Iron ore: Ferrous sector fell collectively, led by iron ore futures.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the open interest of iron ore decreased. As of the close, the iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,118 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of spot, the national port spot transaction volume was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 27.2% from the previous day. Qingdao port iron ore prices fell 15-33 throughout the day, PB fine decreased by 25 to 1,400, PB block fell by 15 to 1,825, Carajas fine drop by 20 to 1,740, SSF down 27 to 1,013, and Yangdi fine stood at 1,130 with a decrease of 33.

Mysteel news: Australia and Brazil shipped a total of 25.024 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 1.295 million tons from the previous day; Australia’s total shipment was 16.877 million tons, an increase of 56 thousand tons from yesterday; of which, Australia shipped 13.910 million tons to China, an increase of 1.026 million tons from the previous day; Brazil’s total shipments amounted to 8.147 million tons, an increase of 1.239 million tons from the previous day. The total global shipment volume was 30.953 million tons, an increase of 571,000 tons from the previous day. The total arrivals in 45 ports in China was 20.503 million tons, a decrease of 2.57 million tons from the previous day; the total arrivals of the six northern ports was 9.559 million tons, a decrease of 1.095 million tons from the previous day.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs on June 7, 2021, China exported 5.271 million tons of steel products in May 2021, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%; from January to May, China’s cumulative steel exports were 30.924 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. In May, China imported 1.206 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%; from January to May, China’s cumulative steel imports were 6.097 million tons, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year. In May, China imported 89.79 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%; from January to May, China’s cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrate was 471.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%.

On the whole, on the supply side, last week’s shipment data has increased significantly, domestic ores are also actively increasing production, and iron ore supply side has not changed significantly. On the demand side, the overall market sentiment is sluggish due to the news of national restrictions on steel production. In the medium and long term, the anticipation of suppressing the raw material end by the production restriction policy still exists. Once the policy is implemented, there is a high probability that iron ore will enter a state of surplus. Coupled with the approaching off-season,this will also affect expectations. However, based on the current situation of high basis, the high valuation spot will inevitably fall. In the short term, due to policy disturbances, it is still recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutrally hold the current positions in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production exceeds expectations by a large margin.

Rubber: The price of raw materials witnessed a mix of gains and losses, and the futures prices remained weak.

On June 7, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,070 (-295) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,150 (-100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -395 yuan/ton (+145); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 125,376 (+4,381) lots, the short position was 180,239 (+7,937) lots, and the net short position was 54,863 (-3,556) lots.

On June 7, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,670 (-205) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,705 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,685 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,645 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -148 (+187) yuan/ton.

As of June 4: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 181,264 (+1,398) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 176,150 (-310) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 62.42 (-0.33), cup lump 44.5 (+0.5), latex 53.5 (0), RSS3 64.8 (+0.03).

As of June 4, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.46% (+5.1%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.98% (+3.8%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the market price of futures remained weak. Driven by weaker demand, the prices of overseas raw materials continued to fall, but they stopped falling yesterday. At present, overseas is in the early stage of delivery, and the raw materials have not yet reached the peak production stage. Domestically, because the main production area in Yunnan is about to usher in full-scale delivery, the supply is expected to increase. Short-term domestic demand has weakened compared to the previous month, and overall supply and demand have been weak. As futures prices continue to fall, the current RU non-standard spread has narrowed to less than 1,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the pressure on market hedging will gradually ease, and prices may fluctuate mainly at low levels.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk points:

1. Production increases substantially

2. Inventory accumulates substantially

3. Demand drops significantly

Crude oil: Iranian nuclear talks resumed this week, but reaching an agreement may be difficult.

The new round of Iran’s nuclear negotiations will resume on June 10, which means that there is only about one week left before the Iranian presidential election. It is very difficult to reach an agreement in such a short time window. And if it cannot be reached before the Iranian election, when the hardline leader is elected president, it will bring new uncertainty to future Iranian nuclear negotiations, which will delay the lifting of Iran’s sanctions and the return of oil to the market. This will make the oil market supply inelastic, and only OPEC can increase production substantially in the short term. Therefore, once the Iranian negotiation situation becomes clear, OPEC's tolerance ceiling for oil prices is very critical. In terms of time, the production increase plan from August will also be made at the meeting in early July at the earliest. This means that the possibility of excessive tightening in the short-term oil market will increase significantly. With the arrival of the peak travel season, it is expected that global inventories will accelerate their destocking.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement might be reached before June 18 or a black swan event appears in the epidemic.

