Iron ore: Production restrictions have been implemented successively, and iron ore prices have fluctuated at low levels.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, both the open interest and trading volume of the most-active iron ore contracts dropped sharply and iron ore prices fluctuated at low levels. The closing price reported 1,165 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton, or 0.72%. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,485 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton, SSF reported 1,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between high and low grade products was 435 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the main ports’ transaction volume was 710,000 tons, a week-on-wek decrease of 190,000 tons/day.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices all the way. In May, the State Council investigated the high prices of bulk commodities, and the price of iron ore subsequently dropped, but now it has returned to and maintained at a relatively high point. In the short term, as approaching the celebrating of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the China Communist Party, the steel and coal sectors have started to stop production for 1-2 weeks and the impact on iron ore is expected to be relatively small. Looking ahead, the policy of restricting crude steel production across the country has begun to be gradually implemented, and the iron ore price in the second half of the year will most likely be weaker.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: go long positions of thread and hot-rolled coil and short positions of coke and iron ore (the raw material end)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments, etc.

Rubber: Demand is weak and raw material prices continue to decline.

On June 30, the most-active RU contract closed at 12,800 (-45) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,875 (-25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -325 yuan/ton (-255); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 113,794 (+3,048) lots, the short position was 163,094 (+3,565) lots, and the net short position was 49,300 (+517) lots.

On June 30, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,340 (-130) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,640 (-20) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,635 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,600 (-10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -4 (+71) yuan/ton.

As of June 25: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 183,534 (+930) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,820 (+190) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.1 (-1.5), cup lump 43 (-0.5), latex 48.5 (-1), RSS3 56.85 (-0.77).

As of June 24, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.13% (+7.21%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 58.95 +6.2(%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices remained weak. With weaker demand and gradual increase in output, the price of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas continued to decline. This week, due to domestic environmental inspections, tire factory overhauls have increased, and the continued decline in operating rates has made the market expected to further weaken the demand for raw materials. The domestic Qingdao port inventory announced this week continued to decline, but spot prices were still weak, reflecting unsatisfactory demand. Major overseas production areas have gradually increased the delivery volume, and the prices of raw materials have continued to decline. The expectation of the peak supply season is enhanced, and prices are operating at a weaker pace under the weak supply and demand pattern. When the price is low, it is not recommended to increase the short position too much.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia disagree over whether to increase production.

The JMMC meeting originally scheduled for Wednesday was postponed by one day. More market news indicates that the differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia have increased for the August production increase plan. Saudi Arabia tends to be cautious and slightly increase the production, while Russia hopes to increase production by a larger margin. Russia's considerations are mainly based on the impact of oil prices on domestic inflation. Saudi Arabia and Russia need more communication and negotiation. We expect that the final compromise between the two parties will result in a slight increase in production. We expect OPEC's production increase in August will not exceed 1 million barrels per day. The current market mainstream expectation is to increase production by about 500,000 barrels per day, but even if it increases production by 1 million barrels per day, it will be difficult to change the current situation in which supply exceeds demand in the crude oil market. The reasons why OPEC is difficult to increase production significantly are the following three points: 1. The uncertainty of Iranian oil's return to the market; 2. The current global stocks have not yet fallen to the pre-epidemic level; 3. The mutant strains bring uncertainty to the recovery of demand.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: The employment data in the US was better than expected, and copper prices strengthened.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the price of Shanghai copper market generally rose yesterday, and the spot market first declined and then rose. On the last trading day at the end of the month, most companies are already in the process of settlement, while most market participants were holding a wait-and-see attitude, reporting quotation at the original level. Standard-Grade Copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/ton, and High-Grade Copper stood at a premium of 60-80 yuan/ton. However, there are still some spot-exchangers whose quotations were very low, and a small number of companies that are still in the process of replenishment on the last day hold down prices to buy Standard-Grade Copper at a premium of 10-20 yuan/ton, and buy High-Grade Copper at a premium of 50 yuan/ton. After the second trading session, the inter-month stagnated at 100-120 yuan/ton for two weeks, and finally there was a change of about 200 yuan/ton again. This has aroused market attention and interest. Some traders entered the market to purchase goods, and soon it was difficult to find a source of goods with a premium of less than 20 yuan/ton. However, the transaction of Standard-Grade Copper with a premium of more than 40 yuan/ton was still difficult. High-Grade Copper has not yet been favored, and the spread with Standard-Grade Copper is only 10-20 yuan/ton. Hydro-Copper has fewer and firmer quotations due to lack of supply, and holders were reluctant to sell, and its spread with Standard-Grade Copper was only 10-20 yuan/ton.

