Iron ore: Production restrictions are expected to resume, and prices fluctuate at high levels.

Affected by the relaxation and tightening of steel production restrictions last week, the open interest of iron ore futures first increased and then declined slightly. Last Friday, the iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,168.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 105.5 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis, or a weekly increase of 9.92%. In terms of spot, Qingdao Port PB fine reported 1,425 yuan/ton last week, a week-on-week increase of 108 yuan/ton, the discounted price was 1,578 yuan/ton, and the basis of the most-active contract was 409. SSF reported 1,040 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis, with a discount of 1,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the most-active contract was 132. The Platts 62% index reported US$208.35/ton on the 4th, up US$9.6/ton. In terms of price performance, spot and futures prices have increased more than Platts prices. In terms of transactions, last week’s main iron ore port had an average daily transaction of 1.08 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, but it was still at a historical low level over the same period.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total global shipping volume was 30.382 million tons, a decrease of 2.942 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 23.729 million tons, a decrease of 2.673 million tons from the previous week; the total shipment from Australia was 16.821 million tons, a decrease of 1.584 million tons from the previous week; of which, Australia shipped 12.884 million tons to China, a decrease of 2.966 million tons from the previous week; The total shipment volume of Brazil was 6.908 million tons, a decrease of 1.089 million tons from the previous week. Last week, the average daily output of domestic iron ore 266 mines was 440,300 tons, an increase of 7500 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 69.79%, an increase of 1.19% from the previous week. On the supply side, the overall shipment volume of external ores declined slightly, while the internal ores rose steadily and slightly, and the overall supply performance was tight.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 80.86%, a decrease of 0.13% from last week and a decrease of 10.16% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 91.89%, a week-on-week increase of 0.48%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.02%; the profit rate of steel mills was 86.15%, a week-on-week increase of 0.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.4459 million tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous week, and a year-on-year decrease 500 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 62.29%, a decrease of 0.14% week-on-week, a capacity utilization rate of 74.43%, a week-on-week increase of 0.1%, and a utilization rate of 81.03% excluding eliminated capacity, a decrease of 5.34% from the same period last year. The profit rate of steel mill was 76.69 %, a decrease of 1.23% week-on-week. Last week, demand for iron ore continued to climb at a high level, market participants should pay attention to the impact of the subsequent off-season and tightening expectations of production restrictions.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 12.5347 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 874,600 tons; the average daily port congestion volume dropped by 43,700 tons to 2.9446 million tons. For different channels, Australian ores dropped by 105,300 tons to 65.2032 million tons, Brazil ores dropped by 1.0631 million tons to 36.7854 million tons, trade ores increased by 0.541 million tons to 64.951 million tons, pellets dropped by 95,300 tons to 3.8134 million tons, iron ore concentrate dropped by 0.1969 million tons to 8.8501 million tons, lump ore dropped by 31,600 tons to 17.5616 million tons, coarse fine dropped by 0.5508 million tons to95.1219 million tons; the number of ships in port down by 6 to 130. Iron ore inventory has changed from increase to decrease again. The overall inventory was at a low level over the same period. The pellet ore inventory has dropped significantly, the inventory of high-grade ore was relatively low, the price difference between high and low-grade ores continues to hit new highs, and the contradiction between the variety structure is more prominent, which played a certain extent supporting role for ore prices.

On the whole, the current supply and demand of iron ore are tightly balanced, the inventory remains a destocking state at a low level, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the price is relatively strong in the short term. In the future, investors need to pay attention to the situation of the shipment increase of foreign ores at the end of the second quarter, the performance of steel demand in the off-season and the implementation of production restrictions. Looking forward to the second half of the year, iron ore prices will fluctuate mainly in accordance with the national production restrictions. If production restrictions are relaxed or not implemented, iron ore prices will remain high and strong; if production restrictions begin nationwide, iron ore prices will be weaker in accordance with the intensity of production restrictions.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutrally hold the current positions in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Policies curb excessive speculation and suppress high prices of raw materials

2. decline in demand for thread and hot-rolled coil in the off-season

3. the epidemic might worsen.

Rubber: The domestic production is gradually released, and the upside price space of the futures price is blocked.