Copper: Supply and demand may rebound together, and copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern.

Spot situation: According to SMM, there are only 5 trading days left before delivery, and the fluctuation of the inter-month spread has narrowed significantly compared with the previous week, which has affected the overall trading activity of the market. In the morning market, the inter-month spread was still fluctuating in the range of 200-220 yuan/ton. Therefore, the holders began to test the market by reporting a premium of 100-110 yuan/ton in Standard-Grade Copper. However, the instability of the market's rising trend made downstream buyers resist high premiums and were reluctant to buy. In addition, the narrowing of the inter-month basis has suppressed the arbitrage space of traders, and thus the trading. Until some holders took the initiative to adjust the price to a premium of 80-90 yuan/ton, the market transaction showed a slight recovery, and there was a low-priced source of a premium of 70 yuan/ton. High-Grade Copper’s quotation stabilized at a premium of 100-130 yuan/ton, while Guixi Copper reported a premium of 130-150 yuan/ton. However, the quotation has already exceeded the delivery price, therefore the market favors are limited. Under the price guidance of ST and other brands, the market price for Hydro-Copper reported between the price of Standard-Grade Copper and a premium of 30 yuan/ton. However, downstream consumers have difficulty accepting the premium price of Hydro-Copper, and the market did not witness a large number of transactions.

Opinion: Yesterday, market volatility was relatively limited, the US dollar fell below the 90 mark again, and copper prices fluctuated and rebounded slightly. What the market is most concerned about right now is the May CPI data for the United States that will be released this Thursday. In terms of fundamentals, the current supply-side pressure on prices may gradually appear. The rebound in TC prices and the gradual flow of copper scrap may inhibit the upward trend of copper prices. But on the other hand, since it is the peak consumption season, if the copper price drops, it will also stimulate the previously suppressed demand due to high prices. This will also support the copper price, so it is expected that the copper price will still maintain a pattern of fluctuating at high levels.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: go long positions on external market and short positions on internal market

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may intensify.

PTA: Processing fees fell after experiencing over-increasing.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the balance sheet in June continued to be de-stocked; the apparent accumulation period is still to be July, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：黑色集体沦陷 铁矿石期货领跌

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石盘面减仓下行，截至收盘铁矿2109合约收于1118元/吨，较前日下跌50.5元/吨。现货方面，全国港口现货成交量为64.5万吨，环比下降27.2%。青岛港口铁矿全天价格下跌15-33，PB粉1400跌25，PB块1825跌15，卡粉1740跌20，超特粉1013跌27，杨迪粉1130跌33。

Mysteel澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2502.4万吨，环比增加129.5万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1687.7万吨，环比增加5.6万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1391.0万吨，环比增加102.6万吨；巴西发货总量814.7万吨，环比增加123.9万吨。全球发运总量3095.3万吨，环比增加57.1万吨。中国45港到港总量2050.3万吨，环比减少257.0万吨；北方六港到港总量为955.9万吨，环比减少109.5万吨。

海关总署2021年6月7日数据显示，2021年5月我国出口钢材527.1万吨，同比增长19.8%；1-5月我国累计出口钢材3092.4万吨，同比增长23.7%。5月我国进口钢材120.6万吨，同比下降5.8%；1-5月我国累计进口钢材609.7万吨，同比增长11.6%。5月我国进口铁矿砂及其精矿8979.0万吨，同比增长3.2%；1-5月我国累计进口铁矿砂及其精矿47176.5万吨，同比增长6.0%。

整体来看， 供应端方面，上周发运数据增量明显，国产矿亦在积极增产，铁矿石供应端无明显变化；需求端来看，受钢材全国限产压产的消息影响，整体市场情绪低迷。从中长期来看，压产政策对于原料端打压的预期依旧存在，一旦政策落地，铁矿石大概率过剩，叠加淡季临近，也会对预期有所影响。但基于目前高基差的现状，高估值现货必然回落，短期由于政策端扰动，仍建议采取观望。

