Iron Ore: Market sentiment eased, and the spot price stopped falling and stabilized.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore fluctuated in the morning session and rebounded slightly during the afternoon hours. The closing price of the iron ore 2109 contract was 1,139 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton, or 1.6%, from the closing price of the previous trading day, with the open interest losing 16,159 lots. In terms of spot, the spot market price stopped falling and stabilized yesterday, and some ports rose slightly in the afternoon. The PB fines of Qingdao Port reported 1,465 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton, and the PB fines of Tianjin Port stood at 1,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. In terms of transactions, steel mills focused on just-needed purchases, traders were more willing to support price, and overall transactions were sluggish.

In terms of supply, judging from the latest iron ore shipment data, the global iron ore shipment volume and 45 ports of iron ore arrival volume both declined last week, and the global iron ore supply is still relatively stable. On the demand side, due to the off-season of steel consumption and local production restrictions, steel mills have increased their production shutdowns for maintenance. At the same time, the profits of long-process steel mills are now near the cost line, which has restrained iron ore prices and the demand for iron ore is expected to weaken.

Overall, affected by the recent macroeconomic policies, market sentiment has been in a state of hesitation, speculation has begun to cool down, and iron ore prices have also fluctuated widely. Downstream steel consumption has entered the seasonal off-season, coupled with the local production restriction policies, there is a high probability that subsequent domestic consumption will continue to shrink. On the other hand, the overseas epidemic situation has improved, the economy has recovered, and various economic indicators have continued to improve, prompting overseas iron ore consumption to remain relatively strong. In the medium and long term, the trend of iron ore prices is mainly affected by the production policy. If subsequent production restriction policies in various regions are implemented, iron ore demand will gradually weaken, and iron ore is likely to enter a state of surplus. However, before the production restriction policy is implemented, it is expected that the price of ore is still more likely to operate on the strong side. In short, there are more uncertainties on the policy side at present. We recommend that investors maintain a neutral wait-and-see attitude in the short term, and pay more attention to policy changes in the future.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: hold a neutral wait-and-see attitude in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity and policy orientation of the production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end, the off-season demand performance at the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the worsening of the epidemic, etc.

Rubber: The downward trend of port inventory continues.

On June 22, the most-active RU contract closed at 12,670 (+65) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,875 (+25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -320 yuan/ton (-165); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 120,877 (+1,734) lots, the short position was 168,443 (-553) lots, and the net short position was 47,566 (-2,287) lots.

On June 22, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,305 (+15) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,655 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,645 (+10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -170 (+94) yuan/ton.

As of June 11: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 182,604 (+1,029) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,630 (-810) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 56.56 (-0.11), cup lump 42.3 (+0.1), latex 49.5 (0), RSS3 59 (-0.11).

As of June 11, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 56.92% (-5.39%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.75 (-5.91%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the price of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas continued to be weak, and the recent continuous decline in raw material prices has increased the drag on the cost of rubber. The latest domestic port inventory continues to decline, mainly due to the small arrivals. Judging from the production data of Thailand and other countries, the cumulative data rebounded year-on-year, but the import volume has slowed down. This may be mainly due to the delayed import volume caused by the increase in ocean freight prices. The increase in the supply side and the weakening of demand from the previous week have made the supply and demand pattern of rubber loose, and the non-standard spread has continued to narrow. However, the recent contraction has slowed down, which may confirm the weakness of spot prices. Although the absolute price is at a low level, it is expected that rubber prices will continue to be weak due to weak supply and demand drivers.

Strategy: cautiously bearish

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: WTI Cushing's premium rose significantly.

Yesterday API announced inventory data, among which US crude oil inventories continued to fall sharply. It is worth noting that the recent inter-month spread of WTI crude oil has been very strong, and the nearest spread has risen to more than $1 per barrel. And yesterday was the last trading day of the WTI July contract, such increase in the inter-month spread is equivalent to a significant spot premium. At the same time, the spread of WTI cushing to other regions is also significantly higher, regardless of the spread to Midland, where it is produced, or the spread to MEH in the U.S. Gulf. This shows that the current market is increasingly worried that Cushing's local inventory destocking may cause Cushing to reach the lower limit of reserves soon in the future, which will cause long positions to increase their open interest significantly, and the current possibility is obviously increasing.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil

Risk: The Iran nuclear agreement reaches quickly or a black swan event appears in the epidemic.

