Iron ore: The spot and futures prices of ferrous metal soared across the board, and iron ore prices were running on the strong side.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the most-active iron ore contracts rose close to the daily limit, closing at 1,225 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton, or 5.51%. Spot prices generally rose, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,520 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, SSF reported 1,077 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton, and the spread between high and low grade products was 443 yuan/ton. The main ports traded 1.038 million tons yesterday, a decrease of 2.5% from the previous week.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices all the way. The stable pig iron output in the first half of the year and the recovery of the overseas economy contributed to strong consumption of iron ore. If the consumption of iron ore at the raw material end cannot be restrained, the imbalance will continue. Yesterday, most of the steel companies in Tangshan resumed production of blast furnaces and began to implement the 30% production limit policy from July 2 to December 31. With the implementation of Tangshan's production restriction policy, the iron ore market was in high mood yesterday, but once the production restriction deepens, iron ore consumption is bound to be substantially suppressed. Looking ahead, the national policy of restricting crude steel production is still the core factor determining the direction of iron ore prices. If the plan to reduce crude steel throughout the year is strictly implemented, iron ore inventories are expected to continue to accumulate, and the supply and demand pattern will gradually turn into an oversupply. The iron ore price in the second half of the year is expected to run weakly.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bullish in the short term; under pressure in the medium term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments, etc.

Rubber: The Short significantly decreased their current holding positions, and futures prices rebounded.

On July 5, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,160 (+455) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,925 (+200) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -410 yuan/ton (-80); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 114,072 (-3,675) lots, the short position was 158,336 (-10,489) lots, and the net short position was 44,264 (+6,814) lots.

On July 5, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,690 (+385) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,650 (+35) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,640 (+35) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (+30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -306 (-194) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 2: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 184,286 (+752) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,650 (-170) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.19 (+0.3), cup lump 41.65 (0), latex 42.5 (-2), RSS3 53.55 (+0.5).

As of Jul 1, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 45.28% (-18.85%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 44.75% (-14.2%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the rubber futures price rebounded significantly after the short significantly decreased their current holding positions. From a fundamental point of view, with the end of the 100th anniversary celebration in China, it is expected that the tire plant operating rate will rebound again this week. At the same time, the narrowing of the RU non-standard spread also slowed down the market's hedging short power. The resurgence of the epidemic in Ruili, the main production area in Yunnan, yesterday also triggered the market’s postponement of future market expectations for the entry of index rubber into the country. The above factors have jointly promoted the upswing of market prices. Yesterday, the price of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas presented a mix of gains and losses, but the price of rubber remained stable, which may reflect the abundant supply of raw materials. The loose fundamentals of the rubber market have not been improved, and the rebound is expected to be limited. It is recommended that short-term operation is appropriate.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: The UAE has not yet compromised, and the implementation of OPEC's production increase has reached a deadlock.

As the UAE insisted on its request for baseline adjustment on Monday, it was still unable to reach a compromise with Saudi Arabia. From the Saudi perspective, once a higher production quota is given to the UAE, it means that other countries will also express relevant demands, which is equivalent to the invalidation of the production restriction agreement. At present, because there is no new consensus on limiting production, OPEC's production will continue at the level of July, and there will be no increase in production in August. Unless a new agreement is reached, the probability of oil prices soaring to $80/barrel will increase substantially. At present, the mediation of other countries such as the United States, Kuwait, and Russia is very critical. We believe that OPEC may still hold a new meeting around the end of August to discuss production restrictions. The current OPEC production impasse has increased the risk of excessive tightening of the oil market in the short term. The continued enlargement of the gap between supply and demand will further increase the speed of inventory destocking.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: In the case of strong oil prices, copper prices fluctuated upward.

Spot: According to SMM, yesterday's spot market quotations rose first and then fell. In the morning market, when there were not many sources of market flow, some holders reported a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton, which made the market transactions more active. However, as market prices continue to rise, coupled with the continued outflow of supply held by some holders, market quotations have fallen all the way down. Before the second period, the premium price stood at 160-170 yuan/ton, and the buying power of the market weakened, and most participants held a wait-and-see attitude. It wasn't until after the second period that there was a supply with a premium price of 150 yuan per ton, the buying interest picked up slightly. In the late trading, there was even an offer with a premium of 140 yuan/ton. In the morning market, due to the influence of Standard-Grade Copper, the price of High-Grade Copper began to report at a premium of 200-210 yuan/ton, but the market favor is still limited. As the quotations of Standard-Grade Copper continued to fall, High-Grade Copper had reported a premium of 170 yuan/ton in late trading, but there were still few large transactions. The overall supply of Hydro-Copper is still tight. Under the guidance of individual brands such as BMK, the price is quoted to a premium of 80-100 yuan/ton. However, as market prices continued to rise, the downstream was unwilling to buy at high premium prices, and it was difficult for buyers and sellers to reach a consensus.

Opinion: Yesterday was the US Independence Day, and market trading was relatively poor. Driven by the strengthening of crude oil prices, and affected by the positive feedback of inflation expectations, copper prices have also shown a trend of fluctuating upward. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the impact of tapering and the gradual influx of scrap copper, the supply side is gradually biased towards ample supply. But from the demand side, demand that was previously suppressed due to high prices has also recovered when copper prices have fallen. Therefore, for the current copper price, it may still maintain a volatile pattern.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Xinfengming's overhaul has been implemented, and the game between the Long and Short of the 09 contracts has intensified.