Opinion: Yesterday, the ADP employment data in the United States recorded unexpected results, which made the US dollar index continue to rise, while copper prices were also boosted. However, as the current fundamentals have not changed much, copper prices have always presented a situation where the upper limit is under pressure and the lower limit is supported. Therefore, under such circumstances, copper prices are expected to remain volatile.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The production and sales of filament are sluggish, and there is no continuous replenishment of the terminal.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the accumulating rate in July is relatively controllable, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for the intertemporal reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿：限产陆续开启，价格低位震荡

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石主力合约放量减仓低位震荡，收于1165元/吨，跌8.5元/吨，跌幅0.72%。青岛港PB报1485元/吨涨3元/吨，超特报1050元/吨涨5元/吨，高低品价差435元/吨。昨日主港成交71万吨，环比减少19万吨/天。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。五月国务院喊话大宗商品的高价格，铁矿的价格随之回落，但目前再次回到并维持在相对价格高点。短期来看，临近百年党庆，钢铁、煤炭领域纷纷开启了1-2周的停产，预计对铁矿石的冲击较小。展望后市，全国各地的粗钢压产的政策已经开始逐步落地和推行，下半年的铁矿石价格大概率将偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨品种：多材空焦矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：需求偏弱，原料价格继续下行

30号，RU主力收盘12800（-45）元/吨，混合胶报价11875元/吨（-25），主力合约基差-325元/吨（-255）；前二十主力多头持仓113794（+3048），空头持仓163094（+3565），净空持仓49300（+517）。

30号，NR主力收盘价10340（-130）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1640（-20）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1635美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1600（-10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-4（+71）元/吨。

截至6月25日：交易所总库存183534（+930），交易所仓单174820（+190）。

原料：生胶片55.1（-1.5），杯胶43（-0.5），胶水48.5（-1），烟片56.85（-0.77）。

截止6月24日，国内全钢胎开工率为64.13%（+7.21%），国内半钢胎开工率为58.95%(+6.2%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价维持偏弱运行，在需求走弱以及产量逐步增加下，泰国主产区原料价格继续下行。本周因国内环保检查带来的轮胎厂检修增加，开工率继续下滑使得市场预期原料需求进一步走弱。本周公布的国内青岛港口库存继续下降，但现货价格仍表现较弱，反映需求不理想。海外主产区逐步放量，原料价格持续下行。供应旺季预期增强，供需格局偏弱下，价格偏弱运行。价格低位下，不建议过分追空。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等

原油：沙特俄罗斯对增产出现分歧

原本定于周三的JMMC会议推迟一天，更多市场消息表明对于8月份的增产计划，沙特与俄罗斯分歧增加，沙特倾向于谨慎小幅增产，而俄罗斯希望更大幅度的产量增加，俄罗斯的考量主要是基于油价对于国内通胀的影响，沙特与俄罗斯之间需要更多的沟通与谈判，我们预计最终双方妥协后的结果是小幅增产，我们预计欧佩克8月份增产幅度不会超过100万桶/日，当前市场主流预期是增产约50万桶/日，但即便是增产100万桶/日，也很难改变当前原油市场供不应求的现状，欧佩克难以大幅增产的原因仍在一下三点：1、伊朗石油重返市场的不确定性；2、当前全球库存尚未降至疫情前水平；3、变异毒株对需求复苏带来不确定性。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜： 美国方面就业数据好于预期 铜价一度走强

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日沪铜盘面翻红，现货市场先抑后扬存分歧。月末最后一个交易日，大多数企业已在结算中，交投观望，等待跨月，报价持坚，平水铜报价于升水50元/吨左右，好铜于升水60-80元/吨，但经不住仍有部分换现者报价甚低，有少量最后一天仍在补票中的企业压价收货于平水铜升水10-20元/吨，好铜升水50元/吨。第二节交易时段后，隔月价差在停滞于100-120元/吨2周后，终于再次有了200元/吨左右的变动，引起了市场的关注与兴趣，部分贸易商入市收货，很快升水20元/吨以下的货源已难觅，但升水40元/吨以上的平水铜成交存犹豫，好铜暂未受青睐，与平水铜价差仅10-20元/吨，湿法铜因货源少持货商惜售报价少而坚挺，与平水铜也仅有10-20元/吨的价差。

观点：昨日，美国方面ADP就业数据录得超预期之结果，使得美元指数继续走高，而铜价却也同样受到提振。不过由于目前基本面并无太大的改变，始终呈现上下均有压力及支撑的情况，故此在这样的情况下，铜价预计仍将维持震荡格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：长丝产销一般，终端未有持续补库

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，7月累库速率相对可控，TA加工费短期仍可；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性