Iron ore: The policy is not yet clear, and the iron ore fluctuates upward.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore fluctuated upward in the morning session, and the market showed a v-shaped trend during the afternoon hours affected by the news. The closing price of the iron ore 2109 contract was 1,173 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton, or 2.99%, from the closing price of the previous trading day, with open interest increasing 6,838 lots. In terms of spot, the spot market generally rose yesterday. The spot price of imported iron ore of ports increased by 5-23 yuan/ton throughout the day, the PB fines of Qingdao Port reported 1,483 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton, and the PB fines of Tianjin Port stood at 1,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, recently, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Price Supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration for Market Supervision sent a number of joint working groups to relevant provinces and cities to investigate the issue of maintaining supply and stabilizing prices for commodities. Recently, investigations into the iron ore spot market transactions and the supply and stability of commodities have strengthened the market’s expectations for policy regulation. However, the various departments are still only in the research stage, and the subsequent introduction of specific policies may take time.

On the whole, the low season of steel consumption and the implementation of local production restriction policies have led to more steel mills to stop production for maintenance. At the same time, the profit of long-process steel mills is already near the cost line, which has restrained iron ore prices. Therefore, domestic iron ore demand is expected to weaken. In addition, the overseas epidemic situation has improved, the economy has recovered, and various economic indicators have continued to improve, prompting overseas iron ore consumption to remain relatively strong. In the long term, the trend of iron ore prices is mainly affected by the production policy. If subsequent production restriction policies in various regions are implemented, iron ore demand will gradually weaken, and iron ore is likely to enter a state of surplus. However, before the production restriction policy is implemented, it is expected that the price of ore is still more likely to operate on the strong side. In short, there are more uncertainties on the policy side at present. We recommend that investors maintain a neutral wait-and-see attitude in the short term, and pay more attention to policy changes in the future.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: hold a neutral wait-and-see attitude in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity and policy orientation of the production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end, the off-season demand performance at the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the worsening of the epidemic, etc.

Rubber: The price of raw materials stopped falling, and the price of rubber rebounded.

On June 23, the most-active RU contract closed at 12,935 (+265) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,950 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -335 yuan/ton (-15); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 117,803 (-3,074) lots, the short position was 161,711 (-6,732) lots, and the net short position was 43,908 (+3,658) lots.

On June 23, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,570 (+265) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,675 (+20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,665 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,620 (+15) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -61 (+98) yuan/ton.

As of June 11: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 182,604 (+1,029) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,630 (-810) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 57.12 (+0.56), cup lump 42.55 (+0.25), latex 49.5 (0), RSS3 59.59 (+0.59).

As of June 11, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 56.92% (-5.39%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.75 (-5.91%).

Opinion: The departure of market shorts yesterday and the warmer macro environment brought about a rebound in rubber prices. The recent continuous decline in futures prices has narrowed the RU non-standard spread to less than 800 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage traders has left the market with a profit. From a fundamental point of view, the pattern remains weak. The main domestic production areas are ushering in the peak season for delivery, and the raw materials from Yunnan production areas are also being released. Based on the unsatisfactory price of the concentrated latex in the Hainan production area this year, part of the production capacity has returned to full latex, and the increase in standard products is expected to heat up. The weak demand performance is reflected in the slow decline in the operating rate of domestic tire factories. The continued decline in port inventory will bring about a continued decline in the spread between RU and NR. Although the absolute price is at a low level, due to the weak supply and demand drive, it is expected that the rubber price will continue to be weak, and the rebound space is limited.

Strategy: cautiously bearish

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: EIA inventories continue to be destocked, and oil prices are still strong.

Recently, the price of WTI Cushing has been exceptionally strong relative to other US oils. An important reason is that unexpected de-stocking efforts may cause Cushing's crude oil inventories to drop to 30 million barrels in the next few months. Another important reason may be the lack of blended raw materials for DSW crude oil (Cushing's delivery grade and spot flagship oil). The light sweet crude oil delivered locally by Cushing is a blend of light crude oil from a variety of different oil fields. Recently, the amount of WTI midland flowing into Cushing has been significantly reduced and some pipeline reversals have led to changes in the mix of raw materials in Cushing. This may also be the reason for the recent soft squeeze in Cushing. But from a historical point of view, when Cushing's inventory is nearing the bottom, a certain regional premium will be given to encourage the inflow of crude oil from other regions to increase, while the amount of crude oil flowing out of other regions will decrease. Therefore, it is very unlikely that Cushing's inventory is really close to the bottom of the tank.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil

Risk: The Iran nuclear agreement reaches quickly or a black swan event appears in the epidemic.

