Iron ore: The production and sales of the thread and hot-rolled coil have rebounded, and the raw materials are running strongly.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, China's domestic iron ore futures and spot prices both showed an upward trend. The main iron ore contract plunged during the intraday session, and then fluctuated higher. As of the close, it rose 19.5 yuan/ton, and closed at 1,234 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61%. The spot price generally rose. Qingdao Port Pb fines closed at 1,478 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; SSF reported 1,044 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the port spot transaction was 1.14 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous week, and the overall transaction was still at a normal low level.

Recently, domestic steel companies have been increasing their efforts to reduce production, and the market has different views on iron ore. The reason lies in whether production restrictions will significantly compress iron ore demand. However, the mainstream view is that even if the output of crude steel is reduced, the first step will be achieved by adjusting the addition of scrap steel by steel companies. The blast furnace shutdown is a backup option, so the actual demand for iron ore in the near and mid-term will not deteriorate rapidly, but the room for rising is limited. If the production restriction is strong, then it will involve the reduction of blast furnace production, that is, there will be a substantial surplus of iron ore.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, and high domestic and foreign consumption has been supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead to the future, under the overall production restriction pattern, it is difficult for iron ore prices to have the strength to rise as the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the price direction of iron ore depends on the strength of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the production restriction of crude steel is strong, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply, and subsequent prices are expected to run weaker. In the short term, due to the large basis difference, the iron ore market price is expected to move closer to the spot price under the pattern that the price of the thread and hot-rolled coil is rising steadily. However, the distant futures contract will likely face a certain increase in the purchase brought about by a greater reduction in production.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: None

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The policy of restricting production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipments data, etc.

Rubber: The price of raw materials is relatively strong at home and relatively weak at abroad.

On July 15, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,370 (+120) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -445 yuan/ton (-20); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 105,910 (+1,374) lots, the short position was 153,649 (+131) lots, and the net short position was 47,739 (-1,243) lots.

On July 15, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,765 (+155) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,670 (+10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,655 (-5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,615 (-10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -325 (-117) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 9: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 188,158 (+3,872) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 174,550 (-100) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 49.77 (+0.37), cup lump 43 (0), latex 44.7 (0), RSS3 52.11 (+0.41).

As of Jul 8, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 43.6% (-1.68%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 44.51% (-0.24%).

Opinion: The price of rubber fluctuated strongly yesterday. After the negative impact of the sharp drop in overseas raw material prices and the sharp decline in the operating rate of domestic tire factories ended, the contradiction between supply and demand has eased. At present, the fundamentals of rubber have not changed much, and the demand side is still showing a weak momentum. Domestic tire factories are in the seasonal off-season, and the high temperature has also caused the load of the factories to drop. However, the seasonal production peak season for overseas snow tires will soon be ushered in in the later period, and the operating rate is expected to rebound again. The biggest pressure on tire factories now lies in the high inventory of finished products, so it may be difficult to see obvious demand for raw materials in the short term. Therefore, the decline in Qingdao port inventory is more based on the slowdown in imports in the past two months. In the future, investors can mainly focus on the rhythm of supply. Although the price is still at a low level, due to the weak driving force, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate mainly at a low level.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk points: production may increase sharply, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may fall sharply.

Crude oil: OPEC's crude oil production increased slightly in June.

