Iron ore: The crude steel production limit policy is reconfirmed, and iron ore is ushering in a cold winter.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the Steel Union announced the production, sales and inventory status of the five major building materials commonly used in construction. In terms of output, the five major materials have seen a month-on-month decline for several consecutive weeks. Restricted production affected the price of iron ore to record lows. In the afternoon session, the policy on the adjustment of steel export tax rate was traded in advance by the market. Affected by the rise of the thread and hot-rolled coil end, although the iron ore rebounded in the later trading hours, it was difficult to change its weakness. To the close, the main iron ore futures contract 2109 closed at 1,115 points, down 23 points from the previous day. In terms of spot, the imported iron ore quotations in the physical port stock market fell 8-50 yuan/ton throughout the day. At present, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 1323, down 42; YangDi fines 1135 fell 25; Caofeidian PB fines 1320 fell 40, SSF 943 fell 14; Tianjin Port PB fines 1340 fell 50, JMBF 1235 fell 15; Jiangyin Port PB fines 1395 fell 45.

On the whole, the current black series market is destined to be dominated by policies. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand for scrap steel has shrunk sharply, and the month-on-month and year-on-tear ratio have both fallen sharply, which has greatly eased the pressure on iron ore from production restrictions. However, with the continuous deepening of production restrictions, the supply and demand of iron ore began to undergo a significant reversal. In the short term, the supply and demand of iron ore has not deteriorated significantly. Although the price has fallen, it can still maintain high price levels. As the scope of production restriction expands, the pressure on iron ore will gradually increase, and the opportunities of going short positions of the distant futures contract are recommended.

Strategy: None

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Cross-species: initiate a long position of coke and a short position of iron ore (01 contract); initiate a long position of thread and hot-rolled coil (10 contract) and a short position of iron ore (01 contract)

Inter-period: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The intensity of production restriction and the policy orientation at the thread and hot-rolled coil end may fall short of expectation;

2. The off-season demand performance of the thread and hot-rolled coil end is not as good as expected;

3. Shipping data may change drastically;

4. The epidemic may aggravate and so on.

Rubber: The price of latex has risen again, supporting the price of rubber.

On July 29, the most-active RU contract closed at 13,370 (+165) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,175 (+150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -445 yuan/ton (-110); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 76,273 (-4,004) lots, the short position was 110,555 (-9,027) lots, and the net short position was 34,282 (-5,023) lots.

On July 29, the most-active NR contract closed at 10,995 (+150) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,680 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,675 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,605 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -572 (-148) yuan/ton.

As of Jul 23: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 193,886 (+3,271) lots, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 177,270 (-880) lots.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 49.90 (+0.6), cup lump 45.30 (+0.5), latex 45.5 (+1.5), RSS3 53.39 (+0.12).

As of Jul 22, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.75% (+3.8%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 58.65% (+2.8%).

Opinion: Yesterday, rubber futures prices rebounded sharply, mainly boosted by the surrounding market atmosphere such as crude oil. At the same time, we saw that after the price of latex in Thailand dropped sharply in the previous period, it has experienced a significant rebound recently, which also has certain support for the price of rubber. The relative strength of NR prices may also indicate the recent improvement in tire demand on a week-on-week basis. As of last weekend, due to a slight rebound in downstream acquisitions and a slowdown in imports, the latest port inventory continued its downward trend. The fundamentals of rubber itself have not changed much, and the supply and demand are weak. However, the stabilization of raw material prices and the continued decline of domestic port inventories still support the space below prices. The main line in the second half of the year is still overseas demand. If demand cannot continue to recover, the pressure on the supply side will be highlighted in the second half of the year. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short-term low position. The main logic of the second half of the year is still in overseas demand. If demand cannot continue to recover, pressure on the supply side will be highlighted in the second half of the year. With the rebound of raw material prices, rubber prices are expected to continue to rebound, and investors can pay attention to the resistance of futures and spot spreads widening in the future.

Strategy: cautiously bullish, participate in the short term

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The discount of oil types related to Chinese demand has weakened significantly.

Recently, the discount of oil types related to Chinese demand has weakened significantly, such as ESPO, Castella, Johan Sverdrup, etc., especially the weak demand for geo-refining-related oil types, which is mainly dominated by policy factors, such as the recent inspections of crude oil quotas, taxation of private refineries and other fields, plus factors such as release of reserves. Among them, quotas are the biggest bottleneck restricting imports. This year, although China has adopted a series of policy combinations to make the oil market inclined to internal circulation. However, considering the consumption of inventories and the commissioning of more large private refining and chemical projects, in the medium term, the growth rate of China's crude oil imports will still rebound.

