Iron ore: The production restriction is expected to strengthen again, and the price of iron ore is running on the weak side.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, both the open interest and trading volume of the most-active iron ore contracts dropped sharply, and the closing price reported 1,153 yuan/ton, down 31.5 yuan/ton, or 2.66%. Spot prices generally fell, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,482 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton; SSF reported 1,045 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; and the spread between high and low grade products was 437 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the main port had a transaction of 900,000 tons, and the transaction has been stable recently.

News came out yesterday: The crude steel production limit target in Anhui Province may be that the annual crude steel output does not exceed last year. The market is expected to limit production again, and iron ore prices have been weakened due to this impact.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices all the way. In May, the State Council investigated the high prices of bulk commodities, and the price of iron ore subsequently dropped, but now it has returned to and maintained at a relatively high point. In the short term, as approaching the celebrating of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the China Communist Party, the steel and coal sectors have started to stop production for 1-2 weeks, and the scope is still expanding. This is expected to have less impact on iron ore. Looking ahead, the national policy of restricting crude steel production is still the core factor determining the direction of iron ore prices. If the plan to reduce crude steel continues to be implemented throughout the year, there is a high probability that overseas demand will not be able to make up for the reduction in domestic molten iron, and iron ore prices in the second half of the year will be highly pressured.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: go long positions of thread and hot-rolled coil

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments, etc.

Rubber: Port inventory continued to decline.

On June 29, the most-active RU contract closed at 12,845 (-385) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -70 yuan/ton (+385); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 109,315 (-35) lots, the short position was 156,787 (+905) lots, and the net short position was 47,472 (+940) lots.

On June 29, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,470 (-325) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,660 (-20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,645 (-25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,610 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -75 (+169) yuan/ton.

As of June 25: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 183,534 (+930) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,820 (+190) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 56.6 (-0.7), cup lump 43.5 (-0.02), latex 49.5 (0), RSS3 57.62 (-1.84).

As of June 24, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.13% (+7.21%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 58.95 +6.2(%).

Opinion: The sudden drop in the rubber market yesterday was mainly due to the increase in overhauls of tire plants this week brought about by the recent domestic environmental inspections, and the expected impact of further weakening of raw material demand brought about by the continued decline in operating rates. The domestic Qingdao port inventory announced yesterday continued to fall, but the spot price was still weak, reflecting unsatisfactory demand. Major overseas production areas have gradually increased the delivery volume, and the prices of raw materials have continued to decline. Yesterday, the price of raw materials in Thailand continued to fall, and the spread between RSS3 and latex was still large. The price of RSS3 has dropped significantly, while latex shows signs of slowing down. The peak supply season is expected to increase, and prices are operating at a weaker pace under the weak supply and demand pattern. When the price is low, it is not recommended to increase the short position too much.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: API crude oil inventories fell sharply.

Yesterday API announced inventory data: crude oil inventories continued to fall sharply, and refined oil inventories increased, but the growth rate was much lower than that of crude oil. In comparison with historical data, EIA's inventory decline in June far exceeded seasonal performance, which shows that crude oil fundamentals in the US market are still tight. At present, the operating rate of refineries in the United States has recovered to more than 90%. The recent increase in aviation consumption has significantly boosted the overall operating rate of refineries. In addition, the recovery of US crude oil production is still slow, and the supply and demand price scissors has accelerated inventory destocking. And because the increase in refinery operating rate is brought about by the recovery of terminal consumption, the performance of refined oil cracking spreads is relatively stable. Compared with the US market, due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand for refined oil products in the Asia-Pacific market has recovered slowly, and no positive feedback has been formed on the consumer side. However, due to the increase in the operating rate of the refinery, the current procurement of crude oil is also increasing, and both the recent crude oil inter-month spread structure and physical discount have been relatively strong.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: The US dollar strengthened, and copper prices were relatively defensive.

Spot: According to SMM, in the spot market yesterday, most of the holders were still in a stalemate at the beginning of the morning market. Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of around 40 yuan/ton, and High-Grade Copper reported a premium of 70-80 yuan/ton, but there were few transactions in the market. After 9:30, there were investors who were short of contracts at the end of the month and asked for sources with low prices, which disrupted the original rhythm of the market and caused the market to start a trend of price reductions. Soon there was a price for Standard-Grade Copper with a premium of 20-30 yuan/ton, and the transaction rebounded slightly. The price of High-Grade Copper subsequently dropped to a premium of 50 yuan/ton. After 11 o'clock, when the market started to accelerate the downward trend, the number of people holding a wait-and-see attitude on the spot side increased, and the price of High-Grade Copper fell to around a premium of 40 yuan/ton. But relatively speaking, the decline of High-Grade Copper is limited, and the favor is more limited. At the opening of the morning market, there was an outflow of supplies such as ESOX with a discount of 40-30 yuan/ton for Hydro-Copper . However, due to the limited downstream market access, the rate of further decline is also limited.