Copper: The tapering volume have been set, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the Shanghai copper market rebounded slightly yesterday. After experiencing long-term losses, the Shanghai-London copper ratio has been restored to 7.32 in recent days, and the import loss has narrowed significantly. Yesterday's active Yangshan copper market caused domestic trade holders to rush to sell for spot exchange when the premium showed signs of rapid decline. In addition, coupled with the rebound of the market price above 67,000 yuan/ton, the downstream buying is hard to see a boost, the market trading has returned to a wait-and-see attitude, and the quotation has been panicked to plummet. Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 110 yuan/ton to test the market sentiment, but few downstream receivers accepted the quotation; the holders quickly started a price reduction trend, and soon the quotation fell within the premium of 100 yuan/ton, and the quotation at the end of the first period has been around a premium of 60-70 yuan/ton. After the second period, the urgency of the holders to dump the goods has become clear. The premium of 50-60 yuan/ton has become the normal range. In the late trading, there was even a source of premium of 40 yuan/ton that had flowed out. High-Grade Copper continues to seize and squeeze the Standard-Grade Coppermarket yesterday. With the continuous outflow of Guixi-Copper warehouse receipts, the premium has been reduced since the morning market, from a premium of 120 yuan/ton to 60-70 yuan/ton in the morning market. Although Hydro-Copper follows the general market trend, the actual reduction rate is not as high as that of Standard-Grade Copper. The premium is 30-40 yuan/ton in the morning market and reported to the near the level of Standard-Grade Copper. Only a few brands such as BMK can offer a discount of 10 yuan/ton. However, the price differences between buyers and sellers still exist, and the overall trading activity is still not as good as that of Standard-Grade Copper.

Opinion: Yesterday, the specific quantity of tapering has been given, and copper varieties will taper 20,000 tons of reserves from July 5th to 6th. However, such a quantity is actually very limited, so copper prices have stabilized and rebounded. In addition, the Fed Chairman Powell's speech early this morning did not show too many hawkish views, and was even interpreted as relatively dovish by the market. Therefore, the US dollar index maintains a weak pattern, and these factors are conducive to the continued volatility and recovery of copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to be dominated by shocks in the near future.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: In July, Yisheng Hengli continued to reduce contract volume, and PTA processing fees rose rapidly.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the accumulating rate in July is relatively controllable, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿：市场情绪缓解，现货止跌企稳

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿早盘震荡调整，午后小幅回升。铁矿2109合约收盘价为1139元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨18元/吨，涨幅1.6%，日减仓16159手。现货方面，昨日现货市场价格止跌企稳，午后部分港口小幅上涨，青岛港PB粉报价1465元/吨，上涨7元/吨，天津港PB粉报价1470元/吨，上涨5元/吨。成交方面，钢厂以刚需采购为主，贸易商挺价意愿较强，整体成交一般。

供应方面，从最新的铁矿发运数据来看，上周全球铁矿发运量和45港铁矿到港量都有所下滑，全球铁矿供应仍较为平稳。需求方面，钢材进入消费淡季叠加各地限产政策，钢厂停产检修增多，加之目前长流程钢厂利润已在成本线附近，对铁矿价格有所抑制，铁矿需求预期转弱。

总体来看，近期受宏观政策影响，市场情绪反复，投机开始降温，铁矿价格也呈现宽幅震荡。下游钢材消费已进入季节性淡季，叠加各地限产政策影响，后续国内消费大概率持续缩减。而海外疫情好转，经济复苏明显，各项经济指标持续向好，海外铁矿消费仍较为强劲。长期来看，铁矿价格的走势主要受压产政策的影响，若后续各地区的压产政策落地，则铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态，但在压产政策未落地之前，预计矿价仍有较大可能偏强运行。目前，政策端的不确定性较多，短期维持中性观望，后续需更多关注政策层面变动。

