Iron ore: the price of thread and hot-rolled coil rose sharply, and iron ore followed its upward trend.

Opinion and logic:

In terms of spot, traders were less motivated to offer prices in the morning trading session, and some varieties rose by 5-10 yuan/ton in the afternoon. There were few inquiries from steel mills, and they only replenished inventory in a targeted manner. Suppose that some traders had obvious reluctance to sell, so that the spot transactions throughout the day were mostly rigid demand, speculative sentiment was poor, and overall transactions are relatively small.

In terms of futures, the most-active contracts of Liantie fluctuated around the 1250 price level yesterday. Due to the more prominent structural contradictions in iron ore, coupled with policy controls, iron ore trading sentiment has weakened, and the open interest of most-active contracts have shown a trend of decreasing.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead, the national crude steel production limit for the whole year is expected to come back. Once the production restriction starts, the supply of scrap steel will decrease simultaneously, and the molten iron needs to make up for the missing part of the scrap steel. The price direction of iron ore depends on the intensity of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the crude steel production restrictions are greater, iron ore stocks are expected to continue to accumulate. Therefore, the supply and demand pattern will gradually turn into an oversupply, and subsequent prices are expected to run weakly.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bullish in the short term; under pressure in the medium term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments, etc.

Rubber: Due to weak demand, the price of latex in Thailand has dropped significantly.

On July 7, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,415 (+35) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,075 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -540 yuan/ton (-85); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 111,152 (+1,576) lots, the short position was 156,309 (-3,186) lots, and the net short position was 45,157 (-4,762) lots.

On July 7, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,825 (-5) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,655 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,645 (-5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (-10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -431 (-36) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 2: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 184,286 (+752) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,650 (-170) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.10 (-0.6), cup lump 42.7 (+0.5), latex 42.5 (0), RSS3 53.82 (-0.78).

As of Jul 1, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 45.28% (-18.85%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 44.75% (-14.2%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices continued to rebound, and the domestic RU market price has risen above the domestic raw material cost price. Due to the recent decline in demand for Thai latex, the price has dropped significantly. Its current price has fallen below the price of cup lump, and its absolute price has also been at a year-on-year low in the past five years. As the market price rebounded, the RU non-standard spread rose again this week. The loose fundamentals of rubber market have not improved significantly, and the current rebound may be due to the weakening of market short forces and low valuations. However, the supply and demand drive is still weak, and the current rebound must be treated with caution.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: API crude oil inventories continued to decline.

Oil prices continued to fall yesterday, but neither API inventory data nor EIA monthly report data showed significant negative factors. Especially with API inventory data, crude oil inventories still fell more than expected. The current crude oil fundamentals are still relatively strong, and the inter-month spread has not fallen sharply following the unilateral crude oil price. We believe that there are several reasons for the current adjustment of oil prices: 1. The uncertainty caused by the failure to reach an unanimous resolution at the OPEC production restriction meeting. 2. The U.S. dollar appreciates. 3. Recently, shale oil producers have begun to hedge against oil prices next year. In general, we believe that the logic of supply growth not keeping up with demand recovery continues when OPEC has not increased production significantly, and the supply and demand gap cannot be filled in a short time.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: The market's premium and discount quotations maintained a relatively high level.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market quotations opened higher and lowered again yesterday. As the market price continued to run above 69,500 yuan/ton, it continued to curb downstream buying interest. Some holders were eager to dump the goods and adjusted their prices drastically, leading the premiums and discounts to fall rapidly. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to report at a premium of 150-160 yuan/ton to test the buying interest in the market, but the absolute price was too high, resulting in fewer market inquiries. Subsequently, some holders quickly adjusted the price to a premium of 120-140 yuan/ton, which made some rigid-demand buying orders enter the market, but it was still difficult to see a large number of transactions. After the second period, the market gradually offered a supply with a premium of 110 yuan/ton, and even a small amount of quotations of 100 yuan/ton flowed out in the late trading. The new adjustment of prices has caused some traders to purchase a small amount of goods to increase the reserve inventory. So far, the market transaction had slightly improved. The price of High-Grade Copper continued to fall under the drag of Standard-Grade Copper, from a premium of 160 yuan/ton in the morning market all the way down to a premium of 120 yuan/ton, but the market was still difficult to see a large number of transactions. Guixi Copper even reported a premium of 130 yuan/ton, but the price-performance ratio was limited and the market was not favored. Hydro-Copper still reported a premium of 60-80 yuan/ton under the guidance of a few brands such as BMK. However, buyers and sellers still had large differences in price, and it was difficult to reach a consensus.

In the early hours of this morning, there was no new news in the minutes of the Fed meeting. U.S. bond yields continued to fall, but the US dollar index maintained a strong momentum. In terms of fundamentals, the market is currently at the turn of the off-peak season, and there are still some previously suppressed demand that may emerge after the price drops. In addition, the current market premium and discount quotations have maintained a relatively high level, showing that the holders still have some willingness to keep the price up. Therefore, for copper prices, we maintain the judgment that the current copper prices will continue to fluctuate.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The rebound of the energy and chemical sector led to a rapid decline in the open interest of the 09 contract; the PTA processing fee was rapidly compressed.