Strategy: neutrally bullish; go long positions of INE crude oil and short positions of Brent or WTI futures

Risk: The Iranian nuclear agreement may be reached quickly or the epidemic will worsen more than expected..

Copper: The U.S. dollar continues to fall, which is relatively favorable for copper prices.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, the State Reserve Bureau implemented the second round of reserve release yesterday. Most downstream players participated in the bidding, which led to limited spot market transactions and few large transactions in the market, but the holders unexpectedly maintained a positive sentiment of supporting price. In the morning session, Standard-Grade Copper began to report a premium of 280 yuan/ton to test the market sentiment, but the actual participants were limited, and there were few inquirers. It was not until the holders quickly adjusted the price to a premium of 260-270 yuan/ton that the market had a small number of transactions. The quotation of domestically produced High-Grade Copper was dragged down by the premium of imported High-Grade Copper such as CCC-P, ENM and other brands at 290-300 yuan/ton. As holders were unable to maintain the sentiment of supporting prices, the overall premium quotation was 290-330 yuan/ton. The quotation of Hydro-Copper also highlights the more obvious brand differences, and some poorer brands such as LPT even offer a premium of 130 yuan per ton. Because downstream players generally participated in auctions by the State Reserve, market trading activity was limited.

Opinion: The initial value of the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the second quarter was recorded at 6.50%, which was 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous value, but far less than the expected value of 8.50%. However, the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of the United States recorded 6.10%, a jump of 3.6 percentage points from the previous value. However, the US dollar index did not benefit from this and continued its previous weakness. This is undoubtedly a more favorable factor for copper prices, especially when the fundamental changes are relatively small.

In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, the global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term. Although the U.S. dollar has moved strongly after the interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft for future economic growth. In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to rise, coupled with the domestic implementation of reserve release, so the supply side has a relatively negative impact on copper prices. On the demand side, China’s current control of the epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand. However, due to the current market interference from the rumors of the Federal Reserve tapering and the possible tightening of central bank liquidity around the world, in general, we recommend that investors maintain a relatively neutral attitude.

Strategy:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: TA maintenance continues to increase, and processing costs are further pushed up.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of the full implementation of the maintenance, the PTA August balance sheet has little pressure on inventory accumulation, and the rapid inventory accumulation time node will be postponed to September; the inventory accumulation rate of PX from July to August was limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: cautiously bullish; TA liquidity tend to be tight and the inventory accumulation time node was postponed to September. However, the current PTA processing fee has been at a high level during the year, and risks need to be paid attention to.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 9-1 spread, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm, the strength of replenishment of terminal speculation, and the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical's new PX device into use.

铁矿：粗钢压产再确认，铁矿石迎来寒冬

观点与逻辑：

昨日，钢联公布了五大材的产销存情况，从产量上看，五大材连续数周出现环比回落。受压产影响铁矿价格连创新低。午后，关于钢材出口税率调整政策被市场提前交易，受成材拉涨，铁矿尾盘虽有回升，但是弱势难改。至收盘，铁矿石期货主力2109合约收于1115点，较前日下跌23点。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货全天价格下跌8-50。现青岛港PB粉1323跌42，杨迪粉1135跌25；曹妃甸PB粉1320跌40，超特粉943跌14；天津港PB粉1340跌50，金布巴粉1235跌15；江阴港1395跌45，杨迪粉1135跌8。

整体来看，目前黑色行情主要由政策主导。由于压产，迫使钢厂对废钢的需求大幅收缩，同、环比大降，大幅缓解了压产带给铁矿的压力，但随着压产的不断深入，铁矿供需开始发生明显逆转。短期，铁矿供需并未发生大幅恶化，价格虽然下跌，但仍能维持高价格水平，随着压产的范围扩大，铁矿压力将逐步加大，推荐远月做空机会。

策略：

单边：中期看空

跨期：无

跨品种：多焦炭空铁矿（01合约）、多成材（10合约）空铁矿石（01合约）

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

成材端限产压产的力度及政策导向不及预期，成材端淡季需求表现不及预期，发运数据大幅改变，疫情加重等。

橡胶：胶水价格重新上涨，支撑胶价

29号，RU主力收盘13370（+165）元/吨，混合胶报价12175元/吨（+150），主力合约基差-445元/吨（-110）；前二十主力多头持仓76273（-4004），空头持仓110555（-9027），净空持仓34282（-5023）。

