Iron ore: The arrivals of iron ore has increased, and the price of ore has dropped accordingly.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, both iron ore futures and spot prices showed a downward trend. The main iron ore contract fell 1.49% to close at 1,225 yuan/ton. Port spot prices fell by 5-30 yuan/ton throughout the day, and low quotations caused traders to be less enthusiastic about shipments. Qingdao Port Pb fines closed at 1,476 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, and SSF reported 1,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the port spot transaction was 1.05 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week, and the overall transaction was still at a normal low level. Yesterday, the total volume of 45 port arrivals was 24.973 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 420,000 tons. The global shipment data was 29.36 million tons, a decrease of 670,000 tons on a week-on-week basis.

Recently, the scope of domestic steel companies' production reduction has gradually expanded, and the demand for iron ore as one of the important components of furnace charge has also been significantly compressed. But because the current restrictions on production are not too strong, the current market demand can be met only by adjusting the amount of scrap. With the gradual expansion of production restrictions, it may gradually affect the amount of iron ore. Therefore, the actual demand situation of ore in the near future will not deteriorate rapidly, but it limits the room for rising.

On the whole, the domestic and international supply and demand of iron ore have been in a tight balance since the beginning of this year, and high domestic and foreign consumption has been supporting the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead to the future, under the overall production restriction pattern, it is difficult for iron ore prices to have the strength to rise as the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the price direction of iron ore depends on the strength of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the production restriction of crude steel is strong, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply. Therefore, we propose a unilateral strategy of short-term neutrality and tend to be bearish in the medium term, as well as a cross-species arbitrage strategy for initiating a long position of the nearby futures contract of the thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore, but it needs to be adjusted in a timely manner in conjunction with the intensity of production restriction.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutrally in the short term; tend to be bearish in the medium term (depends on the intensity of production restriction)

Cross-species: initiate a long position of the nearby futures contract of the thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The policy of restricting production production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipping data, etc.

Rubber: Market supply has increased; overseas raw material prices were running on a weak side.

On July 16, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,500 (-70) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,150 (-25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -325 yuan/ton (+120); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 106,456 (-5,008) lots, the short position was 152,087 (-1,982) lots, and the net short position was 45,622 (+3,026) lots.

On July 19, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,890 (-30) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,655 (-25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,655 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -505 (-100) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 16: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 190,615 (+2,457) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 178,150 (+3,600) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 50.29 (+0.24), cup lump 44 (+0.50), latex 43.5 (-1.2), RSS3 52.55 (-0.75).

As of Jul 15, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.95% (+15.35%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 55.84% (+11.33%).

Opinion: The rubber price was adjusted slightly yesterday, and the overall price performance remained strong. From a fundamental point of view, raw material prices in Thailand remained weak, and prices of raw materials such as latex and RSS3 continued to present a downward trend yesterday. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire factories has rebounded slightly, and the snow tire production peak season is approaching, which is expected to further increase the operating rate. However, due to the off-season in China and tire exports are still affected by ocean freight, coupled with the high inventory of finished products in tire factories, demand for raw materials from July to August may be difficult to boost. Therefore, the decline in Qingdao port inventory is more based on the decrease in imports in the past two months. In the future, market participants need to focus mainly on the rhythm of supply. At present, the price of rubber is at a low level, resulting in weak market supply and demand. However, under the boost of macro support and short-term demand rebound, rubber prices are expected to continue the rebound pattern, but the rebound space is limited.

Strategy: neutral

Risk points: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Oil prices fell more-than-expected, but fundamentals may restrict room for adjustment.

