Iron ore: The supply and demand of the thread and hot-rolled coil have improved, and the demand for raw materials is still good.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, China's domestic iron ore futures and spot prices both fell to a certain extent, and the futures market performed better than the spot. The main iron ore contract fell slightly by 5.5 yuan/ton, and closed at 1,219.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%. The spot price showed a range of 5-16 decline. Qingdao Port Pb fines closed at 1,475 yuan/ton, Yangdi Fines reported 1,200 yuan/ton, SSF reported at 1,040 yuan/ton. The spread between medium and high-grade products had narrowed slightly, but it was still at an absolute historical high. Yesterday, the port spot transaction volume was 1.05 million tons, an increase of 9.8% from the previous week, and the overall transaction was still at a normal low level.

Recently, domestic steel companies have been increasing their efforts to reduce production, and the market has different views on iron ore. The reason lies in whether production restrictions will significantly compress iron ore demand. However, the mainstream view is that even if the output of crude steel is reduced, the first step will be achieved by adjusting the addition of scrap steel by steel companies. The blast furnace shutdown is a backup option, so the actual demand for iron ore in the near and mid-term will not deteriorate rapidly, but the room for rising is limited. If the production restriction is strong, then it will involve the reduction of blast furnace production, that is, there will be a substantial surplus of iron ore.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, and high domestic and foreign consumption has been supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead to the future, under the overall production restriction pattern, it is difficult for iron ore prices to have the strength to rise as the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the price direction of iron ore depends on the strength of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the production restriction of crude steel is strong, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply, and subsequent prices are expected to run weaker. In the short term, due to the large basis difference, the iron ore market price is expected to move closer to the spot price under the pattern that the price of the thread and hot-rolled coil is rising steadily. However, the distant futures contract will likely face a certain increase in the purchase brought about by a greater reduction in production.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The policy of restricting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments data, etc.

Rubber: Pay attention to short-term supply pressure.

On July 14, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,250 (-65) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,975 (-25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -425 yuan/ton (-35); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 105,910 (+1,374) lots, the short position was 153,649 (+131) lots, and the net short position was 47,739 (-1,243) lots.

On July 14, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,610 (0) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,660 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,660 (+15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -209 (+8) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 9: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 188,158 (+3,872) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,550 (-100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 49.4 (-0.67), cup lump 43 (0), latex 44.7 (+0.20), RSS3 51.7 (-0.44).

As of Jul 8, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 43.6% (-1.68%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 44.51% (-0.24%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the price of rubber remained weak, and during the intraday trading period, the price was boosted due to the news of the fire in the Huangdao warehouse in Qingdao. It is understood that there are a small amount of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in the inventory, accounting for a small proportion, so the real impact is not significant. In the night trading, due to the news of some rubber indicators issued by Yunnan, prices fell again. At present, the fundamentals of rubber have not changed much, and the demand side is still showing a weak momentum. Domestic tire factories are in the seasonal off-season, and the high temperature has also caused the load of the factories to drop. However, the seasonal production peak season for overseas snow tires will soon be ushered in in the later period, and the operating rate is expected to rebound again. The biggest pressure on tire factories now lies in the high inventory of finished products, so it may be difficult to see obvious demand for raw materials in the short term. Therefore, the decline in Qingdao port inventory is more based on the slowdown in imports in the past two months. Although the price is still at a low level, due to the weak driving force, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate mainly at a low level.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: The UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching an agreement.

Oil prices fell sharply yesterday. According to market sources, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching an agreement, which is expected to raise the UAE's production cut baseline to 3.65 million barrels per day next year. However, the final agreement has not yet been reached, because the agreement still requires all OPEC member states to agree. Judging from the UAE’s reduction in production baseline from the 3.8 million barrels per day proposed at the previous meeting, it can be seen that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made some compromises. But we think the market may overreact, because even if the UAE has more production quotas, the increase is only about 500,000 barrels per day. Therefore, in the future new production reduction agreement, whether other countries can further increase production is very critical. If the previous plan is still to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in the limited production alliance, and only the UAE increases production, then the actual OPEC supply will have a limited impact. We believe that before the final agreement is reached, the market is still full of variables, and the recent shocks in oil prices also reflect the uncertainty of the current OPEC production policy.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: Copper prices have returned to fundamentals, and the impact of macro factors has gradually faded.

