Iron ore: The production restriction policy has repeatedly disturbed the market, and iron ore fell first, then rose, and then fell again.

Last week, market rumors: the national production restriction policy is expected to be implemented, and in the second half of the week it is rumored that Tangshan production restriction will be relaxed. Although there was no official document, it was fully traded by the market. Iron ore futures fell first and then rose again, and finally closed above 1,200 points. In terms of futures, as of the close of last Friday, the most-active iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,203 points, down 44 points on a week-on-week basis. In terms of spot, last Friday, the lowest price Qingdao PB fines at Qingdao, Beijing and Cao reported at 1,502, a weekly increase of 48; JMBF reported 1,327, a weekly increase of 32, and Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) reported 1,747, a weekly increase of 74; The Platts 62% index reported US$221/ton, an increase of US$4/ton on a weekly basis. In terms of basis, the PB fines 09 contract reported 439, a weekly increase of 7 week-on-week; in terms of transactions, last week’s iron ore main port had an average weekly turnover of 1.11 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 13. This set a new high in recent weeks and is at a historical median level.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel statistics, Australia and Brazil shipped 26.135 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 1.111 million tons from the previous week; Australia’s total shipments were 18.499 million tons, an increase of 1.622 million tons from the previous week; of which, Australia sent 15.506 million tons to China, a week-on-week increase of 1.596 million tons; the total shipment from Brazil was 7.636 million tons, a decrease of 511,000 tons from the previous week. The total global shipment volume was 32.059 million tons, an increase of 1.106 million tons from the previous week. The overall shipment volume from overseas on the supply side increased slightly, and there was no significant change on the iron ore supply side.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 80.21%, a decrease of 0.13% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 11.33%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.67%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.02%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.98%; the profit rate of steel mills was 86.15%, an increase of 0.43% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 9.09%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.4401 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 500 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 26,200 tons. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 61.19%, a decrease of 0.55% week-on-week; a capacity utilization rate of 73.26%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.86%; a utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 79.76%, down 6.42% from the same period last year; the profit rate of steel mills was 76.69%, an increase of 0.61% week-on-week. The national production restriction policy has not been implemented. Although the current operating rate has contracted, it is still at a high level, which will form a strong support for iron ore prices in the short term.

In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 12,088.75, a week-on-week decrease of 278.42; the average daily port congestion volume of 300.53, a week-on-week increase of 2.24. Australian iron ore reported 6,211.71, a week-on-week decrease of 106.66; Brazil figure reported 3,483.65, a week-on-week decrease of 196.17; trade ore reported 6,328.60, a week-on-week decrease of 116.4; pellets reported 376.53, an increase of 4.25 week-on-week; iron ore concentrates reported 878.78, an increase of 19.07 week-on-week; lumps reported 1,727.66, a week-on-week decrease of 17.94; coarse fines reported 9,105.78, a week-on-week decrease of 283.8; the number of ships in port reported 145, a month-on-month increase of 3. Although it is in the off-season, under the strong pull up of high operating rate and high output of steel, iron ore inventory has not yet accumulated, and it has dropped 2.78 million tons on a weekly basis, which will provide favorable support for iron ore prices in the later period.

On the whole, because the production restriction policy has not yet been implemented, the supply of raw materials has continued to grow, and consumption has risen to a high level, forming a good trend of rising iron ore prices. In the medium and long term, the trend of iron ore will depend more on the policy direction. Production restriction policies still suppress the raw materials. If the government restricts production at a moderate level, the prices of thread and hot-rolled coil and iron ores will both rise; if the government severely restricts production, coupled with high basis and high valuation of the spot, the market price will inevitably face a correction. Before the production restriction policy is actually implemented, iron ore prices will remain strong. The future price of iron ore will depend on the intensity and implementation time of industrial policies.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: cautiously bullish in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity and policy orientation of the production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end, the off-season demand performance at the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the worsening of the epidemic, etc.

Rubber: The demand is weak, and the price rebound is limited.

