Iron ore: Production restrictions stimulate speculative demand, and price trends have diverged.

Opinion and logic:

In terms of spot, the spot market fluctuated throughout the day, and most traders were less motivated to offer prices, while some traders were optimistic about the market outlook and took the initiative to purchase. The overall market demand was weak. Although steel mills had low inventories, mainstream fines are more favored.

In terms of futures, the most-active contracts of Liantie fluctuated around the high price level of 1250 yesterday. Due to the obvious structural contradictions, follow-up attention could be paid to changes in the spread between several deliverables.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead, the national crude steel production limit for the whole year is expected to come back. Once the production restriction starts, the supply of scrap steel will decrease simultaneously, and the molten iron needs to make up for the missing part of the scrap steel. The price direction of iron ore depends on the intensity of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the crude steel production restrictions are greater, iron ore stocks are expected to continue to accumulate. Therefore, the supply and demand pattern will gradually turn into an oversupply, and subsequent prices are expected to run weakly.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bullish in the short term; under pressure in the medium term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments, etc.

Rubber: Port inventory continued to fall, but its decline has weakened.

On July 6, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,380 (+220) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,075 (+150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -455 yuan/ton (+325); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 109,576 (-4,496) lots, the short position was 159,495 (+1,159) lots, and the net short position was 49,919 (+5,655) lots.

On July 6, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,830 (+140) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,665 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,650 (+10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,615 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -395 (-89) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 2: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 184,286 (+752) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,650 (-170) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.70 (+0.51), cup lump 42.2 (+0.55), latex 42.5 (0), RSS3 54.6 (+1.05).

As of Jul 1, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 45.28% (-18.85%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 44.75% (-14.2%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices continued to rebound. Driven by the continued rise in crude oil prices, the prices of the entire chemical sector generally rose. The domestic Qingdao port inventory announced yesterday continued the downward trend, but the decline has slowed down. From a fundamental point of view, with the end of the 100th anniversary celebration in China, it is expected that the tire plant operating rate will rebound again this week. At the same time, the narrowing of the RU non-standard spread also slowed down the market's hedging short power. Driven by futures market prices, raw material prices in Thailand stopped falling and rebounded yesterday, but the price of latex remained weak, which may reflect the abundant supply of raw materials. The loose fundamentals of the rubber market have not been improved, and the rebound is expected to be limited. It is recommended that short-term operation is appropriate.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: The OPEC deadlock brought uncertainty and oil prices fluctuated sharply.

Oil prices fluctuated violently last night, with fluctuations of more than US$3 per barrel. OPEC's failure to reach a new production limit agreement has brought more uncertainty to the market.The market is worried that the incident may re-lead the price war last year, but according to the August OSP announced by Saudi Arabia yesterday, there is no sign of a price war. And Saudi Aramco crude's official selling prices (OSPs) have been raised to varying degrees for the four major export regions. But it is worth noting that when the UAE’s opposition led to the failure to reach an agreement, the statements of other non-OPEC countries are also critical. Large consumer countries including the United States and India have expressed dissatisfaction with the recent rising oil prices or concerns about rising inflation, while China has shown an attitude of restraining commodity prices. We believe that oil prices are already closer to the tolerance limit of these major consumer countries, and in terms of the possible direction of subsequent negotiations, there is a higher probability that the production increase plan and the extension of the production reduction plan will be negotiated separately. It is possible that the production increase plan is still to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from 8 to 12 months, but the production reduction agreement will not be extended until April 2022. We believe that the current OPEC stalemate will not lead to a price war similar to that in April last year. The overall framework of the production restriction agreement has still not been destroyed, and the UAE is unlikely to withdraw from OPEC in the short term. At present, the upside risk of oil prices is still greater than the downside risk.

Strategy: neutrally, tend to be bullish in the short term; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: The U.S. dollar continues to rise, and copper prices are still in a volatile pattern.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market quotations opened higher and lowered again yesterday. As the market price continued to run above 69,500 yuan/ton, it continued to curb downstream buying interest. Some holders were eager to dump the goods and adjusted their prices drastically, and the premiums and discounts fell rapidly. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to report at a premium of 150-160 yuan/ton to test the buying interest in the market, but the absolute price was too high, resulting in fewer market inquiries. Subsequently, some holders quickly adjusted the price to a premium of 120-140 yuan/ton, which made some rigid-demand buying orders enter the market, but it was still difficult to see a large number of transactions. After the second period, the market gradually offered a supply with a premium of 110 yuan/ton, and even a small amount of quotations of 100 yuan/ton flowed out in the late trading. The new adjustment of prices has caused some traders to purchase a small amount of goods to increase the reserve inventory. So far, the market transaction had slightly improved. The price of High-Grade Copper continued to fall under the drag of Standard-Grade Copper, from a premium of 160 yuan/ton in the morning market all the way down to a premium of 120 yuan/ton, but the market was still difficult to see a large number of transactions. Guixi Copper even reported a premium of 130 yuan/ton, but the price-performance ratio was limited and the market was not favored. Hydro-Copper still reported a premium of 60-80 yuan/ton under the guidance of a few brands such as BMK. However, buyers and sellers still had large differences in price, and it was difficult to reach a consensus.

Opinion: Yesterday the US ISM data showed that the US economic recovery is not very optimistic, and the US bond yields have indeed maintained a weakening pattern. But perhaps due to the recent relatively better performance of the US economic data compared to non-US regions, the US dollar still showed a relatively strong trend yesterday. The copper price is under pressure because of this, and the fundamental changes are currently limited, making the supply gradually loose. However, if the copper price drops, the previously suppressed demand in the peak season may also resurface. Therefore, the judgment of the volatility of the copper price is still maintained.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The downstream bottle flakes experienced a decrease in production, and the production and sales of filaments fell slightly.