单边 ：短期中性观望

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向，成材端淡季需求表现，疫情加重等。

橡胶：港口库存下降趋势延续

22号，RU主力收盘12670（+65）元/吨，混合胶报价11875元/吨（+25），主力合约基差-320元/吨（-165）；前二十主力多头持仓120877（+1734），空头持仓168443（-553），净空持仓47566（-2287）。

22号，NR主力收盘价10305（+15）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1655（+5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1645美元/吨（+10），印尼标胶1605（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-170（+94）元/吨。

截至6月18日：交易所总库存182604（+1029），交易所仓单174630（-810）。

原料：生胶片56.56（-0.11），杯胶42.3（+0.1），胶水49.5（0），烟片59（-0.11）。

截止6月17日，国内全钢胎开工率为56.92%（-5.39%），国内半钢胎开工率为52.75%(-5.91%）。

观点：昨天泰国主产区原料价格延续弱势，近期原料价格的持续回落使得橡胶成本端拖累加大。最新国内港口库存延续下降，主要因到港量少。从泰国等国的产量数据来看，累计同比回升，但进口量有所放缓，或主要受海运费价格上涨的影响带来进口量后延。供应端的增加以及需求环比走弱使得橡胶供需格局宽松，非标价差继续缩小，但近期收缩幅度放缓，或侧面印证现货价格疲弱。尽管绝对价格低位，但供需驱动偏弱，预计胶价将延续偏弱格局。

策略：谨慎偏空

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：WTI库欣溢价显著走高

昨日API公布库存数据，其中美国原油库存继续大幅下降，值得注意的是，近期WTI原油月差走势非常强劲，近次月价差已经升至1美元/桶以上，且昨天是WTI7月合约的最后交易日，相当于出现了显著的现货溢价，与此同时，WTI cushing对其他地区的价差也明显走高，不管对产地米德兰的价差还是对美湾MEH的价差，这显示目前市场越来越担心库欣当地过快的库存去化可能导致未来库欣将很快达到储量下限，从而导致多头挤仓，当前的可能性正在明显增加。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情出现黑天鹅

铜：抛储量已定 铜价企稳反弹

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日沪铜盘面小幅反弹，沪伦比值在经历长期亏损的情况下，在近日有所修复至7.32，进口亏损明显收窄，昨日洋山铜市场出现难得的活跃，导致内贸持货商在升水出现快降迹象中急于甩货换现，外加盘面重新反弹于67000元/吨上方，下游买兴难见提振，市场交投重新归于观望，报价出现恐慌性急坠。平水铜始报于升水110元/吨试探市场情绪，下游接货者寥寥，持货商快速展开降价态势，很快报价落于升水100元/吨以内，第一时段尾盘报价已在升水60-70元/吨附近，第二时段后，持货商甩货之急迫已昭然若揭，升水50-60元/吨已成常态区间，尾盘甚至已有升水40元/吨的货源流出。好铜继续昨日的抢占挤压平水铜市场的态势，在贵溪铜仓单的持续流出下，升水自早市起率先调降，从早市升水120元/吨滑坡式降至升水60-70元/吨。湿法铜虽然随波逐流，但实际调降幅度不及平水铜，从早市升水30-40元/吨报至平水附近，仅有个别品牌如BMK可有贴水10元/吨报价，但买卖双方对价格分歧仍存，整体交投活跃度依旧不及平水铜。

观点：昨日，对于抛储的具体数量目前已经给出，铜品种将于7月5至6日抛储两万吨。但这样的数量实则十分有限，故此铜价出现企稳反弹的情况。此外，今日凌晨美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也并未彰显太多的鹰派观点，甚至被市场解读为相对鸽派，故此美元指数维持偏弱格局，而这些因素都有利于铜价的持续震荡回升。预计近期铜价仍将以震荡格局为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：7月逸盛恒力继续削减合约量，PTA加工费快速抬升

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，7月累库速率相对可控，TA加工费短期仍可；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性