Opinion: Yesterday, the US dollar index once rose to 92.20. In the process, copper prices dropped slightly, but to a limited extent, which shows that the fundamentals of copper varieties have not changed much at present. Although the supply side may gradually become more affluent in the near future, for the downstream, purchases that were suppressed in the previous second quarter due to relatively high prices may be reinvigorated after the recent drop in copper prices. Therefore, under such circumstances, copper prices may still maintain a relatively volatile pattern.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The recovery of crude oil drove the fall of PTA, and the production line of Yisheng new materials has been put into operation.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the accumulating rate in July is relatively controllable, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for the intertemporal reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿：限产预期再起，价格偏弱运行

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石主力合约缩量减仓下跌，收于1153元/吨，跌31.5元/吨，涨幅2.66%。现货价格普跌，青岛港PB报1482元/吨跌21元/吨，超特报1045元/吨跌20元/吨，高低品价差437元/吨。昨日主港成交90万吨，近期成交平稳。

昨日传出安徽省粗钢压产目标或为全年粗钢产量不超去年，市场限产预期再起，铁矿石价格受此影响表现偏弱。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。五月国务院喊话大宗商品的高价格，铁矿的价格随之回落，但目前再次回到并维持在相对价格高点。短期来看，临近百年党庆，钢铁、煤炭领域纷纷开启了1-2周的停产，且范围仍在扩大，预计对铁矿石的冲击较小。展望后市，全国粗钢压产的政策仍然是决定铁矿石价格方向的最核心因素，若全年压减粗钢的计划继续落地推行，海外的需求大概率无法弥补国内铁水的减量，下半年的铁矿石价格岌岌可危。

策略：

单边：中期看跌

跨品种：多材

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等。

橡胶：港口库存延续下降

29号，RU主力收盘12845（-385）元/吨，混合胶报价11900元/吨（-150），主力合约基差-70元/吨（+385）；前二十主力多头持仓109315（-35），空头持仓156787（+905），净空持仓47472（+940）。

29号，NR主力收盘价10470（-325）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1660（-20）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1645美元/吨（-25），印尼标胶1610（-20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-75（+169）元/吨。

截至6月25日：交易所总库存183534（+930），交易所仓单174820（+190）。

原料：生胶片56.6（-0.7），杯胶43.5（-0.02），胶水49.5（0），烟片57.62（-1.84）。

截止6月24日，国内全钢胎开工率为64.13%（+7.21%），国内半钢胎开工率为58.95%(+6.2%）。

观点：昨天橡胶盘中突然下挫，主要受到近期国内环保检查带来的本周轮胎厂检修增加，开工率继续下滑带来原料需求进一步走弱的预期。昨天公布的国内青岛港口库存继续降，但现货价格仍表现较弱，反映需求不理想。海外主产区逐步放量，原料价格持续下行。昨天泰国原料价格延续下跌，其中因烟片与胶水的价差仍较大，烟片价格跌幅明显，且近期烟片都在持续补跌中来回归其与胶水较高的价差，胶水反而有下跌放缓的迹象。供应旺季预期增强，供需格局偏弱下，价格偏弱运行。价格低位下，不建议过分追空。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API原油库存大幅下降

昨日API公布库存数据，原油库存延续大幅下降，成品油库存有所增加，但增幅要远低于原油，与历史数据对比来看，EIA6月份的库存降幅远超季节性表现，这显示了美国市场的原油基本面依然偏紧，目前美国炼厂开工率已经恢复至90%以上，近期航空消费的增加对整体炼厂开工率的提升有显著提振效应，此外，美国原油产量恢复依然缓慢，供需剪刀差加速库存去化，而由于炼厂开工率增加是由终端消费复苏所带来的，因此成品油裂解价差表现也相对稳健，而相对美国市场而言，亚太市场由于疫情的影响，成品油终端需求复苏缓慢，尚未形成消费端的正反馈，但由于炼厂开工率增加，目前对原油的采购力度也在增加，近期原油月差结构以及实货贴水均表现偏强。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜： 美元走强 铜价相对抗跌

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场，早市盘初大部分的持货商尚处于僵持阶段，平水铜始报于升水40元/吨左右，好铜报于升水70-80元/吨，市场乏人响应，9点半后，有个别月末最后缺票求票者低价求货，扰乱了市场的原有节奏，开启了降价的态势，很快市场出现了升水20-30元/吨的平水铜报价，成交略显回应，好铜随之降至升水50元/吨一线。当11点以后盘面开启加速下泻的态势时，现货观望者增加，现货升水甚至已有平水-升水10元/吨的报价，好铜也相应降至升水40元/吨附近，但相对来说好铜降幅有限，青睐度更有限。湿法铜早市即有贴水40-30元/吨的ESOX之类的流出，由于下游入市有限，再降幅度也相应受限。

观点：昨日，美元指数一度走高之92.20一线，而在此过程中铜价出现小幅回落，但程度较为有限，这样显示出铜品种目前基本面并无太大变化。虽然供应端近期或逐渐偏向宽裕，但对于下游而言，此前2季度因价格相对偏高而被抑制的采购在近期铜价回落之后或将被再度激发。因此在这样的情况下，铜价或仍维持相对震荡的格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：原油回调带动PTA回落，逸盛新材料一条线投产开车中

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，7月累库速率相对可控，TA加工费短期仍可；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性