Iron ore: Global supply fluctuates at a high level, and foreign demand is at a high level.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, China's domestic iron ore futures and spot prices both rebounded slightly. The most-active iron ore contracts rose and then fell, closing at 1,188.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton, or 1.45%. The spot price showed an increase ranging from 2-17 yuan/ton. Qingdao Port Pb fines closed at 1,480 yuan/ton, low-grade SSF reported 1,042 yuan/ton, the spread between medium and high grades is still at an absolute historical high. Yesterday, the port spot transaction was 1.014 million tons, an increase of nearly 18% from the previous week, but the overall transaction was still at a normal low level. In terms of data, the total arrival volume of China’s 45 ports reached 22.76 million tons, a decrease of 2.367 million tons from the previous week. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 11.069 million tons, an increase of 453,000 tons from the previous week. According to Mysteel statistics, Australia and Brazil shipped 23.759 million tons of iron ore, a week-on-week decrease of 1.147 million tons. Australia’s total shipments were 16.235 million tons, a decrease of 1.865 million tons from the previous week. Among them, Australia sent 12.77 million tons to China, a decrease of 2.811 million tons from the previous week and Brazil’s total shipments amounted to 7.524 million tons, an increase of 718,000 tons from the previous week. The total global shipping volume was 30.027 million tons, a decrease of 1.759 million tons from the previous week. Arrivals and shipments have decreased simultaneously, and there will be no supply pressure in the short term.

Recently, China's domestic steel companies have intensified their production cuts, and the market has different attitudes towards iron ore. Optimists believe that the current iron ore spot inventory is still in a healthy state, structural contradictions are still prominent, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. On the contrary, pessimists believe that if domestic production restrictions are strengthened, then the output of molten iron will drop significantly, which will affect iron ore demand. In addition, the current iron ore price is at a high level in recent years, and the ore supply will be relatively guaranteed. Both the long and short sides have their own basis, but the market seems to be more optimistic. The reason is that even if the output of crude steel is reduced, the first step is to adjust the addition of scrap steel by steel companies. The shutdown of the blast furnace is a backup option, so the actual demand for ore in the medium and short term will not deteriorate rapidly.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, and high domestic and foreign consumption has been supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead to the future, under the overall production restriction pattern, it is difficult for iron ore prices to have the strength to rise as the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the price direction of iron ore depends on the strength of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the production restriction of crude steel is strong, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply, and subsequent prices are expected to run weaker. In the short term, due to the large basis difference, the iron ore market price is expected to move closer to the spot price under the pattern that the price of the thread and hot-rolled coil is rising steadily. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short-term, but do not increase open interest at high prices, and a small amount of positions could be established when market prices are low.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Cautiously bullish in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity and policy orientation of the production limit on the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Low-season demand performance at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

3. The epidemic situation may aggravate, etc.

Rubber: Driven by the market, raw material prices rebounded slightly.

On July 12, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,310 (-5) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,000 (-50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -235 yuan/ton (+105); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 103,537 (-2,420) lots, the short position was 154,803 (-30) lots, and the net short position was 51,266 (+2,390) lots.

On July 12, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,670 (+10) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,655 (-5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,640 (-15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -272 (-5) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 9: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 188,158 (+3,872) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,550 (-100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.7 (+0.19), cup lump 42.75 (+0.35), latex 43.8 (+0.30), RSS3 52.3 (+0.07).

As of Jul 8, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 43.6% (-1.68%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 44.51% (-0.24%).

Opinion: Driven by the favorable domestic RRR cut last weekend, the price of rubber dropped from high. Driven by market prices, the spot market rebounded yesterday and overseas raw material prices also rebounded. Last Thursday, after the spread between RU September and January contract narrowed to less than 1,000 yuan/ton, the spread widened again, which may mean that the short-term logic of the rolling has been completed. Last week, the RU non-standard spreads also widened following the rebound in futures prices, reflecting the weak demand in reality. Coupled with the gradual increase in supply during peak seasons, the loose fundamentals of rubber market have not improved significantly. Rubber prices may return to a weak pattern, but in terms of the absolute value of overseas raw material prices, they are still at a low valuation. In addition, the recent rains will also bring about the firmness of raw material prices, which may also limit the downside of rubber prices.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have yet to resolve their differences.

From the perspective of the outcome of the OPEC meeting in the future, we believe that there are several possibilities in the future:

1. The countries will reach an agreement, but the content of the agreement will be adjusted, such as separating the production increase plan and the extension of the production restriction plan. This is also an important requirement of the UAE, that is, it is not opposed to increasing production. However, if the production restriction agreement is to be extended, the UAE's production benchmark must be increased. This result may cause the current pace of increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month to remain unchanged, but the production restriction agreement will only last until the end of March next year.