Balance sheet outlook: Balance sheet outlook: If TA overhauls are only partially implemented, there will be a turning point in inventory accumulation in mid-to-late July. If TA overhauls are fully implemented, the inventory will continue to accumulate in July, and the inflection point may be postponed again. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: The 09 contract holdings are much larger than the deliverable inventory, and there is greater emotional uncertainty. Therefor, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude. The inflection point of the inventory accumulation is postponed to late July or early August, as the open interest of 09 contracts gradually fall, the 9-1 spread may gradually peak and then fall.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of the negative feedback of the maintenance of polyester filament, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：黑色期现全线大涨，铁矿价格偏强运行

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石主力合约一路上涨接近涨停，收于1225元/吨，涨64元/吨，涨幅5.51%。现货价格普涨，青岛港PB报1520元/吨涨20元/吨，超特报1077元/吨涨22元/吨，高低品价差443元/吨。昨日主港成交103.8万吨，环比下降2.5%。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。上半年生铁产量稳定以及海外经济复苏都对铁矿形成强消费，如果不能抑制原料端的消费铁矿将会继续走向失衡。昨日唐山大部分钢企高炉复产，并开始执行7月2日-12月31日的限产30%的政策，随着唐山限产政策的落地，铁矿昨日情绪高涨，但一旦压产深化，铁矿消费势必将大幅被压制。展望后市，全国粗钢压产的政策仍然是决定铁矿石价格方向的最核心因素，若全年压减粗钢的计划严格落地执行，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，下半年的铁矿石价格预计将偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：短期偏强中期承压

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等。

橡胶：空头大幅减仓，期价反弹

5号，RU主力收盘13160（+455）元/吨，混合胶报价11925元/吨（+200），主力合约基差-410元/吨（-80）；前二十主力多头持仓114072（-3675），空头持仓158336（-10489），净空持仓44264（+6814）。

5号，NR主力收盘价10690（+385）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1650（+35）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1640美元/吨（+35），印尼标胶1605（+30）美元/吨。主力合约基差-306（-194）元/吨。

截至7月2日：交易所总库存184286（+752），交易所仓单174650（-170）。

原料：生胶片52.19（+0.3），杯胶41.65（0），胶水42.5（-2），烟片53.55（+0.5）。

截止7月1日，国内全钢胎开工率为45.28%（-18.85%），国内半钢胎开工率为44.75%(-14.20%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价在空头大幅减仓下，期价反弹明显。基本面来看，随着国内100周年大庆结束后，预计本周轮胎厂开工率将重新回升，同时，RU非标价差的缩窄也使得盘面套保空头力量减缓。昨天国内云南主产区瑞丽疫情再起，也引发了市场对于后期指标胶进入国内的推迟预期。以上因素共同推动了盘面价格的抬升。昨天泰国主产区原料价格涨跌互现，但胶水价格仍回来，或反映原料供应充裕。橡胶宽松的基本面没有改善，预计反弹空间有限，建议短线操作为宜。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：阿联酋尚未妥协，欧佩克增产陷入僵局

由于周一阿联酋坚持基线调整的诉求，仍无法与沙特达成折中方案，从沙特角度来看，一旦给予阿联酋更高的生产配额，意味着其他国家也将表达相关诉求，相当于限产协议流产，而当前由于对限产没有达成新的共识，因此欧佩克产量将延续7月水平，8月并不增产，除非达成新的协议，油价飙升至80美元/桶的概率大幅增加，当前来看其他国家如美国、科威特、俄罗斯的斡旋调节非常关键，我们认为欧佩克仍有可能在8月底左右召开新的会议讨论限产问题。当前欧佩克增产僵局增加了短期石油市场过度收紧的风险，供需缺口继续放大，库存去化速度将会进一步提高。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜： 油价走强的情况下 铜价震荡上行

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场报价呈现先扬后抑之势，早市在市场流出货源不多的行情下，部分持货商报至升水180-190元/吨，市场交投较为活跃，但随着盘面的持续走高，外加部分持货商手上货源持续流出，市场报价一路走低第二时段前已然听闻升水160-170元/吨报价，市场买盘力量减弱，多数参与者呈现观望之势，第二时段后升水150元/吨货源流出买兴才小幅回暖，尾盘甚至听闻升水140元/吨货源。好铜早市受平水铜影响始报于升水200-210元/吨，但市场青睐度有限，随着平水铜报价一路走低，好铜尾盘已然报至升水170元/吨依旧难闻大量成交。湿法铜整体货源依旧偏紧，在BMK等个别品牌指引下报至升水80-100元/吨，但盘面持续走高的情况下，下游不愿高升水接货，买卖双方难达共识。

观点：昨日为美国独立日，市场交投相对清淡，而在原油价格走强的带动下，受到通胀预期的正向反馈，铜价也呈现出了震荡走高的态势。而在基本面方面，目前TC价格持续走高，叠加抛储以及废铜逐渐涌出的影响，供应端逐渐偏向宽裕，但需求方面来看，此前因为价格高企而被抑制的需求也在铜价回落之际有所恢复，因此目前对于铜价而言，或仍将维持震荡格局之中。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：新凤鸣检修兑现，09合约博弈程度加剧

平衡表展望：TA检修兑现偏少则7月中下现累库拐点；若TA检修全兑现背景下，7月仍继续去库，累库拐点或再度后移；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：09合约持仓量大于可交割库存，挤虚盘博弈占主导，情绪不确定性较大，建议观望；累库拐点推迟至7月下8月初，届时09持仓亦逐步下降到位，届时9-1价差或逐步见顶回落。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。