标价差仍处于较高水平，带来盘面套利压力不减，预计在后期供应增加预期下，胶价维持偏弱走势。

策略：谨慎偏空

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：伊朗称谈判取得重大进展，但尚未完全达成

昨日伊朗称谈判取得重大进展，但西方国家并没有相关表态，目前谈判尚未达成，根据俄罗斯方面消息，第五轮谈判将是最后一轮，如果最终没有达成一致，意味着再次谈判要等到6月18日伊朗大选之后，当前谈判结果仍未有最终定论。而从欧佩克会议的情况来看，预计欧佩克继续执行此前的增产计划，7月份的产量预计环比提升84万桶/日，但基于当前伊朗谈判结果未定，在本次的欧佩克部长会议上不太可能对8月份往后的产量政策作出调整，欧佩克的相关产量决策依然需要伊朗局势明朗化，以及需求复苏更加明朗化。

策略：中性

风险：暂无

铜：持货商挺价情绪再起

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日是5月最后一个交易日，又没有外盘引导，沪铜表现趋稳，现货市场下月票完全主导市场，报价持坚。随着盘面稳中趋升，下游再次驻足观望，难见大量买兴，仅少量贸易商操作隔月价差于300元/吨左右时买现抛远，支撑市场交投，但市场供方依旧呈现惜售挺价情绪，导致市场报价贴水稳步缩窄上抬。早市平水铜对下月票始报于贴水80-70元/吨，部分贸易买兴明显引领市场交投，持货商在早市被收货以后小幅抬价至贴水60元/吨，甚至有持坚于贴水50元/吨，意在惜售，交投活跃度有所减缓。好铜在上周流入货源被消化后重新回到挺价情绪中，与平水铜拉开价差，除ENM小幅贴水以外，-P与贵溪基本报于升水20-50元/吨不等，但市场尚难接受未进6月已然升水的节奏。湿法铜品牌间分化差异较大，部分MB，印度ST等流入市场打压价格，贴水在160元左右，但如少量ESOX顶于贴水百元附近，几乎等同于ISA价格。

观点：昨日，由于美国方面为阵亡将士纪念日，故此金融市场休市，整体波动较为有限。不过美元依旧呈现相对偏弱的格局，这使得铜价走势呈现震荡偏强态势。并且可以发现，本周以来，持货商挺价惜售的情绪再度显现，因此在这样的背景下，铜价或仍维持震荡偏强的格局，不过由于国内对于商品价格调控的意愿依然存在，因此要在短时内出现太过猛烈的涨幅的可能性也同样不大。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：多外盘 空内盘 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：停车检修增多，加工费快速上升

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，6月平衡表持续去库，明显累库期仍待7月，TA加工费短期仍可；PX6-7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。