Iron ore: The production restriction policy is becoming increasingly clear, and the supply and demand of iron ore is gradually tightening.

With the gradual implementation of crude steel production restriction policies in some regions last week, the raw material end such as iron ore was directly affected. As of the close of last Friday, the iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,163 yuan/ton, a week-on-week drop of 19.5 yuan/ton, or 1.65%. In terms of spot, last Friday, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,470 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) reported 1,799 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; SSF reported 1,040 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; Yangdi Fines reported 1,173 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Platts 62% index reported 216.5 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars/ton. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction of iron ore at the main port last week was 831,000 tons, a decrease of 7.6% from the previous week. Under the influence of production restrictions, steel mills are cautious in purchasing, and market transactions are sluggish.

In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.906 million tons, a decrease of 2.817 million tons from the previous week; the total shipment from Australia was 18.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.712 million tons from the previous week; of which 15.581 million tons were shipped from Australia to China, a reduction of 22,000 tons; Brazil’s total shipment volume was 6.806 million tons, a decrease of 1.105 million tons from the previous week. The overall shipment volume of oversea iron ore on the supply side decreased slightly, and there was no significant change on the iron ore supply side.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.26%, an increase of 20.31% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 12.37%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization was 86.00%, an increase of 4.99% week-on-week, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.08%; the profit rate of steel mills was 74.03%, a week-on-week increase of 2.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.35%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2892 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 132,900 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 188,500 tons.

In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel statistics, the national inventory of imported iron ore from 45 ports across China reported 124.576 million tons, an increase of 2.2274 million tons from the previous week; the average daily port congestion volume reported 2.8543 million tons and an increase of 272,000 tons. Among them, Australian ore reported 64.935 million tons, an increase of 1.542 million tons, Brazil’s figure was 34.188 million tons, an increase of 513,000 tons; trade ore reported 67.962 million tons, an increase of 1.941 million tons; pellets reported 3.862 million tons, a decrease of 80,300 tons; iron ore concentrate reported 9.027 million tons, an increase of 205,000 tons; lump ore reported 18.452 million tons, an increase of 352,000 tons; coarse iron powder reported 93.235 million tons, an increase of 1.751 million tons; there were 138 ships across ports, a decrease of 5.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. As the production restriction policy in some regions becomes more and more clear, the national crude steel production restriction is expected to come back throughout the year. Once the production restriction starts, the supply of scrap steel will decrease simultaneously, and the molten iron needs to make up for the missing part of the scrap steel. The price direction of iron ore depends on the intensity of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the crude steel production restriction is stronger, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the supply and demand pattern will gradually turn into an oversupply. In the future, iron ore prices are expected to run weakly, and we need to continue to follow up and pay attention to the production restriction policy.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Cautiously bullish in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity and policy orientation of the production limit on the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Low-season demand performance at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

3. The epidemic situation may aggravate, etc.

Rubber: Disturbances on the supply side caused rubber prices to rebound from low levels.

The rubber futures price rebounded at a low level last week, mainly because the market shorts left after the non-standard spreads narrowed, which led to the weakening of market shorts. In the middle of last week, due to the resurgence of the epidemic in Ruili, Yunnan, strict control measures made the market worried that the amount of rubber imports into Yunnan will be blocked in the later period. Disturbances on the short-term supply side have made market prices stronger.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of July 9 was 188,158 tons (+3872), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 174,550 tons (-100). Recently, the price of rubber is still weak, and the non-standard spread is at a low to mid-to-low level, resulting in an insignificant increase in warehouse receipts. As of July 4, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, but the decline has slowed down.

According to Zhuo Chuang's understanding, the domestic spot market is weak at the rigid demand side, so it appears that the old full latex is rising with the market trend, while the mixed rubber is declining due to less market demand. Last weekend, some tire factories replenished their positions when facing relatively lower market prices, but the actual transactions weakened again, and the industry's mentality was generally bearish. Buying interest in the US spot market declined compared with the previous week, the trading volume was sluggish, and buying side was mostly holding the wait-and-see attitude. It is understood that the downstream had some purchase orders when the market fell in the previous week, but the overall purchase willingness was weak last week. U.S. cargoes are mostly dragged down by low raw materials and prices have generally weakened. In addition, weak domestic rigid demand has made it difficult for prices to rise. In addition, some tire factories mainly replenish their stocks when facing relatively lower market prices based on mixed spot (CNY), so the transactions in US dollar cargoes are sluggish. As of last weekend, the synthetic rubber reported a premium of -25 yuan/ton (+200), and the rebound in rubber prices last week narrowed the spread.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of July 8, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 43.6% (-1.68%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 44.51 (-0.24%). The operating rate last week did not pick up as expected, or it reflects the current weak demand.

