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Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 20210719

Fang submitted 2021-07-19 11:40:27

Iron ore: The black series sectors were rising across the board, and the iron ore basis remained high in the short term.

Affected by the overall rising of black series commodities last week, iron ore futures rose again and returned to above 1,200 yuan/ton. As of the close of last Friday, the iron ore 2109 contract closed at 1,241 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 78 yuan/ton, or 6.71%. In terms of spot, last Friday, Qingdao Port's PB fines reported a rise of 15 yuan/ton at 1,485 yuan/ton, SSF reported a rise of 3 yuan/ton at 1,043 yuan/ton, and the Platts 62% index reported at US$219.8/ton, an increase of US$2.8/ton. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction of iron ore at the main port last week was 1.03 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous week.

In terms of supply, according to Mysteel's statistics, Australia and Brazil shipped 23.759 million tons of iron ore, a week-on-week decrease of 1.147 million tons. Among them, the total shipment from Australia was 16.235 million tons, a decrease of 1.865 million tons from the previous week. Australia sent 12.77 million tons to China, a decrease of 2.811 million tons from the previous week. The total shipment from Brazil was 7.524 million tons, an increase of 718,000 tons from the previous week. The total global shipment volume was 30.027 million tons, a decrease of 1.759 million tons from the previous week. The total arrival volume of China's 45 ports was 22.76 million tons, a decrease of 2.367 million tons from the previous week. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 11.069 million tons, an increase of 453,000 tons from the previous week. Arrivals and shipments have decreased simultaneously, and iron ore supply pressure is relatively small in the short term.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 76.69%, a decrease of 1.56% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 14.06%. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 88.55%, a week-on-week increase of 2.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.41%. The profit rate of steel mills was 82.68%, a week-on-week increase of 8.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.69%. The average daily molten iron output was 2.357 million tons, an increase of 67,800 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 117,400 tons from the same period last year. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 58.56%, a decrease of 0.97% week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate was 70.56%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.74%. The utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 76.81%, a decrease of 8.79% compared with the same period last year. The profit rate of steel mills was 73.01%, an increase of 4.91% from the previous week. The average daily port congestion volume was 2.7709 million tons, down 83,400 tons. The volatility of molten iron output last week was still affected by the previous celebrations and is still in the process of recovery. However, at the same time, the operating rate of the blast furnace is in a downward trend, so there is limited room for the increase of molten iron. Therefore, this has a limited effect on the increase in iron ore demand.

In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel statistics, the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across China was 125.5138 million tons, an increase of 937,800 tons from the previous week; the average daily port congestion volume was 2.7709 million tons, a decrease of 83,400 tons. Australian ore reported 65.3804 million tons, an increase of 445,400 tons; Brazil’s figure was 33.5141 million tons, an increase of 674,100 tons; trade ore reported 68.388 million tons, an increase of 426,000 tons; pellets reported 3.8427 million tons, a decrease of 19,600 tons; iron ore concentrates reported 9.2051 million tons, an increase of 178,100 tons; lump ore increased by 293,900 tons at 18.7459 million tons; coarse iron powder increased by 485,400 tons at 93.7201 tons, an increase of 0.4854 million tons; the number of ships in port was 155, an increase of 17.

On the whole, the current contradiction between the supply and demand of iron ore is still not prominent, and the structural contradictions still exist, so the overall inventory remains low and is a state of destocking. The fundamental performance is relatively healthy, but due to the large basis, the probability that prices will maintain a strong operation in the short-term is greater. Looking ahead to the future, under the overall production restriction pattern, it is difficult for iron ore prices to have the strength to rise as the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the price direction of iron ore depends on the strength of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the production restriction of crude steel is strong, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply, and subsequent prices are expected to run weaker. In the short term, due to the large basis difference, the iron ore market price is expected to move closer to the spot price under the pattern that the price of the thread and hot-rolled coil is rising steadily. However, the distant futures contract will likely face a certain increase in the purchase brought about by a greater reduction in production. Therefore, the arbitrage combination of initiating a long position of the thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract is recommended. At the same time, since profit margins have already appeared in the market, it is recommended to over-allocate the position of the thread and hot-rolled coil end.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutrally in the short term; tend to be bearish in the medium term (depends on the intensity of production restriction)

Cross-species: initiate a long position of the nearby futures contract of the thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risk points:

1. The intensity of production restriction and policy orientation of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fell short of expectations;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fell short of expectations;

3. The epidemic may worsen.

Rubber: The negative factors in demand are released, and the price of rubber continues to rebound.

