Market participants believe that the recent market style switching is not smooth. On the one hand, funds have begun to withdraw from the previous hot sectors. On the other hand, financial and other low-value sectors have not been able to show sustained increase due to unsupported fundamentals. The probability of systemic risk in the short-term market is not high, but the possibility of a sharp rise is relatively small, and it is highly likely to continue maintain an oscillating trend.

As of the close on last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.71%, and the turnover of the two markets was slightly enlarged to 1181.6 billion yuan. In terms of market structure, SSE 50 fell 1.21% and the ChiNext index fell 2.96%. In terms of futures, IF2108 fell 1.05%, with a basis of -20.37 points, IH2108 fell by 1.16%, with a basis of -5.50 points, and IC2108 rose by 0.26%, with a basis of -38.52 points. In terms of capital for northbound trading, net sales of Shanghai Stock Connect were 3.398 billion yuan, and that of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 747 million yuan. Analysts believe that the macro background of domestic economic growth decline, the expectations of steady and loosening domestic liquidity and the gradual withdrawal of US loose policies are conducive to the continued expansion of the IC/IH ratio.

The market fell last Friday, and the capital from northward went out again, and the turnover of the two markets continued to remain above the trillion level. " The analyst believes that the stocks of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rose sharply due to the news that "China is considering exempting companies listed Hong Kong Exchange for the security review". The fall in consumer confidence index and the short-term inflation expectations of soaring have caused US stocks to fall. Although Powell reiterated last Wednesday that “high inflation may continue for a few more months, but it will eventually fall back to near the long-term target of 2%.” “If Inflation expectations are out of control, then the Fed will respond", but the market believes that if the Fed really adheres to this principle, it will be too late.

According to The analyst, the central bank launched a 100 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation and a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation before the market opening last Thursday. The MLF winning bid rate was 2.95% and the reverse repurchase winning bid rate was 2.2%. Taking into account that 400 billion yuan of MLF and 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day last Thursday, the superimposed overall reduction of 0.5% is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of long-term funds, and a net liquidity investment of 700 billion yuan will be achieved that day. Economic data shows that the real GDP in the second quarter increased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.5%, which was slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.7%. It’s mainly dragged by the service industry, but the industrial, consumption, and fixed asset investment data are better than May.

The analyst said that since July, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index have oscillated between 3485-3607 points and 5006-5252 points respectively, and they have not shown obvious trend characteristics. After last Friday's adjustment, the two indexes closed in the lower middle area of the range. Under the current background of no systemic risk, the index is less likely to fall sharply and break through the lower edge of the box. In terms of industry, the ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and new energy sectors fell sharply last Friday. Statistics show that since 2018, the GEM KLCI turnover rate has exceeded 5% three times. Whenever the GEM KLCI turnover rate exceeds 5%, the GEM KLCI will often reach the peak then fall. The turnover rate of the KLCI was 3.5%. Since 2018, the turnover rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 3% three times. After each breakthrough, it will also reach the peak periodically. The current rate is 3.13%, which is above 3% for 5 consecutive trading days.

"Based on previous information we believe that there are still traders taking profit on GEM, STAR 50 and new energy vehicles and other popular sectors and industries in the second quarter this week. However, we believe that this adjustment is not similar to the adjustment of the collapse of crowed traded stocks after this Spring Festival holiday. It’s just a callback triggered by short-term trading overheating.” The analyst said, at the market style level, recently, there are signs that the market wants to switch styles but failed to change. The reason is as below, funds have begun to withdraw from the previous hot sectors due to short-term trading overheating, but Financial and other low-value sectors have not been able to see sustained increase due to unsupported fundamentals.
The current turnover of the two markets are still at a high level, so the probability of systemic risk in the short-term market is not high, but the possibility of a sharp rise is relatively small, and it is likely to continue to maintain an oscillating trend.

In terms of market structure, under the background of domestic economic recovery momentum declining and economic no longer relying on infrastructure and real estate stimulation, The analyst believes that growth stocks which are not affected by the traditional economic downturn are expected to become the main line of the market.
Besides, foreign investors prefer to hold core assets represented by CSI300, this means that if the Fed announces the Taper timetable at the Jackson Hole meeting in August, In the short term, the market may face the pressure of narrowing the interest rate gap between China and the United States and the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, this is not conducive to the capital flow into mainland China.