2. Production quotas in various countries will be readjusted. Due to the disruption in the UAE, it is unlikely to adjust the UAE's production benchmark alone. It is expected that the quota ceilings of various countries will be adjusted. Such a result may lead to a monthly increase of more than 400,000 barrels per day, but the time limit for the production limit agreement may extend to the end of next year.

3. The parties cannot compromise, and OPEC is still unable to reach a new production increase plan, making the existing agreement continue. This result is most beneficial to oil prices.

We believe that the probability of occurrence of the first situation is still the highest, because the changes to the existing proposal are minimal, and it is much more troublesome to re-negotiate the production quotas of countries.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: Changes in fundamentals are limited, and copper prices remain stable.

Spot: According to SMM news, yesterday's spot market premiums and discounts showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In the morning market, the inter-month basis once reached about contango 180-200 yuan/ton, which attracted some arbitrageurs to enter the market for anti-arbitrage opportunities. In addition, due to tight supply in the market, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 270-280 yuan/ton in the morning session, and market transactions were active. However, downstream consumption was suppressed under the pattern of high market prices and high premiums, and there were few large purchases in the market, which led to the contraction of the basis narrowed to around contango 130 yuan/ton after the second period. Although the premiums and discounts fell rapidly to 240-260 yuan/ton afterwards, it is still difficult to see the bidders. Even if there is a small amount of 220 yuan/ton quotation in the late trading, it is still difficult to have a large number of transactions. The supply of High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper market is relatively scarce, leading to the overall price stabilization. High-Grade Copper reported a premium of 260-300 yuan/ton, but the limited price/performance ratio led to few large transactions. Hydro-Copper is quoted at a premium of 180-220 yuan/ton, but there are few downstream buyers, and the market has limited trading activity.

Opinion: The market was relatively calm yesterday, and the US dollar index fell slightly. Due to the news of the central bank's RRR cut last weekend, although the price of non-ferrous metals, including copper, received some support, the effort was relatively limited. Compared with the equity market, the performance of different varieties in the non-ferrous metals sector basically still revolves around their respective fundamentals. Copper varieties are currently under pressure from ample supply, but at the same time, there is a current rebound in demand that was suppressed in the previous second quarter due to high prices. Therefore, the current copper price still maintains a volatile pattern.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The production and sales level of polyester is still low, and processing fees are still weak.

Balance sheet outlook: The inflection point of PTA inventory accumulation will gradually appear in mid-to-late July, making PTA enter the re-accumulation cycle; PTA processing fees may be weaker in the future. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish; (2) Intertemporal: The open interest of the 09 contract has gradually decreased, and the speculative sentiment in the previous period has weakened. The market will gradually transition from a trading model in which the open interest of the 09 contract is larger than the volume of delivery warehouse order to a trading model when the inflection point of the accumulated inventory is expected to arrive in August. In terms of 9-1 spreads, the investment strategy suggests adopting reverse arbitrage when market prices are high.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：全球供应高位波动，国外需求处于高位

观点与逻辑：

昨日，国内铁矿石期现货均呈小幅反弹走势，铁矿石主力合约冲高回落收于1188.5元/吨，涨17元/吨，涨幅1.45%。现货价格呈现2-17不等涨幅，主流低品粉矿以中高品粉矿涨幅居前，青岛港Pb粉收盘报1480元/吨，低品超特报1042元/吨，中高品价差仍处绝对历史高位，昨日港口现货成交101.4万吨，环比增长近18%，不过整体成交仍处正常偏低水平。数据方面，中国45港到港总量2276.0万吨，环比减少236.7万吨；北方六港到港总量为1106.9万吨，环比增加45.3万吨。Mysteel澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2375.9万吨，环比减少114.7万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1623.5万吨，环比减少186.5万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1277.0万吨，环比减少281.1万吨；巴西发货总量752.4万吨，环比增加71.8万吨。全球发运总量3002.7万吨，环比减少175.9万吨。到港、发运同步下降，短期内并无供应压力。

近期国内钢企减产压产愈演愈烈，市场对矿的态度也不尽相同，乐观者认为，当前铁矿现货库存仍处良性，且结构性矛盾仍比较突出，供应又难以显著增加；相反，悲观者认为，如果国内压产力度升级，那么铁水产量将会显著下降从而影响铁矿石需求，另外就是当前矿价处于近年高位，矿山供应量会有较大保障。多空双方各有根据，但市场似乎更加认可偏乐观的观点，原因在于，即使减少粗钢产量，第一步也是钢企通过调整废钢的添加来实现，停高炉是后备选项，所以中近期矿石的实际需求状况还不会迅速恶化。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，国内外的高消费一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。就此展望后市，在整体压产的格局下，矿价难以具备成材上涨的想象力，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，后续价格有望偏弱运行。短期内，由于基差较大，在成材价格稳中上行的格局下，铁矿石盘面价格有望像现货价格靠拢的潜力，所以短期偏多对待，但切勿追多，逢低少量建仓即可。