Rubber futures prices fluctuated downward last week. After the RU price broke 13,000 yuan/ton, it fluctuated within a narrow range around this price. Last week's trading logic was still the basis convergence logic. Driven by the sharp decline in overseas raw materials, futures prices continued to bottom out.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of June 4 was 181,264 tons (+1,398), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 176,150 tons (-310). The overall domestic dry rubber output is limited, which has caused recent warehouse receipts and inventories to continue to be low year-on-year. As of May 27, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, but the decline has narrowed recently. Investors should pay attention to the approach of inventory turning point.

The spot price center shifted downward last week. According to Zhuo Chuang's understanding, the volume of new rubber in domestic and foreign production areas is expected to continue to expand, while the demand side is showing signs of weakness, which makes prices lack support. Although foreign production areas have raised concerns about supply release due to the resurging of the new crown epidemic, the continued sharp drop in raw material prices in production areas reflects that the market is focusing more on the decline in demand; spot prices mostly follow the downward adjustment of the market. The overall offer in the Qingdao market is relatively active, but due to poor downstream and terminal demand, the overall transaction volume is limited. Recently, spot transactions have weakened, and warehouse outgoings have slowed down significantly. The focus of the external market price dropped slightly. Although the new rubber produced in Thailand has not yet been fully released, the purchase price of raw material rubber dropped sharply during the week. The main reason was that the epidemic in Southeast Asia has spread again, which has affected terminal demand. It was heard that some factories in Malaysia asked the Thai factory to postpone the shipment, which caused a sharp drop in the price of rubber in Thailand. In addition, due to the weak domestic market demand and the low willingness of tire factories to stock up, the U.S. dollar cargo generally witnessed a weak decline during the week. As of the end of last week, the rubber premium was 625 yuan/ton (+25) for synthetic rubber and the continuous decline of synthetic rubber price has led to a reversal of the spread.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of June 4, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 60.46% (+5.1%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 59.98 (+3.8%). The operating rate rebounded slightly last week. Due to weak domestic demand and hindered overseas exports, the rate of recovery was limited.

Opinion: Last week, prices of overseas raw materials fell sharply due to weaker demand. However, the main overseas production areas are still in the early stage of delivery, and the release of output is limited. After the negative reaction on the demand side last week, the decline in raw material prices may bring the factory's willingness to replenish part of the warehouse, and the price may be expected to stabilize. As the main production areas in Yunnan usher in full-scale delivery, the output will gradually increase and there will be both long positions and short positions in the suply side of the market. At present, domestic port inventory continues to be de-stocked, but the rate of de-stocking has slowed down in the past two weeks, mainly due to the slowdown in the purchasing rhythm of downstream factories, and attention should be paide to the coming of the inventory turning point in the later period. From the perspective of the spread structure, the domestic non-standard spreads have not narrowed significantly. At the same time, the operating rate of domestic downstream tire factories continues to decline, and the weakening of the demand will also drag down the price of rubber. It is expected that the price of rubber will fluctuate at a low level.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk points:

1. Domestic supply increases sharply

2. demand continues to weaken due to the impact of the epidemic

3. funding might be tight.

Crude oil: Iran negotiations are postponed, and the fundamentals of the US market are strong.

