Iron ore: Steel mills have increased overhauls, and demand is expected to weaken.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, both the open interest and trading volume of the most-active iron ore contracts dropped sharply and iron ore prices fluctuated throughout the day. The closing price reported 1,166 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton, 1.08%. Spot prices generally rose, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, SSF reported 1,055 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between high and low grade products was 440 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the trading volume of main ports stood at 992,000 tons, and the transaction volume rebounded slightly.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices all the way. In May, the State Council investigated the high prices of bulk commodities, and the price of iron ore subsequently dropped, but now it has returned to and maintained at a relatively high point. Yesterday, affected by the resumption of production in some Tangshan steel mills after the end of the party celebration, the demand for iron ore rebounded in the short term, and the price was on the strong side. However, at the same time, steel mills across the country have begun to undergo intensive maintenance due to annual production restrictions and low profits. Looking ahead, the national policy of restricting crude steel production is still the core factor determining the direction of iron ore prices. If the plan to reduce crude steel output throughout the year is strictly implemented, iron ore inventories are expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply, and iron ore prices in the second half of the year are expected to run weakly.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: go long positions of thread and hot-rolled coil and short positions of coke and iron ore (the raw material end)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments, etc.

Rubber: Raw material prices continue to fall, and the drag on the cost side continues.

On July 1, the most-active RU contract closed at 12,705 (-95) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,775 (-100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -280 yuan/ton (-45); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 116,051 (+2,257) lots, the short position was 165,759 (+2,665) lots, and the net short position was 49,708 (-408) lots.

On July 1, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,150 (-190) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,625 (-15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,625 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,585 (-15) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported 106 (-110) yuan/ton.

As of June 25: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 183,534 (+930) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,820 (+190) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.75 (-1.35), cup lump 42 (-1), latex 46.5 (-2), RSS3 54.73 (-2.12).

As of June 24, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.13% (+7.21%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 58.95 +6.2(%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price remained weak, and the price of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas continued to decline, which continued to drag the rubber cost side. This week, due to domestic environmental inspections, tire factory overhauls have increased, and the continued decline in operating rates has made the market expected to further weaken the demand for raw materials. The domestic Qingdao port inventory announced this week continued to decline, but spot prices were still weak, reflecting unsatisfactory demand. Major overseas production areas have gradually increased the delivery volume, and the prices of raw materials have continued to decline. The expectation of the peak supply season is enhanced, and prices are operating at a weaker pace under the weak supply and demand pattern. When the price is low, it is not recommended to increase the short position too much.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: The UAE objected, and the OPEC meeting was postponed.

The OPEC meeting was postponed due to the UAE’s objection at the last minute of the agreement. Judging from the demands of the UAE, the main reason is to hope to increase the production of more crude oil. The UAE is one of the few OPEC countries that has increased production capacity in recent years. At the same time, the UAE launched Murban crude oil futures this year with the intention of increasing regional pricing power. Therefore, compared with other countries, the UAE has more interest in increasing crude oil production. We believe that OPEC will still reach an agreement with a high probability, but may reach a compromise on the extent of the UAE's increase in production. However, as far as the current general direction is concerned, OPEC still adheres to the principle of cautiously increasing production slightly to prevent further production cuts due to the possible return of Iranian oil to the market.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: Copper prices maintain a volatile pattern.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the first day of July, and trading volume returned to normal. In addition, as the overall market supply was tight, market quotations had rebounded sharply. In the morning market yesterday, Standard-Grade Copper began to report at a premium of 80 yuan/ton, and then market buying showed a wait-and-see attitude. After some holders quickly adjusted their prices to a premium of 60-70 yuan/ton, a large number of traders entered the market due to wide fluctuations in the inter-month basis. As a result, the premiums and discounts recovered after they dropped to 60 yuan/ton, and it was difficult to find a source of 60-70 yuan/ton in the late market. Some holders even adjusted their prices to a premium of 90 yuan/ton in order to lead the market. High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper fluctuated within a narrow range yesterday, and High-Grade Copper basically reported a premium of 80-100 yuan/ton. Only Guixi Copper had a small amount of sources with the price of 110 yuan/ton in the late trading of the afternoon session. However, the market price was still high, resulting in limited market favor, and there were few actual transactions in the market. Under the guidance of brands such as BIRLA and UMMC, Hydro-Copper reported a premium of 30-50 yuan/ton. In the case that the overall downstream buying was not booming, the downstream basically maintains just-needed purchases.

