Iron ore: The spot is improving, and the market price is closely following its trend.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the open interest of iron ore increased. As of the close, the iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot transaction volume of iron ore in main ports nationwide was 907,000 tons, down 13.5% from the previous day. The price of imported iron ore in Qingdao Port increased by 15-30 throughout the day. The current PB fines increased by 30 to 1445, PB lumps increased by 10 to 1,860, Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) increased by 15 to 1,755, SSF increased by 15 to 1,035 and Yangdi fines increased by 15 to 1,150.

China Central Television（CCTV）once again focused on iron ore. Since mid-May of this year, the price of iron ore has fluctuated sharply, dropping by nearly 20%. From the perspective of the national port transaction volume, the port spot transaction volume has fallen sharply since May. The average transaction volume last Sunday was about 886,000 tons, which was a sharp drop of about 58.8% from the May 7 high of 2.15 million tons. Previously, China severely cracked down on the chaos of foreign iron ore price increases, which caused iron ore prices to fall back in mid-May, but then it rebounded again.

On the whole, the iron ore shipping data is normal, and there is no obvious change on the iron ore supply side. In terms of inventory and news, the inventory in Northeast and North China has decreased significantly. Affected by market news, etc., iron ore prices may fluctuate in the near future. In the medium and long term, the expectation of suppressing the raw material end by the production restriction policy still exists. Once the policy is implemented, there is a high probability that iron ore will enter a state of surplus. Coupled with the approaching off-season, this will also affect expectations. However, based on the current situation of high basis, the high valuation spot will inevitably fall. In the short term, due to policy disturbances, it is still recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutrally hold the current positions in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, the demand for the thread and hot-rolled coil end is strong, and overseas pig iron production exceeds expectations by a large margin.

Rubber: Demand weakened and raw material prices continued to fall.

On June 9, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,005 (-40) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,025 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -480 yuan/ton (-60); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 124,149 (-956) lots, the short position was 174,866 (-2,661) lots, and the net short position was 50,717 (-1,705) lots.

On June 9, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,745 (+35) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,685 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,675 (-5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,645 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -224 (-37) yuan/ton.

As of June 4: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 181,264 (+1,398) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 176,150 (-310) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 62.42 (0), cup lump 44.8 (+0.1), latex 52 (-1.5), RSS3 63.81 (-0.42).

As of June 4, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 60.46% (+5.1%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.98% (+3.8%).

Opinion: The price of rubber continued to weaken yesterday. Overseas latex factories production was affected due to the epidemic, and reduced demand for rubber caused overseas prices to continue to fall. The latest port inventory announced this week continued to decline, mainly driven by the slight rebound in the downstream purchase last week and the decrease in port arrivals. But according to the latest understanding, the downstream purchases volume was not large this week. Weak domestic demand and blocked exports may make it difficult for tire factory operating rates to recover. From a later point of view, the main domestic production areas in Yunnan are about to usher in full-scale delivery, and the supply is expected to increase. Overseas will also enter the peak production season, supply is expected to rebound, domestic demand is weaker than the previous week, and supply and demand are generally weak.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk points:

1. Production increases substantially

2. Inventory accumulates substantially

3. Demand drops significantly

Crude oil: EIA crude oil inventories fell while refined oil inventories increased.

Yesterday EIA announced inventory data, among which crude oil inventories dropped sharply and refined oil inventories increased significantly. The main reason is that refinery operations have increased significantly. Last week, the U.S. refinery operations rate rose to 91%, basically returning to the pre-epidemic level. We believe that there is no need to worry too much about the large accumulation of refined oil inventories. On the one hand, in the past one month, the overall accumulation of refined oil inventories is not as good as the seasonal performance, and the overall oil inventory is still lower than the same period in 5 years; On the other hand, as the U.S. travel consumption is boosted, downstream gas stations and traders will be driven to replenish inventory. At present, the main bottlenecks of US refined oil consumption are still in two aspects: one is that jet fuel consumption has not fully recovered, and the other is that demand in Latin America is still relatively weak, which drags down refined oil exports. The future performance of the US refined oil market needs to pay attention to the recovery of these two parts.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement might be reached before June 18 or a black swan event appears in the epidemic.