The price of rubber futures fluctuated within a narrow range last week. The price rebounded slightly after RU hit 12,500 yuan/ton. Rubber's overall price rebound is weak due to its weak fundamentals.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of June 18 was 182,604 tons (+1029), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 174,630 tons (-810). As the price of rubber continues to fall, warehouse receipts have been flowing out in the past two weeks. As of June 8, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, which was still caused by the decrease in the inventory.

Last week, the spot price was weak and maintained fluctuating, and the price center did not change much from the previous week. According to Zhuo Chuang's understanding, although the new release of rubber volume is not smooth due to the rainy season in the domestic production areas, the demand side performance is weak, and the tire export market is under pressure with high freight rates and tight containers, resulting in greater pressure on the company's finished product inventory. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the overall performance of market trading is deserted due to the lack of profitability, and the terminal end only purchase for just-need. U.S. dollar spot quotations followed this decline. Due to the weak market, the downstream buying and purchasing intentions were not strong, resulting in sluggish spot trading and only sporadic negotiations. The main reason for the decline in US dollar cargo during the week was the release of raw materials from the supply side of foreign production areas, while domestic order demand was weak, and the supply-demand mismatch resulted in a bearish situation, which made US dollar cargo transactions sluggish. As of last weekend, the rubber premium was 150 yuan/ton (-225) for synthetic rubber. The rebound in the price of SBR last week narrowed the spread.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of June 17, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 56.92% (-5.39%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 52.75 (-5.91%). The operating rate dropped again last week, mainly due to the overhaul of some manufacturers' installations and obstructed exports.

Opinion: Last week, the price of Shanghai rubber continued to hit new lows, and the non-standard spreads also narrowed, but the narrowing range was limited, or it may reflect the still weak spot prices. Due to the maintenance of some manufacturers and the obstruction of exports, the operating rate of tire factories continued to decline last week, bringing expectations of further weakening in demand for raw materials. The exchange warehouse receipts continued to decline last week, and the pressure on market arbitrage has eased, which may bring stability to the market in the short term. From the perspective of fundamentals in the later period, domestic production will gradually pick up, and major overseas production areas will also enter the peak season. In the short term, attention may be paid to the possibility of slowing imports caused by the continuous increase in ocean freight. Domestic imports have dropped significantly in May, and if it continues to affect the reduction of domestic port stocks in the later period, it may bring about short-term price fluctuations. Demand is in the off-season, domestic demand has weakened from the previous week. The expectation of a decline in exports due to container tensions is increasing. Given the weak mid-term supply and demand expectations, it is expected that rubber prices will continue to fluctuate and weaken. Short-term prices are expected to stabilize with the non-standard spreads being small.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk points: Domestic supply increases sharply, demand continues to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funding might be tight.

Crude oil: The Iranian nuclear talks returned to a turning point, and the oil price went back at a high level.

Last week, there was a slight correction in oil prices from a high level. The main driving force was two points: On the one hand, the Iranian nuclear talks have reversed again, and both the United States and Iran have said that the talks have made progress. But so far, the agreement has not been reached, the Iranian government has changed, and the hardline leader Lacey has been elected, which has brought uncertainty to subsequent negotiations. On the other hand, the overall decision-making of the Fed's meeting on interest rates is biased towards hawks. Given the upward pressure on inflation, monetary policy may tighten in the future, and macro sentiment will suppress the price trend of risky assets. However, we believe that the current increase in crude oil prices is still supported by strong fundamental logic. This is mainly reflected in the recent strengthening of the inter-month spread of crude oil and of the physical discounts, and the trend that supply growth has not kept up with demand recovery continues.

We believe that in addition to the Iran nuclear talks, the recent focus of attention that affects the market is focused on the following two points: 1. Saudi Arabia's production increase plan after August; 2. China's second batch of crude oil import quotas.

First discuss the Saudi side. Since no news or signals were disclosed at the June 1 meeting, the market is currently speculating on Saudi or OPEC’s next production increase plan. Because the current plan is only in August, this also means that OPEC must give answers to the production limit plan after August at the July meeting, and the magnitude and pace of the increase in production are the focus of the current market. At present, OECD oil inventories are already below the 5-year average level. Therefore, OPEC has a very good reason for increasing production, but the key to the problem is how to strike a balance between price and output, in other words, OPEC’s upper limit of tolerance for current oil prices. It is also worth noting that there are not many countries in the current production-limitation alliance that can substantially increase production. They are mainly concentrated in the three countries of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. How to balance their differences is also worth paying attention to. At present, OPEC has nearly 5.8 million barrels of surplus production capacity on hand, which still has a huge influence on future oil prices.