Balance sheet outlook: Balance sheet outlook: If TA overhauls are only partially implemented, there will be a turning point in inventory accumulation in mid-to-late July. If TA overhauls are fully implemented, the inventory will continue to accumulate in July, and the inflection point may be postponed again. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish (2) Intertemporal: The 09 contract holdings are greater than the deliverable inventory, and market sentiment is highly uncertain. Therefore, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude. The inflection point of the inventory accumulation is postponed to late July or early August, as the open interest of 09 contracts gradually fall, the 9-1 spread may gradually peak and then fall.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：限产刺激投机需求，炉料品种走势分化

观点与逻辑：

现货方面，全天现货震荡运行，贸易商报盘积极性一般，个别贸易商看好后市主动拿货。整体市场需求较弱，虽然钢厂库存偏低，但是更多青睐主流粉矿。

期货方面，昨日连铁主力合约围绕1250压力位一线高位震荡盘整。由于结构性矛盾明显，后续关注几种可交割品之间价差变化。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。展望后市，全年全国粗钢压产预期卷土重来，一旦压产开始，废钢的供给将同步下降，铁水需要弥补废钢的缺失部分，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，后续价格有望偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：短期偏强中期承压

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等。

橡胶：港口库存继续回落，降幅有所放缓

6号，RU主力收盘13380（+220）元/吨，混合胶报价12075元/吨（+150），主力合约基差-455元/吨（+325）；前二十主力多头持仓109576（-4496），空头持仓159495（+1159），净空持仓49919（+5655）。

6号，NR主力收盘价10830（+140）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1665（+5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1650美元/吨（+10），印尼标胶1615（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-395（-89）元/吨。

截至7月2日：交易所总库存184286（+752），交易所仓单174650（-170）。

原料：生胶片52.70（+0.51），杯胶42.2（+0.55），胶水42.5（0），烟片54.6（+1.05）。

截止7月1日，国内全钢胎开工率为45.28%（-18.85%），国内半钢胎开工率为44.75%(-14.20%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价延续反弹势头，在原油价格继续上涨带动下，整个化工板块价格都被带起来。昨天公布的国内青岛港口库存延续下降趋势，但降幅有所放缓。基本面来看，随着国内100周年大庆结束后，预计本周轮胎厂开工率将重新回升，同时，RU非标价差的缩窄也使得盘面套保空头力量减缓。在期货盘面价格的带动下，昨天泰国原料价格止跌反弹，但胶水价格仍表现疲弱，或反映原料供应充裕。橡胶宽松的基本面没有明显改善，预计反弹空间有限，建议短线操作为宜。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：欧佩克僵局带来不确定性，油价大幅震荡

昨日晚间油价剧烈震荡，波动幅度超过3美元/桶，欧佩克未能达成新的限产协议对市场带来不确定性，市场担忧可能会重新导致去年的价格战，但从昨天沙特公布的8月份的OSP来看，并没有价格战的迹象，沙轻OSP对四大出口地区均有不同程度上调，但值得注意的是，在阿联酋搅局导致协议无法达成之际，其他非欧佩克国家的表态也很关键，包括美国、印度等消费大国已经对近期持续攀升的油价表达了不满或者通胀上升的担忧，而中国在此间就表现出抑制大宗商品价格的态度，我们认为油价已经较为接近这些消费大国的忍耐上限，而就后续谈判可能的走向来看，有较大的概率将增产计划和延长减产计划分开谈判，有可能增产计划依然是8到12个月逐月增产40万桶/日，但减产协议暂时维持到2022年4月不延长，我们认为当前欧佩克的僵局并不会导致出现类似去年4月份的价格战，限产协议的整体框架仍然没有被破坏，而阿联酋短期也不太可能退出欧佩克，目前油价上行风险依然大于下行风险。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：美元走高 铜价目前仍陷震荡格局之中

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场报价再度高开低走，随着盘面持续在69500元/吨上方运行，持续抑制下游买盘，部分持货商急于甩货大幅调价，升贴水迅速下行。早市平水铜始报于升水150-160元/吨试探市场买兴，无奈绝对价过高，市场询盘者寥寥，部分持货商迅速调至升水120-140元/吨部分刚需买盘入市，但依旧难见大量成交。第二时段后市场逐渐听闻升水110元/吨货源，尾盘甚至有少量100元/吨货源流出，部分贸易买盘才少量扫货备库，市场交投略微好转。好铜则在平水铜拖累下报价持续走低，从早市升水160元/吨一路调至升水120元/吨，依旧难见大量成交，贵溪铜甚至报于升水130元/吨，无奈性价比有限，市场青睐度不佳。湿法铜则依旧在BMK等少量品牌的指引下报价维持坚挺于升水60-80元/吨，买卖双方在价格上分歧依旧较大，难达共识。

观点：昨日虽然美国方面ISM数据显示并不十分乐观，并且美债收益率也的确维持走弱格局，但或许是由于近期美国方面的经济数据表现相较于非美地区却有一定回升，故此昨日美元仍然呈现较为强劲走势。而铜价则是因此而承压，基本面方面目前变化有限，供应逐步趋于宽松，但若铜价回落，那么此前旺季被抑制的需求也有可能会再度涌现，故此目前仍然维持对铜价偏震荡的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：下游瓶片出现减产，长丝产销稍回落

平衡表展望：TA检修兑现偏少则7月中下现累库拐点；若TA检修全兑现背景下，7月仍继续去库，累库拐点或再度后移；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨。（2）跨期：09合约持仓量大于可交割库存，挤虚盘博弈占主导，情绪不确定性较大，建议观望；累库拐点推迟至7月下8月初，届时09持仓亦逐步下降到位，届时9-1价差或逐步见顶回落。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。