29号，NR主力收盘价10995（+150）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1680（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1675美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1605（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-572（-148）元/吨。截至7月23日：交易所总库存193886（+3271），交易所仓单177270（-880）。

原料：生胶片49.90（+0.6），杯胶45.30（+0.5），胶水45.5（+1.5），烟片53.39（+0.12）。

截止7月22日，国内全钢胎开工率为62.75%（+3.8%），国内半钢胎开工率为58.65%(+2.8%）。观点：昨天橡胶期价大幅反弹，主要受原油等周边市场氛围的提振，同时，我们看到在泰国胶水前期大幅回落之后，近期有明显回升，对于胶价也有一定的支撑。NR价格的相对强势或也说明近期轮胎需求的环比改善。截至上周末最新的港口库存延续下行趋势，因下游拿货的小幅回升以及进口量的减缓导致的。橡胶自身基本面变化不大，需求环比改善，但短期改善或仍有限，供应增长势头维持不变。下半年的主线仍在海外需求，如果需求不能继续恢复，则供应端压力将在下半年得到凸显。在原料价格重新回升下，胶价有望延续反弹，关注后期期现价差拉大的阻力。

策略：谨慎偏多，短线参与。

风险：产量大幅增加，库存继续累积，需求大幅减少等。

原油：中国需求相关油种实货贴水表现偏弱

近期与中国需求相关的油种贴水显著走弱，如ESPO、卡斯特利亚、Johan Sverdrup等，尤其是地炼相关油种的需求偏弱，这主要是政策性因素主导的，如近期对原油配额、民营炼厂税收等领域的核查，叠加抛储等因素，而其中配额是制约进口的最大瓶颈，今年以来虽然中国通过一系列政策组合拳让石油市场倾向于内循环，但考虑到库存的消耗以及更多民营大炼化项目的投产，从中期来看，中国原油进口增速仍将会出现反弹。

策略：中性偏多，原油多头配置或者布伦特、WTI正套

风险：伊核协议快速达成或全球疫情恶化超预期

铜：美元持续回落 对铜价相对有利

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日国储局第二轮抛货，下游大多参与到抛储竞标中导致现货市场交投有限，难闻大量成交，但持货商意外维持挺价情绪。早市平水铜对下月票始报于升水280元/吨试探市场情绪，无奈实际参与者有限，询价者寥寥，持货商迅速调价至升水260-270元/吨后才略显成交。国产好铜报价受到进口好铜如CCC-P，ENM等品牌报在升水290-300元/吨拖累，持货商难以维持挺价情绪，整体保持升水290-330元/吨。湿法铜报价同样凸显较为明显的品牌差异，部分较差品牌如LPT甚至可听闻升水130元/吨货源，但整体报至升水150-200元/吨，但下游普遍参与国储竞拍，市场交投活跃度有限。

观点：美国二季度实际GDP年化季率初值录得6.50%，高于前值0.1个百分点，但远不及预期值8.50%；不过美国二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值录得6.10%，较前值跳涨3.6个百分点，不过美元指数并未由此而获益，依然延续此前走弱的态势，而这对于铜价而言，尤其在当下基本面变化相对较小的情况下，无疑是较为有利的因素。

中长线看，宏观方面，全球央行短时内仍将继续维持目前超宽松的货币以及财政政策，虽然此次议息会议后，美元走势也一度相对强劲，但很大程度上也是对于未来经济增长的透支。基本面方面，目前TC价格持续回升，加之国内抛储传言落地，故此供应端对铜价影响较为负面，而需求端，中国目前对于新冠疫情的控制依然十分成功，且新能源新基建板块将持续对铜需求形成拉动，因此总体而言，目前维持相对中性的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：TA检修继续增加，加工费进一步推高

平衡表展望：检修全兑现背景下，PTA8月平衡表无累库压力，快速累库节点推迟到9月；PX7-8月累库速率有限。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎看涨， TA流动性偏紧叠加累库节点后移至9月。但目前PTA加工费已处于年内高位，亦需注意风险。（2）跨期：9-1价差观望。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，终端投机补库的持续性，浙石化PX新装置投产顺畅度。