The rubber futures price continued to rebound last week, and its macro support mainly came from the phased easing of domestic monetary funds, while its own fundamental support mainly came from the re-rising of downstream tire factory operating rates.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of July 16 was 190,615 tons (+2457), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 178,150 tons (+3600). Last week's rebound in rubber prices and the release of domestic raw materials have brought a significant increase in warehouse receipts. As of July 11, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to fall slightly, mainly due to the decrease in arrivals.

According to Zhuo Chuang's understanding, the lack of downstream buying support in the domestic spot market has led to a weak transaction sentiment in the market and delayed shipments by traders. In the last week, the U.S. dollar rubber market had active quotations and shipments, but buying was still scarce, and most midstream traders maintained just-needed purchases. The short-term weak demand situation is difficult to improve. Due to heavy rainfall in Thailand's production areas, the supply of latex was blocked, supporting the rebound in raw material prices, and ultimately driving the price increase in the U.S. cargo market. However, due to the current weak domestic terminal purchasing sentiment and the predominantly spot rig-demand purchases, the trading atmosphere for US dollar cargoes is not yet active. As of last weekend, the premium for synthetic rubber was -775 yuan/ton (-750). The continuous increase in butadiene prices last week brought about a surge in synthetic rubber, which caused the spread between the two to widen rapidly, or brought about an anti-substitution for natural rubber demand.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of July 15, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 58.95% (+15.35%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 55.84 (+11.33%). The operating rate rebounded again last week, but China is in the off-season, and the recovery of the operating rate in July is limited.

Opinion: The recent rebound in rubber prices is mainly due to the relaxation brought about by the release of negative factors, as well as repairs due to the recovery of the operating rate of domestic tire factories, after the rapid drop of the overseas raw material end in the early stage and the significant decrease of the operating rate of domestic downstream tire factories. At the same time, the phased turn of the domestic macro-monetary policy last week also gave support to rubber prices. At present, the upper pressure of RU's main contract is mainly in the arbitrage window of RSS3 imports. According to the current price of RSS3, it is estimated to be at the line of 13,900 yuan/ton. July to August is still the low season for domestic demand, so there is limited room for short-term tire operating rates to continue to rise. At the same time, the biggest pressure on tire factories now lies in the inventory of finished products. Therefore, it is necessary to see the finished product inventory effectively decline in the later stage, or there will be more obvious demand for raw material procurement. From a medium-term fundamental perspective, domestic production will gradually pick up, overseas major production areas will also enter the peak season, the demand will show off-season characteristics, domestic demand is weakening week-on-week, and exports are still weak due to container tensions. Mid-term supply and demand expectations are still weak, and the rebound in rubber prices is expected to be limited.

Strategy: cautiously bullish, and it is recommended to invest in the short term

Risk points: Domestic supply may increase substantially, demand may continue to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts, and funding might be tight.

Crude oil: OPEC re-reached an agreement, eliminating the risk of market uncertainty.

OPEC finally reached an agreement at the weekend of last week. According to the latest arrangement, OPEC's total output will increase by 400,000 barrels/day from August until the current reduction of 5.8 million barrels/day is fully compensated, that is, it will be fully restored by September next year. However, OPEC still gives greater flexibility to the production reduction agreement, and will hold a meeting at the end of this year to assess market conditions and decide whether to adjust the production restriction policy. In addition, the monthly ministerial meeting and the JMMC meeting mechanism will continue. The production reduction baseline problem that caused conflicts among member states has also been resolved, that is, starting from May next year, the UAE will be able to increase the baseline from 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.5 million barrels per day (lower than the 3.8 million barrels per day previously required). The Iraqi and Kuwaiti baselines each increased by 150,000 barrels/day, and Saudi Arabia and Russia each increased by 500,000 barrels/day, for a total increase of approximately 1.6 million barrels/day.

