Iron ore: The game between Longs and Shorts has intensified, and iron ore fluctuates widely.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore market opened high and then declined. In the afternoon session, the iron ore bottomed out and rebounded, showing a wide-ranging fluctuating trend as a whole. The closing price of the iron ore 2109 contract was 1,164.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.5 yuan/ton, or 0.72%, from the closing price of the previous trading day, with the open interest losing 12,228 lots. In terms of spot, the spot price of imported iron ore of ports showed a mix of gains and losses throughout the day. The PB fines price of Qingdao Port reported 1,475 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, and the PB fines price of Tianjin Port stood at 1,490 yuan/ton, which was the same as yesterday. In terms of transactions, due to the greater volatility of the futures market, the spot transaction was poor yesterday, and the market sentiment was mainly dominated by a wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of demand, the steel production, sales and inventory data released by the Steel Union show that the total inventory of the five building materials commonly used in construction is 21.1007 million tons, an increase of 561,800 tons on a week-on-week basis. Among them, the social inventory is 14.4541 million tons, which is an increase of 216,500 tons on a week-on-week basis; the factory inventory was 66.466 million tons, an increase of 345,300 tons on a week-on-week basis. As downstream steel consumption enters the off-season, steel mill inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and there are obvious signs of steel inventory accumulation. At the same time, the weekly production of steel is also declining, and iron ore demand is expected to weaken.

In general, the recent investigations conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission on iron ore spot market transactions have strengthened the market’s expectations for policy regulation. The repeated changes in market sentiment have cooled speculation, coupled with the off-season of steel consumption, and more steel mills have stopped production for maintenance, it is expected that domestic iron ore consumption will continue to weaken. On the other hand, the current iron ore has maintained a relatively large discount. Before the local production restriction policies are implemented, the price of iron ores is still more likely to run on the strong side. However, there are many uncertainties on the policy side. We recommend that investors maintain a neutral wait-and-see attitude in the short term, and pay more attention to policy changes in the future.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: hold a neutral wait-and-see attitude in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks: the intensity and policy orientation of the production restriction at the thread and hot-rolled coil end, the off-season demand performance at the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the worsening of the epidemic, etc.

Rubber: Supply and demand are weak, and rebound space is limited.

On June 24, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,010 (+75) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,975 (+25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -360 yuan/ton (-25); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 114,558 (-3,245) lots, the short position was 159,920 (-1,791) lots, and the net short position was 45,362 (-1,454) lots.

On June 24, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,670 (+100) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,690 (+15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,680 (+15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,630 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -104 (+88) yuan/ton.

As of June 11: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 182,604 (+1,029) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,630 (-810) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 57 (-0.12), cup lump 42.7 (+0.15), latex 49.5 (0), RSS3 59.36 (-0.23).

As of June 11, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 56.92% (-5.39%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 52.75 (-5.91%).

Opinion: Supported by the market atmosphere, the price of rubber continued to rebound yesterday. From a fundamental point of view, the pattern remains weak. The main domestic production areas are ushering in the peak season for delivery, and the raw materials from Yunnan production areas are also being released. Based on the unsatisfactory price of the concentrated latex in the Hainan production area this year, part of the production capacity has returned to full latex, and the increase in standard products is expected to heat up. The weak demand performance is reflected in the slow decline in the operating rate of domestic tire factories. The continued decline in port inventory will bring about a continued decline in the spread between RU and NR. Although the absolute price is at a low level, due to the weak supply and demand drive, it is expected that the rubber price will continue to be weak, and the rebound space is limited.

Strategy: neutrally

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: U.S.-Iran divergence still exists, pay attention to OPEC production restriction meeting.