No agreement was reached in the fifth round of Iran’s nuclear talks last week, and follow-up negotiations will continue. But as far as the current time is concerned, hopes are slim before the Iranian government election on June 18, which will delay the return of Iranian oil to the market. The market expects that the return of Iranian oil to the market will be postponed from July to September. Last week, Brent crude oil exceeded $70/barrel. The market consensus of this boost is that this was due to the fact that Iran’s negotiations are delayed and OPEC’s wait-and-see attitude. However, we believe that the current strong oil price is supported by fundamental factors, mainly as follows: 1. The monthly difference of WT crude oil is significantly strengthened, and the discount to Brent crude oil has narrowed; 2. Recently, diesel oil cracks have significantly strengthened, and the profits of European and American refineries have been significantly restored; 3. The physical discounts of some oil types have rebounded. Of course, it should be noted that the current strong fundamentals of the oil market have obvious regional characteristics. The US market has the strongest recovery, followed by Europe, while the Asia-Pacific is relatively weak. From the perspective of US fundamentals, on the supply side, the increase in US shale oil production is still slow. Weekly EIA production data shows that U.S. crude oil production is still hovering at 11 million barrels per day, and the problem that new oil wells cannot compensate for the decline in old oil wells has begun to emerge. On the demand side, refined oil consumption has rebounded rapidly. So far, the US traffic congestion index has rebounded to above 80%, which is basically close to the travel level before the epidemic. The more beautiful is the US aviation consumption. With the increase in the number of travellers, the number of US TSA airport security inspections has risen rapidly in the past month, thereby boosting aviation kerosene consumption, which is also an important reason for the recent rebound in diesel split. At present, the number of US airport security checks has reached about 70% of the number before the epidemic, and jet fuel consumption is the last kilometer of the recovery of overall oil consumption. From the perspective of the operating rate of U.S. refineries, it has now recovered to about 90%, which has stimulated crude oil processing. However, it is worth noting that the increase in operating rates of U.S. refineries has not led to a significant increase in refined oil inventory. At present, both crude oil and refined oil inventories in the United States have returned to the level of the same period in the 5-year history. Therefore, the fundamentals of the current US market come from the boost of supply and demand. The trend of tightening fundamentals is expected to be maintained. The current tightness in the US market has begun to spread to non-US markets through prices and exports. We expect that the net import of crude oil from the United States will increase in the future and the price of its exported crude oil will increase, as the demand from local refineries increases and starts to compete with the export market for raw materials, while the European market will bear the brunt. In the context of OPEC's unwillingness to further increase production, the Asia-Pacific refineries will also feel the pressure of tight supply after the gradual resumption of production in the future.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement might be reached before June 18 or a black swan appears in the epidemic.

Copper: Supply and demand may both rebound, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of June 4 was between 71,030 yuan/ton and 73,775 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount quotation for Standard-Grade Copper was between -70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton. When copper prices fell last week, downstream buying has returned, and both inquiries and active replenishment have increased. However, the holders have not taken the initiative to adjust premiums and discounts in order to ship as soon as possible, and there are still situations where prices are supported due to the reluctance to sell. Therefore, although spot transactions have rebounded, the extent is not very significant.

Opinion:

short term:

Last week, the domestic imported ore TC price continued to rise by US$0.42/ton to US$36.12/ton, and the tight supply at the mine end continued to be eased. In addition, the continued high price of sulfuric acid also made refineries profitable. Recently, the price difference of concentrate and scrap copper has gradually widened. The supply of scrap copper is also gradually increasing. This may make the future supply gradually move towards a relatively sufficient situation. But on the other hand, if prices fall due to increased supply, downstream demand will continue to recover while the traditional peak season for consumption is still present, which will support copper prices. Therefore, at present, for copper varieties, the greater probability is that the pattern of fluctuating at high levels will be maintained.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: go long positions on external market and short positions on internal market

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. The risk of tightening liquidity

2. Domestic delivery situation

3. Destocking in the second quarter fell short of expectations.

PTA: Destocking is expected to continue in June, and PTA processing fees increase rapidly.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the balance sheet in June continued to be de-stocked; the apparent accumulation period is still to be July, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：限产预期再起，价格高位震荡

上周先后受到钢材限产放松和趋严的影响，铁矿石期货缩量增仓上涨后小幅回落。上周五铁矿2109合约收于1168.5元/吨，周环比涨105.5元/吨，周涨幅9.92%。现货方面，上周青岛港PB粉报1425元/吨，周环比上涨108元/吨，折盘面价1578元/吨，主力合约基差409。超特粉报1040元/吨，周环比上涨74元/吨，折盘面1300元/吨，主力合约基差132。普氏62%指数4日报208.35美元/吨，涨9.6美元/吨。价格表现方面，期现价格涨幅大于普氏价格。成交方面，上周铁矿石主港日均成交108万吨，周环比增加21万吨，但仍处于历史同期低位。

