Iron Ore: The escalation of Sino-US conflicts and the repeated epidemics have increased panic in the market.

Opinion and logic:

In recent days, the conflict in Sino-US relations has escalated. At the same time, the new crown epidemic has repeatedly appeared in many parts of China, which has made the market panic, and the stock market and commodity prices have experienced sharp corrections. To the close, the main iron ore futures contract 2109 closed at 1,110 points, down 26 points from the previous day. In terms of spot, the imported iron ore quotations in the physical port stock market dropped sharply in the afternoon session, with a cumulative drop of 5-20 yuan throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1,365-1,375 yuan/ton, Yangdi Fines stood at 1,145-1,155 yuan/ton.

On the whole, the current black series market is destined to be dominated by policies. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-tear ratio have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore from production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain high price levels. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of going short positions of the distant futures contract are recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (10 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: Port inventory continued to fall.

On July 27, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,180 (-5) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,025 (-25) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -205 yuan/ton (+55); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 84,796 (-8,374) lots, the short position was 126,505 (-5,358) lots, and the net short position was 41,709 (+3,016) lots.

On July 27, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,760 (-15) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,665 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,655 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,595 (-10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -435 (-53) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 23: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 193,886 (+3,271) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 177,270 (-880) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 49.30 (+0.67), cup lump 44.80 (+1.35), latex 44 (+2.5), RSS3 53.27 (+1.88).

As of Jul 22, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.75% (+3.8%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 58.65% (+2.8%).

Opinion: The rubber price continued its trend of pulling back from high yesterday, which was mainly suppressed by the surrounding market and the continued decline of stock indexes. As of last weekend, due to a slight rebound in downstream acquisitions and a slowdown in imports, the latest port inventory continued its downward trend. The fundamentals of rubber itself have not changed much, and the supply and demand are weak. However, the stabilization of raw material prices and the continued decline of domestic port inventories still support the space below prices. The main line in the second half of the year is still overseas demand. If demand cannot continue to recover, the pressure on the supply side will be highlighted in the second half of the year. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short-term low position. The main logic of the second half of the year is still in overseas demand. If demand cannot continue to recover, pressure on the supply side will be highlighted in the second half of the year. The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate mainly at a low level in the short term.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil inventories fell sharply.

API released inventory data yesterday. Crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories have all fallen sharply, especially gasoline inventories have fallen by nearly 6 million barrels per day, which shows that the current US market still maintains relatively strong fundamentals, and the recovery of terminal consumption can still absorb the newly increased supply of refined oil brought about by the opening of refineries. Judging from recent high-frequency indicators such as the U.S. traffic congestion index and the number of flight trips, the recovery is basically still maintained. While in the Asia-Pacific market, the recovery of demand is still relatively slow. On the one hand, the number of new infections caused by the Delta virus continues to increase. On the other hand, policy reasons such as inspections of China's refining and chemical industry and SPR’s decision to drawdown and sell oil from the reserve have caused slow demand recovery. The current fundamental pattern of the crude oil market being strong in the west and weak in the east is still continuing.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or the epidemic will worsen more than expected..

Copper: The Fed's interest rate decision is imminent, and the market may be relatively cautious.

Spot: According to SMM, as market prices continued to rise yesterday, the spot market's premiums and discounts once again showed a downward trend, and there were few large transactions in the market. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 270 yuan/ton, but the downstream sentiment of fearing of high prices was serious. And near the end of the month, the market rarely has a lot of buying. Some holders wanted to exchange for spot when facing high market price, so they adjusted the price to a premium of 250-260 yuan/ton to test market feedback. Although there was a quotation of a premium of 230-240 yuan/ton in late trading session, there were still few large transactions in the market. The supply of High-Grade Copper market is tight: ENM and other brands offer a premium of 310-330 yuan/ton, and CCC-P had achieved a relatively better transaction volume when selling at a premium of 340-350 yuan/ton. However, because Guixi Copper is still under maintenance, its quotation is firmed at a premium of more than 360 yuan/ton. Hydro-Copper reported a premium of 150-160 yuan/ton under the guidance of CMCC, Norilsk and other brands. The remaining Low-Quality Copper was difficult to maintain at a premium of more than 200 yuan/ton. The current copper price has returned to more than 72,000 yuan/ton, but it is difficult for the downstream to accept such a high price, so most of the market participants are holding a wait-and-see attitude.

Opinion: Yesterday, affected by the rebalancing cash flow of positions at the end of the month and the decline in U.S. bond yields, the US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day, which gave certain support to non-ferrous metals including copper. Copper prices are currently maintained at 72,000 yuan/ton, but fundamental changes are still relatively limited, and when prices rise, the willingness of downstream replenishment may also be affected. In addition, the current Federal Reserve interest rate decision is imminent, so the market may still maintain a relatively wait-and-see attitude.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: neutrally

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Yisheng new materials restarted after the typhoon has subsided; Fuhua's maintenance was gradually implemented.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet has little pressure on inventory accumulation, and the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish; TA liquidity tend to be tight and the inventory accumulation time node was postponed to September. However, the current PTA processing fee has been at a high level during the year, and risks need to be paid attention to.