Yesterday oil prices fell more-than-expected, and there was no significant negative news in the market. We believe that the main reasons for the decline in oil prices are: 1. The deterioration of the overseas epidemic situation, especially in Europe and Southeast Asian countries. In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, France, and Myanmar, the number of new infections has reached a new high, which has increased the market's concerns about the pace of demand recovery. 2. The overall risk aversion sentiment in the financial market has strengthened, the dollar has appreciated sharply, and the yields of U.S. bonds have fallen sharply, resulting in suppression of risky assets including crude oil and stocks. 3. After the OPEC agreement landed, the market's favorable factors were fulfilled, and the long side has the motivation to close their holding positions for profits, but the OPEC agreement itself is not a negative factor for oil prices. Judging from the current situation, although the epidemic has caused some Asia-Pacific countries to upgrade their anti-epidemic measures, the economic recovery of Europe is still continuing. Therefore, the logic of the escalation of epidemic prevention measures caused by the soaring number of infections and thus dragging down oil demand may not necessarily dominate the market again, and the current destocking of crude oil inventory is still continuing normally. We believe that the decline in crude oil has been overreacted. Although there may still be room for decline, under the current fundamentals, there is very limited room for continuous adjustment.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: Market fears about the recurrence of the epidemic have intensified, and copper prices have fallen.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, the spot market once again opened higher and then lowered yesterday. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 380 yuan/ton, but there was no transaction in the market at this quotation level. It was difficult for buyers and sellers to reach agreement. Even if the holders slightly adjusted the price to a premium of 360-370 yuan/ton, the market was still difficult to see a large number of transactions. After the second period, some holders adjusted their prices slightly again to a premium of 350 yuan/ton, but the market transaction volume only picked up slightly. The High-Grade Copper market was still difficult to find sources of supply. A small amount of supply maintained the quotation at 400-420 yuan/ton, but there was only a small amount of just-needed purchases in the market. With the inflow of some imported sources of Hydro-Copper, its spread between the quotation of Standard-Grade Copper widened, and the overall premium quotation was 240-280 yuan/ton. Some brands, such as Zaldivar, offer a premiums below 200 yuan/ton, but the downstream had limited acceptance of high premiums, and there were few large transactions in the market.

Opinion: The spread of the Delta mutation virus made investors nervous about the global recovery and transferred funds to safe assets such as the U.S. dollar, which caused the U.S. dollar index to rise by more than 93 at one time. At the same time, crude oil prices have fallen sharply by more than 7%, and are currently down to 66.6 US dollars per barrel. Under such circumstances, it is also difficult for copper prices to get rid of the decline. However, when prices fall, there will also be part of the previously suppressed buyer demand in the second quarter to boost the market. Therefore, under the current circumstances, we still maintain our judgment on the volatility of copper prices.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: TA basis has strengthened again, and warehouse receipts of factories and warehouses are gradually cancelled.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA was postponed to August before re-entering the inventory accumulation cycle;; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: TA processing fees are on the high side in the short term, and it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

(2) Intertemporal: The inflection point of the inventory accumulation was postponed again. The inventory accumulation time before the delivery of the 09 contract was relatively insufficient, and the warehouse receipts of factories were also gradually cancelled; For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：铁矿到港增加，矿价应声而下

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿石期现货均呈现下跌态势，铁矿石主力合约下跌1.49%，收于1225元/吨。港口现货价格全天下跌5-30元/吨不等，低位询盘导致贸易商出货积极性不高。青岛港Pb粉收盘报1476元/吨跌9元，超特报1030元/吨跌20元。昨日，港口现货成交105万吨，环比增加5万吨，整体成交仍处正常偏低水平。昨日，45港到港总量2497.3万吨，环比增加42万吨。全球发运数据2936万吨，周环比减少67万吨。

近期国内钢企减产范围逐渐扩大，铁矿作为炉料重要的成分之一需求也受到明显压缩，但因为目前压产的力度不算太大，仅靠调整废钢用量即可满足目前的状况。随着压产力度的逐步扩大，或将会逐步影响到铁矿用量。因此近期矿石的实际需求状况还不会迅速恶化，但是限制了上涨的空间。

整体来看，今年以来铁矿的国内外供需均处于紧平衡状态，国内外的高消费一路支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。就此展望后市，在整体压产的格局下，矿价难以具备成材上涨的想象力，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求。因此，我们给出短期中性，中期偏空的单边策略，以及多近月成材，空远月铁矿的跨品种套利策略，但需要结合压产力度适时调整。