Copper: The peak season is coming to an end, and the price of copper is expected to remain dominated by shocks.

Spot: According to SMM news, as Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded for two consecutive days yesterday, the buying power of the market continued to weaken. In addition, there was a strong demand for spot exchange in the market during the first half of the year, and there was a large demand for selling futures in exchange for spot, leading to a rapid decline in premiums and discounts. Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 30 yuan/ton in the morning session to test the market, but market inquiries were few. After that, the holders quickly launched the reduction measures, so that the quotations were quickly adjusted to decrease to the normal price level. Under the hope of no premium, the holders appeared collective bids in exchange for spot, and after 10 o'clock, the quotation stood at a discount of 20 yuan/ton. After the second period, a large amount of discounted goods flowed out, but it is still difficult to see a large amount of buying interest in the market. By the end of the trading session, the quotation had slipped to a discount of 40-50 yuan/ton, and the overall trading activity in the market was extremely weak. In the morning market, the High-Grade Copperprice reported a premium of 50 yuan/ton first and then quickly adjusted to 30 yuan/ton, but it is still difficult to see a deal. In the centralized quotation environment of the market, there is almost no spread between High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper. Although a source of High-Grade Copper with a discount of 20 yuan/ton was heard late in the market, there is still little interest for buying side. Due to the tight supply of Hydro-Copper, the price adjustment range is limited, and the overall price is quoted at a discount of around 60-50 yuan/ton. At the end of the afternoon market, there was an outflow of goods such as Bulgaria near a discount of 100 yuan.

Opinion: Yesterday, although copper prices continued the previous rebound pattern, from the perspective of market spot transactions, downstream buying was obviously not as prosperous as it was at the beginning of the week, and overall transactions were relatively weak. At present, the traditional peak season for downstream copper varieties is coming to an end. On the supply side, the price of TC continues to rise, coupled with the impact of the tapering, the supply side may have a relatively negative impact on prices. Therefore, it seems that the fundamentals' support for copper prices has weakened in the short term. However, there is still greater uncertainty in the macro aspect, so the current copper varieties may still be dominated by shocks for the time being.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Crude oil costs have been pushed up, and TA processing fees have continued to rise.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the accumulating rate in July is relatively controllable, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿：政策尚未明朗，铁矿震荡上行

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿早盘震荡上行，午后受消息面影响盘面呈现v型走势。铁矿2109合约收盘价为1173元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨34元/吨，涨幅2.99%，日增仓6838手。现货方面，昨日现货市场普遍上涨，进口铁矿港口现货全天价格上涨5-23元/吨，青岛港PB粉报价1483元/吨，上涨18元/吨，天津港PB粉报价1490元/吨，上涨20元/吨。

根据发改委消息，近日国家发展改革委价格司与市场监管总局价监竞争局派出多个联合工作组，赴有关省市就大宗商品保供稳价问题进行调查。近期，针对铁矿石现货市场交易和大宗商品保供稳价的调研，使得市场对政策调控的预期增强，但目前各部门还仅在调研阶段，后续具体政策的出台可能还需要时间。

总体来看，钢材进入消费淡季叠加各地限产政策，钢厂停产检修增多，加之目前长流程钢厂利润已在成本线附近，对铁矿价格有所抑制，国内铁矿需求预期转弱。而海外疫情好转，经济复苏明显，各项经济指标持续向好，海外铁矿消费仍较为强劲。长期来看，铁矿价格的走势主要受压产政策的影响，若后续各地区的压产政策落地，则铁矿需求将逐渐走弱，铁矿很大可能进入到过剩状态，但在压产政策未落地之前，预计矿价仍有较大可能偏强运行。目前，政策端的不确定性较多，短期维持中性观望，后续需更多关注政策层面变动。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向，成材端淡季需求表现，疫情加重等。

