Iron ore: Steel production continued to fall, and iron ore fluctuated at a low level.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, Ganggu.com announced the production and inventory of building materials and plates. From the perspective of output, both building materials and plates have experienced a continuous month-on-month decline. Affected by this data, iron ore futures began to fall in the afternoon, although they rebounded in the late trading, they were still weak. To the close, the main iron ore futures contract 2109 closed at 1,138 points, up 28 points from the previous day. In terms of spot, the imported iron ore quotations in the physical port stock market presented a mix of gains and losses in the afternoon session. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1360-1365, Yangdi Fines 1150-1160; Caofeidian PB fines 1360-1370, SSF 955-965; Tianjin Port PB fines 1380-1390, JMBF 1235-1245; Jiangyin Port PB fines 1430-1440.

On the whole, the current black series market is destined to be dominated by policies. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-tear ratio have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore from production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain high price levels. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of going short positions of the distant futures contract are recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (10 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The price of raw materials was stable, and the price of rubber continued to fluctuate.

On July 28, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,205 (+25) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,025 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -330 yuan/ton (-125); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 80,277 (-4,519) lots, the short position was 119,582 (-6,923) lots, and the net short position was 39,305 (-2,404) lots.

On July 28, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,845 (+85) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,680 (+15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,675 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (+10) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -424 (+11) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 23: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 193,886 (+3,271) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 177,270 (-880) lots.

Raw materials: The market is closed and there is no quotation. Sheet rubber 49.30 (0), cup lump 44.80 (0), latex 44 (0), RSS3 53.27 (0).

As of Jul 22, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.75% (+3.8%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 58.65% (+2.8%).

Opinion: The price of rubber continued to fluctuate yesterday. From the perspective of the spread between futures and spot prices, the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent. After the continuous decline of the price of latex in Thailand in the previous period, its price has stabilized recently. July to August is the seasonal rainy season in Thailand, and short-term raw material prices are still supportive. As of last weekend, due to a slight rebound in downstream acquisitions and a slowdown in imports, the latest port inventory continued its downward trend. The fundamentals of rubber itself have not changed much, and the supply and demand are weak. However, the stabilization of raw material prices and the continued decline of domestic port inventories still support the space below prices. The main line in the second half of the year is still overseas demand. If demand cannot continue to recover, the pressure on the supply side will be highlighted in the second half of the year. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short-term low position. The main logic of the second half of the year is still in overseas demand. If demand cannot continue to recover, pressure on the supply side will be highlighted in the second half of the year. The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate mainly at a low level in the short term.

Strategy: neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories continued to decline.

Yesterday, EIA announced inventory data: Similar to yesterday's API data, both crude oil and refined oil inventories declined. With reference to historical data, the operating rate of US refineries still has a certain upside. If the operating rate returns to about 100%, there is still room for nearly 2 million barrels per day to increase, and the actual room for improvement in refinery operating rate depends on the recovery of refined oil terminal consumption and refinery profits. We believe that the operating rate of US refineries can be increased by at least 5%. In addition, the recovery of demand in Latin American countries is also an important factor in driving refined oil exports. In addition, it is worth noting that in the EIA data of the past two months, the data of the balance sheet adjustment item is too high, indicating that the current EIA's weekly production data may be underestimated. In the future, we need to pay attention to the difference between monthly output and weekly output.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or the epidemic will worsen more than expected..

Copper: The Fed's interest rate decision is in line with expectations.

Spot: According to SMM news, yesterday's spot market premiums and discounts once again showed a slight downward trend. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper initially reported a premium of 250-260 yuan/ton to test the market sentiment, but it was actually difficult to find a large number of transactions. After the holders adjusted the price to a premium of 240 yuan/ton, the transaction only slightly improved. In the late trading session, holders regained their sentiment for supporting price, causing the premium and discount to return to around 250 yuan/ton. The price spread between domestically produced High-Grade Copper and imported High-Grade Copper was still widening. Due to the maintenance of Jinchuan and Jiangxi Copper, the price of domestically produced High-Grade Copper was firm at a premium of 330-350 yuan/ton. Brands such as ENM reported a premium of 290-310 yuan/ton, which was significantly cost-effective than domestically produced High-Grade Copper, so the market experienced some transactions. Hydro-Copper stood at a premium of 150-180 yuan/ton. However, due to the wide fluctuations at high market prices and the downstream acceptance was not high, buyers and sellers had large differences in prices, resulting in small numbers of transactions in the market.

Opinion: In the early hours of this morning, the Fed's interest rate decision kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. In the interest rate statement, it is stated that there are not enough conditions to initiate measures to reduce quantitative easing. Since then, Fed Chairman Powell also said at a press conference that the job market still has room for improvement before the scale of bond purchases is reduced, and this makes the US dollar index continue to show a downward trend. However, copper prices fluctuated and fell in the process. However, since the fundamental changes are still limited, and the Fed's monetary policy will not immediately show a marginal reduction, such conditions are relatively favorable for copper prices from a macro perspective. Therefore, the price of copper may still maintain a trend that is easy to rise but difficult to fall for the time being.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: TA maintenance is expected to continue to increase, and processing costs continue to be firm.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet has little pressure on inventory accumulation, and the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish; TA liquidity tend to be tight and the inventory accumulation time node was postponed to September. However, the current PTA processing fee has been at a high level during the year, and risks need to be paid attention to.