From the perspective of the impact of the meeting results, we believe that the overall impact is neutral. First of all, compared with the original plan, there is no change in the increased supply this year, and the production will still increase by 2 million barrels per day in the remaining five months. However, due to the adjustment of production benchmarks in five countries, it means that the rate of increase in production next year will increase. OPEC's intention to gradually withdraw from the production restriction agreement has gradually become clear, but the overall strategy of cautiously increasing production and controlling the pace of production recovery has not changed. Supply growth this year is still lower than the demand recovery, the supply-demand gap will continue, and the strength of the nearby futures contract will continue.

Secondly, since the increase in production this year has not changed, there is not much deviation from the market's previous expectations, but a large uncertainty in the current market has been eliminated. Finally, after the variable of OPEC's production increase is determined, the core focus of the market's attention is the pace of demand recovery and the time for Iranian oil to return to the market. The recent Delta strain has once again brought uncertainty to the demand recovery. Although the number of infections in some countries has increased, the epidemic situation is still relatively controllable. On the Iranian side, the current negotiations have temporarily stalled due to various reasons, and will not resume until the Iranian President agrees at the earliest. The market expects that the return of Iranian oil to the market will be postponed to the end of the year.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: TC prices continue to rise, and the supply side may continue to exert pressure on prices.

Spot situation:

According to SMM news, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of July 16 was between 68,835 yuan/ton and 69,695 yuan/ton, and the average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper was between 225 yuan/ton and 330 yuan/ton. Last week, copper prices basically remained in a volatile pattern. Although the Federal Reserve frequently made dovish remarks last week, it seemed to have less impact on copper prices. The current copper price is gradually returning to the fundamental pricing logic.

Opinion:

Short-term: Last week, TC prices continued to rise, and they have reached the level of US$50.82/ton. Moreover, the price of its by-product sulfuric acid has also maintained a strong upward trend, and has reached a level of 666.40 yuan/ton. The previous relatively meagre profits of refineries should be eased to a great extent. Therefore, as far as the supply side is concerned, the pressure on prices may increase. However, on the demand side, this week we can still see the situation where the holders raise the premium and discount in order to support the price. Therefore, under the current circumstances, the upper limit of copper prices is under pressure while the lower limit is supported by downstream. Therefore, from the perspective of fundamentals, it is expected that copper prices will still be dominated by shocks for the time being. This week we need to pay attention to the euro zone central bank interest rate decision.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point: Domestic delivery situation.

PTA: The rebound of crude oil has driven the cost of PTA to rise; TA processing fees are on the high side in the short term.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA re-entered the inventory accumulation cycle for the first time in August; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from 7 to 8 months was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: TA processing fees are on the high side in the short term, and it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

(2) Intertemporal: The contradiction of the 9-1 spread: the premium brought by the speculative sentiment of the high holding position of the 09 contract VS the turning point of inventory gradually revealed from late July to August.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the sustainability of the improvement in the supply and demand of aromatics due to the gasoline premium.

铁矿石:黑色系全线走高 铁矿基差仍牵绊左右

上周受黑色系商品整体走强影响,铁矿石期货再次上涨重回1200上方。截至上周五收盘,铁矿2109合约收于1241/吨,周环比涨78/吨,周涨幅6.71% 。现货方面,上周五青岛港PB粉报148515,超特粉报10433,普氏62%指数报219.8美元/吨,涨2.8美元/吨。成交方面,上周铁矿石主港日均成交103万吨,环比增加20万吨,整体成交一般。

供应方面,Mysteel澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2375.9万吨,环比减少114.7万吨;澳大利亚发货总量1623.5万吨,环比减少186.5万吨;其中澳大利亚发往中国量1277.0万吨,环比减少281.1万吨;巴西发货总量752.4万吨,环比增加71.8万吨。全球发运总量3002.7万吨,环比减少175.9万吨;中国45港到港总量2276.0万吨,环比减少236.7万吨;北方六港到港总量为1106.9万吨,环比增加45.3万吨。到港、发运同步下降,短期内铁矿石供应压力较小。

需求方面,Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率76.69%,环比上周下降1.56%,同比去年下降14.06%;高炉炼铁产能利用率88.55%,环比增加2.55%,同比下降4.41%;钢厂盈利率82.68%,环比增加8.66%,同比下降11.69%;日均铁水产量235.70万吨,环比增加6.78万吨,同比下降11.74万吨。Mysteel调研163家钢厂高炉开工率58.56%,环比下降0.97%,产能利用率70.56%,环比下降0.74%,剔除淘汰产能的利用率为76.81%,较去年同期下降8.79%,钢厂盈利率73.01%,环比增加4.91%;日均疏港量277.098.34。上周铁水产量波动仍受到前期庆祝活动影响,且仍处于恢复过程当中,但是同时高炉的开工率是下行趋势,铁矿石疏港量同步下行,所以铁水增量空间有限,故,对于铁矿石需求的增量有限。