橡胶：原料价格止跌，胶价反弹

23号，RU主力收盘12935（+265）元/吨，混合胶报价11950元/吨（+75），主力合约基差-335元/吨（-15）；前二十主力多头持仓117803（-3074），空头持仓161711（-6732），净空持仓43908（+3658）。

23号，NR主力收盘价10570（+265）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1675（+20）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1665美元/吨（+20），印尼标胶1620（+15）美元/吨。主力合约基差-61（+98）元/吨。

截至6月18日：交易所总库存182604（+1029），交易所仓单174630（-810）。

原料：生胶片57.12（+0.56），杯胶42.55（+0.25），胶水49.5（0），烟片59.59（+0.59）。

截止6月17日，国内全钢胎开工率为56.92%（-5.39%），国内半钢胎开工率为52.75%(-5.91%）。

观点：昨天盘面空头的离场叠加偏暖的宏观环境，带来价格有所反弹。近期期价的持续回落，使得RU非标价差缩窄到800元/吨以内，套利盘获利离场。基本面来看，仍维持偏弱的格局。国内主产区迎来开割旺季，云南产区原料也在陆续释放，而海南产区基于今年浓乳价格不理想，部分重新回流到全乳胶，标品增加预期升温。需求表现偏弱，反映在国内轮胎厂开工率的缓步下降。港口库存的持续回落，将带来RU与NR价差的继续回落。尽管绝对价格低位，但供需驱动偏弱，预计胶价将延续偏弱格局，反弹空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：EIA库存持续去化，油价表现仍偏强

近期WTI Cushing价格相对其他美国油种异常强势，除了此前所说的超出预期的去库力度可能导致未来几个月内库欣原油库存下降至3000万桶以外，另外一个重要原因可能是缺乏DSW原油（库欣的交割牌号与现货旗舰油种）的调和原料，由于在库欣当地交割的轻质低硫原油是由多种不同油田的轻质原油调和而成，而近期WTI midland流入库欣的量明显减少以及部分管道逆转导致库欣当地的调和原料配比发生变化，这也可能是导致近期库欣当地出现软挤仓的原因，但从历史来看，在库欣库存接近底部之时，给出一定地区溢价后激励其他地区原油流入增加，同时流出其他地区原油数量减少，因此库欣库存真正接近罐底的可能性微乎其微。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情出现黑天鹅

铜：旺季接近尾声 铜价预计仍以震荡格局为主

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日由于沪铜连续两日止跌回升，市场买盘力量持续走弱，加上半年度市场换现需求强烈，市场存在大量甩货换现需求，导致升贴水迅速下泄。平水铜早市始报于升水30元/吨试探市场，市场询价者寥寥，持货商迅速展开调降之势，很快报至平水附近，升水无望之下，持货商出现倾轧性出价换现，10点后已然出现贴水20元/吨的报价，第二时段后，贴水货源大量流出依旧难见市场大量买兴，尾盘已滑向贴水40-50元/吨，市场整体交投活跃度极为疲弱。早市开盘好铜始报于升水50元/吨后迅速调至升水30元/吨难见成交，在市场踩踏式报价环境下，和平水铜几无价差，尾盘听闻贴水20元/吨的好铜依然乏人问津。湿法铜由于整体货源偏紧，调价幅度有限，整体报至贴水60-50元/吨附近，午市尾盘已闻有贴水百元附近的保加利亚之类的货源流出。

观点：昨日，虽然铜价格延续着此前的反弹格局，但是从市场现货成交的角度上来看，下游买兴显然没有周初之时兴旺，整体成交较为寡淡。目前铜品种下游传统旺季已经接近尾声，而在供应端上，TC价格持续回升，叠加抛储事宜的影响，供应端对价格的影响或将相对负面，因此短时内看来基本面对于铜价的支撑力度有所减弱，而宏观方面则仍有较大不确定性，故此当下铜品种或暂时仍以震荡格局为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：原油成本推涨，TA加工费亦持续坚挺

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，7月累库速率相对可控，TA加工费短期仍可；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性