The second is China's crude oil import quota. Compared with the issuance time in April last year, the issuance of the second batch of import quotas this year was significantly later. And according to foreign media sources, due to the recent inspections by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce on issues related to import quotas for local refining and reselling, the second batch of crude oil import quotas is likely to shrink, or some quotas may be delayed. Recently, due to the tight crude oil quota and the addition of a consumption tax on diluted bitumen, some refineries have begun to increase the import of straight-run fuel oil. However, we believe that even the reduction of quotas will not significantly curb the growth of China's crude oil imports. On the one hand, the profits of domestic refineries are relatively good, especially after the implementation of the consumption tax policy, the price of refined oil has been pushed up. The refinery has a strong willingness to start construction after the spring inspection, and the interest in purchasing crude oil has also increased significantly in the near future. We noticed that Rongsheng continued to issue tenders on the spot market to purchase large quantities of crude oil. On the other hand, although the pace of importing crude oil by private refineries will be affected by the pace and quantity of import quotas, the main business is excluded, and the consumption tax policy is more favorable to the main refineries. Therefore, the interest of PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC to import crude oil will be significantly stronger than that of private refineries. Moreover, Shenghong plans to start production in August this year, and the rigid demand for large refining and chemical projects to start production will also support the recovery of China's crude oil imports. We believe that China's crude oil imports in May have fallen to the lowest point of the year, and imports will continue to grow in the future.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil

Risk: The Iran nuclear agreement reaches quickly or a black swan event appears in the epidemic.

Copper: The US dollar strengthened sharply, and copper prices were under pressure.

Spot situation:

According to SMM news, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of June 18 was between 67,780 yuan/ton and 70,760 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper was between 40 yuan/ton and 155 yuan/ton. Last week, copper prices fell sharply, but the market premium and discount quotations continued to rise. After the price fell, spot transactions resumed. Since then, copper prices may fall into a shock pattern.

Opinion:

Short term:

Last week, on the macro front, the Fed announced the results of its June meeting on interest rates. Although its hawkish views are not very strong, the Fed officials have shown more-than-expected optimism about the future economic outlook, which has made the U.S. dollar index strengthened sharply, while copper and other products with relatively strong financial attributes have been severely suppressed. In addition, last week's news about the US tapering finally landed, which also had a certain inhibitory effect on copper prices. Therefore, the current short-term operation is mainly based on a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the copper price will maintain a volatile pattern between 66,000 and 70,000 yuan/ton for a period of time.

Medium and long term:

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The risk of tightening liquidity

2. Domestic delivery situation

3. Destocking in the second quarter fell short of expectations.

PTA: TA processing fees are still relatively strong, and we are concerned about the progress of new installations.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the balance sheet in June continued to be de-stocked; the apparent accumulation period is still to be July, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿：压产政策反复扰动 铁矿石先抑后扬再收阴

上周，市场传闻：全国性压产政策有望实施，下半周又传唐山限产将会放松，虽没有正式的红头文件，但却被市场充分交易，铁矿石期货先抑后扬再收阴，最终收在了1200点上方。期货方面，截至上周五收盘，铁矿主力2109合约收于1203点，周环比下跌44点。现货方面，上周五日青京曹四港最低价青岛PB粉报1502周度环比上涨48，金布巴1327周度环比上涨32， 卡粉1747周度环比上涨74；普氏62%指数报221美元/吨，周度环比上涨4美元/吨。基差方面，PB粉09合约439，周度环比上涨7；成交方面，上周铁矿石主港周均成交111万吨，环比上涨13，创出近几周新高，处于历史中位水平。

