The SSE 50 Index hit a new low this year. Is there an opportunity for buying at the bottom?

Traditional industries represented by banks and real estate performed sluggishly during the year. The decline in these related stocks during the year dragged down the Shanghai 50 Index, while mid-cap stocks represented by new energy and new energy vehicles rose sharply, driving the ChiNext Index to surpass the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. It is expected that the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index will remain weak in the second half of the year, and small and medium-cap stocks with growth attributes will become the main targets of investment.

On July 14, A shares were in a downturn, and the decline in late trading hours expanded. Sector stocks generally fell. Among them, the automobile, non-ferrous, and military sectors were the leading decliners, the new energy sector fell sharply, and foreign investment was also selling in large quantities.

As of the close, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 52.36 points, or 1.54%, a record low for the year. How will the large-cap stocks of the Shanghai stock market that were invested by the group at the beginning of the year develop?

The banking and real estate industries drag down the SSE 50.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index began to fluctuate and fall after February 18 this year, and the 50 constituent stocks had a distinct ups and downs during the year. On July 14, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index hit a new low in the year, reaching 3328.88 points, and finally closed down 1.54% to 3,339.38 points.

The overall stock market is sluggish, and individual stocks have differentiated performance. During the year, 603259 and other medical service stocks, 603501 and other semiconductor stocks, and 600809 and other liquor stocks soared.

Financial stocks such as 600918 and 601318, real estate stocks such as 600048, and chemical pharmaceutical stocks such as 600276 fell sharply during the year. Food stocks such as 600887 and 603288 fell more than 18% during the year.

Since mid-February, why has the SSE 50 Index continued to slump?

Analysts believe that first, institutions, especially foreign investment, have changed their preferences for consumer stocks, from large-cap stocks represented by food and beverage to mid-cap stocks represented by new energy and new energy vehicles. Second, the continued decline in nominal interest rates after June has increased risk appetite, making small and medium-cap stocks with growth attributes more popular in the market. Third, since the Fed's monetary policy tightened slightly in June, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar, and the inflow of the North bound to A-shares has slowed, resulting in a decline in the allocation demand for large-cap stocks.

The high-weight stocks in the Shanghai 50 Index are represented by banks and real estate. However, in this year's market, banks and real estate did not perform well in the rest of the time, except for a pulse-like rise. The performance of the entire procyclical sector was not good, which caused the SSE 50 Index to slump.

The economic data dropped from the high, coupled with the tightening of real estate policies, making the profit expectations of traditional industries in the SSE 50 more pessimistic, and the unexpected RRR cut seems to confirm this. Before the economic data reaches a low level, it is difficult for the traditional industries in the SSE 50 to become the dominant style of the market.