Opinion: Under the disturbance of the supply side, the price of Shanghai rubber rebounded from a low level last week. If the strict control of the epidemic in Ruili, Yunnan takes a long time, it may bring about a phased reduction in imports, but only the delay in imports into China. In the medium term, the real impact is not significant. From the perspective of spreads, the non-standard spreads caused by the market rebound last week expanded again, reflecting that demand is still weak. And judging from the tire factory operating rate last week, it did not pick up as scheduled, reflecting the current deviation in raw material demand. From the perspective of later fundamentals, domestic production will gradually pick up, and major overseas production areas will also enter the peak season. In the short term, we may need to pay attention to the possibility of a slowdown in imports caused by the continuous increase in ocean freight. Domestic imports have dropped significantly in May, and if it continues to affect the reduction of domestic port stocks in the later period, it may bring about short-term price fluctuations. At present, demand is showing off-season characteristics, domestic demand is weakening from the previous week, and exports are still weak due to tight container conditions. Given the weak mid-term supply and demand expectations, the rubber price rebound is expected to be limited.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points:

1. Domestic supply may increase sharply;

2. Demand continues to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts;

3. Funds might become tight.

Crude oil: OPEC fails to increase production as scheduled, and the gap between supply and demand will intensify.

OPEC still failed to reach an agreement last week, resulting in the inability to increase production as scheduled in August. However, the market still misunderstood the results of the OPEC meeting. The current stalemate will not cause the OPEC alliance to fall apart, nor will it lead to a price war similar to last year, and the UAE will not withdraw from OPEC in the short term. OPEC is still negotiating internally, and there is still a high probability of increasing production from September in the future. First of all, the production restriction agreement reached in April last year is still valid. That is, its validity period will continue until March next year, but the upper limit of production quotas in various countries cannot be increased, so the production restriction agreement is still effective for the production constraints of various countries.

Secondly, the announcement of the Saudi OSP at the beginning of last week also confirms this point. The official discount for Saudi light crude oil has been revised to varying degrees for various export regions. This is in stark contrast to Saudi Arabia’s sharp reduction of OSP during the price war in April last year. Therefore, the current market situation is completely different from last year.

From the perspective of the outcome of the OPEC meeting in the future, we believe that there are several possibilities in the future:

1. The countries will reach an agreement, but the content of the agreement will be adjusted, such as separating the production increase plan and the extension of the production restriction plan. This is also an important requirement of the UAE, that is, it is not opposed to increasing production. However, if the production restriction agreement is to be extended, the UAE's production benchmark must be increased. This result may cause the current pace of increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month to remain unchanged, but the production restriction agreement will only last until the end of March next year.

2. Production quotas in various countries will be readjusted. Due to the disruption in the UAE, it is unlikely to adjust the UAE's production benchmark alone. It is expected that the quota ceilings of various countries will be adjusted. Such a result may lead to a monthly increase of more than 400,000 barrels per day, but the time limit for the production limit agreement may extend to the end of next year.

3. The parties cannot compromise, and OPEC is still unable to reach a new production increase plan, making the existing agreement continue. This result is most beneficial to oil prices.

We believe that the probability of the first possibility is still the highest, because the changes to the existing proposal are minimal, and it is much more troublesome to re-negotiate the production quotas of countries. Judging from the impact of OPEC’s failure to reach an agreement at this meeting, crude oil fundamentals in the third quarter of this year will be more advanced than previously expected. It is conservatively estimated that the supply and demand gap in the third quarter of this year will reach nearly 3 million barrels per day, which may be the largest supply and demand gap since 2009. Global inventories will be destocked more quickly. If OPEC stands still, the only thing that can improve the fundamentals is the return of Iranian oil to the market. But this can only happen in the fourth quarter of this year at the earliest, so the strong fundamental trend has not been reversed but has been further strengthened. We believe that the adjustment of oil prices is temporary, and the overall trend is still prone to rising but not falling.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: The central bank's RRR cut may have a certain supporting effect on the market in the short term.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of July 9 was between 68,510 yuan/ton and 69,700 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper was between 125 yuan/ton and 185 yuan/ton. In the first half of last week, the copper price was basically in a narrow range of fluctuations, but the premium and discount continued to show a low recovery state, showing that the holders still have a certain sentiment of supporting price, which may make the copper price still have a certain degree of support. Affected by the sudden announcement of a RRR cut by the central bank on Friday, copper prices showed a substantial increase.