Copper: China's CPI data exceeded expectations, and copper prices remained fluctuating at high levels.

On the spot side: According to SMM news, the Shanghai copper market closed higher yesterday, once again suppressing downstream buying interest, downstream inquiries have decreased, and it was even more difficult to see a large number of transactions. Today, the inter-month spread expanded again in the morning session, and some arbitrageurs became active again, making the premium to remain a same trend that the quotation was high first and then declined. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 90 yuan/ton, however no one paid any attention. After that, some holders adjusted the price to a premium of around 70-80 yuan/ton. Before 9:30, the inter-month spread was once expanded to around 300 yuan/ton, and some traders made some transactions again. After 9:30, the monthly difference fluctuated in the range of 280-220 yuan. After the second period, the inter-month spread was fluctuating mostly in the range of 230-260 yuan/ton. When the inter-month spread narrowed, arbitrageurs were eager to liquidate their positions, followed by an outflow of sources with a premium of 60 yuan/ton, then the transaction slightly improved. High-Grade Copperreported a premium of around 100-130 yuan/ton. Brands such as CCC-P did not improve due to shortage of supply. Holders continue to show a sentiment of supporting prices, but it is difficult for buyers and sellers to reach a consensus, and there are few actual transactions. In the Hydro-Copper market, Spence, Esox and other brands have stocks, but the overall price was still at the same level of the Standard-Grade Copper to a premium of 30 yuan/ton. Holders maintained a sentiment of supporting prices and were unwilling to transfer to a discount before delivery.

Opinion: The CPI data released by China yesterday recorded 1.3%, which is higher than expected and the previous value. The current supply-side pressure on prices may gradually appear. The rebound of TC prices and the gradual flow of copper scrap may suppress the upward space for copper prices. But on the other hand, since it is the peak consumption season now, if copper prices fall, it will also stimulate the previously suppressed demand due to high prices, which will also support copper prices. The recent strong crude oil prices may also support the non-ferrous metal sector, including copper, so that the copper price will not fall too sharply. It is expected that the copper will still maintain fluctuating at high levels. Tonight, we need to pay attention to the US CPI data and the results of the euro zone interest rate resolution.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: go long positions on external market and short positions on internal market

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may intensify.

PTA: Filament price cuts promoted a sharp rebound in production and sales.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the balance sheet in June continued to be de-stocked; the apparent accumulation period is still to be July, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：现货转好 盘面紧跟

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石盘面增仓放量，截至收盘铁矿2109合约收于1175元/吨，较前日上涨26元/吨。全国主港铁矿现货成交量为90.7万吨，环比下跌13.5%。青岛港进口铁矿全天价格上涨15-30，现PB粉1445涨30，PB块1860涨10，卡粉1755涨15，超特粉1035涨15，杨迪粉1150涨15。

央视再次聚焦铁矿石，今年5月中旬以来，铁矿石价格出现剧烈波动，一度下跌近20%。从全国港口成交量来看，港口现货成交量5月以来出现大幅下滑，上周日均成交量约88.6万吨，较5月7日高点的215万吨，大幅减少约58.8%。此前国家重拳打击国外铁矿石提价乱象，5月中旬铁矿价格应声回落，随后再度反弹。

整体来看，铁矿发运数据正常，铁矿石供应端无明显变化；库存及消息面来看，东北华北库存减量明显，受市场消息等影响，近期铁矿石价格或将震荡运行。从中长期来看，压产政策对于原料端打压的预期依旧存在，一旦政策落地，铁矿石大概率过剩，叠加淡季临近，也会对预期有所影响。但基于目前高基差的现状，高估值理应回落，短期由于政策端扰动，仍建议采取观望。

策略：

单边：短期中性观望

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度不及预期，成材端需求表现强劲，海外生铁产量大幅超预期等。

橡胶：需求转弱，原料价格延续回落

9号，RU主力收盘13005（-40）元/吨，混合胶报价12025元/吨（0），主力合约基差-480元/吨（-60）；前二十主力多头持仓124149（-956），空头持仓174866（-2661），净空持仓50717（-1705）。

9号，NR主力收盘价10745（+35）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1685（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1675美元/吨（-5），印尼标胶1645（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-224（-37）元/吨。

