Iron ore: The market is turbulent and iron ore prices are under pressure.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, both the open interest and trading volume of the most-active iron ore contracts rose sharply, and the closing price reported 1,196 yuan/ton, up 24.5 yuan/ton, or 2.09%. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,503 yuan/ton, up by 12 yuan/ton, SSF stood at 1,065 yuan/ton, up by 18 yuan/ton, and the spread between high and low grade products was 438 yuan/ton.

National Bureau of Statistics: In the next stage, efforts should be made to guide the return of commodity prices to the fundamentals of supply and demand, and promote the sustained and stable recovery of the industrial economy. Tiejun Luo, vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, pointed out that traders and mines' price hikes, Singapore swaps, and Platts index have jointly pushed iron ore to a crazy level. According to Mysteel's statistics, China's 45 port arrivals totaled 21.63 million tons, an increase of 1.834 million tons from the previous week. Australia and Brazil shipped 27.723 million tons of iron ore, a week-on-week increase of 3.541 million tons; Australia shipped 19.812 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.524 million tons; of which Australia shipped 15.603 million tons to China, a week-on-week increase of 805,000 tons; while the figure for Brazil was 7.911 million tons, an increase of 2.017 million tons from the previous week. The total global shipping volume was 34.688 million tons, an increase of 4.820 million tons from the previous week. The arrival and shipment data increased simultaneously, and were still within the historical normal range.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices all the way. In May, the State Council investigated the high prices of bulk commodities, and the price of iron ore subsequently dropped, but now it has returned to and maintained at a relatively high point. In the short term, as approaching the celebrating of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the China Communist Party, the steel and coal sectors have started to stop production for 1-2 weeks, and the scope is still expanding. This is expected to have less impact on iron ore. Looking ahead, the turbulent industrial policy is still the core factor in determining the price of iron ore. If the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan to reduce the output of crude steel throughout the year continues, and the steel industry's capacity and output double control becomes more stringent, iron ore prices in the second half of the year will be highly pressured.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bullish in the short term, and the later trend depends on industrial policy

Cross-species: go long positions of thread and hot-rolled coil

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments, etc.

Rubber: The supply is gradually increasing, and the price of raw materials is weak.

On June 28, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,150 (-80) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,050 (-75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -375 yuan/ton (0); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 109,315 (-35) lots, the short position was 156,787 (+905) lots, and the net short position was 47,472 (+940) lots.

On June 28, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,770 (-25) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,680 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,670 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,630 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -244 (-2) yuan/ton.

As of June 25: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 183,534 (+930) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,820 (+190) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 57.3 (-0.29), cup lump 43.55 (+0.2), latex 49.5 (0), RSS3 59.46 (-0.4).

As of June 24, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.13% (+7.21%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 58.95 +6.2(%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the price of rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and the main overseas production areas gradually increased the delivery volume, which brought the price of raw materials weak. Backed by the favorable market sentiment, the price of rubber continued to rebound yesterday. As the futures prices stopped falling and rebounded last week, the RU non-standard spreads widened again, reflecting the weakness of spot prices. The tire operating rate rebounded last week, but it still did not rebound to the high operating rate before May, reflecting the downward shift in demand and the expected increase in the peak supply season. Under the current weak supply and demand pattern, prices are unlikely to perform well.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: The market expects OPEC to increase production slightly.

On July 1st, OPEC will hold a meeting to discuss production restrictions. The market expects that OPEC will only increase production slightly, that is, production in August is expected to increase by 500,000 barrels per day from the previous month. We believe that OPEC has a high probability of maintaining the current cautious production strategy unchanged, the main reasons are:

1. The unpredictability of the lifting of Iran's sanctions. If Iranian oil returns to the market in the second half of the year, and OPEC increases production to match demand, supply and demand will be unbalanced again, and production will have to be reduced (similar to October 2018);

2. The current global inventory destocking has not been completed;

3. The uncertainty of demand growth still exists (especially the speed and extent of recovery). In addition, those in the OPEC member countries that lack the capacity to increase production are expected to oppose or postpone the increase.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: Pressure and support coexist, and copper prices maintain a volatile pattern.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, the market price yesterday remained around 68,300 yuan/ton and fluctuated within a narrow range, and downstream buying was hard to see a recovery. The long-term trade orders are suspended, and the next month's contract dominates the market. The market's demand for the current month's contract was obviously lower than that of the end of last week. In the morning market, the price of Standard-Grade Copper for the next month contract was quoted at a premium of about 70-80 yuan/ton to test the market's buying power, but the market was hard to see buying interest, and trading was sluggish. Some holders still have spot exchange requirements, so they adjusted their quotations to a premium of 50-60 yuan/ton, but it was still difficult to see active trading, resulting in deadlock between buyers and sellers. After the second period, the holders adjusted the price again to a premium of 40 yuan/ton before the transaction rebounded slightly. The quotations of High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper fell slightly following the quotations of Standard-Grade Copper. High-Grade Copper reported 70-100 yuan/ton, and Guixi-Copper even reported a premium of 80 yuan/ton in late trading, but it was still difficult to see a deal. Under the guidance of BL and other brands, Hydro-Copper reported a discount of 20 yuan to 10 yuan/ton for the next month contract, but it was not attractive to downstream buying, and both buyers and sellers maintained a see-saw trend.

