Iron ore: The policy needs to be clarified, and the price fluctuates at a high level.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the open interest of iron ore shrank and its market price fluctuated at a high level, closing at 1,168.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.5 yuan/ton, or 2.77%. The port spot transaction was 873,000 tons, and the forward spot transaction was 3.88 million tons. Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,425 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton, SSF reported 1,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton, and the price difference between high and low-grade products was 415 yuan/ton.

Recently, the State Administration of Market Supervision has stated that it will attach great importance to closely tracking price trends, strengthening early warning analysis, regularly monitoring the price trends of commodities such as iron ore, steel, coal, and crude oil, forming weekly analysis reports, and implementing effective supervision in a targeted manner. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also stated that it will cooperate with relevant departments to resolutely crack down on hoarding, malicious speculation, and price gouging.

Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are tightly balanced between supply and demand. The recent policy turbulence on prices has continued to be strong, and the volatility has increased. The short-term market changes to follow the policy direction have yet to be clarified. On the premise that the fundamentals is good, and until the deterministic policy of tightening or relaxing the production limit is introduced, it is expected that iron ore will continue to run strongly.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: bullish in the short term

Cross-species: go long positions of iron ore and short positions of thread and hot-rolled coil

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Policies curb excessive speculation and suppress high prices of raw materials

2. decline in demand for thread and hot-rolled coil in the off-season

3. the epidemic might worsen.

Rubber: Domestic demand has fallen, and rubber prices have remained weak.

On June 2, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,165 (-180) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,100 (-100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -490 yuan/ton (-20); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 129,521 (+6,440) lots, the short position was 182,950 (+6,629) lots, and the net short position was 53,429 (+189) lots.

On June 2, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,530 (-230) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,695 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,665 (-20) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,625 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -167 (+135) yuan/ton.

As of May 28: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 179,866 (+910) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 176,460 (-210) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 62.66 (-2.61), cup lump 44.7 (0), latex 55 (-1.5), RSS3 65.37 (+0.15).

As of May 27, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 55.36% (-7.16%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.22% (-4.76%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the price of rubber remained weak. The trading logic of the current rubber price lies in the weakening of domestic demand on a week-on week basis and the drag of the downward price of overseas raw materials. As futures market prices continued to fall, the current RU non-standard spreads continued to narrow. The latest port inventory continues to decline, and this factor still has strong support for mixed rubber prices. However, the recent continuous weakening of downstream demand data may continue to suppress the level of tire factory operating rates, which will be detrimental to tire rubber prices. The operating rate of domestic downstream tire factories has continued to decline, and finished product inventories have also begun to accumulate, mainly due to the decline in tire export demand and the weakening of domestic replacement demand. Under the expectation of an increase in supply in the later period, the price of rubber maintains a weak trend.

Strategy: cautiously bearish

Risk points:

1. production increases sharply

2. inventory continues to accumulate

3. demand falls sharply

Crude oil: The Iranian nuclear agreement has not yet been reached, and oil prices continue to rise.

Due to the unsuccessful negotiations in the Iranian nuclear agreement and OPEC’s wait-and-see attitude, the current market has begun to enter the trading theme of "excessive tightening", that is, the supply and demand gap in the future oil market will continue to expand, and inventory de-stocking will accelerate. At present, the US crude oil market already has this feature. With the continued decline of US crude oil inventories, we expect that US crude oil exports will be restricted in the future, and the US supply and demand gap will eventually be transmitted to non-US markets. At present, demand in Europe and the United States continues to improve. Although the recovery of demand in the Asia-Pacific region is relatively lagging, as refineries gradually resume production from overhaul and large-scale refining and chemical projects are put into operation, the margin of crude oil procurement demand is expected to improve marginally. With the delay of Iranian oil returning to the market and OPEC has not yet released further output signals after August, refineries may replenish inventories in a panic sentiment, and the spot market is expected to be boosted.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement is reached or a black swan appears in the epidemic.

Copper: Copper prices continue to fluctuate at a high level.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the downstream market still maintained a wait-and-see sentiment yesterday. Traders still bought spot and sold futures on the premise of monthly fluctuations, and holders continued to reluctantly sell in order to support prices. In the morning market, the monthly price difference was 270-300 yuan/ton, and traders were actively inquiring prices. Standard-Grade Copper first reported with no discount or premium, and the market transaction and buying were more active. Holders seized the opportunity to raise the premium to 10-20 yuan/ton, and the transaction was fair at a premium of 10 yuan/ton. As the monthly price difference narrowed to the 250-260 yuan/ton range after the second trading period, the number of liquidators increased, the transactions with a premium of 20 yuan/ton was significantly blocked, and trading activity was significantly reduced. Due to the limited supply of High-Grade Copper in the market, coupled with the lack of attention from the downstream, the overall preference is limited, resulting in the market quotation stabilizing at a premium of 30-50 yuan/ton, but the price difference of Standard-Grade Copper has narrowed significantly. The price difference between hydro-copper and Standard-Grade Copper continued to remain stable at around 80 yuan/ton, and the overall quotation stood at a discount of 80-60 yuan/ton.