策略：

单边：短期中性观望

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

橡胶：原料价格涨跌互现，期价维持弱势

7号，RU主力收盘13070（-295）元/吨，混合胶报价12150元/吨（-100），主力合约基差-395元/吨（+145）；前二十主力多头持仓125376（+4381），空头持仓180239（+7937），净空持仓54863（-3556）。

7号，NR主力收盘价10670（-205）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1705（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1685美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1645（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-148（+187）元/吨。

截至6月4日：交易所总库存181264（+1398），交易所仓单176150（-310）。

原料：生胶片62.42（-0.33），杯胶44.5（+0.5），胶水53.5（0)，烟片64.8（+0.03）。

截止6月3日，国内全钢胎开工率为60.46%（+5.1%），国内半钢胎开工率为59.98%(+3.8%）。

观点：昨天期货盘面价格维持弱势，海外原料在需求转弱带动下，价格持续回落，昨天有所止跌。当前海外处于开割初期，原料尚未达到旺产阶段。国内则因为云南主产区即将迎来全面开割，供应有增加预期。短期国内需求环比走弱，供需总体偏弱。随着期价的持续回落，目前RU非标价差缩窄到1000元/吨以内，预计盘面套保压力将逐步缓解，价格或低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求明显回落等。

原油：伊核谈判本周恢复，但达成协议或困难重重

新一轮伊朗核谈判将于6月10号恢复，这意味着离伊朗总统大选仅剩约1周时间，在如此之短的时间窗口达成协议的难度非常大，而如果不能赶在伊朗大选前达成，若强硬派领导人当选总统后，对未来的伊核谈判带来新的不确定性，伊朗制裁解除和石油重返市场的时间将推迟，这会让石油市场供应缺乏弹性，短期内能够大幅增产的只有欧佩克，因此一旦伊朗谈判局势明朗化之后，欧佩克对油价的容忍上限就非常关键，而从时间上考虑，8月份往后的增产计划最快也要在7月初的会议上做出，这意味着短期油市进入到过度收紧的可能性大幅增加，随着出行旺季到来，预计全球库存将会加速去化。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置

风险：伊核协议在6月18号前达成或疫情出现黑天鹅

铜：供应与需求或一同回升 铜价预计维持震荡格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，距离交割仅剩5个交易日有余，隔月价差波动较上周明显收窄，因此影响了市场整体交投活跃度。早市隔月价差尚在200-220元/吨区间波动，持货商因此始报于平水铜升水100-110元/吨试探市场，无奈盘面飘红走高的不稳定令下游买盘对高升水嗤之以鼻难有买兴，外加隔月基差的收窄使贸易商的套利空间因此受抑，交投因此受抑，部分持货商主动调价至升水80-90元/吨后市场成交才略显回暖，盘中一度出现升水70元/吨的低价货源。好铜报价企稳于升水100-130元/吨之间，贵溪铜则报至升水130-150元/吨之间。但无奈报价已然超过交割价格，市场青睐度有限。湿法铜在ST等品牌的价格指引下，市场报于平水-升水30元/吨之间，但下游消费对湿法铜的升水报价难有接受度，市场难闻大量成交。

观点：昨日，市场波动相对有限，美元再度回落至90关口的下方，铜价则是震荡并小幅回升。市场当下最为关注的则是本周四将会公布的美国方面的5月CPI数据。而在基本面方面，当下供应端对于价格的压力或将逐渐显现，TC价格的回升以及废铜的逐渐涌出，或将使得铜价上行受到抑制，但是另一方面，当下毕竟是消费旺季，因此若铜价回落也将会激发此前由于价格高企而被抑制的需求，而这也将会对铜价形成支撑作用，因此预计铜价目前仍将维持高位震荡格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：多外盘 空内盘 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：加工费超涨回落

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，6月平衡表持续去库，明显累库期仍待7月，TA加工费短期仍可；PX6-7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。