Approaching the OPEC meeting, the market is concerned about the decision-making of oil-producing countries. Recently, Saudi Arabia said that OPEC should be responsible for controlling inflation. This statement seems to imply that oil prices are close to the price ceiling that Saudi Arabia tolerates. Taking into account the current market conditions, as Iranian oil cannot return to the market in a short period of time, coupled with the slow resumption of shale oil production in the United States, only the limited production alliance can increase production in the short term. In particular, Saudi Arabia still has a large amount of surplus capacity. Therefore, Saudi Arabia still has the ability to control oil prices, but whether it has such a willingness is still unknown. The current market generally expects that OPEC will continue to increase production after August, but the pace of increase is uncertain. The mainstream expectation is still a gradual increase in production rather than a complete relaxation of production restrictions.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of crude oil

Risk: The Iran nuclear agreement reaches quickly or a black swan event appears in the epidemic.

Copper: The Biden government once again implemented a fiscal stimulus package, and copper prices maintained a volatile pattern.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, the copper market surged first and then fell yesterday. The performance of market buying power was still weak, and as the middle of the year is approaching, the bank’s accumulation of reserves has led to a strong market for spot exchange sentiment. Fortunately, some market participants had demand for bills, which made the premiums and discounts rebound slightly in late trading. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported at a discount of around 40-30 yuan/ton, but market transactions were weak. Although some holders quickly adjusted their prices to a discount of 50 yuan/ton in exchange for spot, the market was still difficult to see a large number of transactions. However, the holders were unwilling to adjust prices again, causing the market to be in a stalemate for a time. After the second period, the buying power had strengthened, and some trade buying actively received goods, making the discount slightly warmed to around 30 yuan/ton. The quotations of High-Grade Copper and Low-Quality Copper were relatively stable. Except for Guixi-Copper, which was reported stable at the level of Standard-Grade Copper, the rest of High-Grade Copper stood at a discount of 30-10 yuan/ton. It was difficult to see price differences between different grades. The supply of Hydro-Copper market was relatively scarce, and it was difficult to find a large number of new quotations in the later trading market. A small number of brands such as BIRLA reported a discount of 80-70 yuan/ton to guide the overall market quotation.

Opinion: Yesterday, US President Biden announced that he agreed to the infrastructure plan proposed by the bipartisan senator group. According to media reports, the total cost of the program is US$1.2 trillion. The program lasts for 8 years and includes approximately $559 billion in new expenditures. But fundamentally, the current traditional peak season for copper varieties is coming to an end. On the supply side, TC prices continue to rise, coupled with the impact of tapering issues, the supply side may have a relatively negative impact on prices. Therefore, it seems that the fundamentals' support for copper prices has weakened in the short term. However, there is still greater uncertainty in the macro aspect, so the current copper varieties may still be dominated by shocks for the time being.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: In the context of the July contract reduction, PTA continued to strengthen.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the accumulating rate in July is relatively controllable, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿：多空博弈加剧，铁矿宽幅震荡

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿盘面高开低走，午后探底回升，整体呈现宽幅震荡走势。铁矿2109合约收盘价为1164.5元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌8.5元/吨，跌幅0.72%，日减仓12228手。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货全天价格涨跌互现。青岛港PB粉报价1475元/吨，下跌8元/吨，天津港PB粉报价1490元/吨，与昨日持平。成交方面，受期货盘面波动较大影响，昨日现货成交较差，市场情绪以观望为主。

需求方面，钢联公布的钢材产销存数据显示，五大成材总库存2110.07万吨，周环比增加56.18万吨，其中社会库存1445.41万吨，周环比增加21.65万吨；厂内库存664.66万吨，周环比增加34.53万吨。随着下游钢材消费进入淡季，钢厂库存已连续三周增加，钢材累库迹象明显。与此同时，钢材的周度产量也在下滑，铁矿需求预期减弱。

总体来看，近期发改委针对铁矿石现货市场交易的调研，使得市场对政策调控的预期增强，市场情绪反复，投机开始降温，叠加钢材进入消费淡季，钢厂停产检修增多，预计国内铁矿消费将持续走弱。另一方面，目前铁矿一直维持较大贴水，在各地限产政策还未落地前，矿价仍有较大可能偏强运行。但目前政策端的不确定性较多，短期维持中性观望，后续需更多关注政策层面变动。

