Iron ore: The production restriction is expected to strengthen again, and the price of iron ore is running on the weak side.
Opinion and logic:
Yesterday, both the open interest and trading volume of the most-active iron ore contracts dropped sharply, and the closing price reported 1,153 yuan/ton, down 31.5 yuan/ton, or 2.66%. Spot prices generally fell, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,482 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton; SSF reported 1,045 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; and the spread between high and low grade products was 437 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the main port had a transaction of 900,000 tons, and the transaction has been stable recently.
News came out yesterday: The crude steel production limit target in Anhui Province may be that the annual crude steel output does not exceed last year. The market is expected to limit production again, and iron ore prices have been weakened due to this impact.
On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices all the way. In May, the State Council investigated the high prices of bulk commodities, and the price of iron ore subsequently dropped, but now it has returned to and maintained at a relatively high point. In the short term, as approaching the celebrating of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the China Communist Party, the steel and coal sectors have started to stop production for 1-2 weeks, and the scope is still expanding. This is expected to have less impact on iron ore. Looking ahead, the national policy of restricting crude steel production is still the core factor determining the direction of iron ore prices. If the plan to reduce crude steel continues to be implemented throughout the year, there is a high probability that overseas demand will not be able to make up for the reduction in domestic molten iron, and iron ore prices in the second half of the year will be highly pressured.
Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term
Cross-species: go long positions of thread and hot-rolled coil
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;
2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;
3. Iron ore shipments, etc.
Rubber: Port inventory continued to decline.
On June 29, the most-active RU contract closed at 12,845 (-385) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -70 yuan/ton (+385); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 109,315 (-35) lots, the short position was 156,787 (+905) lots, and the net short position was 47,472 (+940) lots.
On June 29, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,470 (-325) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,660 (-20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,645 (-25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,610 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -75 (+169) yuan/ton.
As of June 25: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 183,534 (+930) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,820 (+190) lots.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 56.6 (-0.7), cup lump 43.5 (-0.02), latex 49.5 (0), RSS3 57.62 (-1.84).
As of June 24, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.13% (+7.21%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 58.95 +6.2(%).
Opinion: The sudden drop in the rubber market yesterday was mainly due to the increase in overhauls of tire plants this week brought about by the recent domestic environmental inspections, and the expected impact of further weakening of raw material demand brought about by the continued decline in operating rates. The domestic Qingdao port inventory announced yesterday continued to fall, but the spot price was still weak, reflecting unsatisfactory demand. Major overseas production areas have gradually increased the delivery volume, and the prices of raw materials have continued to decline. Yesterday, the price of raw materials in Thailand continued to fall, and the spread between RSS3 and latex was still large. The price of RSS3 has dropped significantly, while latex shows signs of slowing down. The peak supply season is expected to increase, and prices are operating at a weaker pace under the weak supply and demand pattern. When the price is low, it is not recommended to increase the short position too much.
Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.
Crude oil: API crude oil inventories fell sharply.
Yesterday API announced inventory data: crude oil inventories continued to fall sharply, and refined oil inventories increased, but the growth rate was much lower than that of crude oil. In comparison with historical data, EIA's inventory decline in June far exceeded seasonal performance, which shows that crude oil fundamentals in the US market are still tight. At present, the operating rate of refineries in the United States has recovered to more than 90%. The recent increase in aviation consumption has significantly boosted the overall operating rate of refineries. In addition, the recovery of US crude oil production is still slow, and the supply and demand price scissors has accelerated inventory destocking. And because the increase in refinery operating rate is brought about by the recovery of terminal consumption, the performance of refined oil cracking spreads is relatively stable. Compared with the US market, due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand for refined oil products in the Asia-Pacific market has recovered slowly, and no positive feedback has been formed on the consumer side. However, due to the increase in the operating rate of the refinery, the current procurement of crude oil is also increasing, and both the recent crude oil inter-month spread structure and physical discount have been relatively strong.
Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures
Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.
Copper: The US dollar strengthened, and copper prices were relatively defensive.
Spot: According to SMM, in the spot market yesterday, most of the holders were still in a stalemate at the beginning of the morning market. Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of around 40 yuan/ton, and High-Grade Copper reported a premium of 70-80 yuan/ton, but there were few transactions in the market. After 9:30, there were investors who were short of contracts at the end of the month and asked for sources with low prices, which disrupted the original rhythm of the market and caused the market to start a trend of price reductions. Soon there was a price for Standard-Grade Copper with a premium of 20-30 yuan/ton, and the transaction rebounded slightly. The price of High-Grade Copper subsequently dropped to a premium of 50 yuan/ton. After 11 o'clock, when the market started to accelerate the downward trend, the number of people holding a wait-and-see attitude on the spot side increased, and the price of High-Grade Copper fell to around a premium of 40 yuan/ton. But relatively speaking, the decline of High-Grade Copper is limited, and the favor is more limited. At the opening of the morning market, there was an outflow of supplies such as ESOX with a discount of 40-30 yuan/ton for Hydro-Copper . However, due to the limited downstream market access, the rate of further decline is also limited.
Opinion: Yesterday, the US dollar index once rose to 92.20. In the process, copper prices dropped slightly, but to a limited extent, which shows that the fundamentals of copper varieties have not changed much at present. Although the supply side may gradually become more affluent in the near future, for the downstream, purchases that were suppressed in the previous second quarter due to relatively high prices may be reinvigorated after the recent drop in copper prices. Therefore, under such circumstances, copper prices may still maintain a relatively volatile pattern.
In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.
1. Unilateral: neutrally
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations
4. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: The recovery of crude oil drove the fall of PTA, and the production line of Yisheng new materials has been put into operation.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the accumulating rate in July is relatively controllable, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.
Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for the intertemporal reverse arbitrage opportunities.
Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.
铜： 美元走强 铜价相对抗跌
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