Iron ore: The expectation of restricting production has strengthened, and the price of iron ore fell yesterday.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the most-active iron ore contracts fell all the way to close at 1,187.5 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, or 2.94%. Spot prices generally fell, and imported iron ore prices fell 10-33 yuan/ton throughout the day. Affected by news of some steel mills' adjustments to production plans, the market's expectations for crude steel production cuts have increased, and the demand for iron ore is expected to weaken. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,492 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton, SSF reported 1,058 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and the spread between high and low grad products was 434 yuan/ton. The trading volume at the main port yesterday was 758,000 tons, an increase of 8.1% from the previous week. Traders are actively shipping and reducing prices for promotion.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead, the national crude steel production limit for the whole year is expected to come back. Once the production restriction starts, the supply of scrap steel will decrease simultaneously, and the molten iron needs to make up for the missing part of the scrap steel. The price direction of iron ore depends on the intensity of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the crude steel production restrictions are greater, iron ore stocks are expected to continue to accumulate. Therefore, the supply and demand pattern will gradually turn into an oversupply, and subsequent prices are expected to run weakly.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bullish in the short term; under pressure in the medium term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation of the policy of limiting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments, etc.

Rubber: Spot prices were weak, and non-standard spreads widened slightly.

On July 8, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,395 (-20) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,050 (-25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -420 yuan/ton (+12); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 108,660 (-2,492) lots, the short position was 153,293 (-3,016) lots, and the net short position was 44,633 (-524) lots.

On July 8, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,725 (-100) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,655 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,650 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -340 (-90) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 2: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 184,286 (+752) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,650 (-170) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 51.50 (-0.6), cup lump 42.55 (-0.15), latex 43 (+0.5), RSS3 53 (-0.82).

As of Jul 1, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 45.28% (-18.85%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 44.75% (-14.2%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range and the rebound pattern continued. Due to increased supply and weak demand, the price of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas remained weak. The current futures market rebounded only because of the weakening of short positions, and the fundamentals are temporarily unsupported. The recent narrowing of the spread between September and January RU futures contracts is more conducive to the short rolling. The spot price performance this week was weak, and when the market price went up, the RU non-standard spreads widened again. The loose fundamentals of rubber market have not improved significantly, and although the valuation is at a low level, the weak drive of supply and demand may limit the room for rebound.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: The number of infections in the UK has increased, but the impact on oil consumption is limited.

The recent epidemic situation in the United Kingdom and other countries is also one of the important reasons for the adjustment of oil prices. As of the 7th, the number of new infections in the UK that day has exceeded 30,000, and the number of new infections has exceeded 20,000 for the seventh consecutive day. However, British Prime Minister Boris recently announced that he will decide to unblock the UK in the near future. The implementation of the decision to unblock the United Kingdom is mainly due to the higher vaccination rate. At present, more than 60% of adults in the UK have been vaccinated with 2 shots, which is close to the safety line of 70%. Therefore, because the vaccination is relatively smooth, the increase in the number of infections will lead to a very low possibility of re-closing the city. On the contrary, the recent escalation of epidemic prevention measures in some Asia-Pacific countries is also related to the slower local vaccination. Therefore, the logic of the recovery of oil consumption in Europe and the United States has not yet been destroyed, but we still need to pay attention to whether the number of subsequent infections continues to increase and whether the epidemic prevention measures are adjusted.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: Fundamental changes are limited, and copper prices maintain a volatile pattern.

Spot: According to SMM, there was less trading in the spot market yesterday, and the market price remained fluctuating at high levels. This had caused the buying forces to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and under the stalemate between buyers and sellers, there were few large transactions in the market. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 160 yuan/ton, but there were still few transactions in the market. Although some holders took the initiative to adjust the price to 150 yuan/ton, the buying still maintained a wait-and-see attitude. A small number of holders with spot exchange needs adjusted the price again to a premium of 140 yuan/ton, and these sources were immediately sold out. After the second trading session, there is almost no source of goods with a premium of 140 yuan/ton in the market. High-Grade Copper quotations were relatively strong, with a premium of 160-180 yuan/ton in the morning market. After the second period, ENM and other brands reported a premium of 150 yuan/ton, bringing a small amount of transactions. The supply of Hydro-Copper market was still tight: ESOX, BMK and other brands reported a premium of 80-100 yuan/ton, and even if the quotation was reported with a premium of 70 yuan/ton in the end of the trading session, there was still no large number of transactions in the market.

Opinion: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note continued to fall yesterday, and the market and even Fed officials are still divided on when the Fed will take action to reduce the bond purchase plan, which also caused the U.S. dollar index to fall. In terms of fundamentals, changes are relatively limited. Copper prices are expected to remain temporarily volatile under the conditions of upstream supply pressure and downstream buying support.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: All three new production lines used to produce new materials of Yisheng have been successfully put into use; PTA processing fees have dropped rapidly.