截至6月4日：交易所总库存181264（+1398），交易所仓单176150（-310）。

原料：生胶片62.42（0），杯胶44.8（+0.1），胶水52（-1.5)，烟片63.81（-0.42）。

截止6月3日，国内全钢胎开工率为60.46%（+5.1%），国内半钢胎开工率为59.98%(+3.8%）。

观点：昨天胶价延续偏弱走势，海外乳胶工厂因疫情影响生产，减少对胶水需求使得海外价格持续回落，昨天跌势仍在延续。本周公布的最新港口库存继续下降，主要是上周下游拿货小幅回升以及到港减少推动的，但据最新的了解，本周下游拿货一般。国内需求走弱以及出口受阻或使得后期轮胎厂开工率仍难以回升。后期来看，国内因云南主产区即将迎来全面开割，供应有增加预期，海外也将步入旺产季，供应预期回升，国内需求环比走弱，供需总体偏弱。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求明显回落等。

原油：EIA原油库存下降成品油库存增加

昨日EIA公布库存数据，其中原油库存大幅下降，成品油库存大幅增加，主要原因是炼厂开工大幅提升，上周美国炼厂开工率升至91%，基本恢复至疫情前水平，我们认为成品油库存大幅累库不必过度担忧，一方面是近1个月来看，整体成品油库存累库幅度不及季节性表现，而总体石油库存也仍低于5年同期，另一方面是随着美国出行消费的拉动，将会带动下游加油站和贸易商补库，当前美国成品油消费的主要瓶颈仍在于两块，一是航煤消费尚未完全恢复，二是拉美需求仍旧相对疲软从而拖累成品油出口，未来美国成品油市场表现需要关注这两部分的恢复情况。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置

风险：伊核协议在6月18号前达成或疫情出现黑天鹅

铜：中国方面CPI数据超预期 铜价依旧高位震荡

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日沪铜盘面收阳走高，再度抑制下游买兴，下游询盘都减少，更难见大量成交，今日月差早市再度扩大，部分套利商再度活跃，令升水延续高报低走之势。早市平水铜始报于升水90元/吨，无人问津，部分持货商调价至升水70-80元/吨左右，9点半前月差一度扩至300元/吨左右，部分贸易商又些许交投，9点半后，月差波动于280-220元区间，第二时段后，月差多在230-260元/吨区间，月差缩窄之时套利商急于平仓，随之出现升水60元/吨货源流出，成交略显好转。好铜报至升水100-130元/吨左右，CCC-P等品牌由于货源紧缺没有改善，持货商继续呈现挺价情绪，但买卖双方难以达成共识，少有实际成交。湿法铜市场听闻部分Spence，Esox等品牌货源，整体却依旧报于平水至升水30元/吨之间，持货商维持挺价情绪，交割前不愿调至贴水出货。

观点：昨日中国方面公布的CPI数据录得1.3%，高于预期以及前值，当下供应端对于价格的压力或将逐渐显现，TC价格的回升以及废铜的逐渐涌出，或将使得铜价上行受到抑制，但是另一方面，当下毕竟是消费旺季，因此若铜价回落也将会激发此前由于价格高企而被抑制的需求，而这也将会对铜价形成支撑作用，而近日连日走强的原油价格或许也会对于包括铜在内的有色金属板块形成一定支撑，故此使得铜价并不至于出现太过大幅的下挫，预计铜价目前仍将维持高位震荡格局。今日晚间需要关注美国CPI数据以及欧元区利率决议结果。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行大概率仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，美元预计仍将维持偏弱格局。基本面方面，CSPT小组未能敲定2021年2季度铜精矿加工费地板价，显示市场对于未来铜精矿供应或存在一定分歧，但也仍然难言宽裕，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，而接下来的旺季去库大概率会对铜价形成强有力的支撑，我们暂时维持铜价长线看涨的判断，但倘若2季度内去库不及预期，则铜价的上涨幅度或将较此前预期有所减弱。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：多外盘 空内盘 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出看跌

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：长丝降价促销，推动产销大幅回升

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，6月平衡表持续去库，明显累库期仍待7月，TA加工费短期仍可；PX6-7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。