Iron ore: Futures outperformed the spot market, and the basis has narrowed slightly.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, China's domestic iron ore futures and spot prices rose simultaneously, and futures outperformed the spot market. The most-active iron ore contract pulled up to 1,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.5 yuan/ton, or 3.07%. Spot prices showed a range of 2-20 increases. Qingdao Port Pb fines closed at 1,490 yuan/ton, and Yangdi Fines reported 1,200 yuan/ton. The spread between medium and high grade products is still at an absolute historical high. Yesterday, the port spot transaction was 956,000 tons, down 5.7% from the previous week, and the overall transaction was still at a normal low level.

Recently, China's domestic steel companies have intensified their production cuts, and the market has different attitudes towards iron ore. Optimists believe that the current iron ore spot inventory is still in a healthy state, structural contradictions are still prominent, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. On the contrary, pessimists believe that if domestic production restrictions are strengthened, then the output of molten iron will drop significantly, which will affect iron ore demand. In addition, the current iron ore price is at a high level in recent years, and the ore supply will be relatively guaranteed. Both the long and short sides have their own basis, but the market seems to be more optimistic. The reason is that even if the output of crude steel is reduced, the first step is to adjust the addition of scrap steel by steel companies. The shutdown of the blast furnace is a backup option, so the actual demand for ore in the medium and short term will not deteriorate rapidly.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, and high domestic and foreign consumption has been supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead to the future, under the overall production restriction pattern, it is difficult for iron ore prices to have the strength to rise as the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the price direction of iron ore depends on the strength of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the production restriction of crude steel is strong, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply, and subsequent prices are expected to run weaker. In the short term, due to the large basis difference, the iron ore market price is expected to move closer to the spot price under the pattern that the price of the thread and hot-rolled coil is rising steadily. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short-term, but do not increase open interest at high prices, and a small amount of positions could be established when market prices are low.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: Cautiously bullish in the short term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The policy of restricting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments data, etc.

Rubber: Port inventory continued to decline.

On July 13, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,315 (+5) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,000 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -390 yuan/ton (+155); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 104,536 (+999) lots, the short position was 153,518 (-1,285) lots, and the net short position was 48,892 (-2,284) lots.

On July 13, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,610 (-60) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,650 (-5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,645 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -217 (+55) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 9: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 188,158 (+3,872) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,550 (-100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.07 (-0.63), cup lump 43 (+0.25), latex 44.5 (+0.70), RSS3 52.14 (-0.16).

As of Jul 8, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 43.6% (-1.68%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 44.51% (-0.24%).

Opinion: The latest port inventory data released show that the bonded zone inventory rebounded slightly, but the general trade inventory continued to decline, leading to a continued downward trend in total port inventory. In general, driven by the warmer market sentiment, futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. At present, due to weak demand for rubber and the expected increase in supply during peak seasons, the supply and demand pattern is weak, but the continuous decline in domestic raw material costs and port inventory also supports rubber prices. The loose fundamentals of the rubber market have not improved significantly, but in terms of the absolute value of overseas raw material prices, rubber valuation is still at a low level. In addition, the recent rains will also bring about the firmness of raw material prices, which may also limit the downside of rubber prices.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: The IEA monthly report said that the excess inventory has been eliminated.

Due to the spread of delta virus, the current global epidemic situation has deteriorated, and some Asia-Pacific countries such as South Korea and Indonesia have strengthened epidemic prevention measures. From the traffic congestion index, the economic performance of major economies has declined to varying degrees. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, the impact of the epidemic has been relatively weakened. Although refined oil consumption may be affected to varying degrees in the short term, the recent steady increase in global refinery operating rates and the continuous increase in demand for crude oil have continued to expand the supply and demand gap, and the average supply and demand gap in the third quarter will reach 3 million barrels per day. Therefore, the escalation of epidemic prevention in some regions will not have a major impact on the current fundamentals of crude oil, and the overall situation of shortage of supply continues.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: The U.S. dollar rose, and copper prices fell slightly.

Spot: According to SMM news, yesterday's spot market premiums and discounts once again showed a trend of dropping from high. Market prices continued to run at a high level, coupled with narrow fluctuations in the inter-month basis, resulting in limited market activity. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 250-260 yuan/ton to test market activity, but there were very few buyers, resulting in relatively low transactions in the market. Some holders adjusted the price to 220-240 yuan/ton in exchange for spot, but it was still difficult to see a large number of transactions. Only a small number of traders entered the market for purchases until a small amount of goods with a premium of 200-210 yuan/ton appeared in the market around the second period. The price in the late trading market returned to a premium of 220 yuan/ton, which brought both buyers and sellers back to the see-saw pattern. The quotation of High-Grade Copper fell rapidly following the price of Standard-Grade Copper, and after reporting a premium of 270 yuan/ton in the morning session, it quickly fell back to 240 yuan/ton. A small amount of Guixi Copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/ton, but the downstream buying did not improve, and there were few active transactions in the market. For Hydro-Copper, a small amount of SPENCE, CMCC and other brands have flowed in. With the rigid demand for buying downstream, the overall price of Hydro-Copper fell slightly to 150-180 yuan/ton.

Opinion: The bleak results of the US Treasury auction yesterday made the yield of US Treasury rise sharply, and the US dollar index also showed a strong upward trend. However, in this process, the copper price reaction was still relatively "calm", with only a slight fall. This may also show that the current macroeconomic impact on the pricing of copper prices is gradually weakening, and there are not too many changes in the fundamentals. Under such circumstances, copper prices are expected to remain volatile.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations

4. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: At the end of July, Fuhua Group expects to carry out rounds of inspections; PTA prices rebounded again.

