Iron ore: The black series had mixed fluctuations, and the price of iron ore is difficult to rise.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, iron ore futures fell all the way, and the most-active 09 contract closed at 1,174 yuan/ton, down 3.85% from the previous day. Physical port stocks all declined. Qingdao Port Pb fines closed at 1,440 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton, and SSF reported 1,010 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton. Market transactions were uneven throughout the day. Total transactions concluded to be insipid in Jingtang Port and Tianjin Port, while Qingdao and Rizhao Port had relatively active trading sentiment, and transactions were relatively better.

The heavy rains in Henan recently caused all local traffic to be paralyzed, and production and transportation were severely affected. According to the Steel Federation, the iron ore transportation of two steel mills was affected, and the daily transportation volume that was affected is expected to be about 20,000 tons.

Recently, the scope of domestic steel companies' production restrictions has been expanded and the efforts have been strengthened. According to yesterday’s news, all the furnaces in the steel mills and coke enterprises in the Guye District of Tangshan are limited to 50% production. A steel plant in Guangxi underwent overhaul of two 450 cubic blast furnaces, affecting an average daily output of 4,000 tons. Iron ore, as an important charge, will also be affected to varying degrees according to the intensity of production restrictions. At present, the intensity of production restriction has not yet reached the desired target state, and the current situation can be met only by adjusting the amount of scrap steel. With the further strengthening of production restrictions, it may gradually affect the amount of iron ore. Therefore, the current actual demand for ore will not deteriorate rapidly, but the room for increase is limited. Yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission held a national price work conference. The meeting analyzed the current price situation and requested the local price authorities to focus on strengthening price detection and early warning and anticipation management.

On the whole, China's domestic demand is currently being greatly affected. Under the general environment of global economic recovery, excessive overseas demand for iron ore has also been released at the same time, and high consumption has supported the strong operation of iron ore prices. Looking ahead to the future, under the overall production restriction pattern, it is difficult for iron ore prices to have the strength to rise as the thread and hot-rolled coil end, and the price direction of iron ore depends on the strength of domestic production restrictions. If the intensity of production restriction is small, due to the current tight global supply and demand of iron ore, the price is likely to continue to run on the strong side. If the production restriction of crude steel is strong, iron ore inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, which will gradually turn the supply and demand pattern into oversupply. Therefore, we propose a unilateral strategy of short-term neutrality and tend to be bearish in the medium term, as well as a cross-species arbitrage strategy for initiating a long position of the nearby futures contract of the thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore, but it needs to be adjusted in a timely manner in conjunction with the intensity of production restriction.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: neutrally in the short term; tend to be bearish in the medium term (depends on the intensity of production restriction)

Cross-species: initiate a long position of the nearby futures contract of the thread and hot-rolled coil and a short position of the distant futures contract of iron ore

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The policy of restricting production production at the thread and hot-rolled coil end;

2. Domestic and overseas steel demand may weaken at the same time;

3. Iron ore shipping data, etc.

Rubber: The price of raw materials continued to fall, and the cost support of rubber prices was weak.

On July 21, the most-active RU contract closed at 12,955 (+35) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 11,900 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -330 yuan/ton (-35); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 99,384 (-1,846) lots, the short position was 147,790 (+467) lots, and the net short position was 48,406 (+2,313) lots.

On July 21, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,515 (+185) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,635 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,625 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,575 (-15) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -303 (-285) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 16: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 190,615 (+2,457) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 178,150 (+3,600) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 48.39 (0), cup lump 43 (-0.65), latex 41 (-1), RSS3 50.26 (0).

As of Jul 15, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 58.95% (+15.35%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 55.84% (+11.33%).

Opinion: The price of raw materials in Thailand continued to fall yesterday. The hanging upside-down pattern of latex and cup lump prices continued, while the price of RSS3 remained at a relatively high level. If part production of the latex is transferred to RSS3 due to high production profits, it will bring about a further drop in the price of RSS3, and the opening of the import window will also begin to exert pressure on the RU market. Therefore, if the price of latex cannot stop falling, it will still suppress the market price. Domestic demand is still showing off-season characteristics, and the short-term recovery of tire factory operating rate is limited, but after the sharp decline in the early period, there is basically no room for downwards. In the later period, the main focus is on the rhythm of supply. When the market price is at a low level, due to the fact that supply and demand are weak, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate mainly at a low level.