供应方面，Mysteel澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2613.5万吨，环比增加111.1万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1849.9万吨，环比增加162.2万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1550.6万吨，环比增加159.6万吨；巴西发货总量763.6万吨，环比减少51.1万吨。全球发运总量3205.9万吨，环比增加110.6万吨。供应端外矿整体发运量略有增加，铁矿石供应端无明显变化。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率80.21%，环比上周下降0.13%，同比去年下降11.33%；高炉炼铁产能利用率91.67%，环比下降0.02%，同比下降0.98%；钢厂盈利率86.15%，环比增加0.43%，同比下降9.09%；日均铁水产量244.01万吨，环比下降0.05万吨，同比下降2.62万吨。调研163家钢厂高炉开工率61.19%，环比下降0.55%，产能利用率73.26%，环比下降0.86%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为79.76%，较去年同期降6.42%，钢厂盈利率76.69%，环比增加0.61%。全国性的压产政策并未落地，目前的开工率虽有收缩，但仍处高位，短期内对铁矿石价格形成强有力的支撑。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12088.75，环比降278.42；日均疏港量300.53增2.24。分量方面，澳矿6211.71降106.66，巴西矿3483.65降196.17，贸易矿6328.60降116.4，球团376.53增4.25，精粉878.78增19.07，块矿1727.66降17.94，粗粉9105.78降283.8；在港船舶数145增3条。虽处淡季，在钢材高开工率、高产量的强势拉升下，铁矿库存仍未出现累库，周度环比反降278万吨，对后期铁矿石价格形成有利支撑。

整体来看，由于压产迟迟不落地，原料自身处于不断增长，且消费水平已经拉升至高位，形成了矿价上涨的良好态势。从中长期来看，铁矿石走势，将更多取决于政策方向，压产政策对于原料端的打压依旧存在，如果政府压产力度适中，则材矿价格双涨；如果重度压产，叠加高基差高估值的现货，价格必然面临回调。在压产未实质性落地之前，矿价仍将维持强势，后期取决于产业政策的力度和实施时间。

策略：

单边 ：短期谨慎偏多

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向，成材端淡季需求表现，疫情加重等。

橡胶：需求示弱，期价反弹有限

上周橡胶期价窄幅波动，RU触及12500元/吨一线后价格小幅反弹，总体因自身基本面偏弱，价格反弹乏力。

国内交易所总库存截止6月18为182604吨（+1029），期货仓单量174630吨（-810），随着胶价的持续回落，近两周仓单呈现流出状态。截至6月8日，青岛保税区库存继续小幅回落，依然是入库减少导致的。

上周现货价格弱势震荡为主，价格重心较前一周变化不大。据卓创了解，虽因国内产区雨季导致新胶放量不畅；但需求端表现疲软，轮胎出口市场承压高运价及集装箱紧张，导致企业成品库存面临较大压力。因此在供需基本面来看缺乏利多驱动下市场交投整体表现冷清，终端仅刚需采购为主。美金现货报价跟之走低，因行情疲弱，下游买采意愿不强，因此现货交投清淡，仅闻零星商谈。周内美金船货下滑主要原因在于国外产区供应端原料释放，而国内订单需求表现薄弱，供需错配导致的偏空局面，从而令美金船货成交寡淡。截至上周末，橡胶升水合成胶150元/吨（-225），上周丁苯价格回升带来价差的缩窄。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止6月17日，全钢胎企业开工率56.92%（-5.39%），半钢胎企业开工率52.75（-5.91%）。上周开工率重新回落，主要是部分厂家装置检修以及出口受阻带来的下降。

观点：上周沪胶继续创新低，非标价差也随着收窄，但收窄幅度有限，或反映现货价格仍偏弱。在部分厂家检修以及出口受阻下，上周轮胎厂开工率继续下降，带来原料需求的进一步走弱预期。上周交易所仓单继续下降，盘面套利压力有所减缓，短期或带来盘面的企稳。后期基本面来看，国内产量将逐步回升，海外主产区也步入旺季，短期节奏上或须关注海运费持续上涨带来的进口量放缓的可能，5月国内进口量已经明显下降，后期如果继续影响国内港口库存的减少，则可能带来短期价格的波动。需求呈现淡季特征，国内需求环比走弱，出口则受制于集装箱紧张而下滑的预期在增强。中期供需预期偏弱下，预计胶价仍将呈现震荡偏弱走势，短期价格则在非标价差偏小下，有望企稳。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：伊核谈判再现转折，油价高位回调

