Iron ore: Futures and spot market prices showed different upward and downward trends, and sentiment led to an improvement in transactions.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, iron ore futures opened low and moved high. The most-active 09 contract closed at 1,233 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% from the previous day. Iron ore quotations in the physical port market presented a mix of gains and losses. Qingdao Port Pb fines closed at 1,462 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton, and SSF reported 1,041 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. Port spot transactions totaled 1.225 million tons, an increase of 16.7% week-on-week, and overall transactions had improved. Yesterday, BHP Billiton issued an operating bulletin for the 2021 fiscal year. In fiscal 2021, iron ore production will increase by 2% compared to 2020. Vale released the second quarter production and sales report on the same day. The report showed that iron ore production in 2021 increased by 16 million tons year-on-year. In the second quarter, Vale's iron ore fines output reached 75.7 million tons. The output of pellets reached 8 million tons. Sales of fine ore and pellets reached 74.9 million tons in the same period, an increase of 14.2% from the first quarter.

Recently, China's domestic steel companies have gradually expanded the scope of production cuts. According to recent news, Jiangsu and Shandong will face the pressure of equalization control in the second half of the year due to the increase in production in the first half of the year and the lack of effective production restriction in July, resulting in further compression of monthly output. Iron ore, as an important charge, will also be affected to varying degrees according to the intensity of production restrictions. At present, the intensity of production restriction has not yet reached the desired target state, and the current situation can be met only by adjusting the amount of scrap steel. With the further strengthening of production restrictions, it may gradually affect the amount of iron ore. Therefore, the current actual demand for ore will not deteriorate rapidly, but the room for increase is limited.

On the whole, although mine production has increased, under the general environment of global economic recovery, overseas excessive demand for iron ore has also been released at the same time. The overall supply and demand are still in a tight balance, and high consumption supports the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead to the future, under the overall production restriction pattern, it is difficult for iron ore prices to have the strength to rise as the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the price direction of iron ore depends on the strength of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the production restriction of crude steel is strong, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply. Therefore, we propose a unilateral strategy of short-term neutrality and tend to be bearish in the medium term, as well as a cross-species arbitrage strategy for initiating a long position of the nearby futures contract of the thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore, but it needs to be adjusted in a timely manner in conjunction with the intensity of production restriction.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutrally in the short term; tend to be bearish in the medium term (depends on the intensity of production restriction)

Cross-species: initiate a long position of the nearby futures contract of the thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The policy of restricting production production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipping data, etc.

Rubber: Port inventory continued to decline slightly.

On July 20, the most-active RU contract closed at 12,920 (-580) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,850 (-300) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -295 yuan/ton (+80); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 101,230 (-5,235) lots, the short position was 147,323 (-4,764) lots, and the net short position was 46,093 (+471) lots.

On July 20, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,330 (-560) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,645 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,635 (-20) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,590 (-15) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -18 (+488) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 16: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 190,615 (+2,457) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 178,150 (+3,600) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 48.39 (-1.9), cup lump 42 (-1.50), latex 42 (-1.5), RSS3 50.26 (-2.29).

As of Jul 15, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.95% (+15.35%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 55.84% (+11.33%).

Opinion: Under the sharp decline of crude oil overnight, the commodity market sentiment weakened, and the price of rubber returned to the downward trend yesterday. The newly announced port inventory continued to decline slightly. Thailand's raw material market prices continue to decline, and the current latex price has continued to hang upside down the price of cup lump. According to the current fundamentals, based on the recovery of the operating rate of domestic downstream tire factories and the year-on-year decline of domestic imported rubber, it may indicate that the downward space of cup lump is limited. In this way, the pattern of latex prices hanging upside down that of cup lump may not be sustainable. However, there will be some recovery in the later period, or resulting market prices continue to fall. In the later period, the main focus is on the rhythm of supply. When the market price is at a low level, due to the fact that supply and demand are weak, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate mainly at a low level.

Strategy: neutral

Risk points: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: relatively high open interest before expiration; bulls stepping may be an important reason for the market's plunge.