策略：

单边：短期中性 中期偏空（视压产力度而定）

跨品种：多近月成材，空远月铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：供应增加，海外原料价格偏弱

19号，RU主力收盘13500（-70）元/吨，混合胶报价12150元/吨（-25），主力合约基差-325元/吨（+120）；前二十主力多头持仓106456（-5008），空头持仓152087（-1982），净空持仓45622（+3026）。

19号，NR主力收盘价10890（-30）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1655（-25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1655美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1605（-20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-505（-100）元/吨。

截至7月16日：交易所总库存190615（+2457），交易所仓单178150（+3600）。

原料：生胶片50.29（+0.24），杯胶44（+0.50），胶水43.5（-1.2），烟片52.55（-0.75）。

截止7月15日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.95%（+15.35%），国内半钢胎开工率为55.84%(+11.33%）。

观点：昨天胶价盘面小幅调整，总体价格表现维持偏强的格局。基本面来看，泰国原料价格维持弱势，昨天胶水、烟片等原料仍有下行。需求端国内轮胎厂开工率小幅回升，同时雪地胎生产旺季来临，预计将进一步提升开工率，但因国内处于淡季以及轮胎出口仍受海运费影响，叠加轮胎厂成品库存高企，7-8月份原料需求或难以提振。因此，青岛港口库存下降更多基于近两个月来进口量的减缓。后期主要关注供应的节奏，价格低位下，现实供需偏弱，但在宏观支撑以及短期需求的回升下，预计胶价有望延续反弹格局，但反弹空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：油价下跌超预期，但基本面或限制调整空间

昨日油价下跌超预期，且消息面上并无显著利空新闻，我们认为油价下跌主要的原因有：1、海外疫情形势的恶化，尤其是欧洲和东南亚国家，部分国家如英国、法国、缅甸等新增感染人数再创新高，加重了市场对于需求复苏节奏的担忧；2、金融市场整体避险情绪升温，美元大幅升值、美债收益率大幅回落，包括原油、股票等风险资产受到压制；3、欧佩克协议落地后，市场利好因素兑现，多头存在获利了结的动力，但欧佩克协议本身对于油价来说并非利空。从当前的情况来看，虽然疫情导致部分亚太国家升级了防疫措施，但欧洲的经济开放仍在持续，感染人数飙升导致防疫措施升级从而拖累石油需求的逻辑未必能够重演，而当前原油的库存去化依然持续，我们认为原油下跌幅度有些反应过度，虽然可能还存在下跌的空间，但我们认为在当前的基本面格局之下，持续调整的空间非常有限

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：市场对疫情反扑的担忧情绪加剧 铜价回落

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场再度呈现高开低走之势。早市平水铜始报于升水380元/吨，但市场无人问津，买卖双方难达一致，持货商小幅调价至升水360-370元/吨市场依旧难见大量成交，第二时段后部分持货商再度小幅调价至升水350元/吨才略显成交。好铜市场依旧难觅货源，少量货源报价坚挺于400-420元/吨下，市场听闻少量刚需采购。湿法铜则在部分进口货源的流入下，报价跟涨无力，与平水铜价差拉开，整体报至升水240-280元/吨，部分品牌如Zaldivar甚至听闻升水200元/吨以下报价，但下游对高升水接受度有限，市场难闻大量成交。

观点：由于Delta变异病毒的传播使投资者对全球复苏感到紧张，并将资金转移到美元等安全资产，这使得美元指数一度上涨超过93一线。同时原油价格出现了超过7%的大幅下挫，目前回落至66.6美元/桶一线，在这样的情况下，铜价也同样难以摆脱回落的情况，不过在价格走低之际也会有部分此前2季度被压抑的买兴显现，因此在目前情况下，仍然维持对于铜价偏震荡的判断。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：TA基差再度走强，厂库仓单逐步注销

平衡表展望：PTA延后至8月才重新进入累库周期；PX7-8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费偏高，暂观望。（2）跨期：累库拐点再度延后，09合约交割前的累库时间相对不足，厂库仓单亦注销回落，9-1价差转为观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX新装置投产顺畅度。