Strategy: neutral

Risk points: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: EIA refined oil inventories fell and oil prices rebounded sharply.

Oil prices rose sharply yesterday. Judging from the EIA data, we believe that the market is in a state of intertwined longs and shorts. On the one hand, crude oil inventories have grown more than expected, but refined oil inventories have declined, and market concerns about demand have eased. We believe that the sharp rebound in oil prices is still mainly due to the overreaction of the previous price plunge. July 19 to July 20 is the expiration date of the WTI August contract. Bulls stepping and liquidity factors caused oil prices to plummet, but they did not reflect the true fundamentals. Therefore, after the factors at the transaction level are digested by the market, there is a demand for upward repair of the inter-month spread and unilateral price, and the previous plunge is just a better buying opportunity.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risks: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or OPEC may increase production beyond expectations.

Copper: The amount of the second round of reserves release has been decided, and the copper price reaction is "calm".

In terms of spot: According to SMM, the spot market continued yesterday's trend of opening higher and moving lower. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 350 yuan/ton to test the buying power of the market, but there were few large transactions. In addition, as imported goods gradually flowed into the market, some holders quickly adjusted their quotations to a premium of 330-340 yuan/ton in response, and even a small amount of quotations dropped to a premium of 320 yuan/ton in the late trading. However, both buyers and sellers in the market were deadlocked, and there were almost no actual transactions. Deal. High-Grade Copper such as CCC-P and ENM imports continued to flow in, but the 400-420 yuan/ton premium price had no price advantage, resulting in few transactions in the market. However, the supply of Guixi Copper and Jinchuan plate was still relatively scarce, which had widened the spread, with the overall premium quotation was 390-420 yuan/ton. Hydro-Copper also has sources such as M/B and MV that had flowed into the market, and the overall quotation had dropped significantly, reporting a premium of 160-200 yuan/ton, with the spread between Standard-Grade Copper once again widened to about 150 yuan/ton.

Opinion: Yesterday, the State Reserve Bureau clarified that the second round of reserve release of copper was 30,000 tons, and the auction time was July 29. However, the market's response to this has been very calm. And when the US dollar index fell from a high level yesterday, copper prices still only rebounded slightly. In addition, the recent floods caused by heavy rains in Henan have relatively limited impact on copper, and changes on copper fundamentals are still relatively small. Therefore, we believe that copper prices will continue to fluctuate in the future.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The typhoon affected PTA factory shipments, and TA spot liquidity tightened again.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA was postponed to August before re-entering the inventory accumulation cycle;; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: TA processing fees are on the high side in the short term, and it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

(2) Intertemporal: The inflection point of the inventory accumulation was postponed again. The inventory accumulation time before the delivery of the 09 contract was relatively insufficient, and the warehouse receipts of factories were also gradually cancelled; For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：黑色分道扬镳，铁矿难以上涨

观点与逻辑：

昨日，铁矿石期货一路下行，主力09合约收于1174元/吨，较前日下跌3.85%。港口现货均出现下跌，青岛港Pb粉收盘报1440元/吨跌22元/吨，超特报1010元/吨跌31元/吨。全天市场成交情况不均衡。京唐港、天津港等成交冷清，青岛和日照港交投情绪较活跃，成交尚可。

近日河南暴雨，当地交通全部瘫痪，生产和运输受到严重影响，据钢联报道，两家钢厂铁矿运输受到影响，日度影响运输量预计在2万吨左右。

近期国内钢企压产范围有所扩大，力度有所加强。从昨日消息看到，唐山古冶区钢厂全部焖炉、焦企限产50%。广西某钢厂对两座450立方高炉进行大修，日均影响产量4000吨。铁矿作为重要的炉料也同时会根据压产力度受到不同程度的影响。目前压产的力度还未达到应有的目标状态，仅靠调整废钢用量即可满足目前的状况。随着压产力度的进一步加强，或将逐步影响到铁矿用量。因此当下矿石的实际需求状况还不会迅速恶化，但是上涨的空间有限。昨日，国家发改委召开全国价格工作会议。会议分析了当前的价格形势，要求当地价格主管部门着重加强价格检测预警和预期管理。