上周油价出现高位小幅回调，主要的驱动在于两点，一方面是伊核谈判再次出现反转，美伊双方均称谈判取得进展，但截至目前为止，协议仍尚未达成，且伊朗政府换届，强硬派领导人莱西当选，为后续的谈判带来不确定性；另一方面是美联储议息会议整体偏向鹰派，基于通胀上行压力未来货币政策或将收紧，宏观情绪上打压风险资产价格走势。但我们认为当前原油价格的上涨依然有较强的基本面逻辑支撑，主要体现为近期原油月差与实货贴水均出现走强，供给增长跟不上需求复苏的趋势依然延续，我们认为除了伊朗核谈之外，近期影响市场的关注焦点集中在以下两点：1、沙特8月后的增产计划；2、中国第二批原油进口配额的发放。首先是沙特方面，由于在6月1号的会议上没有透露任何消息和信号，目前市场都在猜测沙特或者欧佩克下一步的增产计划，因为当前的计划只到8月份，这也意味着欧佩克必须在7月份的会议上对8月往后的限产计划给出答案，增产的幅度和节奏都是当前市场的关注焦点，目前OECD石油库存已经处于5年均值水平以下，因此欧佩克增产理由非常充分，但问题的关键是如何在价格与产量之间取得平衡，换句话说是欧佩克对于当前油价的容忍上限，另外值得注意的是，当前限产联盟中能够大幅增产的国家并不多，主要集中在沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克这三个国家，他们之间的分歧如何平衡也值得关注，当前欧佩克手上有近580万桶/日的剩余产能，对于未来油价的影响仍有非常巨大的影响力。其次是中国的原油进口配额，相比去年4月份的下发时间，今年第二批进口配额的发放时间明显较晚，且根据外媒的消息看，由于发改委以及商务部近期对地炼倒卖进口配额相关问题的核查，第二批原油进口配额有较大可能出现缩水，或者部分配额延迟下发的情况。近期由于原油配额紧张叠加稀释沥青加征消费税，部分地炼已经开始加大了直馏燃料油的进口。但我们认为即便是配额减少并不能显著抑制中国原油进口量的增长，一方面是当前国内炼厂的利润较好，尤其是在消费税政策执行后，成品油价格推涨，炼厂在春检后开工意愿较强，近期采购原油的兴趣也明显增加，我们注意到荣盛持续再现货市场发布招标大量采购原油；另一方面虽然民营炼厂进口原油节奏会受到进口配额发放节奏和数量的影响，但主营排除在外，且消费税政策更加利好主营炼厂，因此三桶油进口原油的兴趣将会显著强于民营炼厂；再者是盛虹计划在今年8月份投产开工，大炼化项目陆续投产的刚需也将支撑中国原油进口恢复，因为我们认为5月份的中国原油进口量已经回落至全年低点，未来进口仍将恢复增长。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情出现黑天鹅

铜：美元大幅走强 铜价承压明显

现货情况：

据SMM讯，6月18日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于67,780元/吨至70,760元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于40元/吨至155元/吨之间。上周铜价大幅回落，但市场升贴水报价也持续呈现走高态势，在价格回落之后，现货成交有所恢复。此后铜价或陷入震荡格局之中。

观点：

短期：

上周，在宏观方面，美联储公布6月议息会议结果，虽说其鹰派观点并不十分强硬，但由于联储官员对于未来经济展望显现出了超过预期的乐观态度，因此使得美元指数大幅走强，而铜这类金融属性相对偏强的品种则是受到严重打压，加之上周关于国储抛储的消息也最终落地，同样对铜价有一定抑制作用，因此当下在操作上短期暂时以偏观望的态度为主，预计此后铜价将会于66,000至70,000元/吨间维系一段时间的震荡格局。

中长期：

宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 流动性收紧的风险 2. 国内交仓情况 3. 2季度去库不及预期

PTA：TA加工费仍偏强，关注新装置投产进度

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，6月平衡表持续去库，明显累库期仍待7月，TA加工费短期仍可；PX6-7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性