策略：

单边 ：短期中性观望

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向，成材端淡季需求表现，疫情加重等。

橡胶：供需偏弱，反弹空间受限

24号，RU主力收盘13010（+75）元/吨，混合胶报价11975元/吨（+25），主力合约基差-360元/吨（-25）；前二十主力多头持仓114558（-3245），空头持仓159920（-1791），净空持仓45362（-1454）。

24号，NR主力收盘价10670（+100）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1690（+15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1680美元/吨（+15），印尼标胶1630（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-104（+88）元/吨。

截至6月18日：交易所总库存182604（+1029），交易所仓单174630（-810）。

原料：生胶片57（-0.12），杯胶42.7（+0.15），胶水49.5（0），烟片59.36（-0.23）。

截止6月17日，国内全钢胎开工率为56.92%（-5.39%），国内半钢胎开工率为52.75%(-5.91%）。

观点：在市场氛围烘托下，昨天胶价延续反弹。基本面来看，仍维持偏弱的格局。国内主产区迎来开割旺季，云南产区原料也在陆续释放，而海南产区基于今年浓乳价格不理想，部分重新回流到全乳胶，标品增加预期升温。需求表现偏弱，反映在国内轮胎厂开工率的缓步下降。港口库存的持续回落，将带来RU与NR价差的继续回落。尽管绝对价格低位，以及在周边氛围的带动下，胶价呈现小幅反弹格局，但供需驱动偏弱，预计反弹空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：美伊分歧仍存，关注欧佩克限产会议

临近欧佩克会议，市场关注产油国动向，近日沙特称欧佩克应当有责任控制通胀，这一表态似乎暗示油价已经接近沙特容忍的价格上限，考虑到当前的市场情况，由于伊朗石油无法短期重返市场，叠加美国页岩油复产缓慢，当前唯一能在短期内增加产量就只有限产联盟，尤其是沙特，当下依然有数量较大的剩余产能，因此沙特依然有着调控油价的能力，但是否有这样的意愿仍不得而知，当前市场普遍预期欧佩克会在8月后继续增产，但增产节奏并不确定，主流预期仍然是渐进式增产而非完全放松限产。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情出现黑天鹅

铜：拜登政府又推财政刺激方案 铜价维持震荡格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日盘面冲高回落，市场买盘力量表现依旧较弱，且年中将至，银行吸储导致市场换现情绪强烈，好在市场部分参与者有票据需求，尾盘升贴水小幅回暖。早市平水铜始报于贴水40-30元/吨左右，市场成交疲软，部分持货商为换现甩货迅速调价至贴水50元/吨依旧难见大量成交但持货商也不愿再度调价，市场一度处于僵持阶段，第二时段后买盘力量有所增强，部分贸易买盘积极收货，贴水小幅回暖至贴水30元/吨左右。好铜和湿法铜报价日内则表现相对稳定，出贵溪铜稳定报于平水外，其余好铜报于贴水30-贴水10元/吨之间，品牌之间难见价差。湿法铜市场货源较为稀缺，市场难觅大量报价，少量BIRLA等品牌报至贴水80-70元/吨之间指引市场整体报价。

观点：昨日，美国总统拜登宣布，他同意了两党参议员小组所提出的基建计划。据媒体报道，该方案总成本为1.2万亿美元，为期8年，包含约5590亿美元新支出。但基本面上，目前铜品种下游传统旺季已经接近尾声，而在供应端上，TC价格持续回升，叠加抛储事宜的影响，供应端对价格的影响或将相对负面，因此短时内看来基本面对于铜价的支撑力度有所减弱，而宏观方面则仍有较大不确定性，故此当下铜品种或暂时仍以震荡格局为主。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：7月合约减量背景下，PTA持续坚挺

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，7月累库速率相对可控，TA加工费短期仍可；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性