Judging from the recent impact of the Delta strain, Europe is the most affected region. The traffic congestion index in Europe dropped from the previous 90% to the 70% quintile; the traffic congestion index in North America also dropped slightly; although the traffic index in the Asia-Pacific region did not drop significantly, it still hovered around 50%. The current Delta strain has a certain impact on the prospects for future demand recovery. However, considering that countries are unlikely to adopt more stringent lockdown measures, we do not believe that this round of the epidemic will have a major impact on crude oil demand. In addition, the destocking of global crude oil inventories is smooth, and the recovery of refined oil demand may be affected in the short term. But if the demand for crude oil does decline in the future, it will need to rely on the decline in refinery operating rates to make adjustments. However, this situation has not yet occurred, and the global refinery operating rate is still recovering steadily.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: Crude oil fell, but copper prices remained stable.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, yesterday, the quotation of Shanghai Copper Cathode spot price against the current month's contract was at a premium of 310 to 390 yuan/ton, with an average price premium of 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The transaction price of Standard-Grade Copper was 68670 - 69000 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of High-Grade Copper was 68700 - 69000 yuan/ton. Yesterday was the last trading day of the 2107 contract, and the mainstream market made quotations on the 08 contract. The inter-month spread of the 07 and 08 contracts was still showing the Contango structure, the intraday spread fluctuates widely, ranging mostly between Contango 40-70 yuan/ton, and the largest expansion was about 100 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the Shanghai Copper 2108 contract opened low and moved high. Its price has gradually rebounded since the opening price of 68,080 yuan/ton. By the spot trading session, its price has exceeded the daily average line and fluctuated around 68,600 yuan/ton above the daily average line. Yesterday, the mainstream spot market quoted prices for the 08 contract, and the quotes for the 07 contract basically followed the trend of the inter-month spread. Although the inter-month spread had a large volatility and a high frequency of changes, the quotation for the 08 contract was still stable. The quotation of Standard-Grade Copper stood at a premium of 270-280 yuan/ton, High-Grade Copper was priced at a premium of 300-320 yuan/ton, and a small amount of Hydro-Copper represented by the ESOX brand was quoted at a premium of 200-220 yuan/ton. Some Bulgarian brands was quoted at a premium of 230-250 yuan/ton.

Opinion: From recent data, it can be found that the trend of copper prices is gradually returning to fundamental pricing. At present, the upper limit of the copper price is under pressure due to the gradual increase in supply, and the lower limit is supported by the suppressed purchase demand in the first two quarters due to high prices. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, copper prices may still maintain a volatile pattern. Yesterday, crude oil prices continued to show a significant correction, which would logically have a certain negative effect on copper prices due to the impact of inflation expectations, but yesterday copper prices still showed a pattern of strong volatility. From this point of view, the current macro-pricing role may be weaker, and we still maintain a volatile judgment on copper prices in the near future.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The correction of crude oil prices led to a fall in PTA costs.

Balance sheet outlook: The inflection point of PTA inventory accumulation will gradually appear in mid-to-late July, making PTA enter the re-accumulation cycle. The accumulation rate of PX inventory in July is limited, and it is expected that the space for compression of PX processing fees is limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: The processing fee is too high, and it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

(2) Intertemporal: The contradiction of the 9-1 spread: the premium brought by the speculative sentiment of the high holding position of the 09 contract VS the turning point of inventory gradually revealed from late July to August.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石：成材产销回升，原料偏强运行

观点与逻辑：

昨日，国内铁矿石期现货均呈上涨态势，铁矿石主力合约盘中一度跳水，随后震荡走高，截至收盘上涨19.5元/吨，收盘报1234元/吨，涨幅1.61%。现货价格整体涨多跌少，青岛港Pb粉收盘报1478元/吨，上涨3元/吨，超特报1044元/吨，上涨4元/吨。昨日，港口现货成交114万吨，环比增加9万吨，整体成交仍处正常偏低水平。

近期国内钢企减产压产愈演愈烈，市场对铁矿观点也不尽相同，原因在于压产是否会使得铁矿石需求收到明显压缩，但主流观点认为，即使减少粗钢产量，第一步也是钢企通过调整废钢的添加来实现，停高炉是后备选项，所以中近期矿石的实际需求状况还不会迅速恶化，但是限制了上涨的空间，如果压产力度很强，那么就会涉及到高炉减产，那是铁矿石将出现实质性过剩局面。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，国内外的高消费一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。就此展望后市，在整体压产的格局下，矿价难以具备成材上涨的想象力，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求，后续价格有望偏弱运行。短期内，由于基差较大，在成材价格稳中上行的格局下，铁矿石近月盘面价格有望向现货价格靠拢的可能，但是远月合约将会有可能面临较大力度减产带来的确定性增库。

策略：

单边：中期偏空

跨品种：无

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：原料价格内强外弱

15号，RU主力收盘13370（+120）元/吨，混合胶报价11900元/吨（-150），主力合约基差-445元/吨（-20）；前二十主力多头持仓105910（+1374），空头持仓153649（+131），净空持仓47739（-1243）。