Compared with CSI 500, foreign investment has a greater impact on SSE 50 and CSI 300. Therefore, we believe that from a fundamental perspective, the macro background of domestic economic growth slowing, expectations of stable and loose domestic liquidity, and the gradual withdrawal of US easing policies are conducive to the continued expansion of the IC/IH price ratio. " The analyst said that even though there’re signs of style switching, SSE 50 is still subject to fundamental pressure and its performance is still weaker than that of the CSI 500. Investors are advised to continue to hold long position on IC and short positions on IH.

市场人士认为，近期市场风格切换不顺畅，一方面资金开始撤出前期热门板块，另一方面金融等低估值板块由于基本面并不支持也没能出现持续性大涨。短期市场出现系统性风险的概率不大，但出现大幅上涨的可能性也比较小，大概率继续维持振荡态势.

截至上周五收盘，上证综指下跌0.71%，两市成交额略微放大至11816亿元。市场结构方面，上证50下跌1.21%，创业板指下跌2.96%。期指方面，IF2108下跌1.05%，基差-20.37点，IH2108下跌1.16%，基差-5.50点，IC2108上涨0.26%，基差-38.52点。北上资金方面，沪股通成交净卖出33.98亿元，深股通成交净卖出7.47亿元。分析人士认为，国内经济增长放缓、国内流动性预期稳中趋松和美国宽松政策逐步退出的宏观背景有利于IC/IH比价的继续走扩。

上周五市场下跌，北上资金再度外流，两市成交额继续维持在万亿水平之上。”股指期货分析师陈畅认为，盘中受“中国考虑在数据安全审查中豁免赴港上市的公司”消息影响，港交所股票大涨。上周五晚间，受美国疫情反弹、消费者信心指数回落、短期通胀预期飙升影响，美股下跌。尽管鲍威尔在上周三晚间听证会上重申，“通胀高企可能再持续几个月，但最终会回落至2%的长期目标附近”“如果通胀预期失控，美联储将作出反应”，但市场认为如果美联储真的秉承这种原则，将为时已晚.

据陈畅介绍，上周四盘前央行开展1000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作和100亿元逆回购操作，其中MLF中标利率为2.95%、逆回购中标利率为2.2%。考虑到上周四当天有4000亿元MLF和100亿元逆回购到期，叠加全面降准0.5个百分预计释放约1万亿元长期资金，当天实现流动性净投放7000亿元。经济数据显示，二季度实际GDP同比增长7.9%，两年平均增长5.5%，略低于市场预期的5.7%，主要原因在于服务业的拖累，但工业、消费、固定资产投资数据均好于5月。

陈畅表示，7月以来，上证综指和沪深300指数分别在3485—3607点、5006—5252点之间进行箱体振荡，并未呈现明显的趋势性特征。经过上周五的调整后，两指数收盘分别位于区间的中下部区域。在当前没有系统性风险的背景下，指数大幅下跌、突破箱体下沿的可能性较小。行业方面，上周五创业板指、科创50、新能源板块出现大幅下跌。统计数据显示，2018年以来，创业板综指换手率共有3次超过5%，而每当创业板综指换手率突破5%，往往创业板综指会阶段性见顶回落，当前创业板综指换手率为3.5%。2018年以来，新能源车换手率共有3次超过3%，每次突破后同样会阶段性见顶，当前为3.13%，连续5个交易日在3%之上。

“由此来看，本周创业板、科创50和新能源车等二季度热门板块和行业大概率还将遭遇资金结账。但我们认为这种调整并不是类似春节假期后抱团瓦解的调整，只是由于短期交易过热而引发的回调。”陈畅称，市场风格层面，近期市场有想切换风格、但切不动的迹象，一方面由于短期交易过热资金开始撤出前期热门板块，另一方面金融等低估值板块由于基本面并不支持也没能出现持续性大涨。加上当前两市成交额依然处于高位，因此短期市场出现系统性风险的概率不大，但出现大幅上涨的可能性也比较小，大概率继续维持振荡态势。

市场结构方面，陈畅认为，在国内经济复苏动能衰减、不再依赖基建和地产刺激经济的背景下，不受传统经济下滑影响的成长股有望成为市场主线。加上外资更偏好持有以沪深300成分股为代表的核心资产，意味着如果美联储在8月的JacksonHole会议上公布Taper时间表，市场短期可能面临中美利差收窄、人民币汇率贬值的压力，不利于北上资金流入。

相对中证500而言，外资对上证50和沪深300的影响更大。因此我们认为从基本面角度来看，国内经济增长放缓、国内流动性预期稳中趋松和美国宽松政策逐步退出的宏观背景有利于IC/IH比价的继续走扩。”陈畅称，尽管当前有风格切换的迹象，但上证50受制于基本面压力性价比依然弱于中证500，建议投资者继续持有多IC空IH的跨品种套利。