Balance sheet outlook: The inflection point of PTA inventory accumulation will gradually appear in mid-to-late July, making PTA enter the re-accumulation cycle. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations: (1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish; (2) Intertemporal: The open interest of the 09 contract has gradually decreased, and the speculative sentiment in the previous period has weakened. The market will gradually transition from a trading model in which the open interest of the 09 contract is larger than the volume of delivery warehouse order to a trading model when the inflection point of the accumulated inventory is expected to arrive in August. In terms of 9-1 spreads, the investment strategy suggests adopting reverse arbitrage when market prices are high.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：期货强于现货，基差略有收窄

观点与逻辑：

昨日国内铁矿石期现货同步上涨，期货强于现货表现，铁矿石主力合约流畅拉涨至1225元/吨，涨36.5元/吨，涨幅3.07%。现货价格呈现2-20不等涨幅，主流低品粉矿以中高品粉矿涨幅居前，青岛港Pb粉收盘报1490元/吨，杨迪报1200元/吨，中高品价差仍处绝对历史高位，昨日港口现货成交95.6万吨，环比下降5.7%，整体成交仍处正常偏低水平。

近期国内钢企减产压产愈演愈烈，市场对矿的态度也不尽相同，乐观者认为，当前铁矿现货库存仍处良性，且结构性矛盾仍比较突出，供应又难以显著增加；相反，悲观者认为，如果国内压产力度升级，那么铁水产量将会显著下降从而影响铁矿石需求，另外就是当前矿价处于近年高位，矿山供应量会有较大保障。多空双方各有根据，但市场似乎更加认可偏乐观的观点，原因在于，即使减少粗钢产量，第一步也是钢企通过调整废钢的添加来实现，停高炉是后备选项，所以中近期矿石的实际需求状况还不会迅速恶化。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，国内外的高消费一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。就此展望后市，在整体压产的格局下，矿价难以具备成材上涨的想象力，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，后续价格有望偏弱运行。短期内，由于基差较大，在成材价格稳中上行的格局下，铁矿石盘面价格有望像现货价格靠拢的潜力，所以短期偏多对待，但切勿追多，逢低少量建仓即可。

策略：

单边：短期谨慎偏多

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：港口库存延续下滑

13号，RU主力收盘13315（+5）元/吨，混合胶报价12000元/吨（0），主力合约基差-390元/吨（+155）；前二十主力多头持仓104536（+999），空头持仓153518（-1285），净空持仓48982（-2284）。

13号，NR主力收盘价10610（-60）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1650（-5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1645美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1605（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-217（+55）元/吨。截至7月9日：交易所总库存188158（+3872），交易所仓单174550（-100）。

原料：生胶片50.07（-0.63），杯胶43（+0.25），胶水44.5（+0.70），烟片52.14（-0.16）。

截止7月8日，国内全钢胎开工率为43.6%（-1.68%），国内半钢胎开工率为44.51%(-0.24%）。

观点：公布的最新港口库存数据显示，保税区库存小幅回升，但一般贸易库继续下滑，导致港口总库存延续下滑走势。总体在市场氛围偏暖带动下，期货价格窄幅波动，目前橡胶因需求偏弱以及旺季供应增加预期，供需格局偏弱，但国内原料成本以及港口库存的持续下降对胶价亦产生支撑。橡胶宽松的基本面没有明显改善，但就海外原料价格绝对值来看，估值低位，且近期降雨天气也将带来原料价格的坚挺，或也限制了下行空间。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：IEA月报称库存过剩已经消除

由于delta病毒的扩散，目前全球疫情形势有所恶化，部分亚太国家如韩国、印尼等收紧了防疫措施，从交通拥堵指数来看，主要经济体均有不同程度的下滑，但就当前的情况来看，疫情的影响已经相对弱化，虽然成品油消费在短期内可能有不同程度的印象，但近期全球炼厂开工率稳步提升，原油需求持续增加，供需缺口继续放大，三季度平均供需缺口将会达到300万桶/日，因此部分地区的防疫升级并不会对原油当前基本面产生较大的影响，整体供不应求的格局依然延续。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：美元走高 铜价略微回落

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场升贴水再度呈现高报低走之势，盘面高位运行，外加隔月基差窄幅整理使市场交投活跃度有限。早市平水铜始报于升水250-260元/吨试探市场，但买盘询价者寥寥，市场难闻成交，部分持货商调价至升水220-240元/吨甩货换现依旧难见大量成交，第二时段前后少量升水200-210元/吨货源流出，部分贸易商才少量入市采购。尾盘市场重新回到升水220元/吨以上报价，买卖双方重回拉锯格局。好铜报价跟随平水铜迅速回落，早市报至升水270元/吨后迅速回落至升水240元/吨，甚至贵溪铜也听闻少量升水240元/吨货源，但下游买兴不见好转，市场难闻活跃成交。湿法铜听闻少量SPENCE，CMCC等品牌流入，下游维持刚需买盘下整体价格小幅回落至升水150-180元/吨。

观点：昨日美国国债竞拍结果惨淡，使得美债收益率大幅走高，另外美元指数也同样出现强劲走高的态势，不过在此过程中，铜价反应仍相对“淡定”，只是出现了小幅的回落。这或许也显示出目前宏观影响对于铜价的定价正在逐渐减弱，而基本面方面又并无太多的变化发生，因此在这样的情况下，铜价料仍将维持震荡格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3. 2季度需求是否能达预期 4.政策风险加剧

PTA：7月底福化轮检预期，PTA再度回升

平衡表展望：PTA累库拐点7月中下附近逐步出现，进入小幅累库周期，关注周频库存是否已兑现累库拐点；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：09合约持仓量逐步下降，前期投机情绪有所放缓，从交易09合约的合约持仓量大于交割仓单量级，逐步过渡至交易累库拐点的预期，9-1价差建议逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。