Iron ore: The ferrous sector rose across the board, led by iron ore futures.
Affected by the news of Tangshan's production restriction again last week, iron ore futures surged back to above 1,200. As of the close of last Friday, the iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,247 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 178.5 yuan/ton, or 6.7%. In terms of spot, last Friday, Qingdao Port PB fines reported an increase of 51 to 1,505, PB lumps up by 50 to 1,900, Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) gained 50 to 1,820, SSF increased by 49 to 1,085, Yangdi fines increased by 48 to 1,208, and Platts 62% index stood at 219.3 US dollars/ton, up 4.25 US dollars/ton. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction of iron ore at the main ports last week was 984,000 tons, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous week. In general, the transaction was sluggish.
In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 25.024 million tons, an increase of 1.295 million tons from the previous week; the total shipment from Australia was 16.877 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 56 thousand tons; among them, the shipment from Australia to China was 13.910 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.026 million tons; Brazil’s total shipments were 8.147 million tons, an increase of 1.239 million tons from the previous week. The total global shipment volume was 30.953 million tons, an increase of 571,000 tons from the previous week. The overall shipment volume from overseas mines on the supply side increased slightly, and there was no significant change on the iron ore supply side.
In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 80.34%, a decrease of 0.52% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 11.33%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization was 91.69%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.20%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.66%; the profit rate of steel mills was 85.71%, a decrease of 0.43% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 8.66%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.4406 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,300 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 17,600 tons. Four blast furnaces were newly repaired this week, mainly in North China and East China. There will be a planned overhaul of a blast furnace next week. Some blast furnaces with poor water output will increase the production after they return to normal, and the output of molten iron is expected to fluctuate slightly.
In terms of inventory, Mysteel's statistics on imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports across the country was 12,367, down 168 week-on-week; the average daily port congestion volume was 298, an increased of 4. Australian iron ores decreased by 202 to 6,318, Brazilian ores increased by 1 to 367,982, trade ores decreased by 50 to 6,445. Pellets decreased by 9 to 37,228, iron ore concentrate decreased by 253 to 85,971, lump ore decreased by 11 to 174,560, coarse iron powder decreased by 12,261 to 9,389; the number of ships in port 142 increased by 12. Due to the dual impact of weather and investigations on ships caused by the epidemic, the port's unloading volume has declined; port inventory has also decreased on the basis of the increase in port dredging; the number of ships in the port has increased, and the dredging of Tangshan ports has rebounded slightly. In the continuous low-level arrival state, the inventory decline is relatively large.
On the whole, the current supply and demand of iron ore are tightly balanced, the inventory remains low and the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the price is relatively strong in the short term. In the medium and long term, the suppression of the raw material end by the policy of restricting production still exists. If the government's efforts to suppress production are moderate, the prices of thread and hot-rolled coil and iron ores will both rise; if production is severely suppressed, and there are also high-basis and high-valued spot stocks, prices will inevitably face a correction.
Unilateral: neutrally bullish in the short term
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks: the intensity of production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected, off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the worsening of the epidemic, etc.
Rubber: The supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the future price is expected to fluctuate at low levels.
Last week, the rubber futures price continued to bottom down, and the price hit a new low this year. Mainly driven by the weaker market sentiment and dragged down by the continued decline in overseas raw material prices, spot prices continued to fall.
The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of June 11 was 181,575 tons (+311), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 175,440 tons (-710). As the price of rubber continued to fall, warehouse receipts showed an outflow in the past two weeks. As of June 2, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, mainly due to the decrease in storage.
According to Zhuochuang's understanding, from the supply side, domestic and foreign production areas are ushering in the seasonal peak supply season, but the demand side is generally weak. The export market has performed poorly due to high shipping costs and the tight number of containers, tires are under pressure from high start-ups, and enterprises have a backlog of finished goods inventories. U.S. spot quotations have subsequently fallen, superimposed on the fact that downstream operations are not high, exports are restricted, and market buying is deserted, and only part of the exchange is heard. During the week, the price of raw material rubber in Thailand's production areas dropped as a whole. Dragged down by the slowdown in demand, the current overseas market due to public health incidents caused high freight rates and slow terminal demand, which led to a slowdown in raw material procurement demand, low willingness to order US dollar cargo, and a downward trend in price. As of last weekend, the premium of synthetic rubber was 375 yuan/ton (-250). Last week's continuous decline in rubber prices brought about a reversal of the spread.