Opinion:

short term:

Last week, it can be found that the TC price was still showing a continuous upward trend, and it had reached the level of US$47.08/ton. And the current price of by-product sulfuric acid has also maintained a strong upward trend, reaching a level of 649 yuan/ton. Therefore, the previous relatively meagre profits of refineries should be eased to a great extent. Therefore, as far as the supply side is concerned, the pressure on prices may increase. However, as far as the demand side is concerned, as prices fall this week, we can still see that the holders raise the premium and discount to support prices. This also shows that the demand that was suppressed in the previous second quarter due to high copper prices may recover to some extent in the early third quarter. Therefore, under the current circumstances, there is pressure on the upper limit of the copper price and support on the lower limit. From the perspective of fundamentals, copper prices are expected to remain dominated by shocks for the time being. However, as the central bank suddenly announced a 0.5% cut in the RRR last Friday, it may have a certain supporting effect on the market in the short term.

Medium and long term:

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Yisheng's new equipment was put into production, and the processing fee dropped.

Balance sheet outlook: After all the new production capacity of new materials of Yisheng is put into use, the inflection point of PTA's inventory accumulation may be restored to around mid-to-late July. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; (2) Intertemporal: The open interest of the 09 contract has gradually decreased, and the speculative sentiment in the previous period has weakened. The market will gradually transition from a trading model in which the open interest of the 09 contract is larger than the volume of delivery warehouse order to a trading model when the inflection point of the accumulated inventory is expected to arrive in August. In terms of 9-1 spreads, the investment strategy suggests adopting reverse arbitrage when market prices are high.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：限产政策日渐清晰 铁矿供需逐步偏紧

上周随着部分地区粗钢压产政策的逐步落地，铁矿等原料端受到直接影响，截至上周五收盘，铁矿2109合约收于1163元/吨，周环比跌19.5元/吨，周跌幅1.65%。现货方面，上周五青岛港PB粉报1470跌22，卡粉1799跌15，超特粉报1040跌18，杨迪粉1173跌20，普氏62%指数报216.5美元/吨，跌1.7美元/吨。成交方面，上周铁矿石主港日均成交83.1万吨，环比下降7.6%，在限产影响下钢厂采购谨慎，市场成交一般。

供应方面，Mysteel澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2490.6万吨，环比减少281.7万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1810万吨，环比减少171.2万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1558.1万吨，环比减少2.2万吨；巴西发货总量680.6万吨，环比减少110.5万吨。供应端外矿整体发运量略有减少，铁矿石供应端无明显变化。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率78.26%，环比上周增加20.31%，同比去年下降12.37%；高炉炼铁产能利用率86.00%，环比增加4.99%，同比下降7.08%；钢厂盈利率74.03%，环比增加2.60%，同比下降20.35%；日均铁水产量228.92万吨，环比增加13.29万吨，同比下降18.85万吨

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45港进口铁矿库存12457.6，环比增222.74；日均疏港量285.43增27.2。分量方面，澳矿6493.5增154.2，巴西矿3418.8降51.3，贸易矿6796.2增194.1，球团386.23降8.03，精粉902.7增20.5，块矿1845.2增35.2，粗粉9323.5增175.1；在港船舶138降5条。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。随着部分地区的压产政策越来越清晰，全年全国粗钢压产预期卷土重来，一旦压产开始，废钢的供给将同步下降，铁水需要弥补废钢的缺失部分，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，后续价格有望偏弱运行，还需继续跟进压产政策。

策略：

单边 ：短期谨慎偏多

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向，成材端淡季需求表现，疫情加重等。

橡胶：供应端扰动，胶价低位反弹

上周橡胶期价低位反弹，主要因非标价差缩窄后，盘面空头离场，带来盘面空头力量减缓，周中因为云南瑞丽疫情再起，严格的管控措施使得市场担忧后期进入到云南区域的橡胶进口量将受阻，短期供应端扰动，带来盘面价格偏强。

国内交易所总库存截止7月9为188158吨（+3872），期货仓单量174550吨（-100），近期胶价仍偏弱，非标价差处于中偏低水平，造成最近仓单增加不明显。截至7月4日，青岛保税区库存继续小幅回落，但降幅有所放缓。

上周现货价格重心环比上移。据卓创了解，国内现货市场刚需表现薄弱，因此呈现出老全乳跟随盘面上涨，而混合胶因市场需求清淡而下滑。听闻前一周末部分轮胎厂逢低补仓，但上周实际成交再次走弱，业者心态普遍偏空。美金现货市场买气较前一周下滑，场内交投清淡，买盘多以观望为主。据了解，下游在前一周行情下跌之时有部分采购，上周买采意愿较弱。美金船货多受原料低位拖累而整体走弱，加之国内刚需薄弱导致价格上涨困难，且部分轮胎厂逢低补货多以人民币混合现货为主，因此美金船货成交一般。截至上周末，橡胶升水合成胶-25元/吨（+200），上周橡胶价格的反弹带来价差缩窄。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止7月8日，全钢胎企业开工率43.6%（-1.68%），半钢胎企业开工率44.51（-0.24%）。上周开工率并未如期回升，或反映当下需求的疲弱。