Spot: According to SMM news, buyers and sellers in the spot market showed a stalemate yesterday, mainly because the inter-month spread narrowed to 70-80 yuan/ton, and the overall market activity was limited. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper reported a premium of 260-270 yuan/ton. But buyers had limited acceptance of this price, and holders were unwilling to sell at a lower price. In the morning market, the 08 contract with a premium of 150-160 yuan/ton was bought instantly, which further strengthened the willingness of holders to support the price. During the second trading period, the quotations of some holders were depressed at a premium of about 250 yuan/ton, which made market transactions smoother. High-Grade Copper's popularity is low, and its quotation has stabilized at a premium of 280 yuan/ton, with limited transactions. Hydro-Copper had a small amount of supply inflow, but due to the downstream price reduction, the spread between it and the Standard-Grade Copper was slightly widened, with the premium of 170-200 yuan/ton. After the market price dropped rapidly by nearly 500 yuan, some downstream buyers entered the market for purchases. However, due to the limited attractiveness of the supply of Hydro-Copper with a premium of 200 yuan/ton, the buyer as a whole maintained just-needed purchases.

Opinion: Fed Chairman Powell stated in his congressional testimony yesterday that the Fed will give notice before it starts to reduce the scale of bond purchases. He also emphasized that monetary policy should still be highly accommodative, which has caused the dollar index to show a significant decline. However, looking at the copper price, it seems that the impact on this has become less obvious. Yesterday it still maintained a weak and volatile pattern, which is relatively consistent with the current fundamentals of copper varieties. Therefore, at the moment, fundamental factors may gradually play a leading role in copper prices.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The production and sales of filaments have improved, and TA processing fees are still relatively strong.

Balance sheet outlook: The inflection point of PTA inventory accumulation will gradually appear in mid-to-late July, making PTA enter the re-accumulation cycle. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish;

(2) Intertemporal: The contradiction of the 9-1 spread: the premium brought by the speculative sentiment of the high holding position of the 09 contract VS the turning point of inventory gradually revealed from late July to August.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：成材供需改善，原料需求仍好

观点与逻辑：

昨日国内铁矿石期现货均出现一定幅度下跌，期货强于现货表现，铁矿石主力合约小幅下跌5.5元/吨，收盘报1219.5元/吨，跌幅0.45%。现货价格呈现5-16不等跌幅幅，主流低品粉矿相对中高品更抗跌，青岛港Pb粉收盘报1475元/吨，杨迪报1200元/吨，超特报1040元/吨，中高品价差略有收窄，但仍处绝对历史高位，昨日港口现货成交105万吨，环比增加9.8%，整体成交仍处正常偏低水平。

近期国内钢企减产压产愈演愈烈，市场对铁矿观点也不尽相同，原因在于压产是否会使得铁矿石需求收到明显压缩，但主流观点认为，即使减少粗钢产量，第一步也是钢企通过调整废钢的添加来实现，停高炉是后备选项，所以中近期矿石的实际需求状况还不会迅速恶化，但是限制了上涨的空间，如果压产力度很强，那么就会涉及到高炉减产，那是铁矿石将出现实质性过剩局面。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，国内外的高消费一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。就此展望后市，在整体压产的格局下，矿价难以具备成材上涨的想象力，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，后续价格有望偏弱运行。短期内，由于基差较大，在成材价格稳中上行的格局下，铁矿石近月盘面价格有望向现货价格靠拢的可能，但是远月合约将会有可能面临较大力度减产带来的确定性增库。