库存方面,Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12551.38,环比增93.78;日均疏港量277.098.34。分量方面,澳矿6538.0444.54,巴西矿3351.4167.41,贸易矿6838.8042.6,球团384.271.96,精粉920.5117.81,块矿1874.5929.39,粗粉9372.0148.54;在港船舶数15517条。由于疏港下降港口出现了一定增库,增库幅度不大,但是压港量增加比较明显,后期将会陆续转为有效供应,有进一步增库压力。

整体来看,当前铁矿石供需矛盾仍不突出,且细分的结构性矛盾仍存,整体库存保持低位去库,基本面表现较为健康,由于基差较大的原因,价格短期偏强运行概率较大。就此展望后市,在整体压产的格局下,矿价难以具备成材上涨的想象力,铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小,由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧,价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大,铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库,供需格局将逐步转为供过于求,后续价格有望偏弱运行。短期内,由于基差较大,在成材价格稳中上行的格局下,铁矿石近月盘面价格有望向现货价格靠拢的可能,但是远月合约将会有可能面临较大力度减产带来的增库,由此,推荐多成材与空远月的套利组合,由于利润空间已经有所反应,建议超配成材。

策略:

单边 :短期中性 中期偏空(视压产力度而定)

跨品种:多近月成材,空远月铁矿

跨期:无

期现:无

期权:无

关注及风险点:成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期,成材端淡季需求表现不及预期,疫情加重等。

橡胶:需求利空释放,胶价延续反弹

上周橡胶期价延续反弹,宏观的支撑主要来自国内货币资金的阶段性宽松,而自身基本面的支撑则主要来自下游轮胎厂开工率的重新回升。

国内交易所总库存截止716190615吨(+2457),期货仓单量178150吨(+3600),上周胶价的反弹叠加国内原料的释放,带来仓单明显增加。截至711日,青岛保税区库存继续小幅回落,主要因到港量的减缓。

上周现货价格重心环比小幅上移。据卓创了解,国内现货市场缺乏下游买盘支撑,导致市场整体成交气氛偏淡,贸易商出货滞缓。周内美金胶市场报盘活跃,出货积极,但买盘依然匮乏,中游贸易商多刚需买采为主;短期弱需求状况难改。船货价格因泰国产区降雨偏多从而造成胶水供应受阻,支撑原料价格反弹,最终带动美金船货市场价格上涨,但因目前国内终端采购情绪薄弱,且刚需采购以现货为主,因而使得美金船货成交气氛尚不活跃。截至上周末,橡胶升水合成胶-775/吨(-750),上周丁二烯价格的持续上涨带来合成橡胶大涨,使得两者价差快速扩大,或带来天然橡胶需求的反替代。

下游轮胎开工率方面,截止715日,全钢胎企业开工率58.95%+15.35%),半钢胎企业开工率55.84+11.33%)。上周开工率重新回升,但国内处于淡季,7月开工率回升受限。

观点:近期胶价的反弹主要因前期海外原料端的快速回落以及国内下游轮胎厂开工率大幅下挫之后,利空释放之后的缓和,在国内轮胎厂开工率重新回升下的修复。同时,因国内上周宏观货币政策的阶段性转向也给橡胶价格支撑。目前RU主力合约的上方压力主要在烟片进口套利窗口,按照当下的烟片价格测算在13900/吨一线。7-8月份仍是国内的需求淡季,因此短期轮胎开工率继续回升的空间有限,同时轮胎厂当下最大的压力在于成品库存,因此后期须看到成品库存有效下降后,或才有较明显的原料采购需求。中线基本面来看,国内产量将逐步回升,海外主产区也步入旺季,需求呈现淡季特征,国内需求环比走弱,出口则受制于集装箱紧张表现仍然偏弱。中期供需预期仍偏弱,预计胶价反弹空间受限。