观点：在供应端的扰动下，上周沪胶价格低位反弹。云南瑞丽的疫情如果严控时间较长，则可能带来阶段性进口量减少，但仅仅是进口量的延后进入国内，中期来看，实质影响并不大。价差的角度来看，上周盘面反弹带来的非标价差重新扩大，反映需求仍偏弱，且从上周轮胎厂开工率来看，并没有如期回升，反映出当下的原料需求偏差。后期基本面来看，国内产量将逐步回升，海外主产区也步入旺季，短期节奏上或需关注海运费持续上涨带来的进口量放缓的可能，5月国内进口量已经明显下降，后期如果继续影响国内港口库存的减少，则可能带来短期价格的波动。需求呈现淡季特征，国内需求环比走弱，出口则受制于集装箱紧张表现仍然偏弱。中期供需预期偏弱下，预计胶价反弹空间受限。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：欧佩克未能如期增产，供需缺口将加剧

上周OPEC仍未能达成协议，导致8月份无法如期增产，但市场仍对欧佩克会议结果有较多误读，当前的僵局并不会导致欧佩克联盟分崩离析，也不会导致类似去年的价格战，而阿联酋也不会短期内退出欧佩克，欧佩克内部仍在协商中，未来仍有较大概率从9月份开始增产。首先去年4月份达成的限产协议依然有效，即其有效期仍将延续至明年3月，只是各国生产配额上限无法提高，因此限产协议对于各国的产量约束依然有效。其次从上周周初公布沙特的OSP也印证了这一点，沙特轻质原油的官价贴水对于各个出口地区均有不同程度上修，这与去年4月价格战时期沙特大幅下调OSP形成鲜明对比，因此当前的市场形势与去年完全不同。从未来欧佩克会议的结果走向来看，我们认为未来有以下几种可能性：1、各国达成一致，但协议内容有所调整，如将增产计划和延长限产计划分开，这也是阿联酋的重要诉求，即不反对增产，但如果要延长限产协议必须要提高阿联酋的产量基准，这种结果可能导致当前每月增产40万桶/日的节奏不变，但限产协议只延续到明年3月底；2、各国产量配额重新调整，由于阿联酋的搅局，单独调整阿联酋的产量基准可能性不高，预计各国配额上限都会有一定调整，这样的结果可能导致每月增产幅度超过40万桶/日，但限产协议的时间有可能延续至明年年底；3、各方无法妥协，欧佩克仍旧无法达成新的增产计划，现有协议继续维持，这种结果对油价最利多。我们认为第一种概率依然最高，因为对现有提案的改动最小，要重新议定各国的生产配额就要麻烦得多。从欧佩克本次会议无果的影响来看，今年三季度的原油基本面比此前预期的要更加进展，保守估计今年三季度的供需缺口将会达到近300万桶/日，这可能是2009年以来最大的供需缺口，全球库存将会更加快速的去化，如果欧佩克按兵不动，当前能够改善基本面格局的只有伊朗石油重返市场，但这最早也是今年四季度的故事，因此强劲的基本面趋势并没有发生逆转反而进一步强化，我们认为油价的调整是暂时性的，整体走势仍旧易涨难跌。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：央行降准 短时内或对行情有一定支撑作用

现货情况：

据SMM讯，7月9日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于68,510元/吨至69,700元/吨，平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于125元/吨至185元/吨之间。上周前半周铜价基本处于窄幅震荡的格局之中，不过升贴水持续呈现低位回升的状态，显示出持货商仍存在一定挺价情绪，这或许会使得铜价下方依然存在一定支撑。而周五则是受到央行突然宣布降准的影响，铜价呈现较大幅度走强。

观点：

短期：

上周，可以发现TC价格仍呈现持续走高的态势，目前已经达到47.08美元/吨的水平，并且目前副产品硫酸的价格也同样维持着强劲的涨势，目前已经达到649元/吨的水平，炼厂此前利润相对微薄的情况应该可以得到很大程度的缓解，故此就供应端而言，对于价格的压力或将愈发增大。不过就需求端而言，本周在价格回落之际，还是可以看到持货商抬高升贴水从而挺价的情况，故此也显示出此前2季度由于铜价格高企而被抑制的需求或许在3季度初期会有一定恢复。因此在当前情况下，铜价上存压力下有支撑，从基本面情况来看，预计暂时仍以震荡格局为主。但由于央行在上周五突然宣布降准0.5个百分点，短时内或将对行情存在一定支撑作用。

中长期：

宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 国内交仓情况

PTA：逸盛新装置投产，加工费回落

平衡表展望：逸盛新材料新增产能全兑现后，PTA累库拐点或恢复至7月中下附近；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：09合约持仓量逐步下降，前期投机情绪有所放缓，从交易09合约的合约持仓量大于交割仓单量级，逐步过渡至交易累库拐点的预期，9-1价差建议逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。