Balance sheet outlook: After all the new production capacity of new materials of Yisheng is put into use, the inflection point of PTA's inventory accumulation may be restored to around mid-to-late July. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; (2) Intertemporal: The open interest of the 09 contract has gradually decreased, and the speculative sentiment in the previous period has weakened. The market will gradually transition from a trading model in which the open interest of the 09 contract is larger than the volume of delivery warehouse order to a trading model when the inflection point of the accumulated inventory is expected to arrive in August. In terms of 9-1 spreads, the investment strategy suggests adopting reverse arbitrage when market prices are high.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：压产预期增强,铁矿盘整回落

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石主力合约一路下跌收于1187.5元/吨，跌36元/吨，跌幅2.94%。现货价格普跌，进口铁矿全天价格下跌10-33，受部分钢厂调整生产计划消息影响，市场对粗钢减产预期增强，对矿石需求预期走弱。青岛港PB报1492元/吨跌33，超特报1058元/吨跌25，高低品价差434元/吨。昨日主港成交75.8万吨，环比上涨8.1%。贸易商积极出货，降价促销。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。展望后市，全年全国粗钢压产预期卷土重来，一旦压产开始，废钢的供给将同步下降，铁水需要弥补废钢的缺失部分，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，后续价格有望偏弱运行。

策略：

单边：短期偏强中期承压

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等。

橡胶：现货价格偏弱，非标价差小幅扩大

8号，RU主力收盘13395（-20）元/吨，混合胶报价12050元/吨（-25），主力合约基差-420元/吨（+12）；前二十主力多头持仓108660（-2492），空头持仓153293（-3016），净空持仓44633（-524）。

8号，NR主力收盘价10725（-100）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1655（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1650美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1605（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-340（-90）元/吨。截至7月2日：交易所总库存184286（+752），交易所仓单174650（-170）。

原料：生胶片51.50（-0.6），杯胶42.55（-0.15），胶水43（+0.50），烟片53（-0.82）。

截止7月1日，国内全钢胎开工率为45.28%（-18.85%），国内半钢胎开工率为44.75%(-14.20%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价窄幅波动，反弹格局延续。因供应增加，需求疲弱，泰国主产区原料价格仍维持偏弱走势。目前期货盘面仅仅因为空头力量的减缓而带来反弹，基本面暂无支撑。近期RU期货9月及1月合约的价差收窄更有利于空头移仓。本周现货价格表现偏弱，在盘面价格上行之际，RU非标价差重新拉开。橡胶宽松的基本面没有明显改善，估值低位，但供需驱动偏弱，或限制反弹空间。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：英国感染人数增加，但对石油消费影响有限

近期英国等国家的疫情形势也是油价调整的重要原因之一，截至7号，英国当天的新增感染人数已经超过3万人，连续7日新增感染人数超过2万人，不过近期英国首相鲍里斯宣布将在近期决定让英国全面解封，英国解封的底气主要来自较高的疫苗接种率，英国目前超过六成的成年人已经接种了2针疫苗，这理七成的安全线近在咫尺，因此由于疫苗接种较为顺畅，感染人数增加导致再度封城的可能性非常低，而相反近期部分亚太国家的防疫措施不断升级，也与当地疫苗接种较慢相关，因此目前欧美石油消费复苏的逻辑目前暂未受到破坏，但仍需关注后续感染人数是否持续增加以及防疫措施是否调整。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：基本面变化有限 铜价维持震荡格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场交投清淡，盘面维持高位震荡导致买盘力量维持观望之势，买卖双方僵持之下，市场难闻大量成交。早市平水铜始报于升水160元/吨后市场难闻成交，部分持货商主动调价至升水150元/吨后依旧维持观望之势，少量有换现需求持货商再度调价至升水140元/吨，少量货源入市即秒，第二时段后就难闻升水140元/吨。好铜报价则相对坚挺早市坚挺于升水160-180元/吨，第二时段后ENM等品牌报至升水150元/吨少量成交。湿法铜市场货源依旧偏紧，市场少量ESOX，BMK等品牌报至升水80-100元/吨指引市场，尾盘听闻升水70元/吨依旧难闻大量成交。

观点：昨日十年期美债收益率继续走低，市场乃至美联储官员对于美联储何时将会采取缩减购债计划的动作仍存在分歧。这也使得美元指数出现回落，而在基本面方面，变化则是相对有限。铜价在上有供应压力，下游买盘支撑的情况下料仍暂时呈现震荡格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的观点。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：逸盛新材料新增产能三条线均已投产，加工费快速回落

平衡表展望：逸盛新材料新增产能全兑现后，PTA累库拐点或恢复至7月中下附近；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：09合约持仓量逐步下降，前期投机情绪有所放缓，从交易09合约的合约持仓量大于交割仓单量级，逐步过渡至交易累库拐点的预期，9-1价差建议逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。