Opinion: Yesterday, as of June 26, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States at the beginning of the week was 364,000, which continued to hit the lowest level since the week of March 14 last year. This made the US dollar index still maintain a relatively strong pattern. However, due to the limited changes in fundamentals, copper prices are basically still in a volatile pattern. The current situation is that the traditional peak season may gradually pass, but some of the depressed demand due to the previous high prices may also be postponed. If the price drops significantly, the increase in demand will appear again. However, due to the current strengthening of the US dollar and the slowdown in destocking, the upper limit of copper prices is also under pressure. Therefore, under such circumstances, the probability of copper prices maintaining a volatile pattern is relatively high.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Yishengdahua’s PTA device has been suspended for a short time, and investors can continue to pay attention to the implementation of the July maintenance.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the implementation of TA overhaul, the accumulating rate in July is relatively controllable, and TA processing fees are still acceptable in the short term; the accumulation rate of PX inventory from June to July is limited, and it is expected that PX processing fee compression space is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: under the circumstance that the price difference of 9-1 has rebounded sharply recently, waiting for the intertemporal reverse arbitrage opportunities.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿：钢厂检修增多，需求预期转弱

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石主力合约缩量减仓震荡，收于1166元/吨，涨12.5元/吨，涨幅1.08%。现货价格普涨，青岛港PB报1495元/吨涨10元/吨，超特报1055元/吨涨5元/吨，高低品价差440元/吨。昨日主港成交99.2万吨，成交量小幅回升。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。五月国务院喊话大宗商品的高价格，铁矿的价格随之回落，但目前再次回到并维持在相对价格高点。昨日受党庆结束后部分唐山钢厂陆续复产影响，铁矿石需求短期有所回升，价格偏强运行。但是与此同时，全国各地各钢厂受全年压产和利润较低的影响，开始出现密集检修的情况。展望后市，全国粗钢压产的政策仍然是决定铁矿石价格方向的最核心因素，若全年压减粗钢的计划严格落地执行，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，下半年的铁矿石价格预计将偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：中期看跌

跨品种：多材空焦矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：原料价格继续下行，成本端拖累延续

1号，RU主力收盘12705（-95）元/吨，混合胶报价11775元/吨（-100），主力合约基差-280元/吨（-45）；前二十主力多头持仓116051（+2257），空头持仓165759（+2665），净空持仓49708（-408）。

1号，NR主力收盘价10150（-190）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1625（-15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1625美元/吨（-100），印尼标胶1585（-15）美元/吨。主力合约基差106（-110）元/吨。

截至6月25日：交易所总库存183534（+930），交易所仓单174820（+190）。

原料：生胶片53.75（-1.35），杯胶42（-1），胶水46.5（-2），烟片54.73（-2.12）。

截止6月24日，国内全钢胎开工率为64.13%（+7.21%），国内半钢胎开工率为58.95%(+6.2%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价维持偏弱运行，泰国主产区原料价格持续下行，使得橡胶成本端拖累延续。本周因国内环保检查带来的轮胎厂检修增加，开工率继续下滑使得市场预期原料需求进一步走弱。本周公布的国内青岛港口库存继续降，但现货价格仍表现较弱，反映需求不理想。海外主产区逐步放量，原料价格持续下行。供应旺季预期增强，供需格局偏弱下，价格偏弱运行。但目前价格低位，不建议过分追空。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：阿联酋提出反对，欧佩克会议延期

由于阿联酋在协议达成的最后一刻提出反对，欧佩克会议延期，从阿联酋的诉求来看，主要是要增产更多原油，阿联酋是近些年来欧佩克国家中为数不多的产能增加的国家，同时阿联酋今年推出了穆尔班原油期货，意图增加区域定价权，因此相对其他国家有着更多利益诉求，我们认为欧佩克大概率仍将达成协议，但对阿联酋增产的幅度可能达成妥协，但就当前的大方向而言，欧佩克依然坚持谨慎增产小步慢跑的原则，防止因为伊朗石油重返市场而出现再度减产的情况。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜： 铜价维持震荡格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日为跨入7月第一天，交投回归，外加市场整体货源偏紧，市场报价大幅回升。早市平水铜始报于升水80元/吨后市场买盘呈现观望之势，部分持货商迅速调价至升水60-70元/吨后，因隔月基差宽幅波动，大量贸易商入市，升贴水探低60元/吨后回暖，尾盘市场已难觅60-70元/吨货源，部分持货商甚至调价至升水90元/吨欲引领市场方向。好铜与湿法铜日内窄幅波动，好铜基本报于升水80-100元/吨，仅有贵溪铜在尾盘听闻少量110元/吨货源，但盘面依旧较高，市场青睐度有限，市场难闻大量实际成交。湿法铜则在BIRLA，UMMC等品牌指引下整体报至升水30-50元/吨之间，在下游整体买兴不旺的情况下，基本维持刚需买盘。

观点：昨日，美国至6月26日当周初请失业金人数录得36.4万人，续刷去年3月14日当周以来新低，这使得美元指数依然维持相对偏强格局。不过由于基本面的变化依然有限，故此铜价基本仍处于震荡格局之中。目前的情况是，传统旺季或将逐渐过去，不过部分由于此前价格高企而被压抑的需求也可能会被延后，倘若价格出现较大幅度回落，则需求将会显现。但又由于目前美元的走强以及去库的放缓，铜价上方同样存在压力，故此在这样的情形下，铜价维持震荡格局的概率相对较大。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：逸盛大化装置短停，继续关注7月检修兑现情况

平衡表展望：TA检修全兑现背景下，7月累库速率相对可控，TA加工费短期仍可；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：9-1价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，聚酯长丝负反馈检修兑现力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性