供应方面，据Mysteel统计全球发运总量3038.2万吨，环比减少294.2万吨。其中澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2372.9万吨，环比减少267.3万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1682.1万吨，环比减少158.4万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1288.4万吨，环比减少296.6万吨；巴西发货总量690.8万吨，环比减少108.9万吨。上周国内266矿山铁矿日均产量44.03万吨，环比增加0.75万吨，产能利用率69.79%，环比增加1.19%。供应端外矿整体发运量小幅转降，内矿则稳定小幅上涨，整体供应表现偏紧。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率80.86%，环比上周下降0.13%，同比去年下降10.16%；高炉炼铁产能利用率91.89%，环比增加0.48%，同比下降0.02%；钢厂盈利率86.15%，环比增加0.87%，同比下降6.93%；日均铁水产量244.59万吨，环比增加1.28万吨，同比下降0.05万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率62.29%，环比下降0.14%，产能利用率74.43%，环比提高0.1%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为81.03%，较去年同期降5.34%，钢厂盈利率76.69%，环比下降1.23。上周铁矿石需求继续高位攀升，关注后续淡季及限产预期趋严的影响。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12534.7万吨，环比降87.46万吨；日均疏港量294.46降4.37万吨。分量方面，澳矿6520.32降10.53，巴西矿3678.54降106.31，贸易矿6495.1增54.1，球团381.34降9.53，精粉885.01降19.69，块矿1756.16降3.16，粗粉9512.19降55.08；在港船舶数130降6条。铁矿石库存由增再次转降，整体库存量处于同期较低水平，球团块矿降库明显，高品矿库存较低，高低品价差持续创新高，品种结构矛盾较为突出，一定程度上对矿价起到支撑作用。

整体来看，当前铁矿石供需紧平衡，库存保持低位去库，基本面表现较为健康，价格短期偏强运行。后续需关注季末外矿发运冲量的情况及钢材淡季需求表现和限产落地情况。展望下半年，铁矿石价格将主要跟随全国的限产情况而波动，若限产放松或不限产，铁矿石价格将维持高位偏强运行，若全国范围内开始限产及压产，则铁矿石价格将根据限产的力度偏弱运行。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向，成材端淡季需求表现，疫情加重等。

橡胶：国内产量逐步释放，期价上方空间受阻

上周橡胶期价震荡下行，RU价格在破13000元/吨一线之后，围绕该价位窄幅波动，上周的交易逻辑仍然是基差回归逻辑，在海外原料大幅下挫带动下，期价继续寻底。

国内交易所总库存截止6月4为181264吨（+1398），期货仓单量176150吨（-310），国内总体干胶产量有限，带来近期仓单及库存同比持续处于低位。截至5月27日，青岛保税区库存继续小幅回落，但近期降幅有所缩窄，关注库存拐点的来临。

上周现货价格重心下移。据卓创了解，国内外产区新胶放量预期不断放大，而需求端则呈现走弱迹象，从而令价格缺乏上涨支撑。虽然国外产区因新冠疫情再度发酵导致对供应释放的担忧升温，但产区原料价格的持续大跌则反映出市场将更多的关注点集中在需求下滑上；现货价格多跟随盘面下调运行。青岛市场整体报盘较为活跃，但因下游及终端需求不佳，整体成交放量有限。近期现货成交有所减弱，仓库出库明显放缓。外盘市场价格重心小幅下滑，虽然目前泰国产区新胶仍未全面释放，但周内原料胶水收购价格大幅走低，而主要原因在于因东南亚疫情再度蔓延，导致终端需求受影响，听闻马来西亚部分工厂要求泰国工厂延期发船，从而造成泰国胶水价格的大幅下滑。加之国内市场刚需薄弱，轮胎厂备货意愿不强，因此周内美金船货整体呈弱势下跌运行。截至上周末，橡胶升水合成胶625元/吨（+25），近期合成胶价格持续下行带来价差逆转。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止6月4日，全钢胎企业开工率60.46%（+5.1%），半钢胎企业开工率59.98（+3.8%）。上周开工率小幅回升，受制于国内需求走弱以及海外出口受阻，回升幅度有限。

观点：上周海外原料价格在需求走弱推动下，价格大幅下行，但目前海外主产区仍处于开割初期，产量释放有限，随着上周需求端的利空反映完毕之后，原料价格的下跌或带来工厂部分补库意愿，价格或有望企稳。国内随着云南主产区迎来全面开割，产量将逐步增加，而海南胶水因浓乳价格持续回升带来的原料抢占或重现，供应端多空交织。目前国内港口库存仍延续去库，但近两周去库幅度有所放缓，主要跟下游工厂采买节奏放缓有关，后期关注库存拐点的来临。从价差结构来看，国内非标价差并没有显著缩窄，同时国内下游轮胎厂开工率持续下滑，需求的环比走弱也将对胶价产生拖累，预计胶价将呈现低位震荡走势。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：伊朗谈判推迟，美国市场基本面强劲