(2) Intertemporal: The inflection point of the inventory accumulation was postponed again. The inventory accumulation time before the delivery of the 09 contract was relatively insufficient, and the warehouse receipts of factories were also gradually cancelled; For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: The implementation of the PTA plant maintenance plan, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿: 中美矛盾升级叠加疫情反复，市场恐慌情绪浓重

观点与逻辑：

近日，中美关系有所升级，同时叠加新冠疫情在我国多地出现反复，市场恐慌情绪浓重，股市、大宗商品出现大幅回调。至收盘，铁矿石期货主力2109合约收于1110点，较前日下跌26点。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货午后价格大幅回落，全天累计下跌5-20元不等。青岛港PB粉1365-1375元/吨，杨迪粉1145-1155元/吨；

整体来看，目前黑色行情主要由政策主导。由于压产，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比大降，大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格虽然下跌，但仍能维持高价格水平，随着压产的范围扩大，铁矿压力将逐步加大，推荐远月做空机会。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿（01合约）、多成材（10合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：港口库存延续回落

27号，RU主力收盘13180（-5）元/吨，混合胶报价12025元/吨（-25），主力合约基差-205元/吨（+55）；前二十主力多头持仓84796（-8374），空头持仓126505（-5358），净空持仓41709（+3016）。

27号，NR主力收盘价10760（-15）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1665（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1655美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1595（-10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-435（-53）元/吨。截至7月23日：交易所总库存193886（+3271），交易所仓单177270（-880）。

原料：生胶片49.30（+0.67），杯胶44.80（+1.35），胶水44（+2.5），烟片53.27（+1.88）。

截止7月22日，国内全钢胎开工率为62.75%（+3.8%），国内半钢胎开工率为58.65%(+2.8%）。观点：昨天胶价延续冲高回落的走势，主要受到周边市场以及股指继续下挫的打压。截至上周末最新的港口库存延续下行趋势，因下游拿货的小幅回升以及进口量的减缓导致的。橡胶自身基本面变化不大，供需偏弱，但原料价格的企稳以及国内港口库存的持续下行，对价格下方仍有支撑。下半年的主线仍在海外需求，如果需求不能继续恢复，则供应端压力将在下半年得到凸显。预计胶价短期低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：API原油与成品油库存大幅下降

昨日API公布库存数据，原油、汽油与馏分油库存均出现大幅下降，尤其是汽油库存降幅近600万桶/日，这显示当前美国市场依然维持较为强劲的基本面，终端消费复苏依然能够吸收炼厂开工提升带来的新增成品油供应量，从近期美国交通拥堵指数和航班出行人数等高频指标来看，基本仍旧维持复苏态势，而反观亚太市场，需求的复苏依然相对缓慢，一方面是Delta病毒带来的新增感染人数持续增加，另一方面中国炼化行业的核查、SPR抛储政策性原因导致需求复苏缓慢，当前原油市场西强东弱的基本面格局仍在延续。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情恶化超预期

铜：美联储利率决议在即 市场或相对谨慎

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日随着盘面的持续走高，现货市场升贴水再度呈现下行之势，市场交投清淡难闻大量成交。早市平水铜对下月票始报于升水270元/吨，无奈下游畏高情绪严重，且临近月末，贸易长单进入尾声，市场难闻大量买盘，部分持货商欲逢高换现，调价至升水250-260元/吨试探市场反馈，尾盘听闻升水230-240元/吨流入市场依旧难闻大量成交。好铜市场货源偏紧，ENM等品牌报至升水310-330元/吨，CCC-P在升水340-350元/吨成交尚可，但贵溪铜由于依旧处于检修，报价可坚挺于升水360元/吨以上。湿法铜则在CMCC，Norilsk等品牌报价指引下报至升水150-160元/吨，其余差铜难以维持于升水200元/吨以上。铜价重新回到72000元/吨以上，下游难有接受度，市场大多驻足。

观点：昨日受月末头寸再平衡资金流和美债收益率下滑的影响，美元指数连续第二日下跌，而这给予了包括铜在内的有色金属一定支撑，铜价目前维持在7万2一线，不过基本面变化则仍然相对有限，并且在价格走高之际，下游补库的意愿也可能受到影响，并且目前美联储利率决议在即，故此市场或仍维持相对观望的态度。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：逸盛新材料台风原因短停后重启，福化检修逐步兑现

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表累库压力不大，快速累库节点推迟到9月；PX7-8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨，TA大厂前期超卖需回补，TA流动性偏紧叠加累库节点后移至9月。但目前PTA加工费已处于年内高位，亦需注意风险。（2）跨期：累库拐点再度延后，09合约交割前的累库时间相对不足，仓单快速注销，9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX新装置投产顺畅度。