15号，NR主力收盘价10765（+155）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1670（+10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1655美元/吨（-5），印尼标胶1615（-10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-325（-117）元/吨。

截至7月9日：交易所总库存188158（+3872），交易所仓单174550（-100）。

原料：生胶片49.77（+0.37），杯胶43（0），胶水44.7（0），烟片52.11（+0.41）。

截止7月8日，国内全钢胎开工率为43.6%（-1.68%），国内半钢胎开工率为44.51%(-0.24%）。

观点：昨天胶价盘面震荡偏强，海外原料价格大幅下挫以及国内轮胎厂开工率大幅下滑的利空基本反映完毕之后，供需矛盾有所缓和。当下橡胶基本面变化不大，需求端仍呈现偏弱势头，国内轮胎厂处于季节性淡季，高温也使得负荷有所回落，但后期即将迎来海外雪地胎季节性生产旺季，预计开工率或重新回升，当下轮胎厂最大的压力在于高企的成品库存，因此短期内或难以见到明显的原料需求。因此，青岛港口库存下降更多基于近两个月来进口量的减缓。后期主要关注供应的节奏，价格低位下，但驱动不足，预计胶价低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：欧佩克6月原油产量小幅增加

从Delta毒株最近的影响来看，受影响最大的是欧洲地区，欧洲的交通拥堵指数从此前的90%以上下降至70%分位，北美洲的交通拥堵指数也出现小幅下降，亚太地区交通指数虽然没有出现大幅下降，但仍旧徘徊在50%上下，当前Delta对未来的需求复苏前景产生一定影响，但考虑到各国采取更加严厉的封城措施可能性偏低，我们不认为这一轮疫情会对原油需求产生较大冲击，且目前全球原油库存去化顺畅，即便是短期内成品油需求复苏受到影响，但未来要看到原油需求下滑，需要依靠炼厂开工率下降来调整，但目前尚未看到，全球炼厂开工率仍旧稳步复苏。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：原油走低但铜价依旧维稳

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日上海电解铜现货对当月合约报于升水310~升水390元/吨，均价升水350元/吨，较前一日上升80元/吨。平水铜成交价格68670-69000元/吨，升水铜成交价格68700-69000元/吨。昨日为2107合约最后一个交易日，市场主流对08合约报价，07与08合约隔月基差依旧呈现为Contango结构，日内基差宽幅波动，大多在contango40-70元/吨之间，最大有扩至100元/吨附近，根据SMM价格方法论始终保持对当月报价。昨日沪铜2108合约低开高走，自开盘68080元/吨逐步回升，现货交易时段已跃过日均线，在日均线上方围绕68600元/吨震荡整理。昨日现货市场主流对08合约报价，对07合约基本跟随隔月价差报价，月差虽然波幅较大变动频率较高，但对08合约报价尚稳定，平水铜僵持于升水270-280元/吨，好铜升水300-320元/吨，湿法铜有少量ESOX为代表于升水200-220元/吨，部分保加利亚之类的可报于升水230-250元/吨。

观点：近期可以发现，铜价走势逐渐回归基本面定价。而目前铜价上方存在着因供应逐渐增加而带来的压力，但下方则也有在价格走低是而被激发出的此前二季度因价格高企而被抑制的采购需求，故此基本面上来看，铜价或仍维持震荡格局。而昨日，原油价格继续呈现出较大幅度回调，这按理将会因通胀预期的影响而对铜价产生一定负面作用，但昨日铜价还是呈现出了震荡偏强格局，由此看来，当下宏观定价的作用或许愈发次要，近期仍对铜价维持震荡的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：原油回调带动PTA成本回落

平衡表展望：PTA累库拐点7月中下附近逐步出现，进入小幅累库周期，关注周频库存是否已兑现累库拐点；PX7月累库速率有限，预期PX加工费压缩空间有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费偏高，暂观望。（2）跨期：9-1价差的矛盾在于，09合约持仓量偏高的投机氛围溢价VS7月下至8月库存拐点逐步露出的矛盾，9-1价差建议逢高反套。

风险：PTA工厂检修计划兑现力度，终端投机补库力度，汽油溢价对芳烃供需改善的持续性。