In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of June 11, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 62.31% (+3.85%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 58.66 (+2.68%). The operating rate continued to pick up slightly last week, subject to weak domestic demand and hindered overseas exports, the rebound was limited.
Opinion: After the price continued to bottom out in the previous week, the RU non-standard spreads were further narrowed. Judging from the changes in warehouse receipts last week, the pressure on market arbitrage has eased. From a fundamental point of view, the main domestic production areas in Yunnan will usher in full-scale delivery, and domestic raw materials are expected to further increase. The release of overseas raw materials is also relatively normal. The problem of labor shortage last year was significantly alleviated, which is conducive to the release of production in the later peak season. Demand showed off-season characteristics, domestic demand was weaker from the previous week, and exports were constrained by container tensions. Given the weak mid-term supply and demand expectations, it is expected that rubber prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels.
Risk points: domestic supply increases sharply, demand continues to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funding might be tight.
Crude oil: The three major institutions slightly upgraded their supply growth, and OPEC increased production as scheduled.
Before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the three major institutions all issued June reports. The main changes are: 1. OPEC started to increase production as planned, and Saudi Arabia increased production by about 350,000 barrels per day; 2. The demand growth forecast basically has not changed much. The agencies predict that demand will increase by 5 to 5.5 million barrels per day this year. The impact of the Indian epidemic on global demand growth is limited; 3. Due to the release of US production data at the end of May, the three major institutions have revised upwards the US supply; 4. The three major institutions have slightly revised down Call on OPEC this year.
Demand: EIA estimates that demand growth in 2021 will be 5.41 million barrels per day, which is 10,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month. The upward revision in the United States offsets the downward revision in India. OPEC predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.95 million barrels per day, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. Instead, Indian demand is slightly revised up. The IEA predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.36 million barrels per day, which is 60,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month’s forecast. The downward revision in European demand offsets the upward revision in U.S. demand.
Non-OPEC supply: EIA expects that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 1.17 million barrels/day compared to the same period last year, which is an upward revision of 210,000 barrels/day from the previous month’s forecast; EIA expects that the total US liquid supply in 2021 will fall by 15,000 barrels/day compared to the same period last year. However, crude oil supply fell by 250,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is a smaller decline compared to last month's forecast. OPEC predicts that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 840,000 barrels/day, an increase of 130,000 barrels/day from the previous month’s forecast; OPEC expects that the annual US liquid production will increase by 40,000 barrels/day year-on-year, an upward revision from the previous month. IEA's non-OPEC supply in 2021 is expected to increase by 870,000 barrels/day from the same period last year, up 70,000 barrels/day from the previous month; IEA's supply to the United States is revised up by 120,000 barrels/day from the previous month.
OPEC production: According to EIA statistics, OPEC's production in May fell by 440,000 barrels/day to 25.46 million barrels/day, mainly because Saudi Arabia’s production increased by 330,000 barrels/day. According to OPEC's statistics, OPEC's production in May increased by 390,000 barrels/day to 25.46 million barrels/day. OPEC's overall production cut compliance rate was 125%, and the main increase in production came from Saudi Arabia. According to IEA, OPEC's output in May increased by 370,000 barrels/day to 25.43 million barrels/day. OPEC's overall compliance rate is 124%, and other countries except Saudi Arabia have seen a small increase in production.
Call on OPEC: EIA estimates COO for 2021 to be 27.68 million barrels/day, which is revised down by 210,000 barrels/day from the previous month. According to the EIA balance sheet, the difference between supply and demand in the first to fourth quarters is -1.7 million barrels/day,- 1.5 million barrels/day, 100,000 barrels/day, and -200,000 barrels/day, the balance of supply and demand has narrowed compared with last month. OPEC’s 2021 COO is estimated to be 27.64 million barrels/day, which is revised down by 10,000 barrels/day from the previous month. COO for the first to fourth quarters will be 25.40, 27.10, 28.70, and 29.40 million barrels/day. The IEA estimates COO for 2021 at 27.15 million barrels/day, which is a downward revision of 170,000 barrels/day from the previous month. The COOs for the first to fourth quarters were 26.10, 25.90, 27.60, and 29.00 million barrels/day, with little revision in each quarter.
Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil
Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement might be reached before June 18 or a black swan event appears in the epidemic.
Copper: The impact of the news of dumping reserves is temporarily limited, and copper prices maintain a volatile pattern.
Spot situation: According to SMM news, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of June 11 ranged from 70,760 yuan/ton to 71,740 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper was between from 65 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton. Last week, the overall copper price maintained a volatile pattern. However, it can be seen that the market premiums and discounts continued to show a trend of rising, showing that holders still have a certain sentiment of supporting the price. Actual spot transactions have recovered after the previous drop in copper prices. This week, we need to continue to observe whether the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream companies can continue to pick up when copper prices are in a turbulent pattern.
Short-term view: The May CPI announced by the United States last week greatly exceeded expectations again, recording an ultra-high level of 5%. This aspect will increase the market’s concern that the Fed may adjust its current monetary policy in advance. However, higher inflation levels will indeed have a relatively favorable impact on the overall non-ferrous metals including copper. In addition, news about dumping reserves broke out again last week, involving copper, aluminum, zinc and other varieties. And such reports also need continuous attention. Judging from the market reaction last week, it seems that there has not been an overly obvious response to this. Non-ferrous metals such as aluminum products even saw a more violent rise last Friday. Therefore, as far as the current situation is concerned, the overall non-ferrous sectors, including copper, will mainly maintain a shock pattern.
In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. The probability of destocking of the inventories in the next peak season will form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices. However, if the destocking in the second quarter falls short of expectations, the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.
1. Unilateral: cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: go long positions on external market and short positions on internal market
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: sell at out-of-value put options
1. The risk of tightening liquidity
2. Domestic delivery situation
3. Destocking in the second quarter fell short of expectations
PTA: The processing fee has fallen again, and the space for re-compression may be limited.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the balance sheet in June continued to be de-stocked; the apparent accumulation period is still to be July, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.
Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.
Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.
上周受唐山再次停限产消息影响， 铁矿石期货大涨重回1200上方。截至上周五收盘，铁矿2109合约收于1247元/吨，周环比涨178.5元/吨，周涨幅6.7% 。现货方面，上周五青岛港PB粉报1505涨51， PB块1900涨50，卡粉1820涨50，超特粉报1085涨49，杨迪粉1208涨48， 普氏62%指数报219.3美元/吨，涨4.25美元/吨。成交方面，上周铁矿石主港日均成交98.4万吨，环比下降8.5%，成交一般。
库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12367环比降168; 日均疏港量298增4， 分量方面，澳矿6318降202，巴西矿367982增1，贸易矿6445降50，球团37228降9，精粉85971降253，块矿174560降11，粗粉9389降12261; 在港船舶数142增12条。由于受到天气以及疫情查船的双重影响，港口卸货量下降，在疏港增量的基础上港口库存也有减量，在港船舶数量增加，唐山两港疏港小幅回升，在持续的低水平到港状态下，库存降幅相对较大。
端午假日前三大机构均发布了6月报，主要的变化有：1、OPEC开始按照计划如期增产，沙特增产约35万桶/日；2、需求增长预测基本变化不大，各机构预测今年需求同比增长在500至550万桶/日，印度疫情对全球需求增长的冲击有限；3、由于5月底美国产量数据的发布，三大机构对美国供应有所上修；4、三大机构对于今年Call on OPEC小幅下修
Call on OPEC：EIA对2021年COO预估为2768万桶/日，较上月下修21万桶/日，根据EIA平衡表，一到四季度供需差值为-170万桶/日、-150万桶/日、10万桶/日、-20万桶/日，供需平衡较上月缺口有所收窄。OPEC对2021年COO预估为2764万桶/日，较上月下修1万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2540、2710、2870、2940万桶/日。IEA对2021年COO预估为2715万桶/日，较上月下修17万桶/日，一到四季度COO为2610、2590、2760、2900万桶/日，各季度修正幅度不大。
策略：1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：多外盘 空内盘 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：卖出虚值看跌
关注点：1. 流动性收紧的风险 2. 国内交仓情况 3. 2季度去库不及预期