Balance sheet outlook: If TA overhauls are only partially implemented, there will be a turning point in inventory accumulation in mid-to-late July. If TA overhauls are fully implemented, the inventory will continue to accumulate in July, and the inflection point may be postponed again. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; (2) Intertemporal: The open interest of the 09 contract has gradually decreased, and the speculative sentiment in the previous period has weakened. The market will gradually transition from a trading model in which the open interest of the 09 contract is larger than the volume of delivery warehouse order to a trading model when the inflection point of the accumulated inventory is expected to arrive in August. In terms of 9-1 spreads, the investment strategy suggests adopting reverse arbitrage when market prices are high.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：成材大涨 铁矿跟随

观点与逻辑：

现货方面，贸易商上午报盘积极性一般报价持平，午后部分品种涨5~10元/吨。钢厂询盘较差，只是针对性补库。假设个别贸易商惜售情绪明显，所以全天现货成交多为刚需，投机情绪较差，整体成交也较为冷清。

期货方面，昨日连铁主力合约围绕1250压力位一线高位震荡盘整。由于铁矿结构性矛盾较为突显，加上政策调控，盘面铁矿交投情绪减弱，呈现不断减仓态势。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。展望后市，全年全国粗钢压产预期卷土重来，一旦压产开始，废钢的供给将同步下降，铁水需要弥补废钢的缺失部分，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，后续价格有望偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：短期偏强中期承压

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等。

橡胶：需求拖累，泰国胶水回落明显

7号，RU主力收盘13415（+35）元/吨，混合胶报价12075元/吨（0），主力合约基差-540元/吨（-85）；前二十主力多头持仓111152（+1576），空头持仓156309（-3186），净空持仓45157（-4762）。

7号，NR主力收盘价10825（-5）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1655（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1645美元/吨（-5），印尼标胶1605（-10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-431（-36）元/吨。截至7月2日：交易所总库存184286（+752），交易所仓单174650（-170）。

原料：生胶片52.10（-0.6），杯胶42.7（+0.5），胶水42.5（0），烟片53.82（-0.78）。

截止7月1日，国内全钢胎开工率为45.28%（-18.85%），国内半钢胎开工率为44.75%(-14.20%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价延续反弹势头，国内RU盘面价格已经修复到国内原料价格成本之上。泰国胶水因近期需求的持续下挫，价格回落明显，目前价格已经跌倒低于杯胶，绝对价格也已经处于近五年的同比低位。现货价格表现偏弱，在盘面价格反弹之际，本周RU非标价差重新拉开。橡胶宽松的基本面没有明显改善，当下的反弹或因盘面空头力量的减缓以及估值低位，但供需驱动偏弱，须谨慎对待当下的反弹。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API原油库存继续下降

昨日油价继续下跌，但不管是API库存数据还是EIA月报均无显著利空，尤其是API库存数据，原油库存依然降幅超预期，当前原油基本面依然相对坚挺，月差并没有跟随原油单边价格出现大幅下挫，我们认为油价当前调整的几个原油有：1、欧佩克限产会议未达成导致的不确定性；2、美元升值；3、近期页岩油生产商开始对于明年油价进行对冲。总体而言，我们认为在欧佩克尚未大幅增产的情况下，供给增长更不上需求复苏的逻辑依然延续，供需缺口短时间内无法弥合。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：市场升贴水报价维持相对较高位置

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场报价再度高开低走，随着盘面持续在69500元/吨上方运行，持续抑制下游买盘，部分持货商急于甩货大幅调价，升贴水迅速下行。早市平水铜始报于升水150-160元/吨试探市场买兴，无奈绝对价过高，市场询盘者寥寥，部分持货商迅速调至升水120-140元/吨部分刚需买盘入市，但依旧难见大量成交。第二时段后市场逐渐听闻升水110元/吨货源，尾盘甚至有少量100元/吨货源流出，部分贸易买盘才少量扫货备库，市场交投略微好转。好铜则在平水铜拖累下报价持续走低，从早市升水160元/吨一路调至升水120元/吨，依旧难见大量成交，贵溪铜甚至报于升水130元/吨，无奈性价比有限，市场青睐度不佳。湿法铜则依旧在BMK等少量品牌的指引下报价维持坚挺于升水60-80元/吨，买卖双方在价格上分歧依旧较大，难达共识。

观点：今日凌晨，美联储会议纪要并无新意，美债收益率持续走低，但美元指数则是持续强劲势头。基本面方面，目前正处淡旺季交替之际，仍有部分此前被抑制的需求在价格回落之后或将显现，且目前市场升贴水报价维持相对较高，显示出持货商仍有些许挺价情绪，因此对于铜价格而言，维持目前偏震荡的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策。虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面。需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的观点。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：能化板块回调带动09合约持仓快速下降，PTA加工费快速压缩

平衡表展望：TA检修兑现偏少则7月中下现累库拐点；若TA检修全兑现背景下，7月仍继续去库，累库拐点或再度后移；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：09合约持仓量逐步下降，前期投机情绪有所放缓，从交易09合约的合约持仓量大于交割仓单量级，逐步过渡至交易8月累库拐点的预期，9-1价差建议逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。