Yesterday was the expiration date of the August WTI crude oil contract. It is worth noting that the open interest of the August contract on July 19 was about 30,000 lots. And we have calculated that the open interest of the May to July contract in the day before the expiration is usually around 20,000 lots, which means that the open interest of the 2108 contract this time is 50% higher than the normal level. On the last trading day (July 20), the August contract still has more than 20,000 lots of open interest, while that of the normal month usually does not exceed 3,000 lots, so the delivery of this August contract can be regarded as a huge delivery. Therefore, we believe that this decline is more likely to be dominated by trading rather than fundamentals. That is, the short side in this delivery may be based on industrial background or hedging positions, while the long side may be based on speculative funds. However, the non-industry bulls on the August contract failed to roll over or leave the market early before the last trading day for some reason (it may be that they wanted to close their holding positions after the OPEC meeting), which caused the bulls stepping. This is also an important reason for the weakest performance of the August contract in this plunge.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: Copper prices continue to maintain a volatile pattern.

Spot: According to SMM, the spot market continued yesterday's trend of opening higher and moving lower. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper still started to report a premium of 380 yuan/ton. Some holders still tried to lead the market's high premium pattern, but it was difficult to see positive results. Some high-value hedging buyers closed their holding positions in order to get profit, disintegrating the strong pattern of quotations, causing the price to quickly drop to a premium of 350-360 yuan/ton. After the second period, the transaction began to improve gradually due to the goods with a premium of 340 yuan/ton flowing out of the market. For High-Grade Copper, there were fewer imported brands, coupled with the Guixi Copper is under maintenance, the price of High-Grade Copper remains strong, with the premium quotation of 410-430 yuan/ton. Guixi Copper can even report a premium of 450 yuan/ton. For Hydro-Copper, due to the continuous inflow of imported brands, the overall spread between Standard-Grade Copper remained at around 100 yuan, with the premium quotation of 230-270 yuan/ton.

Opinion: Yesterday, the US dollar index closed up for the fourth consecutive day. However, after the price of copper fell the day before, buying interest in the downstream sector resumed, making the market's premium and discount quotations continue to be firm. Therefore, the copper price yesterday did not continue the previous decline, but showed a trend of rebounding from a low level. This shows that the current copper price is returning more to its fundamentals, and in the case of relatively limited fundamental changes, copper prices will still maintain a volatile pattern.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic rumor of tapering, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: TA prices followed crude oil showing a cost-based downward trend.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA was postponed to August before re-entering the inventory accumulation cycle;; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: TA processing fees are on the high side in the short term, and it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

(2) Intertemporal: The inflection point of the inventory accumulation was postponed again. The inventory accumulation time before the delivery of the 09 contract was relatively insufficient, and the warehouse receipts of factories were also gradually cancelled; For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：期现价格涨跌不一，情绪带动成交好转

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿石期货低开高走，主力09合约收于1233元/吨，较前日增长0.28%。港口现货价格涨跌不一，青岛港Pb粉收盘报1462元/吨跌14元/吨，超特报1041元/吨涨2元/吨。港口现货累计成交122.5万吨，环比上涨16.7%，整体成交有所好转。昨日，必和必拓发布2021财年运营公报。2021年财年较2020铁矿石产量增长2%。淡水河谷同日发布第二季度产销量报告，报告显示2021年铁矿石产量同比增长1600万吨。第二季度淡水河谷铁矿石粉矿产量达到7570万吨。球团矿产量达到800万吨。粉矿和球团矿销量同期达到7490万吨，较第一季度环比增长14.2%。

近期国内钢企减产范围逐渐扩大，从近期消息看到，江苏和山东因为上半年的增产以及7月产量未进行有效压减原因，下半年都将面临平控压力，月产量进一步压缩。铁矿作为重要的炉料也同时会根据压产力度受到不同程度的影响。目前压产的力度还未达到应有的目标状态，仅靠调整废钢用量即可满足目前的状况。随着压产力度的进一步加强，或将会逐步影响到铁矿用量。因此当下矿石的实际需求状况还不会迅速恶化，但是上涨的空间有限。