(2) Intertemporal: The inflection point of the inventory accumulation was postponed again. The inventory accumulation time before the delivery of the 09 contract was relatively insufficient, and the warehouse receipts of factories were also gradually cancelled; For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿:钢材产量连续回落，铁矿弱势整理

观点与逻辑：

昨日，钢谷网公布了建材、板材产量及库存情况，从产量上看，无论是建材还是板材均出现连续环比回落。受此数据影响，午后铁矿石期货开始回落，尾盘虽有回升，但仍处弱势。至收盘，铁矿石期货主力2109合约收于1138点，较前日上涨28点。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货午后价格涨跌互现。现青岛港PB粉1360-1365，杨迪粉1150-1160；曹妃甸PB粉1360-1370，超特粉955-965；天津港PB粉1380-1390，金布巴粉1235-1245；江阴港PB粉1430-1440，超特粉1000-1010。

整体来看，目前黑色行情主要由政策主导。由于压产，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比大降，大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格虽然下跌，但仍能维持高价格水平，随着压产的范围扩大，铁矿压力将逐步加大，推荐远月做空机会。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿（01合约）、多成材（10合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶： 原料价格稳定，胶价延续震荡

28号，RU主力收盘13205（+25）元/吨，混合胶报价12025元/吨（0），主力合约基差-330元/吨（-125）；前二十主力多头持仓80277（-4519），空头持仓119582（-6923），净空持仓39305（-2404）。

28号，NR主力收盘价10845（+85）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1680（+15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1675美元/吨（+20），印尼标胶1605（+10）美元/吨。主力合约基差-424（+11）元/吨。

截至7月23日：交易所总库存193886（+3271），交易所仓单177270（-880）。

原料：市场休市无报价。生胶片49.30（0），杯胶44.80（0），胶水44（0），烟片53.27（0）。

截止7月22日，国内全钢胎开工率为62.75%（+3.8%），国内半钢胎开工率为58.65%(+2.8%）。观点：昨天胶价延续震荡，期现价差角度来看，供需矛盾并不突出。泰国胶水价格在前期持续回落后，近期价格也有所企稳。7-8月份为泰国的季节性雨季，短期原料价格尚有支撑。截至上周末最新的港口库存延续下行趋势，因下游拿货的小幅回升以及进口量的减缓导致的。橡胶自身基本面变化不大，供需偏弱，但原料价格的企稳以及国内港口库存的持续下行，对价格下方仍有支撑。下半年的主线仍在海外需求，如果需求不能继续恢复，则供应端压力将在下半年得到凸显。预计胶价短期低位震荡为主。

策略：中性

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：EIA原油与成品油库存持续下降

昨日EIA公布库存数据，与昨日API数据类似，原油与成品油库存均出现下降，参照历史数据，美国炼厂开工率仍有一定的上行空间，如果要回到100%左右，那么仍有近200万桶/日的提升空间，而炼厂开工率实际的提升空间取决于成品油终端消费复苏情况以及炼厂利润，我们认为美国炼厂开工率仍有至少5%的提升空间，此外，拉美国家需求复苏拉动成品油出口也是重要的影响因素。另外，值得注意的是，在进两个月的EIA数据中，平衡表调整项的数据偏高，说明当前EIA的周度产量数据可能偏低估。未来需要关注月度产量与周度产量之间的差异。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或疫情恶化超预期

铜：美联储利率决议符合预期

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日现货市场升贴水重心再度呈现小幅下行之势，早市平水铜对下月票始报于升水250-260元/吨试探市场情绪，但实际难觅大量询盘，随着持货商调价至升水240元/吨后成交才小幅好转，尾盘持货商重拾挺价情绪，升贴水重新回到升水250元/吨附近。国产好铜和进口好铜价差依旧扩大，由于金川和江铜检修，国产好铜报价坚挺于升水330-350元/吨，反观ENM等品牌报至升水290-310元/吨，性价比明显高于国产好铜，市场听闻部分成交。湿法铜则企稳于升水150-180元/吨，盘面高位宽幅震荡，下游接受度不高，买卖双方对价格分歧较大，市场难闻大量成交。

观点：今日凌晨，美联储利率决议维持基准利率不变，而在利率声明中则是称，未有足够的条件启动削减量化宽松的举措，而此后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会上也同样称，在削减购债规模之前，就业市场仍有改善空间，而这使得美元指数继续呈现回落态势。不过铜价在此过程中则是出现震荡回落的态势，但是由于目前基本面变化仍然有限，而美联储的货币政策又至于立刻出现边际减少的情况，因此这样的条件就宏观层面而言，对于铜价相对有利，因此铜价暂时或仍维持易涨难跌的态势。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势一度偏强，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：TA检修预期继续增加，加工费持续坚挺

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表再度去库，快速累库节点推迟到9月；PX7-8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨，TA大厂前期超卖需回补，TA流动性偏紧叠加累库节点后移至9月。但目前PTA加工费已处于年内高位，亦需注意风险。（2）跨期：累库拐点再度延后，09合约交割前的累库时间相对不足，仓单快速注销，9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX新装置投产顺畅度。