策略：

单边 ：短期谨慎偏多

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向，成材端淡季需求表现，疫情加重等。

橡胶：盘面带动，原料价格小幅回升

12号，RU主力收盘13310（-5）元/吨，混合胶报价12000元/吨（-50），主力合约基差-235元/吨（+105）；前二十主力多头持仓103537（-2420），空头持仓154803（-30），净空持仓51266（+2390）。

12号，NR主力收盘价10670（+10）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1655（-5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1640美元/吨（-15），印尼标胶1605（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-272（-5）元/吨。截至7月9日：交易所总库存188158（+3872），交易所仓单174550（-100）。

原料：生胶片50.7（+0.19），杯胶42.75（+0.35），胶水43.8（+0.30），烟片52.3（+0.07）。

截止7月8日，国内全钢胎开工率为43.6%（-1.68%），国内半钢胎开工率为44.51%(-0.24%）。

观点：在上周末国内全面降准利好带动下，胶价冲高回落。在盘面价格带动下，昨天现货市场有所回暖，海外原料价格也有所反弹。上周四RU盘面9月与1月合约价格缩窄到1000元/吨以内之后，价差又重新拉大，或意味着短期的换月逻辑已经完成。上周RU非标价差也跟随期价反弹而拉大，反映现实需求偏弱。叠加旺季供应的逐步增加，橡胶宽松的基本面没有明显改善。胶价或重回弱势格局，但就海外原料价格绝对值来看，估值低位，且近期降雨天气也将带来原料价格的坚挺，或也限制了下行空间。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：沙特与阿联酋尚未消除分歧

从未来欧佩克会议的结果走向来看，我们认为未来有以下几种可能性：1、各国达成一致，但协议内容有所调整，如将增产计划和延长限产计划分开，这也是阿联酋的重要诉求，即不反对增产，但如果要延长限产协议必须要提高阿联酋的产量基准，这种结果可能导致当前每月增产40万桶/日的节奏不变，但限产协议只延续到明年3月底；2、各国产量配额重新调整，由于阿联酋的搅局，单独调整阿联酋的产量基准可能性不高，预计各国配额上限都会有一定调整，这样的结果可能导致每月增产幅度超过40万桶/日，但限产协议的时间有可能延续至明年年底；3、各方无法妥协，欧佩克仍旧无法达成新的增产计划，现有协议继续维持，这种结果对油价最利多。我们认为第一种概率依然最高，因为对现有提案的改动最小，要重新议定各国的生产配额就要麻烦得多。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：基本面变化有限 铜价维稳

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场升贴水呈现先扬后抑之势，早市隔月基差一度达到contango180-200元/吨左右吸引部分套利商入市反套收货，外加市场货源偏紧，早市平水铜始报于升水270-280元/吨，市场成交活跃，但下游消费在盘面高位外加高升水格局下，难见大量买盘，导致第二时段前后随着隔月基差收窄至contango130元/吨左右，早市套利收货商开始大量出货，升贴水迅速下泄至升水240-260元/吨却依旧难见接盘者，尾盘甚至听闻少量220元/吨报价依旧难闻大量成交。好铜和湿法铜市场货源较为稀缺，导致整体报价企稳，好铜报至升水260-300元/吨之间，但性价比有限难闻大量成交，湿法铜则报至升水180-220元/吨，下游采购者寥寥，市场交投活跃度有限。

观点：昨日市场相对平静，美元指数小幅回落，而上周末央行降准的消息，虽然一度基于包括铜在内的有色金属板块些许支撑，但力度相对有限，与权益市场相比，有色金属板块内品种表现基本仍围绕各自的基本面运行。而铜品种目前面临供应偏向宽裕的压力，但同时又有此前2季度因为价格高企而被抑制的需求在当下的回升，故此目前铜价仍然维持震荡格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：聚酯产销仍一般，加工费仍偏弱

平衡表展望：PTA累库拐点7月中下附近逐步出现，进入重新累库周期，PTA加工费或偏弱；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：09合约持仓量逐步下降，前期投机情绪有所放缓，从交易09合约的合约持仓量大于交割仓单量级，逐步过渡至交易累库拐点的预期，9-1价差建议逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。