策略：

单边：中期偏空

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：关注短期供应压力

14号，RU主力收盘13250（-65）元/吨，混合胶报价11975元/吨（-25），主力合约基差-425元/吨（-35）；前二十主力多头持仓105910（+1374），空头持仓153649（+131），净空持仓47739（-1243）。

14号，NR主力收盘价10610（0）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1660（+10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1660美元/吨（+15），印尼标胶1605（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-209（+8）元/吨。截至7月9日：交易所总库存188158（+3872），交易所仓单174550（-100）。

原料：生胶片49.4（-0.67），杯胶43（0），胶水44.7（+0.20），烟片51.7（-0.44）。

截止7月8日，国内全钢胎开工率为43.6%（-1.68%），国内半钢胎开工率为44.51%(-0.24%）。

观点：昨天胶价维持偏弱运行，盘中因青岛黄岛仓库发生火灾的消息，价格有所提振，据了解库存约少量的天然橡胶和合成橡胶，占比很小，实质影响不大。夜盘则因云南下发部分指标胶的消息重新回落。当下橡胶基本面变化不大，需求端仍呈现偏弱势头，国内轮胎厂处于季节性淡季，高温也使得负荷有所回落，但后期即将迎来海外雪地胎季节性生产旺季，预计开工率或重新回升，当下轮胎厂最大的压力在于高企的成品库存，因此短期内或难以见到明显的原料需求。因此，青岛港口库存下降更多基于近两个月来进口量的减缓。价格低位下，但驱动偏弱，预计胶价低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：阿联酋与沙特接近达成协议

昨日油价大幅下跌，市场消息称阿联酋与沙特接近达成协议，有望在明年将阿联酋的减产基线上调至365万桶/日，不过最终协议尚未达成，因为该协议仍然需要所有OPEC成员国同意，阿联酋的减产基线比此前会议上提出的380万桶/日有所下调，可以看出沙特与阿联酋应该双方都做出了一定妥协，但我们认为市场可能反应过度，即便是阿联酋多了更多的生产配额，但其增加的幅度也大约在50万桶/日，所以在未来新的减产协议中，其他国家是否也能进一步增加产量就非常关键，如果依然是按照此前的方案即限产联盟每月增产40万桶/日，只是阿联酋多增产，那么对实际的OPEC供应影响有限，我们认为在最终协议达成之前，市场依然充满变数，油价近期震荡的表现也体现出当前欧佩克产量政策的不确定性。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：铜价回归基本面 宏观因素影响逐渐淡去

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场买卖双方呈现僵持拉锯之势，主要因为隔月价差收窄至contango70-80元/吨，市场整体成交活跃度有限，早市平水铜便报于升水260-270元/吨，买盘对此价格接受度有限，但持货商也不愿降价出货，早市个别持货商对次月08合约报价升水150-160元/吨被秒收，更坚定了其余持货商挺价之心，第二节交易时段，有持货商被压价降于升水250元/吨左右出货顺畅。好铜青睐度低，报价僵持稳定于升水280元/吨，成交有限。湿法铜有少量货源流入，下游压价部分逢低补货，和平水铜价差小幅拉开，整体报至升水170-200元/吨。盘面迅速下跌近五百余元后，部分下游入市采购，但由于湿法铜升水200元/吨货源吸引力有限，整体维持刚需采购。

观点：昨日美联储主席鲍威尔国会证词中称，联储将在开始缩减购债规模前给出通知。他同时强调，货币政策仍应高度宽松。这使得美元指数呈现出较大幅度回落，但反观铜价，似乎对此的影响愈发不明显，昨日仍然维持震荡偏弱格局，而这与铜品种目前基本面的状况相对吻合。因此当下，基本面因素或将对铜价逐渐起到主导作用。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：长丝产销有所改善，TA加工费仍偏强

平衡表展望：PTA累库拐点7月中下附近逐步出现，进入小幅累库周期，关注周频库存是否已兑现累库拐点；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看多。（2）跨期：9-1价差的矛盾在于，09合约持仓量偏高的投机氛围溢价VS7月下至8月库存拐点逐步露出的矛盾，9-1价差建议逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。