Opinion: Yesterday, the market as a whole showed a relatively cautious attitude. At present, Fed officials still have certain differences on when to start reducing QE, and the U.S. dollar is currently in a turbulent pattern. In terms of fundamentals, it is now at the turn of the traditional low and peak seasons. And on the supply side, TC prices have continued to rise in recent weeks, and the supply of scrap copper has also increased. However, on the other hand, since part of the original peak season demand in the second quarter was suppressed due to the relatively high copper price before, this situation may also reappear after the current copper price has fallen. Therefore, there is also a certain buying support below. Under such circumstances, copper prices may still maintain a shock pattern between 65,000 and 70,000.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The production and sales of filament are increasing, and TA processing fees are still strong.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the accumulating rate in July is relatively controllable, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿：市场动荡，铁矿石价格承压。

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石主力合约放量增仓上涨，收于1196元/吨，涨24.5元/吨，涨幅2.09%。青岛港PB报1503元/吨涨12元/吨，超特报1065元/吨涨18元/吨，高低品价差438元/吨。

国家统计局：下阶段，要着力引导大宗商品价格向供需基本面回归，推动工业经济持续稳定恢复。中国钢铁工业协会副会长骆铁军指出，贸易商和矿山抬价、新加坡掉期、普氏指数三者联动推高铁矿石到疯狂程度。Mysteel统计中国45港到港总量2163.0万吨，环比增加183.4万吨。澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2772.3万吨，环比增加354.1万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1981.2万吨，环比增加152.4万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1560.3万吨，环比增加80.5万吨；巴西发货总量791.1万吨，环比增加201.7万吨。全球发运总量3468.8万吨，环比增加482.0万吨。到港及发运数据同步上涨，尚处历史正常区间范围内。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。五月国务院喊话大宗商品的高价格，铁矿的价格随之回落，但目前再次回到并维持在相对价格高点。短期来看，临近百年党庆，钢铁、煤炭领域纷纷开启了1-2周的停产，且范围仍在扩大，预计对铁矿石的冲击较小。展望后市，风起云涌的产业政策仍然是决定铁矿石价格的最核心影响因素，若年初工信部全年压减粗钢的计划继续推行，叠加钢铁行业的产能产量双控趋严，下半年的铁矿石价格岌岌可危。

策略：

单边：短期偏强，后期走势取决于产业政策

跨品种：多材

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：供应逐步增加，原料价格偏弱

28号，RU主力收盘13150（-80）元/吨，混合胶报价12050元/吨（-75），主力合约基差-375元/吨（0）；前二十主力多头持仓109315（-35），空头持仓156787（+905），净空持仓47472（+940）。

28号，NR主力收盘价10770（-25）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1680（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1670美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1630（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-244（-2）元/吨。

截至6月25日：交易所总库存183534（+930），交易所仓单174820（+190）。

原料：生胶片57.3（-0.29），杯胶43.55（+0.2），胶水49.5（0），烟片59.46（-0.4）。

截止6月24日，国内全钢胎开工率为64.13%（+7.21%），国内半钢胎开工率为58.95%(+6.2%）。

观点：昨天橡胶盘面价格窄幅波动，海外主产区逐步放量，带来原料价格偏弱。在市场氛围烘托下，昨天胶价延续反弹。随着期价上周止跌反弹后，RU非标价差重新扩大，反映现货价格疲弱。上周轮胎开工率有所反弹，但依然没有回升5月之前的高开工，反映需求重心下移，供应旺季预期增强，供需格局偏弱下，价格难有表现。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：市场预期欧佩克仅小幅增产

7月1日欧佩克将开会讨论限产政策，市场预期欧佩克仅会小幅增产，预计8月产量环比增加50万桶/日，我们认为欧佩克大概率维持当前谨慎增产策略不变，主要原因在于：1、伊朗制裁解除的不可预测性，如果伊朗石油下半年重返市场，而欧佩克增产完全匹配需求，会让供需再度失衡，又不得不被迫减产（类似2018年10月）；2、当前全球库存去化尚未完成；3、需求增长的不确定性仍存（尤其是恢复速度与幅度），此外，欧佩克成员国当中那些缺乏增产能力的国家预计将会反对增产或者推迟增产。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：压力与支撑共存 铜价维持震荡格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日盘面依旧围绕在68300元/吨附近窄幅整理，下游买兴难见回暖，且贸易长单暂停下月票主导市场，市场对当月票需求明显不及上周尾。早市平水铜对下月票报价使报于升水70-80元/吨左右，试探市场买盘力量，无奈市场难见买兴，交投清淡，部分持货商依旧存有换现需求下，调整报价至升水50-60元/吨依旧难见活跃交投，买卖双方僵持不下，第二时段后持货商再度调价至升水40元/吨成交才略显回应。好铜和湿法铜报价跟随平水铜报价小幅回落，好铜报至70-100元/吨，贵溪铜尾盘甚至都报至升水80元/吨依旧难见成交。湿法铜在BL等品牌指引下对下月票报至贴水20-升水10元/吨，但对下游买盘吸引度不足，买卖双方维持拉锯之势。

观点：昨日，市场整体呈现相对谨慎的态度。目前美联储官员对于合适开始缩减QE仍存在一定分歧，美元当下也暂陷震荡格局之中。而从基本面而言，目前正处传统淡旺季交替之际，并且就供应端而言，近几周TC价格持续呈现走高态势，并且废铜的供应也有所增加。不过另一方面，由于2季度中部分原本的旺季需求因此前铜价相对偏高而受到抑制，故此也可能会在当前铜价出现回落之后而再度浮现，因此下方也同样存在一定买盘支撑，而在这样的情况下，铜价或仍维持65,000至70,000间的震荡格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：长丝产销放量，TA加工费仍坚挺

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，7月累库速率相对可控，TA加工费短期仍可；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性