上证50指数再创年内新低 抄底机会来了吗？

受访人士指出，以银行和地产为代表的传统行业年内低迷，这些权重股年内下挫拖累上证50指数，新能源及新能源汽车为代表的中盘股大涨，带动创业板指超越沪指。
7月14日，A股低迷，尾盘跌幅扩大，板块个股普跌，其中汽车、有色、军工跌幅靠前，新能源板块大跌，外资也在“卖卖卖”。
截至收盘，上证50指数下跌52.36点，跌幅1.54%，创下年内新低。年初被资金抱团的沪市大盘股将如何走？
多位分析人士在接受《国际金融报》记者采访时表示，以银行和地产为代表的传统行业年内低迷，这些权重股年内下挫拖累上证50指数，新能源及新能源汽车为代表的中盘股大涨，带动创业板指超越沪指。预计下半年上证50指数维持弱势，而以成长属性的中小盘为主线。
银行、地产拖累上证50
上证50指数2月18日后开始震荡下跌，50只成份股年内涨跌分化明显。7月14日，上证50指数创年内新低，至3328.88点，最终收跌1.54%报3339.38点。
整体低迷，个股表现分化，年内药明康德等医疗服务股、韦尔股份等半导体股、山西汾酒等白酒股大涨。
年内中国平安等金融股、保利地产等地产股、恒瑞医药等化学制药股大跌，伊利股份、海天味业等食品股年内跌幅超过18%。
自2月中旬后，上证50指数为何持续低迷？
建泓时代投资总监赵媛媛在接受《国际金融报》记者采访时分析，一是机构尤其是外资配置对消费股的偏好发生了变化，从以食品饮料为代表的大盘股，变化为以新能源及新能源汽车为代表的中盘股。二是6月以后名义利率的持续下行提升了风险偏好，带有成长属性的中小盘股票更受市场欢迎。三是自6月美联储货币态度微紧以来，人民币对美元有所贬值，北上资金流入A股速度放缓，对大盘股的配置需求下降。
私募排排网基金经理胡泊也告诉《国际金融报》记者，上证50指数权重股是以银行和地产为代表，而银行、地产在今年的市场行情中，除了有一波脉冲式的行情之外，其余时间表现并不好，包括整个顺周期的板块表现都不好，因此造成了上证50指数低迷。
圆融投资股票部总经理王将向《国际金融报》记者表示，经济数据见顶回落，叠加房地产政策趋严，上证50中传统行业的盈利预期较为悲观，而超预期的降准似乎也印证了这一点。在经济数据见底之前，上证50中的传统行业难以成为市场主导风格。
创业板指一度超越沪指
7月14日，A股弱势震荡尾盘跌幅扩大，沪指收跌1.07%报3528.5点，创业板指收跌0.75%报3488.63点。年内来看，沪指和创业板指均经历了年初大涨，2月18日后大跌，但之后的反弹力度表现分化，沪指年内上涨1.6%，创业板指年内大涨17.6%。上证50指数年内跌幅超过8%。
就上证50指数成份板块而言，最新市值较年初大幅缩水，最新总市值约20万亿元，较2月18日的23万亿元而言，超过3万亿元“蒸发”；最新市盈率PE（TTM，整体法）降至11.85倍，较2月18日的15.18倍明显下降。
对于创业板指数跑赢沪指表现，胡泊进一步向记者分析，当前市场结构化特征比较明显，高景气度、高成长性、与当前我国整体战略相符的硬科技产业链，包括新能源汽车、光伏、半导体等产业，整体表现非常好，有非常好的投资回报。因为这些板块主要在双创指数之内，所以造成了科创板、创业板指数整体涨幅非常明显。而上证综指代表的传统行业，仍然受到疫情后的经济结构变化的影响，部分个股因为经济周期或者商业模式压力出现调整，整体表现不尽人意。但未来风格有可能出现转换的现象，成长股、白马股仍然有一定的周期性。
“年内以创业板为代表的深圳市场表现突出，主要原因是创业板的盈利增速占据明显优势，在利率环境出现扰动的情况下，高景气、高增速行业成为了‘抱团’首选。”王将认为。
关注景气度排位最新变化
下半年上证50走势如何？结合板块、大中小市值而言，下半年在配置个股方面有何建议？
“当前市场流动性趋于宽松，并未明显的收紧，再加上成长股处于高景气度周期，因此成长股成为了当下的市场热点，顺周期的金融、地产则不受市场待见。”在胡泊看来，如果下半年流动性收紧，银行和地产的防御价值以及配置价值会得到凸显，所以不排除下半年出现风格转换的可能性。
“下半年上证50指数大概率还将继续维持弱势。”赵媛媛直言，7月13日创业板指数一度超越沪指只是一个开始，预计下半年在名义利率持续下滑、人民币兑美元震荡贬值的环境下，将始终以成长属性的中小盘为主线。尤其是中报期以后，在TMT、新能源行业中或将诞生半导体上游设备材料、华为生态（自动驾驶、物联网、AI、工业互联网、游戏等）、先进制造等持续性热点。
王将进一步指出，随着高景气行业股价的不断兑现，后面连续上涨难度较大，市场可能逐渐优胜劣汰并尝试寻找新的细分方向，建议密切关注不断出炉的中报预告以及财报，观察景气度排位的最新变化。