上周第五轮伊朗核谈未达成一致，后续谈判仍将继续，但就目前时间来看，在6月18号伊朗政府大选前希望较为渺茫，这会使得伊朗石油重返市场时间延后，市场预期伊朗石油重返市场时间从7月推迟至9月。上周布伦特原油突破70美元/桶，市场共识是伊朗谈判推迟以及欧佩克按兵不动所提振，但我们认为当前油价强势是有基本面因素支撑的，主要表现为：1、WT原油月差显著走强，且与布伦特原油的贴水收窄；2、近期柴油裂差显著走强，欧美炼厂利润显著修复；3、部分油种的实货贴水出现反弹。当然，需要注意的是，目前油市基本面偏强有较为明显的地区性特征，美国市场复苏最为强劲，其次是欧洲，而亚太反而相对偏弱。从美国的基本面来看，供给端方面，美国页岩油的增产依然缓慢，周度的EIA产量数据美国原油产量仍旧徘徊在1100万桶/日，新井产能无法弥补老井衰减的问题开始显现。而需求方面，成品油消费快速回升，截至目前美国交通拥堵指数回升至80%以上分位，基本接近疫情前的出行水平。而较为靓丽的是美国航空消费，随着旅游出行人数的增加，美国TSA机场安检人数近1个月内快速攀升，从而提振航空煤油的消费，这也是支撑近期柴油裂差反弹的重要原因。目前美国机场安检人数已经达到了疫情前人数的70%左右，航煤消费是石油总体消费复苏的最后一公里。而从美国炼厂开工率的情况来看，目前也已经恢复至约90%，从而拉动原油加工量，但值得注意的是，美国炼厂开工率的提升并没有导致成品油显著累库存，当前美国不管是原油还是成品油库存均已经回到5年历史同期水平，因此当前美国市场的基本面来自于供需两端的提振，基本面趋紧的态势有望维持，而当前美国市场的偏紧已经通过价格和出口开始传导至非美市场，我们预计未来美国原油净进口将会增加且其出口原油价格将会增加，因为本地炼厂的需求增加并开始与出口市场争夺原料，而欧洲市场将会首当其冲，而在欧佩克迟迟不愿进一步增产的背景下，未来亚太炼厂逐步复产之后，也将感受到供应偏紧的压力。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置

风险：伊核协议在6月18号前达成或疫情出现黑天鹅

铜：供需或双双回归 铜价料维持高位震荡

现货情况：

据SMM讯，6月4日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于71,030元/吨至73,775元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于-70元/吨至65元/吨之间。上周铜价格呈现回落之际，下游买盘有所回归，无论是询价还是主动补库的情况均有所增多。但持货商却也并未主动让渡升贴水以求尽快出货，仍存在挺价惜售的情况。因此现货成交虽有所回升，但程度不算十分显著。

观点：

短期：

上周国内进口矿TC价格继续回升0.42美元/吨至36.12美元/吨，矿端供应紧俏持续得到缓解，此外硫酸价格持续维持高位也使得炼厂利润尚可，并且近期精废价差逐渐拉开，废铜供应同样有逐渐增加的态势。这或许将会使得未来供应逐渐朝着相对充足的状况发展，但另一方面，倘若由于供应增加而导致价格出现回落，那么在当下仍处于消费传统旺季的情况下，下游需求也将会继续恢复，从而对于铜价产生支撑，故此目前对于铜品种而言，更大的概率是将会维持高位震荡的格局。

中长期：

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们维持铜价长线看涨的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：多外盘 空内盘 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出虚值看跌

关注点：

1. 流动性收紧的风险 2. 国内交仓情况 3. 2季度去库不及预期

PTA：6月持续去库预期，PTA加工费快速走强

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，6月平衡表持续去库，明显累库期仍待7月，TA加工费短期仍可；PX6-7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。