策略:谨慎偏多,短线参与

风险点:国内供应大幅增加,疫情等影响需求继续示弱,资金紧张。

原油:欧佩克重新达成协议,市场不确定风险消除

上周周末欧佩克最终达成协议。根据最新的安排,欧佩克从8月起总产量每月增加40万桶/日,直到现有580万桶/日的减产幅度全部回补,即到明年9月全部恢复,不过欧佩克依然对减产协议给了较大的灵活性,到今年年底还会召开会议评估市场情况决定是否调整限产政策,此外每月召开一次的部长会议以及JMMC会议机制依然延续。之前引发成员国内部矛盾的减产基线问题也得到解决,从明年5月起阿联酋得以将基线从316.8万桶/日上调至350万桶/日(低于早先要求的380万桶/日),伊拉克与科威特基线各增加15万桶/日,沙特与俄罗斯各增加50万桶/日,总计增加约160万桶/日。从会议结果的影响来看,我们认为总体影响中性,首先与原方案相比,对于今年的增加供应量没有变化,依然是在余下的5个月内增产200万桶/日,但是由于有5国的产量基准出现调整,意味着明年增产幅度有所增加,欧佩克逐步退出限产协议的意图逐步明朗,但整体谨慎增产控制产量恢复节奏的策略没有发生变化,今年年内供应增长仍旧低于需求复苏,供需缺口还会维持,近月合约的强势依然还会延续;其次,我们在前一周的周报中提到未来欧佩克会议的三种结果,目前最终达成的方案介于第一种和第二种情况之间,由于今年年内的增产幅度未变,因此与市场此前的预期没有出现太大的偏离,只是消除了当前市场中的一个较大的不确定因素;最后,在欧佩克增产这一变量确定之后,市场关注的核心焦点就是需求复苏的节奏以及伊朗石油重返市场的时间,近期Delta毒株对需求复苏再度带来不确定性,虽然部分国家感染人数增加,但疫情形势仍旧相对可控。而伊朗方面,目前的谈判由于各种原因暂时停滞,最快要等到伊朗总统同意后才能重新开始,市场预计伊朗石油重返市场的时间推迟到年底。

策略:中性偏多,原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险:伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜:TC价格持续走高 供应端对价格压力或继续凸显

现货情况:

SMM讯,716日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于68,835/吨至69,695/吨,平水铜平均升贴水报价则是运行于225/吨至330/吨之间。上周铜价基本仍然维持震荡格局之中,虽然上周美联储频繁发出偏鸽派言论,但对于铜价影响似乎较小,目前铜价逐渐回归基本面的定价逻辑。

观点:

短期:上周,可以发现TC价格仍呈现持续走高的态势,目前已经达到50.82美元/吨的水平,并且目前副产品硫酸的价格也同样维持着强劲的涨势,目前已经达到666.40/吨的水平,炼厂此前利润相对微薄的情况应该可以得到很大程度的缓解,故此就供应端而言,对于价格的压力或将愈发增大。不过就需求端而言,本周还是可以看到持货商抬高升贴水从而挺价的情况,故此也显示出此前2季度由于铜价格高企而被抑制的需求或许在3季度初期会有一定恢复。因此在当前情况下,铜价上存压力下游支撑,从基本面情况来看,预计暂时仍以震荡格局为主。本周需要关注欧元区央行利率决议情况。

中长期:宏观方面,全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策,虽然此次议息会议后,美元走势强劲,但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面,目前TC价格持续回升,加之国内抛储传言落地,故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面,而需求端,中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功,且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动,但由于当下市场美联储抛储传闻干扰以及全球范围内央行流动性可能收紧的冲击,因此总体而言,目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略:

1. 单边:中性 2. 跨市:暂缓 3. 跨期:暂缓;4. 期权:暂缓

关注点:

1. 国内交仓情况

PTA原油回调带动PTA成本回调,TA加工费短期偏高

平衡表展望:PTA8月首度重新进入累库周期;PX7-8月累库速率有限。

策略建议:(1)单边:加工费偏高,暂观望。(2)跨期:9-1价差的矛盾在于,09合约持仓量偏高的投机氛围溢价VS7月下至8月库存拐点逐步露出的矛盾,9-1价差建议逢高反套。

风险:PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控,终端投机补库的持续性,浙石化PX新装置投产顺畅度。

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