Opinion: Yesterday, the US dollar index was once strong, which put copper prices under pressure in a short period of time. However, due to the recent continued strength of oil prices, both from the overall environment of industrial products and from the perspective of boosting inflation, they have given relatively good support to copper prices. And at present, it can be found that the sentiment of domestic holders supporting prices has reappeared. Although the spot transaction is still relatively sluggish, the holders are not willing to adjust the premiums and discounts in order to ship the goods. Therefore, under such circumstances, it is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: go long positions on external market and short positions on internal market

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may intensify.

PTA: The processing fee was adjusted back after the over-increasing.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the balance sheet in June continued to be de-stocked; the apparent accumulation period is still to be July, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：政策有待明确，价格高位震荡

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石缩量减仓高位震荡，收于1168.5元/吨，涨31.5元/吨，涨幅2.77%。港口现货成交87.3万吨，远期现货成交388万吨。青岛港PB报1425元/吨涨7元/吨，超特报1040元/吨涨2元/吨，高低品价差415元/吨。

近日，市场监管总局表示要高度重视，密切跟踪价格走势，加强预警分析，定期监测铁矿石、钢铁、煤炭、原油等大宗商品价格走势，形成每周分析报告，并有针对性的实施有效监管。工信部也表示将配合有关部门坚决打击囤积居奇、恶意炒作、哄抬价格的行为。

整体来看，铁矿石基本面供需紧平衡，近期政策端对价格的扰动持续偏强，波动率有所加大，短期市场跟随政策导向变动，尚待明确，在暂时铁矿基本面向好的前提下，限产趋严或放松的确定性政策出台之前，预计铁矿石将继续偏强运行。

策略：

单边 ：短期看涨

跨品种：空材多矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

政策抑制过度投机，打压原料高价格，成材淡季需求下降，疫情加重等。

橡胶：国内需求下滑，胶价维持弱势

2号，RU主力收盘13165（-180）元/吨，混合胶报价12100元/吨（-100），主力合约基差-490元/吨（-20）；前二十主力多头持仓129521（+6440），空头持仓182950（+6629），净空持仓53429（+189）。

2号，NR主力收盘价10530（-230）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1695（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1665美元/吨（-20），印尼标胶1625（-20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-167（+135）元/吨。

截至5月28日：交易所总库存179866（+910），交易所仓单176460（-210）。

原料：生胶片62.66（-2.61），杯胶44.7（0），胶水55（-1.5），烟片65.37（+0.15）。

截止5月27日，国内全钢胎开工率为55.36%（-7.16%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.22%(-4.76%）。

观点：昨天胶价维持弱势运行，目前胶价的交易逻辑在于国内需求的环比示弱以及海外原料价格下行的拖累。随着期货盘面价格持续回落，目前RU非标价差继续收窄。最新的港口库存继续下降，该因素对混合胶价格仍有较强支撑，但近期下游需求数据的持续走弱，或将持续压制轮胎厂开工率水平，进而不利于轮胎胶价格。国内下游轮胎厂开工率持续走低，成品库存也开始累积，主要是轮胎出口需求下降以及国内替换需求的走弱。在后期供应增加预期下，胶价维持偏弱走势。

策略：谨慎偏空

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：伊核协议暂未达成，油价继续上涨

由于近期伊朗谈判未果以及欧佩克按兵不动，目前市场开始进入到“过度收紧”的主题交易中，即未来油市供需缺口持续放大，同时库存去化加快，目前美国原油市场已经具备这一特征，随着美国原油库存的持续下滑，我们预计美国原油出口量未来将会受到抑制，美国的供需缺口终将向非美市场传导，目前欧美需求持续向好，虽然亚太需求复苏相对滞后，但随着炼厂从检修中逐步复产，以及大炼化项目投产，原油采购需求边际预计也将边际改善，而当前伊朗石油重返市场时间推迟叠加欧佩克并没有释放8月份以后进一步增产信号，炼厂可能会恐慌性补库存，现货市场有望得到提振。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置

风险：伊核协议达成或疫情出现黑天鹅

铜：铜价持续高位震荡

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日盘面整顿整理，蓄势等待，下游依旧维持驻足观望走势，贸易商依旧以月差波动为前提买现抛期，持货商继续挺价惜售。早市隔月价差270-300元/吨，贸易商询价积极，平水铜始报于平水，市场成交买盘较为活跃，持货商伺机上抬至升水10-20元/吨，升水10元/吨成交尚可，随着第二节交易时段后月差收窄于250-260元/吨区间，平仓换现者增加，升水20元/吨成交受阻明显，交投活跃度明显降低。好铜由于市场货源不多，外加下游关注度不强，整体青睐度有限，导致市场报价企稳于升水30-50元/吨，但和平水铜价差明显收窄。湿法铜和平水铜价差继续维稳于80元/吨左右，整体报至贴水80-60元/吨。

观点：昨日，美元指数曾一度走强，短时内使得铜价承压。但是由于油价于近期的持续强势，这无论是从工业品的整体环境还是从通胀提振的角度而言，都给予了铜价相对较好的支撑。并且目前可以发现国内持货商挺价的情绪再度出现，虽然现货成交依旧较为清淡，但是持货商并不愿让渡升贴水以求出货，故此在这样的情况下，预计铜价仍将维持震荡偏强的态势。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：多外盘 空内盘 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：加工费超涨回调

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，6月平衡表持续去库，明显累库期仍待7月，TA加工费短期仍可；PX6-7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。