整体来看，国内需求受到较大影响，全球经济复苏的大环境下，海外对铁矿的超量需求也同时得到释放，高消费支撑铁矿石价格偏强运行。展望后市，在压产范围扩大，力度加强的大环境下，矿价难以具备上涨的想象力。铁矿石的价格方向取决于国内压产的力度。如果压产的力度较小，由于当前铁矿石的全球供需偏紧，价格大概率继续偏强运行。如果粗钢压产的力度较大，铁矿石的库存有望出现连续累库，供需格局将逐步转为供过于求。因此，我们给出短期中性，中期偏空的单边策略，以及多近月成材，空远月铁矿的跨品种套利策略，但需要结合压产力度适时调整。

策略：

单边：短期中性 中期偏空（视压产力度而定）

跨品种：多近月成材，空远月铁矿

跨期：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：成材端压产限产政策，海内外钢铁需求同时走弱，铁矿发运等

橡胶：原料价格继续回落，胶价成本支撑弱

21号，RU主力收盘12955（+35）元/吨，混合胶报价11900元/吨（+50），主力合约基差-330元/吨（-35）；前二十主力多头持仓99384（-1846），空头持仓147790（+467），净空持仓48406（+2313）。

21号，NR主力收盘价10515（+185）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1635（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1625美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1575（-15）美元/吨。主力合约基差-303（-285）元/吨。

截至7月16日：交易所总库存190615（+2457），交易所仓单178150（+3600）。

原料：生胶片48.39（0），杯胶43（-0.65），胶水41（-1），烟片50.26（0）。

截止7月15日，国内全钢胎开工率为58.95%（+15.35%），国内半钢胎开工率为55.84%(+11.33%）。

观点：昨天泰国原料继续回落，胶水与杯胶价格倒挂的格局延续，而烟片价格仍维持在较高位，如果因生产利润高企造成部分胶水转生产烟片则将带来烟片价格的进一步回落，进口窗口的打开则对RU盘面的压力也将开始传导。因此，胶水价格不能止跌，则对盘面仍有打压。国内需求目前仍呈现淡季特征，轮胎厂开工率短期回升有限，但因前期大幅下挫后，向下的空间也基本没有。后期主要关注供应的节奏，价格低位下，现实供需偏弱，预计胶价低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：EIA成品油库存下降，油价大幅反弹

昨日油价大幅上涨，EIA数据我们认为只能算多空交织，一方面原油库存增长超出预期，但成品油库存出现下降，市场对需求的担忧有所缓慢，我们认为油价大幅反弹仍主要来源于此前价格暴跌的过度反应，7月19至7月20是WTI8月合约的到期日，多头踩踏叠加流动性因素导致油价暴跌，但并没有反映真实的基本面，因此在交易层面的因素被市场消化之后，月差和单边价格都有向上修复的需求，此前暴跌恰恰是较好的买入机会。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或欧佩克增产超预期

铜： 第二轮抛储量定 铜价反应“淡定”

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场再度延续昨日高开低走之势，但重心较前一日有明显下移，早市平水铜始报于升水350元/吨试探市场买盘力量后市场难闻大量成交，外加市场进口货源逐渐流入市场，部分持货商迅速调整报价至升水330-340元/吨，尾盘听闻少量升水320元/吨货源流出，市场买卖双方僵持不下，难闻大量实际成交。好铜如CCC-P，ENM进口持续流入，升水400-420元/吨无价格优势，难闻成交，但贵溪以及金川大板货源依旧较为稀缺，价差有所扩大，整体报至升水390-420元/吨。湿法铜同样听闻如M/B，MV等货源流入市场，整体报价降幅明显至升水160-200元/吨，和平水铜价差再度拉大至150元/吨左右。

观点：昨日国储局明确第二轮铜品种抛储为3万吨，竞拍时间为7月29日。不过市场对此的反应十分平淡。并且在昨日美元指数于高位回落之际，铜价依然仅仅是出现了小幅的回升，加之近日河南暴雨引发的洪涝灾害对于铜品种而言，影响相对有限，铜基本面变化依然较少，故此铜价仍然维持震荡格局。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：台风影响PTA工厂发货，TA现货流动性再度收紧

平衡表展望：PTA延后至8月才重新进入累库周期；PX7-8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：加工费偏高，暂观望。（2）跨期：累库拐点再度延后，09合约交割前的累库时间相对不足，厂库仓单亦注销回落，9-1价差转为观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX新装置投产顺畅度。