整体来看，矿山产量虽有增加，但全球经济复苏的大环境下，海外对铁矿的超量需求也同时得到释放。整体供需仍处于紧平衡状态，高消费支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。展望后市，在整体压产的大环境下，矿价难以具备成材上涨的想象力，铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求。因此，我们给出短期中性，中期偏空的单边策略，以及多近月成材，空远月铁矿的跨品种套利策略，但需要结合压产力度适时调整。

策略：

单边：短期中性 中期偏空（视压产力度而定）

跨品种：多近月成材，空远月铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：港口库存延续小幅下降

20号，RU主力收盘12920（-580）元/吨，混合胶报价11850元/吨（-300），主力合约基差-295元/吨（+80）；前二十主力多头持仓101230（-5235），空头持仓147323（-4764），净空持仓46093（+471）。

20号，NR主力收盘价10330（-560）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1645（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1635美元/吨（-20），印尼标胶1590（-15）美元/吨。主力合约基差-18（+488）元/吨。

截至7月16日：交易所总库存190615（+2457），交易所仓单178150（+3600）。

原料：生胶片48.39（-1.9），杯胶42（-1.50），胶水42（-1.5），烟片50.26（-2.29）。

截止7月15日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.95%（+15.35%），国内半钢胎开工率为55.84%(+11.33%）。

观点：在隔夜原油大幅下行下，商品市场氛围转弱，昨天胶价重回跌势。最新公布的港口库存延续小幅回落势头。泰国原料市场价格继续下行，目前胶水价格已经持续倒挂杯胶价格，按照当前的基本面来看，基于国内下游轮胎厂开工率的重新回升以及国内进口指标胶的同比回落，或预示着杯胶的下行空间有限，如此，则胶水价格贴水杯胶的格局或不能持续，后期将会有所恢复，或带来盘面价格继续下行空间受限。后期主要关注供应的节奏，价格低位下，现实供需偏弱，预计胶价低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：临近到期前持仓偏高，多头踩踏或是暴跌重要原因

昨日WTI原油8月合约的到期日，值得注意的是7月19日8月合约的持仓量约3万手，而我们统计了5~7月合约在临近到期前一天的持仓量通常在2万手左右，这也就意味着本次2108合约的持仓量要高出正常水平50%，而在7月20日最后交易日是8月合约仍有超过2万手的持仓量，而正常月份通常不超过3000手，本次8月合约的交割可以算是天量交割。因此，我们认为本次下跌更可能是是交易层面主导的，而非完全是基本面，即本次交割中的空方可能以产业背景或者套保仓位为主，但多头可能以虚盘的投机资金为主，但是8月合约上非产业多头不知出于何种原因未能在最后交易日前提早展期或者离场（有可能是想在OPEC会议出结果后获利了结），从而造成了多头踩踏，这也是此次暴跌中8月合约表现最弱的重要原因。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜：铜价继续维持震荡格局

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场延续昨日高开低走之势，早市平水铜依旧始报于升水380元/吨，部分持货商依旧试图引领市场的高升水格局，但难见成效，有部分高位保值盘获利出货，瓦解了坚挺的格局，报价快速降至升水350-360元/吨，第二时段后，升水340元/吨货源已流出市场，成交才有逐步展开。好铜则在进口流入品牌较少，外加贵溪铜处于检修的情况下，价格维持坚挺，整体报至升水410-430元/吨，贵溪铜甚至可报至升水450元/吨。湿法铜则由于进口品牌的持续流入，整体价差和平水铜维持在百元附近，整体报在升水230-270元/吨，下游逢低买盘略有好转。

观点：昨日美元指数连续第四日收涨，但是铜价在前一日走低之后，下游买兴有所涌现，市场升贴水报价持续坚挺，故此昨日铜价并未延续此前的跌幅，而是呈现出了从低位回升的态势，说明当下铜价还是更多地回归其基本面，而在基本面变化又相对有限的情况下，铜价依旧维持震荡格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：TA跟随原油成本型下挫

平衡表展望：PTA延后至8月才重新进入累库周期；PX7-8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费偏高，暂观望。（2）跨期：累库拐点再度延后，09合约交割前的累库时间相对不足，厂库仓单亦注销回落，9-1价差转为观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX新装置投产顺畅度。